Bayesian Surrogate Modeling Natural Gas Price Uncertainty in a California Power System Test Case
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Energy - Natural gas↗
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Scalability analysis of heavy-duty gas turbines using data-driven machine learning
With the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems, the role of flexible power generation technologies like gas turbines (GT) in rapid grid balancing remains crucial. This sustained importance underscores the need for scaled and precise modeling of GT to ensure effective integration within evolving energy frameworks. While physics-driven GT models integrate thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and combustion principles, they often rely on approximate mathematical representations to accommodate scaling that may not capture the actual complex dynamics for GTs and inertial effects associated to GTs with different ratings. In this study, a data-driven model is proposed using machine learning (ML) techniques to conduct GT scalability analysis and performance evaluation with high accuracy. The ML model, trained on data from various operating conditions and performance parameters, aims to uncover intricate relationships and patterns, resembling GT characteristics at different scales (ratings). The model is developed to capture complex system interaction and to adapt to changing operational scenarios at different capacities, providing valuable insights of power system dynamics. In this study, the real-time digital simulator platform was employed to generate training data for the ML model and assess its dynamic characteristics. The ultimate objective was to develop a detailed modeling framework based on governing equations and data-driven ML capable of predicting key performance indicators, in thermal systems such as GTs, including power output, speed, fuel consumption, and exhaust temperature under diverse operating conditions at different scales. The developed ML framework demonstrated high accuracy, with mean relative errors for GT power prediction, reference speed, exhaust temperature, and compressor pressure ratio (CPR) parameters consistently below 0.1% across typical load fluctuation scenarios. Maximum deviations were limited to approximately 0.5 K for exhaust temperature and 0.009 for CPR, underscoring the model’s ability to replicating dynamic GT behavior with high precision. The adaptability of the ML model enables its application across diverse operational conditions and its extension to other thermal systems. By leveraging advanced ML techniques, this study presents a robust and scalable modeling framework that enhances GT simulation precision, facilitating improved integration into evolving power systems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Impact of the Exciter and Governor Parameters on Forced Oscillations
In recent years, the frequency of forced oscillation events due to control system malfunctions or improper parameter settings has increased. Tuning the parameters of exciters and governor models is crucial for maintaining power system stability. Traditional simulation studies typically involve small transient disturbances or step changes to find optimal parameter sets, but existing optimization algorithms often fall short in fine-tuning for forced oscillations. Identifying the sensitive parameters within these control models is essential for ensuring stability during large, sustained disturbances. This study focuses on identifying these critical exciter and governor model parameters by analyzing their influence on sustained forced oscillations. Using Kundur’s two-area system, we analyze common exciter models such as SCRX, ESST1A, and AC7B, along with governor models like GAST, HYGOV, and GGOV1, utilizing PSS®E software version 34. Sustained forced oscillations are injected at generator-1 of area-1, with individual parameter changes dynamically simulated. By considering a local oscillation frequency of 1.4 Hz and an inter-area oscillation mode of 0.25 Hz, we analyze the impact of each parameter change on the magnitude and frequency of forced oscillations as well as on active and reactive power outputs. This novel approach highlights the most influential parameters of each tested model—such as exciter, governor, and turbine gains, as well as time constant parameters—on the impact of forced oscillations. Based on our findings, the sensitive parameters of each tested model are ranked. These would provide valuable insights for industry operators to fine-tune control settings during oscillation events, ultimately enhancing system stability.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Grey-Box System Identification of Grid-Forming Inverters
This paper demonstrates the use of grey-box system identification methods for simplifying and understanding the nonlinear power dynamics of grid-forming inverters (GFMs). The power and frequency outputs of complex high-order GFM models are fed into system identification software in order to fit them to a predetermined LTI system and learn system parameters such as (synthetic) inertia and droop constants. The same process is then run for a high-order synchronous generator model, and the outputs are fit to the same set of LTI equations. Simulation of a network of GFM inverters with diverse control architecture is also performed for the same process. The intent is threefold: first, to demonstrate the appropriateness of unified LTI models for describing the power and frequency dynamics of individual resources and connected networks, in order to facilitate analysis of larger heterogeneous networked systems; second, to discover the relationship between internal control parameters of GFMs and their externally observed values; and third, to validate that grey-box data-driven system identification techniques can be a valuable tool to discover the values of important parameters in the absence of explicit vendor models.
analytical models↗
Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices
As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
EVs@Scale: NextGen Profiles EVSE Characterization 2025
As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the Next-Generation Profiles (NextGen Profiles [NGP]) project presents analysis and results from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE) characterization involves testing over a wide range of DC charging currents and voltages during nominal and off-nominal conditions. This testing allows for a better understanding of the impact that high-power charging will have on the electric grid. A common set of standard test plans, procedures, and data requirements were applied to the characterization in this document with minor updates and improvements. This report covers all conductive characterization activities performed between October 2024 and September 2025 on the Delta Electronics 350KW Electric Vehicle Charging System, consisting of power cabinet model EIDN-U350KTA01 and dispenser model EIDD-U350SSUUAEG-350.Key Findings include: Output regulation, Efficiency and power factor, Load management, Grid Resilience, Smart Charge Management (SCM) performance, Thermal control system performance, Multi-port simultaneous charging performance, and Selected performance comparisons with other EVSEs characterized in the NextGen Profiles project. Hot and cold temperature testing was not conducted on the Delta 350KW due to laboratory limitations. Future research could include continued testing the Delta hardware under off-nominal temperature conditions including multi-port/multi-session simultaneous charge testing, in addition to collecting data on other high-power conductive chargers to augment.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Preliminary Evaluation of Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Concept of Operations
An initial thermal power dispatch (TPD) concept of operations was evaluated that couples a nuclear power plant to a nearby hydrogen production plant. GSE Systems’ generic pressurized water reactor full-scope simulator was modified with a TPD model comprised of a thermal power extraction and delivery system. A prototype human-system interface (HSI) was developed to interact with the TPD model and allow participants to execute the basic operating scenarios for normal operations. Four retired operators performed the evaluation, and due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, the original in-person experimental design was restructured to support a remote participator evaluation using a web meeting platform. Data from operator feedback, observations from the research team, and quantitative survey responses revealed that the initial TPD concept of operations is feasible. The operators were comfortable with the engineered system and HSI and could manage it without adverse impacts to reactor power, plant safety, or equipment. Findings are discussed in terms of both the TPD system design and HSI performance.
human factors↗
Entropy-Infused Deep Learning Loss Function for Capturing Extreme Values in Wind Power Forecasting
Extreme scenarios in wind power generation occur with higher frequency and larger magnitude in the recent years due to the ever-increasing extreme meteorological factors. Accurate forecasting of the occurrence of extreme values in wind power generation is of great concern to ensure reliable power system operation. Recently, deep learning models have surged in popularity for wind power forecasting, with the mean squared error (MSE) loss function being commonly used. However, the MSE loss function, being sensitive to extreme values, disproportionately penalizes larger errors, cannot adequately capture the extreme values present in wind energy data, and novel loss functions have seldom been tailored for wind power forecasting. To this end, in this paper, we introduce a novel loss function specifically crafted to capture extreme values in wind power forecasting. The experimental results with four fundamental deep learning methods on open source wind power dataset validate that the new loss function is efficient and superior in all cases compared to MSE in capturing extreme values while maintaining forecasting performance.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Microwave dielectric properties of LiNbO$_{\mathbf{3}}$ and AlN at millikelvin temperatures and single-photon power
Electro-optic materials are paramount to achieving efficient and reliable microwave-optical signal transduction in the quantum regime. It is of great interest to investigate the performance of these materials at the quantum level and at cryogenic temperatures to assess their compatibility with superconducting circuit-based quantum systems. In this work, we present a detailed study of the microwave electric properties of single-crystal bulk LiNbO$_{3}$ and AlN at millikelvin temperatures and at the single-photon level. We characterize the materials' dielectric loss tangent throughout a wide range of electromagnetic power levels in a temperature range from a few tens of millikelvin to above 1~K. Our findings indicate that both materials' loss tangent behavior is consistent with the two-level system model up to a certain power threshold, beyond which it increases logarithmically with power. This suggests that two-level system loss mechanisms dominate at the single-photon level, while additional loss channels become relevant at higher powers and temperatures.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Towards Next-Generation Urban Decision Support Systems through AI-Powered Construction of Scientific Ontology Using Large Language Models—A Case in Optimizing Intermodal Freight Transportation
The incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models into various optimization systems is on the rise. However, addressing complex urban and environmental management challenges often demands deep expertise in domain science and informatics. This expertise is essential for deriving data and simulation-driven insights that support informed decision-making. In this context, we investigate the potential of leveraging the pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to create knowledge representations for supporting operations research. By adopting ChatGPT-4 API as the reasoning core, we outline an applied workflow that encompasses natural language processing, Methontology-based prompt tuning, and Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), to automate the construction of scenario-based ontologies using existing research articles and technical manuals of urban datasets and simulations. From these ontologies, knowledge graphs can be derived using widely adopted formats and protocols, guiding various tasks towards data-informed decision support. The performance of our methodology is evaluated through a comparative analysis that contrasts our AI-generated ontology with the widely recognized pizza ontology, commonly used in tutorials for popular ontology software. We conclude with a real-world case study on optimizing the complex system of multi-modal freight transportation. Our approach advances urban decision support systems by enhancing data and metadata modeling, improving data integration and simulation coupling, and guiding the development of decision support strategies and essential software components.
96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
Representative Period Selection for Robust Capacity Expansion Planning in Low-carbon Grids
With the increasing urgency to decarbonize power systems, while mitigating extreme events, capacity expansion models can play a vital role in reliably planning the expansion of power systems and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Optimizing capacity expansion generally involves selecting surrogate representative days from forecasts of load and the generation profiles of variable renewable energy resources. To properly select those representative days, we propose a novel input-based approach in combination with the k-means clustering algorithm that utilize three unique operational inputs: load shedding, renewable curtailment, and transmission congestion. The proposed method allows for more robust and cost-effective capacity planning. The method is validated using a capacity expansion model and a production cost model based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO)'s decarbonization goals, and results in reduced costs and drastically lower load shedding.
Anderson, Osten P.↗
Open Power System Datasets and Open Simulation Engines: A Survey Toward Machine Learning Applications
A major factor behind the success of machine learning (ML) models in multiple domains is the availability and accessibility of large, labeled, and well-organized datasets for training and benchmarking. In comparison, power grid datasets face three major challenges: (i) real-world data is often restricted by regulatory constraints, privacy reasons, or security concerns, making it difficult to obtain and work with; (ii) synthetic datasets, which are created to address these limitations, often have incomplete information and are released using specialized tools, making them inaccessible to the broader community; and, (iii) input-output datasets are difficult to generate through simulation for non-experts because open-source simulators are not known outside the power system community. This survey addresses these challenges by serving as an entry point to publicly available datasets and simulators for researchers venturing in this area. We review the current landscape of open-source power network data, machine models, consumer demand profiles, renewable generation data, and inverter models. We also examine open-source power system simulators, which are crucial for generating high-quality, high-fidelity power grid datasets. We aim to provide a foundation for overcoming data scarcity and advance towards a structured web of datasets and simulators to support the development of ML for power systems.
42 ENGINEERING↗
GRIDAPPSD/distopf (33583-E)
DistOPF is an open-source Python package providing a three-phase, asymmetric optimal power flow (OPF) tool specifically designed for distribution systems. The key inventive features include: - Asymmetrical 3-phase OPF modeling for distribution systems with unbalanced phases - Comprehensive control optimization supporting both active (P) and reactive (Q) power control variables - Built-in visualization and validation tools - Standard test system benchmarking platform for algorithm development and comparison - Modular CSV-based input system using Pandas DataFrames for flexible model specification - Standard power distribution model importer enabling direct conversion from CIM and OpenDSS format to optimization-ready models - Multiple solve interface compatibility (PYOMO, CVXPY, SciPy) with automatic solver selection based on problem type
Gray, Nathan [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
Bayesian Surrogates for Modeling Natural Gas Price Uncertainty in a Realistic California Power System Test Case
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Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
A Hierarchical OPF Algorithm with Improved Gradient Evaluation in Three-Phase Networks
Linear approximation commonly used in solving alternating-current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) simplifies the system models but incurs accumulated voltage errors in large power networks. Such errors will make the primal-dual type gradient algorithms converge to solutions with voltage violation. In this paper, we improve a recent hierarchical OPF algorithm that rested on primal-dual gradients evaluated with a linearized distribution power flow model. Specifically, we propose a more accurate gradient evaluation method based on an unbalanced three-phase nonlinear distribution power flow model to mitigate the errors arising from linearization. The resultant gradients feature a blocked structure that enables our development of an improved hierarchical primal-dual algorithm to solve the OPF problem. Numerical results on the IEEE 123-bus test feeder and a 4,518-node test feeder show that the proposed method can enhance voltage safety at comparable computational efficiency with the linearized algorithm.
approximation algorithms↗
Co-Simulation of PSS/E, OpenDSS, and PSCAD for Power Systems Stability Analysis With Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint
The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is reshaping the dynamic behavior of power systems. IEEE standard 1547-2018 suggests that distributed energy resources (DERs) should provide grid services such as voltage and frequency supports. On the other hand, dynamic events caused by IBRs such as sub-synchronous oscillation have been reported. These developments necessitate improvement in the current modeling capabilities to better understand the interdependencies within power systems. These include interactions between transmission and distribution systems, among IBRs themselves, and between IBRs and conventional resources. In this paper, we present a co-simulation model integrating PSS/E, OpenDSS, and PSCAD to analyze IBR impacts on the stability of transmission and distribution systems. A key challenge in developing a co-simulation model is ensuring interoperability among different simulators (interfacing and data flow) while maintaining accurate results. Using the developed model, we simulate the impact of IBRs on power systems in two test cases: 1) fault ride through (FRT) capability during a generation trip contingency; 2) IBR-induced sub-synchronous oscillation. The results show the effectiveness of the co-simulation model.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Beyond Capacity Credits: Adaptive Stress Period Planning for Evolving Power Systems
This paper combines and applies concepts from several researchers to outline an alternative framework to plan power systems for resource adequacy needs, which we call Adaptive Stress Period Planning (ASPP). It first provides background information regarding least-cost planning objectives and the challenge of balancing an increasing need for model representation with computational intensity as power systems evolve in complexity. Next, it motivates the opportunity for a new paradigm by outlining challenges of frameworks in use today that rely on aggregate capacity heuristics (i.e., capacity credits and planning reserve margins). Subsequently, it lays out main process details of ASPP, which more directly represents spatial and temporal dynamics of power systems in a capacity expansion model with a process to adaptively select risk periods. The paper concludes with a summary of the approach, its benefits, and opportunities for future work.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty
Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗