Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Piston manometer as an absolute standard for vacuum-gauge calibration.

Determination of the total pressure in a calibration volume by measuring the force on a thin circular disk, of accurately known area, that is freely suspended in a hole in the container wall, so that the disk is substantially flush with the wall. The disk almost fills the hole, so that there is a narrow annular gap. A continuous flow of calibrating gas, injected into the container in order to maintain a desired pressure, passes through the annular gap to a diffusion pump. The ratio of pressures on the two faces of the disk is of the order of 100:1, so that downstream pressure need be known only nominally in order to deduce the upstream surface. Force on the disk is measured by a balance that is calibrated in situ with dead weights. In one arrangement, pressures in the range from 10 to 500 microtorr were measured with an estimated probable error of (1 microtorr + 1%).

Warshawsky, I.↗

Solar activity geomagnetic field and terrestrial weather

Spectral analysis is used as an independent test of the reported association between interplanetary-magnetic-field structure and terrestrial weather. Spectra of the Ap geomagnetic activity index and the vorticity area index for the years from 1964 to 1970 are examined for common features that may be associated with solar-related phenomena, specifically for peaks in the power spectra of both time series with periods near 27.1 days. The spectra are compared in three ways, and the largest peak with the smallest probability estimate is found to occur at a period of 27.49 days. This result is considered to be statistically significant at the 98% level. It is concluded that the period derived from the Ap spectrum is related to solar rotation and that the analysis provides supporting evidence for a connection between the vorticity area index and solar activity.

Knight, J. W.↗

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Evaluation of spectral channels and wavelength regions for separability of agricultural cover types

The spectral channels were evaluated as well as wavelength regions; visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared were evaluated with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P sub c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4 to 11.7 micrometers acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on P sub c was given. Values of P sub c for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels were also given. The overall values of P sub c were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗

Evaluation of wavelength groups for discrimination of agricultural cover types

Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels, in the wavelength range 0.46 to 11.7 mm, acquired in July 1971 for three flightlines, were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. These twelve spectral channels were divided into four wavelength groups (W1, W2, W3 and W4), each consisting of three wavelength channels -- with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P sub c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. The same analysis was also done for the data acquired in August, to investigate the effect of time on these results. The effect of deletion of each of the wavelength groups on P sub C in the subsets of one to nine channels, is given. Values of P sub C for all possible combinations of wavelength groups, in the subsets of one to eleven channels are also given.

Kumar, R.↗

Evaluation of spectral channels and wavelength regions for separability of agricultural cover types

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spectral channel as well as wavelength regions - visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared - with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (P-c) in discriminating agricultural cover types. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4 to 11.7 micron acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines were analysed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on P-c is given. Values of P-c for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels are also given. The overall values of P-c were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗

Separability of agricultural cover types in spectral channels and wavelength regions

Spectral channels and wavelength regions (visible, near infrared, middle infrared and thermal infrared) were evaluated with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (Pc) in discriminating agricultural cover types. Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4 to 11.7 microns acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines, were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August, 1971, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on Pc is given. Values of Pc for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels are also given. The overall values of Pc were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗

Approximate maximum likelihood decoding of block codes

Approximate maximum likelihood decoding algorithms, based upon selecting a small set of candidate code words with the aid of the estimated probability of error of each received symbol, can give performance close to optimum with a reasonable amount of computation. By combining the best features of various algorithms and taking care to perform each step as efficiently as possible, a decoding scheme was developed which can decode codes which have better performance than those presently in use and yet not require an unreasonable amount of computation. The discussion of the details and tradeoffs of presently known efficient optimum and near optimum decoding algorithms leads, naturally, to the one which embodies the best features of all of them.

Greenberger, H. J.↗

Procedures for estimating the frequency of commercial airline flights encountering high cabin ozone levels

Three analytical problems in estimating the frequency at which commercial airline flights will encounter high cabin ozone levels are formulated and solved: namely, estimating flight-segment mean levels, estimating maximum-per-flight levels, and estimating the maximum average level over a specified flight interval. For each problem, solution procedures are given for different levels of input information - from complete cabin ozone data, which provides a direct solution, to limited ozone information, such as ambient ozone means and standard deviations, with which several assumptions are necessary to obtain the required estimates. Each procedure is illustrated by an example case calculation that uses simultaneous cabin and ambient ozone data obtained by the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program. Critical assumptions are discussed and evaluated, and the several solutions for each problem are compared. Example calculations are also performed to illustrate how variations in lattitude, altitude, season, retention ratio, flight duration, and cabin ozone limits affect the estimated probabilities.

Holdeman, J. D.↗

Evaluation of wavelength groups for discrimination of agricultural cover types

Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels, in the wavelength range 0.46 to 11.7 microns, acquired in July, 1971, for three flightlines, were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. These twelve spectral channels were divided into four wavelength groups (W1, W2, W3 and W4), each consisting of three wavelength groups - with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification (Pc) - in discriminating agricultural cover types. The same analysis was also done for the data acquired in August, to investigate the effect of time on these results. The effect of deletion of each of the wavelength groups on Pc, in the subsets of one to nine channels, is given. Values of Pc for all possible combinations of wavelength groups, in the subsets of one to eleven channels, are also given.

Kumar, R.↗

Diagrammatic theory of transition of pendulum like systems

Orbit-orbit and spin-orbit gravitational resonances are analyzed using the model of a rigid pendulum subject to both a time-dependent periodic torque and a constant applied torque. First, a descriptive model of passage through resonance is developed from an examination of the polynomial equation that determines the extremes of the momentum variable. From this study, a probability estimate for capture into libration is derived. Second, a lowest order solution is constructed and compared with the solution obtained from numerical integration. The steps necessary to systematically improve this solution are also discussed. Finally, the effect of a dissipative term in the pendulum equation is analyzed.

Yoder, C. F.↗

Separability of agricultural cover types in spectral channels and wavelength regions

This study was a continuation of a more complete evaluation of the spectral channels as well as wavelength regions - visible, near infrared, middle infrared, and thermal infrared - with respect to their estimated probability of correct classification Pc in discriminating agricultural cover types reported previously by Kumar and Silva (1977). Multispectral scanner data in twelve spectral channels in the wavelength range of 0.4-11.7 microns acquired in the middle of July for three flightlines were analyzed by applying automatic pattern recognition techniques. The same analysis was performed for the data acquired in the middle of August 1971, over the same three flightlines, to investigate the effect of time on the results. The effect of deletion of each spectral channel as well as each wavelength region on Pc is given. Values of Pc for all possible combinations of wavelength regions in the subsets of one to twelve spectral channels are also given. The overall values of Pc were found to be greater for the data of the middle of August than the data of the middle of July.

Kumar, R.↗

Semiempirical hot atom theory. I - Initialization and application

A semiempirical approach to the modeling of the kinetics of reaction systems containing both hot and nonhot atoms is proposed. The approach is based on the probabilistic kinetic theory of hot-atom reactions formulated by Wolfgang (1963), with transmission probabilities estimated for a rectangular potential barrier for hot-atom and nonhot-atom reactions. A computational scheme for determining product concentrations following hot and nonhot reactions in a system containing photolytically produced hot atoms is then applied to the DBr + CH4 and HBr + CD4 hot hydrogen atom systems studied by Martin and Willard (1964), and good agreement is obtained between theoretical and experimental results.

Aronowitz, S.↗

Program risk analysis handbook

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

Batson, R. G.↗

An overview of reliability methods in mechanical and structural design

An evaluation is made of modern methods of fast probability integration and Monte Carlo treatment for the assessment of structural systems' and components' reliability. Fast probability integration methods are noted to be more efficient than Monte Carlo ones. This is judged to be an important consideration when several point probability estimates must be made in order to construct a distribution function. An example illustrating the relative efficiency of the various methods is included.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Gaussian maximum likelihood and contextual classification algorithms for multicrop classification

The paper reviews some of the ways in which context has been handled in the remote-sensing literature, and additional possibilities are introduced. The problem of computing exhaustive and normalized class-membership probabilities from the likelihoods provided by the Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier (to be used as initial probability estimates to start relaxation) is discussed. An efficient implementation of probabilistic relaxation is proposed, suiting the needs of actual remote-sensing applications. A modified fuzzy-relaxation algorithm using generalized operations between fuzzy sets is presented. Combined use of the two relaxation algorithms is proposed to exploit context in multispectral classification of remotely sensed data. Results on both one artificially created image and one MSS data set are reported.

Di Zenzo, Silvano↗

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗

Certain and possible rules for decision making using rough set theory extended to fuzzy sets

Uncertainty may be caused by the ambiguity in the terms used to describe a specific situation. It may also be caused by skepticism of rules used to describe a course of action or by missing and/or erroneous data. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic need to be developed. Although, statistics may be the best tool available for handling likelihood, it is not always adequate for dealing with knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Inadequacies caused by estimating probabilities in statistical processes can be alleviated through use of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Fuzzy set theory is another tool used to deal with uncertainty where ambiguous terms are present. Other methods include rough sets, the theory of endorsements and nonmonotonic logic. J. Grzymala-Busse has defined the concept of lower and upper approximation of a (crisp) set and has used that concept to extract rules from a set of examples. We will define the fuzzy analogs of lower and upper approximations and use these to obtain certain and possible rules from a set of examples where the data is fuzzy. Central to these concepts will be the idea of the degree to which a fuzzy set A is contained in another fuzzy set B, and the degree of intersection of a set A with set B. These concepts will also give meaning to the statement; A implies B. The two meanings will be: (1) if x is certainly in A then it is certainly in B, and (2) if x is possibly in A then it is possibly in B. Next, classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification is well externally definable then it is well internally definable, and if it is poorly externally definable then it is poorly internally definable, thus generalizing a result of Grzymala-Busse. Finally, some ideas of how to define consensus and group options to form clusters of rules will be given.

Dekorvin, Andre↗