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At least 145 records · Page 8

Optimization of Mitigating System Performance Index to Improve Nuclear Power Plant Safety and Efficiency

MSPI (Mitigation System Performance Index) is one of the risk-informed, plant-specific performance indicators of NRC’s Reactor Oversight Process. MSPI is used by the regulator and nuclear industry to monitor and assess the performance of plant mitigating systems. In this project, a calculation tool has been developed by incorporating the plant operation data, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) data, and industry baseline values to automate the calculation process of MSPI and the generation of the report. This is the first stage in an effort to optimize the MSPI through advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to improve nuclear power plant safety and efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model

Geologic carbon storage is one of the promising strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing the emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a systems-level stochastic analysis tool called the open source integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to estimate and manage the risk of containment loss at a geological carbon sequestration site. NRAP-Open-IAM contains several wellbore leakage model components that estimate the fluid leak rate that may occur through compromised legacy wells due to the increase in pressure resulting from CO 2 injection activities. Coupled to a reservoir component model, these components estimate the leakage of CO 2 and/or brine from a storage reservoir to overlying aquifer layers and the atmosphere through legacy wells. This report presents the theoretical framework and quality testing of the multisegmented wellbore reduced-order model. The model allows for segmenting of the legacy wells passing through the overlying stratigraphy into several intervals to simulate a site’s specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. For quality assurance, the analytical model is validated against numerical reservoir flow simulations for single and multiple aquifer(s) models. The results indicate that the model accurately predicts the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well over time. A detailed description of the model helps users to understand the model and provides a basis for future improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum

After the Fukushima Daiichi Accident, the safety features such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) for existing nuclear fleets are being investigated by the US Department of Energy under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This research is being conducted to quantify the risk-benefit of these safety features. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA)-based response-surface approach has been presented to quantify the FLEX and ATF benefits by estimating the risk associated with each option. ATFs with multilayered silicon carbide (SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum, and chromium-coated zirconium cladding were considered in this study. While these ATF candidates perform better than the current zirconium cladding (Zr), they may introduce additional failure modes in some operating conditions. The fuel failure analysis modules (FAMs) were developed to investigate ATF performance. The dynamic risk assessments were performed using RAVEN, a DPRA tool, coupled with RELAP5 and FAMs. A cumulative distribution function-based index provided a mean of comparing the benefits of safety enhancements. For medium break loss of coolant accidents, FLEX operational timing window for each fuel type was estimated. Among these ATF candidates, SiC-type ATF was the most beneficial candidate for an increased safety margin than Zr-based fuel and was found to complement FLEX strategies in terms of risk and coping time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays: Debris Modeling, Detection,& Mitigation (Task 1)

The statement of project objectives for this task was: develop tools, methods and models to assess, and mitigate the risk of damage to MHK infrastructure from woody debris. Develop the capability to detect woody debris using sonar and/or physical methods for purposes of characterizing debris statistics in river (at UAF’s Tanana River Test Site) and near-shore wave (at Yakutat, AK) environments and to activate debris mitigation measures. Develop debris impact risk maps and tables using statistics on debris size, geometry, type, prevalence, mobility and location. Improve and apply the COUPi discrete element method (DEM) to develop models of debris movement and impact on MHK infrastructure to evaluate risk of damage, and interference, to operations from debris. The proposed final deliverable for the task was a set of tools or techniques for providing estimates of the probability of debris impact, and resulting impact forces, on MHK infrastructure as a function of debris size, type, wave regime, and current velocity. Such estimates are required to assess damage risks to operational MHK infrastructure.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Established Regulatory Limits for Surface Water and Groundwater

The regulatory limits for surface water and groundwater contained in this database comprise chemical-specific preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) based on potential Applicable or Relevant and Appropriate Requirements (ARARs). These values should be used in conjunction with PRGs based on risk assessment to ensure that the PRGs for a site meet the residual risk requirements for protection of human health and the environment in the National Oil and Hazardous Substance Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP). In some cases, the values presented in this database may be To-Be-Considered (TBC) Guidance because these values are superseded by site-specific state requirements. ARARs are available for the Federal government, California, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin. The dataset provides maximum contaminant levels for drinking water and water quality criteria for fresh and marine environments based on acute and chronic exposures. Users can select ARAR sources, drinking water standards and water quality standards, individual chemicals, and retrieve results in tabular or spreadsheet formats for analysis. ARARs are derived from authoritative sources, including federal and state government agencies. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning, with tools for benchmarking against promulgated standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.

Stewart, Debra [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

V-INT: Automated Vulnerability Intelligence and Risk Assessment

The project team, including the University of Arkansas (UA) as the lead, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock (UALR), Network Perception (NP), and Bastazo, has successfully researched, developed, and demonstrated the V-INT toolset, and also integrated it into the commercial products of NP (i.e., NP-View) and Bastazo (i.e., Spartan). The end product is a cybersecurity software tool for energy utilities that can automatically assess the risks of software vulnerabilities in an organization’s assets considering the organization’s firewall policies. It allows security operators to identify the small portion of vulnerabilities that poses true threats to their system (i.e., those that are not protected by firewall policies) and prioritize the mitigation of these vulnerabilities to minimize risks. It also allows security operators to identify the vulnerability-induced attack paths under their organization’s firewall policy, providing effective decision supports for mitigating potential attacks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Identifying University Chemicals That Pose Security Risks: A Simple Qualitative Approach

Various laboratory-focused tools and methodologies for completing a safety risk assessment have been published, yet few similar resources to address chemical security exist. Herein, we describe a chemical security risk assessment case study at a university in a developing country. In this case study, we demonstrate a chemical security risk assessment for a university chemistry department, using an original inventory of 645 entries which was condensed to 295 chemicals after removing duplicates and erroneous entries. We then prioritized to highlight 83 chemicals of interest based on hazardous or dual-use properties that could lead to unacceptable consequences. We further refined to a list of 34 high-risk chemicals that required action, 48 chemicals that may need further justification and consideration for additional protection, and 1 chemical that did not need further consideration for additional protection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Tai Chi Training in Cardiorespiratory Fitness of Elderly People

Objectives. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of Tai Chi on cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in elderly people using meta-analysis. Methods. This study used seven electronic databases and data retrieved from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the role of Tai Chi on CRF in the elderly. All these 24 RCTs were screened and selected from 7 literature databases. The Stata 11.2 software (StataCorp, USA) was used for the meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and bias test, while the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool was used for the assessment of the risk of bias (RoB). 4 researchers independently participated in sample selection, data extraction, and RoB assessment. Results. Following the inclusion criteria, 24 eligible studies were included in our analysis. The meta-analysis indicated that Tai Chi practice significantly increased the maximum rate of oxygen consumption (VO2 max) (weighted mean difference (WMD) = 3.76, 95% CI: 1.25 to 6.26, P < 0.1 ), leading to an overall reduction in the heart rate (HR) (WMD = −1.84, 95% CI: −2.04 to −1.63, P ≤ 0.001 ) and an increase in the O2 pulse (WMD = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.60 to 1.28, P ≤ 0.001 ) in individuals who practiced Tai Chi regularly compared with those who did not. The subgroup analysis suggested that overall in those who practiced Tai Chi, males (WMD = 1.48, 95% CI: 0.85 to 2.12, P ≤ 0.001 ) had higher O2 pulse than females (WMD = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.33 to 1.12, P ≤ 0.001 ). The subgroup analysis also showed an increase in the vital capacity (VC) (WMD = 316.05, 95% CI: 239.74 to 392.35, P ≤ 0.001 ) in individuals practicing Tai Chi. When the samples were further stratified by Tai Chi practicing time, the subgroup analysis suggested that individuals practicing Tai Chi over a period of 24 weeks showed no significant difference in VC (WMD = 82.95, 95% CI: -98.34 to 264.23, P = 0.370 ), while those practicing Tai Chi over a period of 48 weeks showed a significant increase (WMD = 416.62, 95% CI: 280.68 to 552.56, P ≤ 0.001 ). Furthermore, the subgroup analysis demonstrated that the increase in VC is significantly correlated with the Tai Chi practicing time (WMD = 344.97, 95% CI: 227.88 to 442.06, P ≤ 0.001 ). Conclusion. Regular Tai Chi practice could improve the CRF in the elderly, as indicated by significant improvement in indicators including VO2max, O2pulse, VC, and HR. However, gender and practice time might influence the overall beneficial outcomes.

Tan, Tianyang↗

Soil, Foodstuffs, and Biota Program [Slides]

We use several environmental monitoring tools to assess ecosystem health and in part, risk to human health. Generally, the concentrations of chemicals we observe are below background and screening levels. All of our monitoring data are available in Intellus, and our analyses and results are reported in the Annual Site Environmental Report. Our program is only one of several monitoring programs at LANL, others include air, surface water, ground water, canyon sediments. We strive to improve the program by incorporating new monitoring techniques, monitoring new locations, monitoring new chemicals of interest, and by using robust statistical analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic, risk informed decision support systems and methods

The present disclosure is directed to a decision support system or tool based on a Bayesian Network (BN) framework. The diagnostic support tool is created by using advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method(s) to construct Bayesian Networks (BNs) that form a Bayesian Decision Support Process (BDSP) to provide science-based decision support for understanding and managing events in complex systems. In an embodiment, the PRA method(s) may include Discrete Dynamic Event Trees (DDETs) and simulations.

Groth, Katrina↗

Securing Solar for the Grid: Spring 2024 IAB Meeting

The Spring 2024 IAB meeting will focus on updates from the research team and collective feedback and inputs for an updated Roadmap for Solar Cybersecurity. Researchers from the four DOE National Laboratories will present with industry counterparts for the major research tasks within the S2G program, including: Solar Cybersecurity Standards and Certifications, Solar Risk Assessments & Mitigation, Solar Supply Chain Assessment, Network Monitoring Tools and Analysis, and Training and Workforce Development. Sandia National Laboratories developed an original Roadmap for PV Cybersecurity in 2017. This year, we are updating that roadmap to reflect the current state of research and industry and identify gaps and priorities still to be addressed. We look forward to the IAB’s input on key topics for the roadmap.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Smart Labs: Improving Lab Facilities to Meet Decarbonization Goals

Smart Labs enable safe and efficient world class science to occur in laboratories through high-performance methods. The Smart Labs Toolkit describes a systematic process to help laboratory owners and operators plan, assess, optimize, and manage laboratory facilities. This half-day workshop reviews the four phases of the Smart Labs Toolkit along with an interactive activity to complete a Laboratory Ventilation Risk Assessment. This session will also highlight the Lab Benchmarking Tool, which compares the energy use, emissions, and operational practices of lab buildings with similar facilities. Attendees will also discuss application as well as sharing tools and best practice guides.

assessment↗

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MRCI Task 3: Facilitating Data Collection, Sharing, and Analysis Final Technical Summary Report

The Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) Task 3.0 was defined to facilitate development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the region by collection and sharing of existing and new technical data from CCUS projects and research. The task also included support for further analysis and assessment of tools by the project team and by researchers working on programs such as National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), machine learning (ML) techniques, and assessment and improvement of CCUS site assessment, operations, and monitoring aspects. Work under Task 3.0 addressed key issues related to CCUS deployment and provided foundational research and datasets to help establish CCUS projects in the MRCI. Report Authors and Principal Technical Contributors: Joel Sminchak, Laura Keister, Mackenzie Scharenberg, Priya Ravi-Ganesh, Autumn Haagsma, Srikanta Mishra, Jared Hawkins, Jared Schuetter, Amy Lang, Jaelen Lewis, Derrick James, Jorge Barrios, Stuart Skopec, and Sanjay Mawalkar (Battelle). Chris Korose, Carl Carmen, Nate Grigsby, Nathan Webb (Illinois State Geological Survey). Principal Investigators: Dr Neeraj Gupta, Dr. Chris Korose.

MRCI,NRAP,data collection,data compilation,legacy ↗

A Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Novel Reliability Analysis of Software

Technological advancements and nuclear power plant modernization has inspired considerable research in the areas of safety and reliability, yet there remains a lack of consensus for the reliability assessment of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. Motivated by the lack of consensus for reliability analysis methods, this work employs a novel framework that incorporates Bayesian, human reliability, and common-cause failure (CCF) modeling techniques. The novel framework allows the use of state-of-the-art or classical modeling techniques when accounting for human and CCF effects on system reliability. The Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Reliability Analysis of Software (BAHAMAS) is demonstrated by a case study for the quantification of software hazards found in a previous analysis of a digital reactor trip system. The results demonstrate the ability of BAHAMAS to account for human activities during the software development life cycle and their influence on software reliability. BAHAMAS is a flexible tool for extending the coverage of conventional probabilistic risk assessments to include modernized digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Big Data For Operation and Maintenance Cost Reduction

The purpose of this research is to develop a first-of-a-kind framework for integrating Big Data capability into the daily activities of our current fleet of nuclear power plants. Big Data is traditionally defined as data sets with high volume, velocity, and heterogeneity, and the existing Big Data analytics capabilities are now widely popular in fields such as finance, weather, e-commerce, healthcare and sports. In the nuclear industry, while the volume and velocity of data may present computational challenges for existing analytics capabilities, data heterogeneity are seen to present the major challenge. This research project mainly focuses on incorporating the wide range of data heterogeneities in nuclear power plants into an integrated Big Data Analytics capability. The primary end-product of this project is a Big Data framework that is capable of dealing with the large volume and heterogeneity of the data found in nuclear power plants to extract timely and valuable information on equipment performance. The framework can generate system insights that are actionable relations between measurable impacts and the corresponding maintenance action plans and enable optimization of plant operation and maintenance based on the extracted information. The developed framework is capable of handling heterogeneous data including both image data and time-series sensor data. Specifically, this developed framework includes the following components. The first component is an overarching maintenance ontology which includes system insights required by maintenance optimization. The maintenance ontology interacts with other components in the developed framework. The second component handles Piping & Instrumentation Diagram (P&ID) data. It can be used to extract system components and their relations automatically from the P&IDs. This extracted information is stored in the first component, i.e., maintenance ontology, and is also used as input to the third component, i.e., a tool for generating the fault tree for the corresponding system. The generated fault tree in turn is stored in the ontology for assessing risk that is used as a criterion in maintenance policy optimization. The fourth component is a tool for inferring the parameters in the Markov degradation model for a nuclear system. It uses basic information from the ontology. The fifth component is a tool for assessing the degradation level using sensor measurement data, for example, pressure, flowrate. This tool can be used for determining corrective maintenance actions. The results obtained from components four and five are returned to the ontology. The sixth component of the framework is a tool for optimizing the maintenance policy for a nuclear system of interest. It takes certain basic information from the ontology, e.g., costs of maintenance actions and system failures, as input, and returns the optimal maintenance policy to the ontology. This tool can be used for determining predictive maintenance actions. A set of experiments have also been conducted to verify the algorithms developed in this project for nuclear system degradation monitoring. The experiments are based on four solenoid valves, similar to the ones used in nuclear power plants. The analyses based on the experimental data using two algorithms, i.e., the Randomized Window Decomposition (RWD) algorithm and the particle filtering algorithm, and the results are introduced in the report. The Big Data framework developed in this project can be used as a support tool in daily activities of plant operation and maintenance and will reduce current costs while maintaining or improving safety levels. Overall, the project will not only benefit existing reactors, however it will open new frontiers to realize the long overdue value of Big Data Analytics in the nuclear sphere.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Risk-based System Upgrade Planning for AOT-IC Presentation [Slides]

The number of deployed systems and different HW/SW form factors makes it difficult to maintain a complete understanding of their health which leads to a reduced level of certainty when assessing risk and trying to prioritize system upgrade efforts. AOT-IC must constantly plan and execute system upgrade and replacement projects to ensure the longevity of the control system. There are many more projects needed than the group can realistically accomplish given schedule and resource constraints. The group must prioritize their upgrade projects to choose only the highest priority projects to execute each year. Currently plans upgrade and replacement projects based on alignment with mission needs, group vision, resource availability, and qualitative risk assessments based on SME estimates. The group maintains a risk register. This is useful as a tool for shaping strategic planning but currently lacks the quantitative data and process needed to generate accurate risk assessments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗