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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2013

Testing of an Annular Linear Induction Pump for the Fission Surface Power Technology Demonstration Unit

Results of performance testing of an annular linear induction pump that has been designed for integration into a fission surface power technology demonstration unit are presented. The pump electromagnetically pushes liquid metal (NaK) through a specially-designed apparatus that permits quantification of pump performance over a range of operating conditions. Testing was conducted for frequencies of 40, 55, and 70 Hz, liquid metal temperatures of 125, 325, and 525 C, and input voltages from 30 to 120 V. Pump performance spanned a range of flow rates from roughly 0.3 to 3.1 L/s (4.8 to 49 gpm), and pressure heads of <1 to 104 kPa (<0.15 to 15 psi). The maximum efficiency measured during testing was 5.4%. At the technology demonstration unit operating temperature of 525 C the pump operated over a narrower envelope, with flow rates from 0.3 to 2.75 L/s (4.8 to 43.6 gpm), developed pressure heads from <1 to 55 kPa (<0.15 to 8 psi), and a maximum efficiency of 3.5%. The pump was supplied with three-phase power at 40 and 55 Hz using a variable-frequency motor drive, while power at 55 and 70 Hz was supplied using a variable-frequency power supply. Measured performance of the pump at 55 Hz using either supply exhibited good quantitative agreement. For a given temperature, the peak in efficiency occurred at different flow rates as the frequency was changed, but the maximum value of efficiency was relative insensitive within 0.3% over the frequency range tested, including a scan from 45 to 78 Hz. The objectives of the FSP technology project are as follows:5 • Develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. • Establish a nonnuclear hardware-based technical foundation for FSP design concepts to reduce overall development risk. • Reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. • Generate the key nonnuclear products to allow Agency decision makers to consider FSP as a viable option for potential future flight development. The pump must be compatible with the liquid NaK coolant and have adequate performance to enable a viable flight system. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was tasked with the design and fabrication of an ALIP suitable for the FSP reference mission. Under the program, a quarter-scale FSP technology demonstration is under construction to test the end-to-end conversion of simulated nuclear thermal power to usable electrical power intended to raise the entire FSP system to Technology Readiness Level 6. An ALIP for this TDU was fabricated under the direction of the INL and shipped to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for testing at representative operating conditions. This pump was designed to meet the requirements of the TDU experiment. The ALIP test circuit (ATC) at MSFC, previously used to conduct performance evaluation on another ALIP6 was used to test the present TDU pump for the FSP Technology Development program.

Polzin, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binaries with Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Observations Using the LALInference

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star (BNS), a neutron star - black hole binary (NSBH) and a binary black hole (BBH), where we show a cross-comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analysed with non-spinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analysing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence (CBC) parameter space.

gravitational wave↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Practical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification Using Probability Boxes

To date, while the use of CFD for aerospace vehicle design and development is prevalent, the documentation of uncertainties associated with the simulations are rare. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the research and engineering design community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. These factors have prevented the adoption of UQ methods in the engineering design and development cycle. This presentation will outline a credible approach to UQ using Probability Boxes that is straightforward to apply, and can readily be automated using existing UQ tool sets such as the DAKOTA packaged developed at Sandia. The added expense incurred when moving away from a deterministic CFD process to a stochastic one that captures uncertainties to enable risk-informed decision making will be discussed, as well as effective ways to reduce the computational costs.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2012

Failure Mode Analysis of V-Shaped Pyrotechnically Actuated Valves

Current V-shaped stainless steel pyrovalve initiators have rectified many of the deficiencies of the heritage Y-shaped aluminum design. However, a credible failure mode still exists for dual simultaneous initiator (NSI) firings in which low temperatures were detected at the booster cap and less consistent ignition was observed than when a single initiator was fired. In order to asses this issue, a numerical framework has been developed for predicting the flow through pyrotechnically actuated valves. This framework includes a fully coupled solution of the gas-phase equation with a non-equilibrium dispersed phase for solid particles as well as the capability to model conjugate gradient heat transfer to the booster cap. Through a hierarchy of increasingly complex simulations, a hypothesis for the failure mode of the nearly simultaneous dual NSI firings has been proven. The simulations indicate that the failure mode for simultaneous dual NSI firings may be caused by flow interactions between the flame channels. The shock waves from each initiator interact in the booster cavity resulting in a high pressure that prevents the gas and particulate velocity from rising in the booster cap region. This impedes the bulk of the particulate phase from impacting the booster cap and reduces the heat transfer to the booster cap since the particles do not impact it. Heat transfer calculations to the solid metal indicate that gas-phase convective heat transfer may not be adequate by itself and that energy transfer from the particulate phase may be crucial for the booster cap burn through.

Sachdev, Jai S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

Lock, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Particle Transport and Impact in Transient, Multiphase Oxidizer-Rich Environments Using Computational Fluid Dynamics and Lagrangian Particle Tracking

Particle impacts from foreign object debris (FOD) in an oxidizer-rich environment have been shown to be a credible and significant risk for ignition and failure of components and vehicles. The risk of particle ignition is dependent on many factors, including particle impact velocity/energy and fluid composition (i.e. fluid phase, species presence, and state). Prediction of particle transport and particle impacts in relevant environments, including transient, multiphase flows, is important for assessing the risk and avoiding repeated expensive system level tests. The capability to model both the fluid dynamics and particle transport in complex three-dimensional geometries and multiphase environments has been developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in the propulsion fluid dynamic branch (ER42) by utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and Lagrangian particle tracking. Using CFD tools, including density-based Loci/CHEM with a cavitation model and pressure-based Loci/STREAM with a volume of fluids model, MSFC/ER42 has provided particle impact predictions to multiple projects for oxidizer compatibility assessments. Simulations of transient, multiphase environments such as liquid slugs flowing through tubing and cavitating flow in valves have been completed alongside one-way coupled Lagrangian particle tracking to predict particle impacts.

M.V. Fischels↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗
NASA NTRS2012

TRMM Latent Heating Retrieval and Comparisons with Field Campaigns and Large-Scale Analyses

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating (LH), is one of the principal sources of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The vertical distribution of LH has a strong influence on the atmosphere, controlling large-scale tropical circulations, exciting and modulating tropical waves, maintaining the intensities of tropical cyclones, and even providing the energetics of midlatitude cyclones and other mobile midlatitude weather systems. Moreover, the processes associated with LH result in significant non-linear changes in atmospheric radiation through the creation, dissipation and modulation of clouds and precipitation. Yanai et al. (1973) utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Yanai's paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables used in LH algorithms. This paper examines the retrieval, validation, and application of LH estimates based on rain rate quantities acquired from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). TRMM was launched in November 1997 as a joint enterprise between the American and Japanese space agencies -- with overriding goals of providing accurate four-dimensional estimates of rainfall and LH over the global Tropics and subtropics equatorward of 35o. Other literature has acknowledged the achievement of the first goal of obtaining an accurate rainfall climatology. This paper describes the second major goal of obtaining credible LH estimates as well as their applications within TRMM's zone of coverage, the standard TRMM LH products, and areas for further improvement.

latent heating↗
NASA NTRS2016

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment↗
NASA NTRS2003

Investigations of Mechanisms Associated with Nucleate Boiling Under Microgravity Conditions

In this work a building block type of approach is used so that a basic understanding of the processes that contribute to nucleate boiling heat fluxes under microgravity conditions can be developed. This understanding will lead to development of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling heat transfer which could eventually be used as a design tool in space applications. Task Description Task 1: Fabrication of the Experimental Setup. Under this task, the test section and liquid holding and viewing chambers will be fabricated. Artificial cylinder cavities will be formed on silicon wafers. A single cavity and two or four cavities, with a prescribed spacing and size, will be formed. The desired nucleation wall superheat will be used to determine the size of the mouth of the cavities. Task 2: Experiments. The basic experiments for flow and temperature field around single and multiple (2 or 4 separated or merged bubbles growing on downward facing or inclined surfaces) will be carried out under normal gravity conditions. The experiments will be conducted at one atmosphere pressure, but liquid subcooling will be varied from 0 to 30C. Water and PF-5050 will be used as test liquids. Task 3: Analytical/Numerical Models. In this task, transient temperature and flow field in vapor and liquid will be determined during growth of a single bubble. Analysis will include the evolution of the vapor-liquid interface and development of microlayer underneath the bubbles. For merged bubbles, detailed calculations of flow and temperature field will be carried out for transient shapes of vapor stems supporting a large bubble and the corresponding evaporation rate. Flow and temperature field for a bubble sliding along a heated wall will also be determined. Microgravity conditions will be simulated and a framework of a numerical tool for prediction of nucleate boiling heat fluxes under microgravity conditions will be developed. Task 4: Experiments in a KC-135. To understand bubble growth and detachment behavior of single or large merged bubbles, boiling experiments will be conducted under low gravity (10-2 g) conditions of the aircraft. In these experiments, 'designed' surfaces will be used. Visual observations and heat transfer data will be taken, but holography will not be used. The apparatus used for laboratory experiments will also be employed for experiments in the aircraft. Task 5: Experiments in the Space Shuttle. Effort will be devoted for defining a boiling experiment to be conducted on a 'designed' surface. The experiment will provide microgravity data on bubble growth and departure. These data are needed for development of a credible model for nucleate boiling heat fluxes under microgravity conditions. The heat transfer data will also be obtained and will be used to validate the models.

Dhir, Vijay K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗
NASA NTRS2010

Fission Surface Power System Initial Concept Definition

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA has embarked on a project to develop Fission Surface Power (FSP) technology. The primary goals of the project are to 1) develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options, 2) establish a hardwarebased technical foundation for FSP design concepts and reduce overall development risk, 3) reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates, and 4) generate the key products to allow NASA decision-makers to consider FSP as a preferred option for flight development. The FSP project was initiated in 2006 as the Prometheus Program and the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) mission were phased-out. As a first step, NASA Headquarters commissioned the Affordable Fission Surface Power System Study to evaluate the potential for an affordable FSP development approach. With a cost-effective FSP strategy identified, the FSP team evaluated design options and selected a Preliminary Reference Concept to guide technology development. Since then, the FSP Preliminary Reference Concept has served as a point-of-departure for several NASA mission architecture studies examining the use of nuclear power and has provided the foundation for a series of "Pathfinder" hardware tests. The long-term technology goal is a Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) integrated system test using full-scale components and a non-nuclear reactor simulator. The FSP team consists of Glenn Research Center (GRC), Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the DOE National Laboratories at Los Alamos (LANL), Idaho (INL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), and Sandia (SNL). The project is organized into two main elements: Concept Definition and Risk Reduction. Under Concept Definition, the team performs trade studies, develops analytical tools, and formulates system concepts. Under Risk Reduction the team develops hardware prototypes and conducts laboratory-based testing.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean Turbulence I: One-Point Closure Model Momentum and Heat Vertical Diffusivities

Since the early forties, one-point turbulence closure models have been the canonical tools used to describe turbulent flows in many fields. In geophysics, Mellor and Yamada applied such models using the 1980 state-of-the art. Since then, no improvements were introduced to alleviate two major difficulties: 1) closure of the pressure correlations, which affects the correct determination of the critical Richardson number Ri(sub cr) above which turbulent mixing is no longer possible and 2) the need to express the non-local third-order moments (TOM) in terms of lower order moments rather than via the down-gradient approximation as done thus far, since the latter seriously underestimates the TOMs. Since 1) and 2) are still being dealt with adjustable parameters which weaken the credibility of the models, alternative models, not based on turbulence modeling, have been suggested. The aim of this paper is to show that new information, partly derived from the newest 2-point closure model discussed, can be used to solve these shortcomings. The new one-point closure model, which in its simplest form is algebraic and thus simple to implement, is first shown to reproduce a variety of data. Then, it is used in a Ocean-General Circulation Model (O-GCM) where it reproduces well a large variety of ocean data. While phenomenological models are specifically tuned to ocean turbulence, the present model is not. It is first tested against laboratory data on stably stratified flows and then used in an O-GCM. It is more general, more predictive and more resilient, e.g., it can incorporate phenomena like wave-breaking at the surface, salinity diffusivity, non-locality, etc. One important feature that naturally comes out of the new model is that the predicted Richardson critical value Ri(sub cr) is Ri (sub cr approx. = 1) in agreement with both Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and empirical evidence while all previous models predicted Ri (sub cr approx. = 0.2) which led to a considerable underestimate of the extent of turbulent mixing and thus to an incorrect mixed layer depth. The predicted temperature and salinity profiles (vs. depth) are presented and compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Petruvsky-Piskunuv (KPP) model and Levitus data.

Canuto, V. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Motion Cueing Algorithm Modification for Improved Turbulence Simulation

Atmospheric turbulence cueing produced by flight simulator motion systems has been less than satisfactory because the turbulence profiles have been attenuated by the motion cueing algorithms. Cardullo and Ellor initially addressed this problem by directly porting the turbulence model output to the motion system. Reid and Robinson addressed the problem by employing a parallel aircraft model, which is only stimulated by the turbulence inputs and adding a filter specially designed to pass the higher turbulence frequencies. There have been advances in motion cueing algorithm development at the Man-Machine Systems Laboratory, at SUNY Binghamton. In particular, the system used to generate turbulence cues has been studied. The Reid approach, implemented by Telban and Cardullo, was employed to augment the optimal motion cueing algorithm installed at the NASA LaRC Simulation Laboratory, driving the Visual Motion Simulator. In this implementation, the output of the primary flight channel was added to the output of the turbulence channel and then sent through a non-linear cueing filter. The cueing filter is an adaptive filter; therefore, it is not desirable for the output of the turbulence channel to be augmented by this type of filter. The likelihood of the signal becoming divergent was also an issue in this design. After testing on-site it became apparent that the architecture of the turbulence algorithm was generating unacceptable cues. As mentioned above, this cueing algorithm comprised a filter that was designed to operate at low bandwidth. Therefore, the turbulence was also filtered, augmenting the cues generated by the model. If any filtering is to be done to the turbulence, it will utilize a filter with a much higher bandwidth, above the frequencies produced by the aircraft response to turbulence. The authors have developed an implementation wherein only the signal from the primary flight channel passes through the nonlinear cueing filter. This paper discusses three new algorithms. Testing shows that the new methods provide the pilot with a more realistic sensation of turbulence; the cues are not attenuated by algorithm. Results of offline testing show the credibility of the models. Offline test verification was based primarily on the evaluation of the power spectral density of the outputs and the time response.

Ercole, Anthony V.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗
NASA NTRS2003

Derivation of Aerosol Columnar Mass from MODIS Optical Depth

In order to verify performance, aerosol transport models (ATM) compare aerosol columnar mass (ACM) with those derived from satellite measurements. The comparison is inherently indirect since satellites derive optical depths and they use a proportionality constant to derive the ACM. Analogously, ATMs output a four dimensional ACM distribution and the optical depth is linearly derived. In both cases, the proportionality constant requires a direct intervention of the user by prescribing the aerosol composition and size distribution. This study introduces a method that minimizes the direct user intervention by making use of the new aerosol products of MODIS. A parameterization is introduced for the derivation of columnar aerosol mass (AMC) and CCN concentration (CCNC) and comparisons between sunphotometer, MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and in-measurements are shown. The method still relies on the scaling between AMC and optical depth but the proportionality constant is dependent on the MODIS derived r$_{eff}$,\eta (contribution of the accumulation mode radiance to the total radiance), ambient RH and an assumed constant aerosol composition. The CCNC is derived fkom a recent parameterization of CCNC as a function of the retrieved aerosol volume. By comparing with in-situ data (ACE-2 and TARFOX campaigns), it is shown that retrievals in dry ambient conditions (dust) are improved when using a proportionality constant dependent on r$ {eff}$ and \eta derived in the same pixel. In high humidity environments, the improvement inthe new method is inconclusive because of the difficulty in accounting for the uneven vertical distribution of relative humidity. Additionally, two detailed comparisons of AMC and CCNC retrieved by the MAS algorithm and the new method are shown. The new method and MAS retrievals of AMC are within the same order of magnitude with respect to the in-situ measurements of aerosol mass. However, the proposed method is closer to the in-situ measurements than the MODIS retrievals. The retrievals of CCNC are also within the same order of magnitude for both methods. The new method is applied to an actual MODIS retrieval and although no in-situ data is available to compare, it is shown that the proposed method yields more credible values than the MODIS retrievals. In addition, recent data available from the PRIDE (Puerto Rico Dust Experiment, July 2000) will be shown by comparing sunphotometer, MODIS and in-situ data.

Gasso, Santiago↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗
NASA NTRS2006

Global Aspects of Heliosphere-Geosphere Coupling

The magnetosphere serves both to hold off the solar wind and to couple it selectively to the Earth through the auroral zones. It has long been understood that the plasmasphere consists of geogenic plasmas that expand out of the sunlit low latitude ionosphere, but it was initially assumed that the hot low density plasma beyond the plasmasphere is largely of solar wind origin with a minor admixture of ionospheric plasmas, discovered via mass spectrometric observations in the early 70's. Since then, elaborate simulation models have been developed that have taken us from an era of cartoon physics to a new era of quantitative global comparisons between observations and theory. In most current global circulation models of the magnetosphere, the ionospheric load on the system is taken to lie exclusively in the thin F layer of the ionosphere. This layer is coupled with solar wind and magnetospheric plasmas via Maxwell stresses communicated by field aligned current systems, and with the thermosphere via ion-neutral charge exchange and Coulomb collisions. However, recent observations have shown us that ionospheric plasmas flow sporadically in various forms into the plasmasphere and up into the high latitude circulation cells of the outer magnetosphere, as driven by the solar wind and its variable intensity and magnetic field. Under some conditions, ionospheric material is observed to be the principal component of plasmas at the dayside magnetopause and in the plasma sheet and ring current regions. Given a global model of magnetospheric circulation, it is relatively straightforward to investigate the behaviors of ionospheric plasmas in response to solar wind drivers, and we report the results of such efforts here. We find that ionospheric plasmas dominate the plasma pressure in the magnetosphere in some regions, particularly when the solar wind is especially intense and-or southward directed. This result violates the assumption that the ionospheric load is confined to the F layer, and shows that the ionosphere is often an important dynamic element of the solar wind-ionosphere system throughout the magnetosphere, especially during larger geospace storms. This means that future global circulation models must account for ionospheric plasma inertia, heat capacity, and pressure, to be quantitatively credible.

Moore, Thomas E.↗