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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Life Qualification of Hall Thrusters By Analysis and Test

High power Hall thrusters under development for deep space robotic and human exploration missions have demanding lifetime and operational requirements that make thruster life qualification challenging. The required burn times make it infeasible to conduct multiple tests with durations exceeding the life requirement, and complex wearout phenomena and the need for power throttling during missions complicate analyses and testing. The traditional qualification approach, a single life test that typically demonstrates 50 to 100% margin on the required lifetime, does not provide enough information to demonstrate low failure risk. It is a weak source of statistical information about the location of the peak in the failure probability distribution and provides no information on the width of the distribution. Testing does provide information that can be used to validate physics-based models of failure processes, however, and the combination can be used to assess mission risk. Validated, conservative, deterministic analysis can be used to demonstrate that most failure processes have such large margins that more detailed analysis is unnecessary. For a subset of the failure modes a more detailed probabilistic analysis is required. Pole erosion in a 12.5 kW Hall thruster is used as a detailed example of this qualification process.

Brophy, John R.↗

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗

The distribution of hot spots

Statistical analyses are compared for two published hot spot data sets, one minimal set of 42 and another larger set of 117, using three different approaches. First, the earths surface is divided into 16 equal-area fractions and the observed distribution of hot spots among them is analyzed using chi-square tests. Second, cumulative distributions about the principal axes of the hot spot inertia tensor are used to describe hot spot distribution. Finally, a hot spot density function is constructed for each of the two hot spot data sets. The methods all indicate that hot spots have a nonuniform distribution, even when statistical fluctuations are considered. To the first order, hot spots are concentrated on one half of of the earth's surface area; within that portion, the distribution is consistent with a uniform distribution. The observed hot spot densities for neither data set are explained solely by plate speed.

Stefanick, M.↗

Low-Earth-Orbiter resource allocation and capacity planning for the DSN using LEO4CAST

The Deep Space Network provides tracking and communication services for a number of U.S. and international low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) and near-Earth missions. This service is supplied by the 26-m subnet (located at each of the DSN complexes), the 9-m and the 34-m Antenna Research System antennas at Goldstone, and the 11-m antennas (following the orbital VLBI mission). An increasing number of LEO missions are planned for DSN support, which will result in increasingly complex ground resource allocation and mission support trades. To support TDA decision making on mission support and cost-effective ground system evolution for this 26-m subnet, LEO4CAST has been developed. LEO4CAST is a tool that uses statistical approaches to provide useful information for long-term ground system capacity planning and near-term resource allocation (prior to detailed time-of-day scheduling). LEO4CAST is currently beta-test software and is being exercised by both the Office of Telecommunications and Data Acquisition (TDA) and the JPL Systems Division.

Fox, G.↗

Comets after Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp

Being icy, cometary nuclei are the most easily modified bodies in the solar system - even modest heating is sufficient to induce significant weight loss. This sublimative loss and longterm storage far from the sun protect the nucleus against internal warming and ensure that cometary nuclei today contain the least processed material remaining from the early nebula - or perhaps from the natal cloud. The chemical compositions of ices, low temperature-refractory organics, and refractory minerals (and their physical states) provide sensitive probes of the origin and history of this material. The fortunate appearance of Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp has provided a wealth of information on these Oort cloud comets, obtained with a wide range of astronomical approaches. I will review certain key results for these comets, such as chemical abundances, isotopic abundance ratios, nuclear spin statistics, and nuclear vs extended production of "parent volatiles", and will illustrate how these test the origins of cometary material. A comparison with 1P/Halley--a third comet from the giant planet nebular region--will be discussed in the context of heterogeneity among these bodies.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Computational tools for multi-linked flexible structures

A software module which designs and tests controllers and filters in Kalman Estimator form, based on a polynomial state-space model is discussed. The user-friendly program employs an interactive graphics approach to simplify the design process. A variety of input methods are provided to test the effectiveness of the estimator. Utilities are provided which address important issues in filter design such as graphical analysis, statistical analysis, and calculation time. The program also provides the user with the ability to save filter parameters, inputs, and outputs for future use.

Lee, Gordon K. F.↗

Video transmission on ATM networks

The broadband integrated services digital network (B-ISDN) is expected to provide high-speed and flexible multimedia applications. Multimedia includes data, graphics, image, voice, and video. Asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) is the adopted transport techniques for B-ISDN and has the potential for providing a more efficient and integrated environment for multimedia. It is believed that most broadband applications will make heavy use of visual information. The prospect of wide spread use of image and video communication has led to interest in coding algorithms for reducing bandwidth requirements and improving image quality. The major results of a study on the bridging of network transmission performance and video coding are: Using two representative video sequences, several video source models are developed. The fitness of these models are validated through the use of statistical tests and network queuing performance. A dual leaky bucket algorithm is proposed as an effective network policing function. The concept of the dual leaky bucket algorithm can be applied to a prioritized coding approach to achieve transmission efficiency. A mapping of the performance/control parameters at the network level into equivalent parameters at the video coding level is developed. Based on that, a complete set of principles for the design of video codecs for network transmission is proposed.

Chen, Yun-Chung↗

Assessing Videogrammetry for Static Aeroelastic Testing of a Wind-Tunnel Model

The Videogrammetric Model Deformation (VMD) technique, developed at NASA Langley Research Center, was recently used to measure displacements and local surface angle changes on a static aeroelastic wind-tunnel model. The results were assessed for consistency, accuracy and usefulness. Vertical displacement measurements and surface angular deflections (derived from vertical displacements) taken at no-wind/no-load conditions were analyzed. For accuracy assessment, angular measurements were compared to those from a highly accurate accelerometer. Shewhart's Variables Control Charts were used in the assessment of consistency and uncertainty. Some bad data points were discovered, and it is shown that the measurement results at certain targets were more consistent than at other targets. Physical explanations for this lack of consistency have not been determined. However, overall the measurements were sufficiently accurate to be very useful in monitoring wind-tunnel model aeroelastic deformation and determining flexible stability and control derivatives. After a structural model component failed during a highly loaded condition, analysis of VMD data clearly indicated progressive structural deterioration as the wind-tunnel condition where failure occurred was approached. As a result, subsequent testing successfully incorporated near- real-time monitoring of VMD data in order to ensure structural integrity. The potential for higher levels of consistency and accuracy through the use of statistical quality control practices are discussed and recommended for future applications.

Spain, Charles V.↗

Effect of Loading Rate on the Open Hole Compression Strength of Quasi-Isotropic Carbon/Epoxy Laminates

This study was undertaken to examine how well the 0.05 inch/min loading rate typically used to develop allowables for open hole compression strength of carbon/epoxy laminates represents structures that may experience a much lower loading rate (such as civil engineering structures) or a much higher loading rate (such as a rocket interstage at liftoff). The Composite Materials Handbook-17 (CMH-17) suggests developing strength allowables at the coupon level (lowest level of the “building block” approach) and using a rigorous statistical analysis to arrive at a strength allowable upon which the structure is to be further designed at higher levels of the building block pyramid. But do these coupon level tests truly represent meaningful stresses at which the composite in the final structure can withstand considering the effects of loading rate? Open hole compression (OHC) strength was chosen for this study since most structures are designed to some damage tolerance criteria and OHC strength testing is rather simple to perform. A quasi-isotropic lay-up was chosen since this is a very common lay-up sequence. The results show that for structures that experience a very small loading rate (0.0005 in/min) the allowables developed at the standard 0.05 in/min loading rate are higher than what the composite can withstand at this lower loading rate. Conversely, at a high loading rate of 10 in/min the strength values found at the standard test rate of 0.05 in/min are slightly lower and not “in family” using the statistics suggested in CMH-17. These results question if standardized test rates are reliable, at least to the fidelity of being “in family” per CMH-17. Some creep rupture tests were also performed to demonstrate that OHC strength values could be lower than the slowest test speed used in this study (0.0005 in/min).

open hole compression strength↗

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗

Fatigue Criterion for System Design

Report discusses principles of structural-life prediction. Generalized methodology developed for structural life prediction, design, and reliability, based upon fatigue criterion. Approach incorporates computed life of elemental stress volumes of complex machine elements to predict system life. Results of coupon fatigue testing incorporated into analysis, allowing for life prediction and component or structural renewal rates, with reasonable statistical certainty.

Zeretsky, E. V.↗

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia using a variety of grid systems and turbulence models for the June 2009 4th Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was a new subsonic transport model, the Common Research Model, designed using a modern approach for the wing and included a horizontal tail. The fourth workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and incremental drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal tail configurations. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with earlier workshops using the statistical framework.

Statistical analysis↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Node-avoiding Levy flight - A numerical test of the epsilon expansion

A study is conducted of an extension of Levy flight to include self-repulsion in the path of the walk. The extension is called node-avoiding Levy flight and its equivalence to the n approaches 0 limit of a statistical mechanical model for a magnetic system with long-range interactions between the spins is shown. By use of this equivalence it is possible to make a detailed comparison beween the results of the epsilon expansion for the magnetic model, a Monte Carlo simulation of the Levy flight model, and the results of a Flory-type argument. This is the first comparison of the epsilon expansion for epsilon much less than 1 with a numerical simulation for any model. Some speculations are made on applications of the model of node-avoiding Levy flight.

Halley, J. W.↗

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

Parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase are developed. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance, and time. The relationship between weight and cost is examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested statistically against a historical data base of major research and development programs. It is concluded that the technique presented is sound, but that it must be refined in order to produce acceptable cost estimates.

Cyr, Kelley↗

Supply Current Diagnosis in VLSI

This paper presents a technique based upon the power supply current signature (cd) which allows for the testing of mixed-signal systems, in situ. Through experiments with a microprocessor, the cd is shown to contain important information concerning the operational status of the system which may be easily extracted using approaches based on statistical signal detection theory. The fault-detection performance of these techniques is compared to that achieved through auto-regressive modeling of the cd.

Frenzel, J. F.↗