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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Deep Learning Super-Resolution X-Ray Computed Tomography Algorithms for Additive Manufacturing

Industrial X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is a nondestructive method for inspection and characterization of additively manufactured (AM) materials and parts. In practice, the resolution of XCT can be limited by factors such as detector binning, restricted field of view for large-scale objects, system blur, motion during scanning, and acquisition settings. These limitations can reduce the detectability of critical flaws such as pores, cracks, and lack of fusion. Super-resolution (SR) techniques offer a promising solution for improving the effective resolution and image quality of XCT reconstructions without the need for expensive hardware upgrades or laborious, time-consuming scans. In particular, deep learning-based SR methods have garnered attention in recent years as powerful tools for reconstructing high-resolution volumes from low-resolution inputs. In this work, a novel deep learning-based SR method is proposed for XCT scans of AM parts, and compared against several existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The proposed method, Simurgh-SR, is built on the pre-existing Simurgh framework and consists of a 2.5D U-Net trained to map low-quality inputs containing noise and artifacts to high-quality reconstructions characterized by higher flaw contrast, better noise texture, and reduced artifacts. The experimental results demonstrate superior performance of Simurgh-SR in performing 4× SR on real industrial XCT scans of thick 316L components, enhancing the structural similarity score and peak signal-to-noise ratio (>7dB) compared to the LR counterpart while improving the F1-score for flaw detection by more than 2.3× when compared to alternative SOTA SR methods. This improvement enables more accurate and significantly faster characterization of metal AM components. Additionally, Simurgh-SR was trained for both 2X and 4X SR and performs effectively at both levels, enabling the use of a single model for various SR factors.

Rahman, Obaid [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000277810840)↗

Resolve instrument onboard XRISM: design, integration, and instrument test results

The Resolve instrument onboard the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) consists of an array of 6 × 6 silicon-thermistor microcalorimeters cooled down to 50 mK and a high-throughput X-ray mirror assembly (XMA) with a focal length of 5.6 m. XRISM is a recovery mission of ASTRO-H/Hitomi, and the Resolve instrument is a rebuild of the ASTRO-H Soft X-ray spectrometer (SXS) and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) that achieved energy resolution of ∼ 5 eV FWHM on orbit, with several important changes based on lessons learned from ASTRO-H. The flight models of the Dewar and the electronics boxes were fabricated, and the instrument test and calibration were conducted in 2021. By tuning the cryocooler frequencies, energy resolution better than 4.9 eV FWHM at 6 keV was demonstrated for all 36 pixels and high-resolution grade events, as well as energy-scale accuracy better than 2 eV up to 30 keV. The immunity of the detectors to microvibration, electrical conduction, and radiation was evaluated. The instrument was delivered to the spacecraft system in April 2022. The XMA was tested and calibrated separately. Its angular resolution is 1.27′, and the effective area of the mirror itself is 570 cm 2 at 1 keV and 424 cm 2 at 6 keV. We report the design and the major changes from the ASTRO-H SXS, the integration, and the results of the instrument test.

X-ray↗

VoroClust

SAND2025-11465O VoroClust, also known as Voronoi Clustering, is a fast, density-based unsupervised clustering algorithm applicable to high-resolution and high-dimensional data. It operates as quickly as distance-based clustering methods while effectively capturing complex regional geometries, matching the performance of current density-based methods. VoroClust employs a data-centered sphere cover to reduce computational demands while preserving data topology. It propagates clusters outward from local density peaks. Although supervised machine learning is powerful for applications like image classification and segmentation, it requires comprehensive, consistent datasets, which many applications lack. Unsupervised clustering algorithms analyze the structure of each dataset rather than relying on similarities with other examples, making them well-suited for practical applications with insufficient or inappropriate data for supervised learning. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Ebeida, Mohamed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

Data for Yield from Iowa’s first commercial miscanthus fields: implications of spatial variability for productivity and sustainability beyond research plots

This dataset contains biomass yield measurements and associated vegetation index data collected from commercial Miscanthus × giganteus fields in eastern Iowa during the 2022–2023 growing seasons. The data support the analyses presented in the article: “Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots.” We collected 105 ground-truth biomass samples from four mature commercial fields (>4 years old) covering 92.81 ha. Samples were taken from 3 m² quadrats that were hand-harvested in alignment with commercial harvest timing. Stem biomass (excluding leaves) was weighed, moisture-corrected, and converted to dry-matter yield expressed in Mg DM ha⁻¹. Sampling locations were selected to capture spatial variability visible in aerial imagery and were recorded using RTK GPS. Each biomass observation was paired with vegetation indices derived from high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery (3 m resolution). Images were acquired throughout the growing season, and indices were calculated to evaluate their ability to predict end-of-season biomass yield. Statistical and machine learning approaches were used to identify key predictors, and a linear regression model based on end-of-July Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) was developed and evaluated. This repository includes the data used in that modeling workflow. Management practices, economic data, full imagery time series, and additional methodological details are described in the associated publication and are not included here. The dataset consists of three comma-separated value (CSV) files: 1. Combine_Groundtruth_Yield_VI_22_23.csv This file contains ground-truth biomass yield measurements and associated key vegetation index values collected during the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons. Rows: 105 observations Columns: Year — Year of observation (2022 or 2023) Field — Field location identifier Sample_number — Unique sample identifier GNDVI_End_Jul — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of July GNDVI_End_Aug — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of August NDRE_End_Aug — Normalized Difference Red Edge index calculated at end of August Biomass_Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (megagrams dry matter per hectare) 2. trainData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the subset of observations used to train the predictive relationship between July GNDVI and biomass yield. Rows: 76 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Observed stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) 3. testData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the test dataset used to evaluate model performance. Rows: 29 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Predicted_Yield_MgDM/ha — Model-predicted stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) Observed_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹)

Potential yield, yield gap, in-field management, y↗

Single-distance nano-holotomography with coded apertures

High-resolution phase-contrast 3D imaging using nano-holotomography typically requires collecting multiple tomograms at varying sample-to-detector distances, usually 3 to 4. This multi-distance approach limits temporal resolution, making it impractical for operando studies. Moreover, shifting the sample complicates reconstruction, requiring precise alignment, registration, and interpolation to correct for shift-dependent magnification on the detector. In response, we propose and validate through simulations a novel, to the best of our knowledge, single-distance approach that leverages coded apertures to structure beam illumination while the sample rotates. Finally, this approach relies on a joint reconstruction scheme, which integrates phase retrieval with 3D tomography, ensuring data consistency and achieving artifact-free reconstructions from a single distance, unlocking dynamic experiments.

Nikitin, Viktor [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗

Quality-Controlled Meteorological Data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC) Network, Phoenix, Arizona (1987-2024)

This dataset contains 15- or 30-minute interval meteorological data from the Flood Control District of Maricopa County (FCDMC), Arizona, USA, covering eight key variables across multiple sensor stations between 1987 and 2024. Each variable is stored as a separate CSV file, containing time-series data that have undergone rigorous quality control (QC) procedures and, where appropriate, short-gap interpolation for consistency. The quality control (QC) pipeline consisted of four sequential tests: (1) a range test to ensure all values fall within physically realistic limits, (2) a step test to identify abrupt and implausible changes between consecutive records, (3) a proximity test that validates flagged values from step test using data from nearby stations and exceedance probability thresholds, and (4) a persistence test to detect and remove periods of unrealistically constant readings. These thresholds were calibrated to Arizona’s environmental conditions and sensor specifications. After QC, short gaps (≤2 hours) were linearly interpolated to ensure consistent temporal resolution, except for wind variables. Due to a major upgrade in FCDMC’s data transmission system, only ALERT-2 protocol data (2016–2024) for wind variables are included; earlier ALERT-1 data were excluded because of irregular sampling and high missing rates. This dataset supports regional climate and infrastructure resilience studies by providing standardized, high-resolution meteorological data for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a NEAMS-based high-fidelity model of the MARVEL reactor

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory in developing a high-fidelity and high-resolution model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation reactor. The model was developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation microreactor application driver at Idaho National Laboratory. The overarching objective of this activity is the development of a high-fidelity multiphysics MARVEL model using NEAMS tools, and to verify and validate NEAMS tools against MARVEL reference simulation and experimental data, respectively. This is a unique opportunity to conduct multiphysics analysis on a soon-to-be-deployed microreactor. This multiphysics model developed under the NEAMS-funded INL microreactor application driver leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApp and Transfer systems. The latter systems enable in-memory data transfer between MOOSE-based and MOOSE-wrapped applications. The first single-physics model, that functions as main application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). Several optimization flags that were developed by the Griffin developer team were beta-tested to enhance the solver’s performance. These include the combined use of using_average_xs and update_averaged_xs_on that enable to avoid expensive on-the-fly cross sections evaluations at each linear iterations in favor of evaluations of the macroscopic cross sections at each Picard iteration. The second single-physics model uses BISON to handle solid heat transfer and asymptotic hydrogen redistribution analysis in the fuel. While the model returns consistent results for the temperature and hydrogen distribution in the fuel, a mismatch was noticed in the calculated temperature in the reflector due to the value of the gap conductance used in our model. Ongoing investigations are being performed to assess the origin of this discrepancy. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. A first verification was also performed showing good agreement in terms of mass flow rate and inlet temperature. All mesh files were generated using the MOOSE Reactor module, removing the need for external meshing tools. Notably, this workscope represents one of the initial applications of the MOOSE Reactor module for modeling highly irregular geometries. The use of the reactor module significantly streamlined the mesh generation process. The full multiphysics mode, that combines all the single physics models, was leveraged to conduct initial steady-state multiphysics simulations to compute power, and temperature distribution in the reactor. Initial testing was performed for transient simulations as well. In this case, the new checkpoint restart capability for eigenvalue calculations was tested showing the capability for streamlined restart of transient calculations. Future work will focus on improving the fidelity of the model by performing comprehensive code-to-code comparisons. For instance, the full-core Griffin neutronics model will be benchmarked against MCNP reference results, that were provided by the MARVEL design team. Additionally, the SAM T/H model will be verified against reference RELAP-5 results for selected accident scenarios. Besides code-to-code verification exercises, the model fidelity will be improved by replacing the single-channel SAM model with a more complex SAM-Pronghorn coupled model, in which the sub-channel capability is deployed to obtain radial temperature resolution in the coolant. This model will be developed in synergy with the NEAMS thermal hydraulics team.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

National Climate Database (NCDB)

The National Climate Database (NCDB) is a high resolution, bias-corrected climate dataset consisting of the three most widely used variables of solar radiation- global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI)- as well as other meteorological data. The goal of the NCDB is to provide unbiased high temporal and spatial resolution climate data needed for renewable energy modeling. The NCDB is modeled using a statistical downscaling approach with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based climate projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX; linked below). Daily climate projections simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model 4 (CanRCM4) forced by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 or moderate emissions scenario and RCP8.5 or highest baseline emission scenario) are selected as inputs to the statistical downscaling models. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to build and calibrate statistical models.

Array↗

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗

Hubble Space Telescope Observations within the Sphere of Influence of the Powerful Supermassive Black Hole in PKS 0745-191

We present Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph observations from the Hubble Space Telescope of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of PKS 0745-191, a brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) undergoing powerful radio-mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback (P cav ~ 5 × 10 45 erg s -1 ). These high-resolution data offer the first spatially resolved map of gas dynamics within an SMBH's sphere of influence under such powerful feedback. Our results reveal the presence of highly chaotic, nondrotational ionized gas flows on subkiloparsec scales, in contrast to the more coherent flows observed on larger scales. While radio-mode feedback effectively thermalizes hot gas in galaxy clusters on kiloparsec scales, within the core, the hot gas flow may decouple, leading to a reduction in angular momentum and supplying ionized gas through cooling, which could enhance accretion onto the SMBH. This process could, in turn, lead to a self-regulating feedback loop. Compared to other BCGs with weaker radio-mode feedback, where rotation is more stable, intense feedback may lead to more chaotic flows, indicating a stronger coupling between jet activity and gas dynamics. Additionally, we observe a sharp increase in velocity dispersion near the nucleus, consistent with a very massive M BH ~ 1.5 × 10 10 M ⊙ SMBH. The density profile of the ionized gas is also notably flat, paralleling the profiles observed in X-ray gas around galaxies where the Bondi radius is resolved. These results provide valuable insights into the complex mechanisms driving galaxy evolution, highlighting the intricate relationship between SMBH fueling and AGN feedback within the host galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Distortion of a Relativistic Jet Echoing a Magnetic Flux Eruption

Magnetized accretion onto spinning black holes (BHs) can accumulate a large magnetic flux across the event horizon and launch a pair of relativistic jets via the Blandford–Znajek mechanism. In the magnetically saturated (arrested) state, excess magnetic flux is ejected from the BH in episodic magnetic flux eruptions, which result in a significant yet temporary reduction of jet power. We analyze results of a high-resolution 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulation of geometrically thick magnetically saturated accretion onto a high-spin Kerr BH for a single cycle of magnetic flux eruption and accumulation. We show that following an eruption, a weakened jet develops a strong helical distortion with a distinct structure of magnetic fields—the poloidal field along the jet core is unaffected by the eruption; while toroidal field lines, ejected from the BH during the eruption and later readvected onto it, form poloidal “bypasses” along the inner jet sheath. Such a distortion may appear in sources fed by geometrically thick accretion flows as an asymmetric superluminal knot, strongly interacting with the jet sheath along an oblique working surface. The jet section repowered by magnetic flux reaccumulated on the BH is tilted by a few degrees, implying significant variations in radiation boost towards observers of BL Lac blazars. The intrinsic structure of the jet spine is consistent with axisymmetric semi-analytical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quiescent Host Galaxies of Extended Quasars Revealed by Spectrophotometric Decomposition

Previous works of low-redshift quasar host galaxies have focused on compact quasars and found that their host galaxies are mainly star-forming galaxies. Here, we present a study of host galaxies for quasars with extended morphologies in ground-based optical images. We select a sample of more than 1000 type 1 quasars at redshift 0.1 < z < 1 that are classified as extended objects by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Combining high-resolution spectra from DESI and high-quality images from Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam, we develop a spectrophotometric decomposition technique to iteratively decompose each quasar into an active galactic nucleus (AGN) component and its host galaxy. The technique can effectively break the degeneracy between the AGN and host components and capture the host spectral features. Our results show that the host galaxies of most quasars have low star formation rates (SFRs) and low specific SFRs, indicating that they are quiescent galaxies. Many of them exhibit prominent post-starburst features with the existence of significant old stellar populations. These properties are quite different from the nature of compact quasars with star-forming host galaxies. In addition, the relation between the black hole mass and stellar mass for our sample is broadly consistent with the canonical local relations. This work is complementary to the previous studies and suggests that the host galaxies of low-redshift quasars are more diverse than was thought.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The XRISM/Resolve View of the Fe K Region of Cyg X-3

The X-ray binary system Cygnus X-3 (4U 2030+40, V1521 Cyg) is luminous but enigmatic owing to the high intervening absorption. High-resolution X-ray spectroscopy uniquely probes the dynamics of the photoionized gas in the system. In this Letter, we report on an observation of Cyg X-3 with the XRISM/Resolve spectrometer, which provides unprecedented spectral resolution and sensitivity in the 2–10 keV band. We detect multiple kinematic and ionization components in absorption and emission whose superposition leads to complex line profiles, including strong P Cygni profiles on resonance lines. The prominent Fe xxv Heα and Fe xxvi Lyα emission complexes are clearly resolved into their characteristic fine-structure transitions. Self-consistent photoionization modeling allows us to disentangle the absorption and emission components and measure the Doppler velocity of these components as a function of binary orbital phase. We find a significantly higher velocity amplitude for the emission lines than for the absorption lines. The absorption lines generally appear blueshifted by ∼−500–600 km s −1 . We show that the wind decomposes naturally into a relatively smooth and large-scale component, perhaps associated with the background wind itself, plus a turbulent, denser structure located close to the compact object in its orbit.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗

Detection of the Orbital Modulation of Fe Kα Fluorescence Emission in Centaurus X-3 Using the High-resolution Spectrometer Resolve on board XRISM

Abstract The Fe K α fluorescence line emission in X-ray spectra is a powerful diagnostic tool for various astrophysical objects to reveal the distribution of cold matter around photoionizing sources. The advent of the X-ray microcalorimeter on board the XRISM satellite will bring new constraints on the emission line. We present one of the first such results for the high-mass X-ray binary Centaurus X-3, which is composed of an O-type star and a neutron star (NS). We conducted a 155 ks observation covering an entire binary orbit. A weak Fe K α line was detected in all orbital phases at an equivalent width (EW) of 10–20 eV. We found for the first time that its radial velocity (RV) is sinusoidally modulated by the orbital phase. The RV amplitude is 248 ± 13 km s −1 , which is significantly smaller than the value (391 km s −1 ) expected if the emission is from the NS surface, but is consistent if the emission takes place at the O star surface. We discuss several possibilities of the line production site, including the NS surface, O star surface, O star wind, and accretion stream from the O star to the NS. We ran radiative transfer calculation for some of them assuming spherically symmetric density and velocity profiles and an isotropic distribution of X-ray emission from the NS. None of them explains the observed EW and velocity dispersion dependence on the orbital phase, suggesting that more elaborated modeling is needed. In other words, the present observational results have the capability to constrain deviations from these assumptions.

High energy astrophysics↗

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗