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At least 145 records · Page 8

Model of photoemission and framework for relating quantum efficiency to stoichiometry

Simulating the quantum efficiency (QE) from photocathodes used in accelerators and photoinjectors requires accounting for the properties of the photoemissive material, the optical properties, scattering coefficients, and doping concentrations of which are dependent upon the stoichiometry. We present a rapid and flexible optical model that can be used to investigate the consequences of changes in the dielectric properties and their impact on the QE through such factors as reflectivity and laser penetration depth. Differences in materials can then be characterized by changes to parameters used to evaluate the dielectric function in a Lorentz–Drude–Resonant model. A method to characterize data is motivated by the example of copper and vetted by application to an exact analytical model. The effects of changes in parameters describing the resonant terms, which aggregate in the visible and UV regions of the spectrum, are shown.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Static characterization of a highly optimized streak tube design incorporating a steering slot anode and an aberration-corrected Einzel lens

The BHx streak tube, under development at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, incorporates a series of novel electron-optics elements to enable high fidelity measurements for high-energy-density physics experiments. The system is engineered to support a 25-mm active photocathode region compatible with sub-picosecond temporal resolution and with 70% internal photoelectron throughput. It exhibits negligible geometric distortion on a flat output screen, making it well suited for variety of measurements, such as ultrafast x-ray spectroscopy. Here, this paper presents characterization data from a prototype unit tested with an ultraviolet laser in a static deflection (non-swept) mode and shows good agreement with the predictions from numerical modeling, including focusing performance and geometric distortion measurements. Key design elements have been demonstrated and de-risked, laying the foundation for dynamic deflection testing. The anticipated improvements in data fidelity are expected to impact the fields as diverse as inertial confinement fusion, laboratory astrophysics, and materials science.

High energy density physics↗

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗

Probing the rapid formation of black holes and their Galaxy hosts in QSOs

Using the modelling code x-cigale, we reproduced the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of 1359 SDSS quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) within the redshift range 0 < z < 4, for which we have NIR/MIR fluxes with the highest quality and spectral data characterizing their supermassive black hole (SMBHs). Consistent with a rapid formation of the host galaxies, the star formation histories (SFHs) have small e-folding, at most 750 Myr using an SFH function for spiral or 1000 Myr using one for elliptical. Above z ∼ 1.6, the two solutions are degenerate, the SEDs being dominated by the active galactic nucleus (AGN) continuum and high star formation rates (SFRs), typical of starburst galaxies, while at lower redshifts the starburst nature of the host, independent from its morphology, is better reproduced by a spiral SFH. In general, the SFR increases with the redshift, the mass of the bulge, the AGN luminosity, and Eddington ratio, suggesting there is no evidence of AGN quenching of star formation. Comparing the specific BH accretion rate (BHAR) with specific SFR, all the QSOs at any redshift trace a linear sequence below the Eddington luminosity, in parallel and above the one-to-one relation, implying that QSOs are in a special phase of evolution during which the growth in mass of their SMBH is more rapid than the growth in mass of their galaxy hosts. This particular phase is consistent with a scenario where the galaxy hosts of QSOs in the past grew in mass more rapidly than their SMBHs, suggesting that a high star formation efficiency during their formation was responsible in limiting their masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impulse Response Functions for Characterizing Pulse-to-Pulse Junction Temperature Behavior in Laser Diode Pulse Trains

A method is proposed for determination of the pulse-to-pulse variation in junction temperature and emission wavelength of a semiconductor laser diode during a train of pulses. Here, this approach, based on impulse response functions, enables predictions for pulse trains with arbitrary pulse-to-pulse variations in output power, pulse width, and pulse delay using a limited set of experimental characterization data. The use of this approach is illustrated by application to a particular device structure.

Deri, Robert J. [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Adaptive stabilization of quantum circuits executed on unstable devices

Conventional computers have evolved to device components that demonstrate failure rates of 10 −17 or less, while current quantum computing devices typically exhibit error rates of 10 −2 or greater. This raises concerns about the reliability and reproducibility of the results obtained from quantum computers. The problem is highlighted by experimental observation that today’s NISQ devices are inherently unstable. Remote quantum cloud servers typically do not provide users with an ability to calibrate the device themselves. Using inaccurate characterization data for error mitigation can have devastating impact on reproducibility. In this study, we investigate if one can infer the critical channel parameters dynamically from the noisy binary output of the executed quantum circuit and use it to improve program stability. An open question however is how well does this methodology scale. We discuss the efficacy and efficiency of our adaptive algorithm using canonical quantum circuits such as the uniform superposition circuit. Our metric of performance is the Hellinger distance between the post-stabilization observations and the reference (ideal) distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

Demonstration of a modeling toolkit for the design of building electrical distribution systems

The deployment of building equipment (e.g., lighting, security) and miscellaneous electrical loads that fundamentally require DC power for operation is increasing. Powering these DC loads has traditionally required an AC/DC converter, but the installation of photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems that primarily produce DC power eliminates the need for AC/DC converters at each end-device. However, analyzing system energy efficiency and cost for different electrical distribution architectures can be challenging as software tools that support this are not readily available. This paper presents preliminary results from a laboratory verification of the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit that was developed to address this gap. Three different eight-luminaire lighting systems comprised of market-available products were designed and modeled: one that used traditional AC distribution, a second that used a hybrid AC -to- centralized DC electrical distribution architecture, and a third that used a hybrid AC -to- distributed DC architecture. Notably, AC/DC conversions are required in all three systems. BEEAM models for LED drivers as well as Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) switches were created using laboratory characterization data. The lighting systems were simulated in Modelica, and the results were compared with each other and physics-based expectations. Simulation results show that PoE system energy efficiency is highly dependent on both device specification (e.g., LED driver and PoE switch efficiency) and system architecture (e.g., PoE switch loading) choices, as expected. For the products and system architectures selected for this study, the two DC systems were found to be less efficient than the AC system over the course of typical operation. In future work, simulation results will be compared with laboratory measurements to validate the usefulness of this software for design, and lighting systems with integrated PV and battery energy storage will be simulated to quantify the energy performance improvements that result from the elimination of some AC/DC converters.

Waghale, Anay S.↗

Effects of as-received defects on ceramic matrix composites properties using high-fidelity microstructures with periodic boundary conditions

The presence of microstructural defects in as-received specimens of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) significantly influences their constitutive response and damage, highlighting the importance of characterization and quantification of these defects for accurate assessment of damage and failure in the service environment. In a recent effort, the authors developed an algorithm to generate stochastic representative volume elements (SRVEs) of Carbon fiber Silicon-Carbide-Nitride matrix (C/SiNC) CMCs based on extensive multiscale material and defect characterization data. This paper implements this algorithm within a commercial finite element solver with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) for high-fidelity micromechanics analysis and investigation of macroscopic material behavior of C/SiNC composites. Different loading directions are used to predict the global mechanical properties, and the results are in excellent agreement with theoretical (rule of mixture) predictions. Subsequently, the effects of as-received defects on the global and local responses are investigated. The results show that intratow porosity has pronounced degradation effects on the global elastic properties and results in complex stress localization patterns, which can be attributed to potential damage initiation sites.

Khafagy, Khaled H.↗

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Acceptable Knowledge Technologist Procedure

Process acceptable knowledge (AK) is a waste stream characterization method that can be used to meet all or part of the waste analysis requirements appropriate for the waste. The method may include documented knowledge of process (KOP), additional characterization data, and/or facility records of analysis. LANL will use process AK to ensure chemical compatibility; assign matrix parameter categories and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) hazardous waste numbers (HWNs) commonly referred to as EPA codes to waste streams; and determine the waste material parameters and radionuclides present in waste streams.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Visualizing Uranium Crystallization from Melt: Experiment-Informed Phase Field Modeling and Machine Learning

The focus of this project was to observe and simulate the solidification of uranium metal at the crystallographic level from its molten state. Melting experiments were conducted at two different scales to observe microstructural evolution using either a laboratory-scale induction furnace (hundreds of grams of metal) or a microscope heating stage (hundreds of milligrams of metal), respectively. Experimental parameters and characterization data were then used to inform a phase field model of gamma-U crystal growth as dendrites with or without secondary phase impurities in the form of uranium carbide particles. Finally, training datasets were generated by the phase field model as inputs to a neural network, developed with the aim of providing a faster, cheaper surrogate model for microstructural simulations within a given parameter space. Progress is reported herein for each of these task areas. Ultimately, 1) an optical microscope heating stage capability has been stood-up for uranium metal solidification studies, 2) a phase field model was advanced to simulate multiple uranium grains growing in the presence of carbide impurity particles and 3) a neural network was constructed and optimized to predict the microstructure features of individually growing uranium crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Modeling Workflow to Generate Representative Geologic Variability in Training Dataset for SMART Initiative

The poster discusses the modeling workflow to generate ensemble of geologic realizations of the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) site, based on available site characterization data and inherent uncertainty of those data, for use by project collaborators in DOE SMART Initiative (Phase 2) to build their forward modeling, history matching, and optimization workflows. This poster is summarized from the technical report for the SMART project submitted to U.S. DOE earlier this year.

Ganesh, Priya Ravi↗

NORTH DAKOTA CARBONSAFE PHASE III: SITE CHARACTERIZATION AND PERMITTING OF GEOLOGIC STORAGE OF CARBON DIOXIDE

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc. (Minnkota), SLB, and Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG), supported wide-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative Phase III. This phase included the acquisition, analysis, and development of information to fully characterize two storage complexes to demonstrate viable storage resources for commercial volumes of CO2 (defined by DOE as a minimum of 50 million tonnes [MMt] of CO2 within a 30-year period) (National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2024). Phase III also involved the preparation, submission, and approval of North Dakota underground injection control (UIC) Class VI storage facility permits (SFPs)—required precursors to applications for Class VI injection well permits. The presumed viability of commercial-scale CCS, situated adjacent to Minnkota’s Milton R. Young Station (MRYS), is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of Project Tundra—an initiative to build the world’s largest lignite-based CCS project in central North Dakota (www.projecttundrand.com). Project Tundra comprises two scopes of work, Tundra Capture (installation of postcombustion CO2 capture at MRYS) and Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage). The efforts of North Dakota CarbonSAFE Phase III, Site Characterization and Permitting, supported Tundra SGS. Extensive site-specific characterization activities included a successful multimeasurement geophysical approach and drilling a stratigraphic test well (J-ROC 1, subsequently renamed Liberty-1) adjacent to MRYS. Core collection and analyses, downhole testing and fluid sampling, and geophysical logging were performed on J-ROC 1 and on a nearby stratigraphic test well (known as J-LOC 1), which was drilled, cored, and tested under a complementary project funded by the North Dakota Lignite Research Program. The injection tests performed on J-LOC 1 positively impacted the CarbonSAFE project, resulting in fewer proposed injection wells and significant construction, operations, and monitoring cost savings. The characterization data collected and analyses performed were integrated into geologic models, and successive numerical simulations were run to determine CO2 plume extent and subsurface pressure buildup associated with the planned CO2 injection rate of nearly 4 MMt per year. The latter doubles the CarbonSAFE Initiative goal with an estimated 100 MMt of CO2 stored in 20 years. Application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) method for estimating the Class VI Rule area of review (AOR) to the overpressurized Broom Creek Formation inspired an alternative method of calculation, called risk-based AOR delineation. This peer-reviewed method was applied for the first time during the storage facility-permitting process. The two SFP applications submitted in 2021 successfully resulted in North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) orders in 2022 authorizing the creation of the storage facility areas and amalgamation of pore space as well as establishing financial responsibility requirements. After approval of the SFPs, Minnkota filed in 2022 applications for permits to reenter the J-ROC 1 well and to drill two new wells—all with the intended purpose to become Class VI injection wells. To establish eligibility under the Internal Revenue Code for Section 45Q tax incentives, a monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan was prepared and submitted by Minnkota to EPA in 2022, resulting in the first such plan approved in North Dakota. Also in 2022, under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Minnkota prepared and submitted an environmental information volume (EIV) describing the proposed CCS project and associated potential environmental impacts. Based on the EIV, DOE determined that the proposed construction project required an environmental assessment, and Minnkota submitted the first draft in 2023 and a revised draft in 2024. Both submissions were followed by a public comment period. Subsequently, DOE issued a finding of no significant impact (FONSI) on September 13, 2024. A successful outreach program, strongly based in the production, presentation, and dissemination of informational material, fostered an environment to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding the planned project. Opportunities for public input were provided at various steps along the way, including at county planning and zoning meetings, before and during the SFP administrative hearing, and during environmental assessment public comment periods. In addition, land/pore space owners and mineral owners had various points of contact, including granting access rights, securing pore space leasing, and mineral owner notifications. Based upon the successful storage facility permitting issued by NDIC, approval of the MRV plan by EPA, and receipt of a FONSI under the NEPA, Minnkota is continuing its pursuit of Project Tundra. In December 2023, the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations under its Carbon Capture Demonstrations Projects Program announced funding for the capture system (Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023) and a proposal for CarbonSAFE Phase IV: Construction funding was submitted in March 2024 for the storage project. A go/no-go decision to proceed with construction and operations in the Broom Creek Formation is anticipated in 2024. References National Energy Technology Laboratory, CarbonSafe Initiative, https://netl.doe.gov/carbon-management/carbon-storage/carbonsafe (accessed August 2024). Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023, OCED selects three projects in CA, ND, and TX to reduce harmful carbon pollution, create new economic opportunities, and advance carbon reducing technologies, December, www.energy.gov/oced/articles/oced-selects-three-projects-ca-nd-and-tx-reduce-harmful-carbon-pollution-create-new (accessed August 2024).

Peck, Wesley↗

Characterization of C-Reactor (105-C) Moderator Tanks 204 and 205

Area Completion Project (ACP)/Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS) has requested Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to perform chemical and radiological analyses on moderator heavy water samples from C-Reactor (105-C) in Moderator Tanks 204 and 205. The heavy water samples have been characterized using SRNL analytical methods. Information generated from the characterization of these heavy water samples provide a basis for determining the residual contamination remaining in the tanks. These analyses are needed in order to update the C-Reactor Contaminant migration groundwater model and report, to help determine a disposition pathway for the moderator water, and to ship samples off-site to the Southwest Research Institute (SWRI). This report presents characterization results for the March 2024 C-Reactor Moderator Tank 204 and 205 heavy water samples. SRNL results are critical to allow ACP to complete this Performance Based Incentive project on time. Based on the characterization data provided in this report, results of these samples meet customer expectations and satisfy the Technical Assistance Request (TAR).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): a study of broadband radiometric measurements under icing conditions in the Arctic

Abstract. Surface-based measurements of broadband shortwave (solar) and longwave (infrared) radiative fluxes using thermopile radiometers are made regularly around the globe for scientific and operational environmental monitoring. The occurrence of ice on sensor windows in cold environments – whether snow, rime, or frost – is a common problem that is difficult to prevent as well as difficult to correct in post-processing. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) community recognizes radiometer icing as a major outstanding measurement uncertainty. Towards constraining this uncertainty, the De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE) was carried out at the NOAA Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, from August 2017 to July 2018. The purpose of D-ICE was to evaluate existing ventilation and heating technologies developed to mitigate radiometer icing. D-ICE consisted of 20 pyranometers and 5 pyrgeometers operating in various ventilator housings alongside operational systems that are part of NOAA's Barrow BSRN station and the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program North Slope of Alaska and Oliktok Point observatories. To detect icing, radiometers were monitored continuously using cameras, with a total of more than 1 million images of radiometer domes archived. Ventilator and ventilator–heater performance overall was skillful with the average of the systems mitigating ice formation 77 % (many >90 %) of the time during which icing conditions were present. Ventilators without heating elements were also effective and capable of providing heat through roughly equal contributions of waste energy from the ventilator fan and adiabatic heating downstream of the fan. This provided ∼0.6 ∘C of warming, enough to subsaturate the air up to a relative humidity (with respect to ice) of ∼105 %. Because the mitigation technologies performed well, a near complete record of verified ice-free radiometric fluxes was assembled for the duration of the campaign. This well-characterized data set is suitable for model evaluation, in particular for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) first Special Observing Period (SOP1). We used the data set to calculate short- and long-term biases in iced sensors, finding that biases can be up to +60 W m−2 (longwave) and −211 to +188 W m−2 (shortwave). However, because of the frequency of icing, mitigation of ice by ventilators, cloud conditions, and the timing of icing relative to available sunlight, the biases in the monthly means were generally less than the aggregate uncertainty attributed to other conventional sources in both the shortwave and longwave.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Raptor

Raptor is an efficient Python-based tool for predicting the formation and morphology of stochastic lack of fusion defects in metal AM processes. A major obstacle for the qualification and certification of additively manufactured parts in critical applications continues to be performance variability caused in part by porosity-related defects. High-fidelity process models that could predict these defect features are currently too computationally expensive for component-level analysis. To address this, Raptor employs a high-performance geometric method to model the dynamic melt pool rather than relying on computationally intensive thermal fluid dynamics. This allows Raptor to rapidly identify regions of unmelted material that correspond to lack of fusion pores. The efficiency of this approach significantly reduces the time and resources needed for generating 3D defect predictions, which enables users to conduct large-scale parameter studies and evaluate how process variations affect part quality. The framework offers operational flexibility; users can execute simulations through a simple command line interface or integrate core functions as a library within larger computational workflows. Simulation outputs include 3D porosity maps for visualization and tools for quantitative morphological analysis. These results are suitable for direct comparison with experimental characterization data from methods such as X-ray computed tomography and can be used for statistical process optimization.

Subraveti, Vamsi [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN ↗

EGS Stimulation Design with Uncertainty Quantification at the EGS Collab Site

Engineering a robust hydraulic connection between wells is one of the most difficult aspects of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Designing and constructing such hydraulic connections requires and understanding of the in situ state of stress and the heterogeneities and discontinuities that naturally exist and may control the stimulation. Even with comprehensive stress and formation characterization programs substantial uncertainty remains in these key parameters. This is especially the case in high-temperature EGS environments where drilling conditions are often difficult and a far fewer logging and testing options are available. This paper presents a new approach for explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the state of stress using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This approach produces a probability distribution for the stress tensor, including a general 3D orientation, that reflects the uncertainties in all the observations or indicators used to constrain the stress state. This method is demonstrated on the characterization data for the EGS Collab Experiment 2 site. The output of the analysis is used to guide the design of the planned stimulations. In the case of research projects like EGS Collab, explicitly quantifying the uncertainties in the stress state allow for more rigorous hypothesis testing by allowing conclusions drawn from the experiments to be interpreted in the context of the uncertain knowledge about conditions in the test bed.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗