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DOE OSTI2024

Light Detecting and Ranging (LIDAR) for in-situ heliostat optical error assessment

A system and method for optical assessment of a heliostat includes obtaining a point cloud data representing an image of the heliostat; isolating the data; filtering and fitting the filtered heliostat data to a bounding box; translating the heliostat data to a plane to aid in segmentation; segmenting a plurality of facets of the heliostat fitting each of the segmented facets to a respective plane; generating normal vectors characterizing each of the plurality of facets; and calculating a canting angle associated with each respective facet of the plurality of facets. A heliostat with mirrored facets and a scanner are provided. The scanner captures point cloud data representing the heliostat, which is segmented for each facet. Normal vectors characterize the facets and a canting angle is calculated for the respective facet.

Small, Daniel E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Charm physics with overlap fermions on 2+1-flavor domain wall fermion configurations*

Decay constants of pseudoscalar mesons D, D s , η c , and vector mesons D*, D$^{*}_{s}$, J/ψ are determined from the N f = 2 + 1 lattice QCD at a lattice spacing a ~ 0.08 fm. For vector mesons, the decay constants defined by tensor currents are given in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 2 GeV. The calculation is performed on domain wall fermion configurations generated by the RBC-UKQCD collaborations and the overlap fermion action is used for the valence quarks. Comparing the current results with our previous results at a coarser lattice spacing a ~ 0.11 fm provides a better understanding of the discretization error. We obtain $f$$^{T}_{D^*_s}$($\overline{MS}$, 2 GeV)/f D$^{*}_{s}$ = 0.909(18) with a better precision than our previous result. Combining our f D$^{*}_{s}$ = 277(11) MeV with the total width of D$^{*}_{s}$ determined in a recent study gives a branching fraction 4.26(52) x 10 –5 for D$^{*}_{s}$ leptonic decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wireless Patch Antenna Characterization for Live Health Monitoring Using Machine Learning

Temperature monitoring in extreme environments, such as coal-fired power plants, was addressed by designing and testing wireless patch antennas for use in machine learning-aided temperature estimation. The sensors were designed to monitor the temperature and health of boiler systems. Wireless interrogation of the sensor was performed using a Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) and a pair of interrogation antennas to capture resonance behavior under varying thermal and spatial conditions with sensitivities ranging from 0.052 to 0.20 $\frac{𝑀𝐻𝑧}{°C}$. Sensor calibration was conducted using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, which leveraged temporal patterns to account for hysteresis effects. The calibration method demonstrated improved performance when combined with an LSTM model, achieving up to a 76% improvement in temperature estimation error when compared with Linear Regression (LR). The experiments highlighted an innovative solution for patch antenna-based non-contact temperature measurement, which addresses limitations with conventional methods such as RFID-based systems, infrared, and thermocouples.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

PIP-II LLRF Master Oscillator and Precision Reference Line- Station Level Design and Testing

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab requires a highly stable RF Reference Line to maintain phase synchronization throughout the accelerator. Temperature-induced changes in the electrical length of long coaxial cables can introduce phase drift and measurement errors. The reference-line architecture mitigates these effects by phase averaging the forward and reflected RF signals, while a phase-locked loop anchors the system to the master oscillator. This work focuses on the characterization, validation, and mechanical integration of station-level RF assemblies using CAD modeling, vector network analyzer measurements, and spectrum analyzer testing. PID-controlled thermal plates will stabilize critical RF components and further reduce temperature-dependent phase and amplitude variations. These methods support repeatable, standardized designs that can be reliably integrated across the different reference-line stations.

Mosher, Alexander [U. Illinois, Chicago; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nucleon Axial Radius and Muonic Hydrogen — A New Analysis and Review

Weak capture in muonic hydrogen (μH) as a probe of the chiral properties and nucleon structure predictions of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is reviewed. A recent determination of the axial-vector charge radius squared, , from a model independent z expansion analysis of neutrino-nucleon scattering data is employed in conjunction with the MuCap measurement of the singlet muonic hydrogen capture rate, , to update the induced pseudoscalar nucleon coupling derived from experiment, and predicted by chiral perturbation theory. Accounting for correlated errors this implies , confirming theory at the 8% level. If instead, the predicted expression for is employed as input, then the capture rate alone determines , or together with the independent z expansion neutrino scattering result, a weighted average . Sources of theoretical uncertainty are critically examined and potential experimental improvements are described that can reduce the capture rate error by about a factor of 3. Muonic hydrogen can thus provide a precise and independent value which may be compared with other determinations, such as ongoing lattice gauge theory calculations. The importance of an improved determination for phenomenology is illustrated by considering the impact on critical neutrino-nucleus cross sections at neutrino oscillation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

DOE OSTI2019

Vector Calibration for Vertical Tests of Superconducting RF Cavities

We propose procedure for vector calibration of Q 0 vs E acc curve measurement for superconducting resonators. The proposed vector calibration procedure and hardware has several advantages over the techniques currently used for vertical cavity tests. It provides high level of automation and reduces manpower and preparation time for the test; it provides in situ, real time control of hardware parameters and allows to detect hardware failure and operator's errors; it allows to control and exclude the most significant systematic uncertainties, measured values of Q 0 (E acc ) can be made traceable to national standards.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

PIP-II LLRF Master Oscillator and Precision Reference Line - Station Level Design and Testing

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab requires a highly stable RF Reference Line to maintain phase syn- chronization throughout the accelerator. Temperature- induced changes in the electrical length of long coaxial cables can introduce phase drift and measurement errors. The reference-line architecture mitigates these effects by phase averaging the forward and reflected RF signals, while a phase-locked loop anchors the system to the mas- ter oscillator. This work focuses on the characterization, validation, and mechanical integration of station-level RF assemblies using CAD modeling, vector network analyzer measurements, and spectrum analyzer testing. PID-controlled thermal plates will stabilize critical RF components and further reduce temperature-dependent phase and amplitude variations. These methods sup- port repeatable, standardized designs that can be reliably integrated across the different reference-line stations.

Mosher, Alexander [U. Illinois, Chicago]↗

DOE OSTI2018

Unsupervised Parsing of Gaze Data with a Beta-process Vector Auto-regressive Hidden Markov Model

The first stage of analyzing eye-tracking data is commonly to code the data into sequences of fixations and saccades. This process is usually automated using simple, predetermined rules for classifying ranges of the time series into events, such as “if the dispersion of gaze samples is lower than the threshold, then code as a fixation; otherwise code as a saccade.” More recent approaches incorporate additional eye-movement categories in automated parsing algorithms, particularly glissades, by using time-varying, data-driven thresholds. We describe an alternative approach using the beta-process auto-regressive hidden Markov model (BP-AR-HMM). The BP-AR-HMM offers two main advantages over existing frameworks. First, it provides a statistical model for eye movement classification rather than a single estimate. Second, the BP-AR-HMM uses a latent process to model the number and nature of the types of eye-movements and hence is not constrained to predetermined categories. We applied the BP-AR-HMM both to high-sampling rate gaze data from Andersson, Larsson, Holmqvist, Stridh, and Nyström (2016) and to low-sampling rate data from the DIEM project (Mital, Smith, Hill, & Henderson, 2011). Driven by the data properties, the BP-AR-HMM identified clusters of samples resembling saccades, fixations and smooth pursuit, and a category that approximately corresponds to glissades (as well as blinks, errors, etc.). The BP-AR-HMM serves as an effective algorithm for data-driven event parsing alone or as an initial step in exploring the characteristics of gaze data sets.

eye tracking, fixation, fixation, saccade, smooth ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Hierarchical Multi-Agent Based Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection in Smart Grid

Future smart grid capabilities provide assurance to expand the advanced information and communication technologies to evolve into densely interconnected cyber physical system. Remedial Action Scheme (RAS), widely used for wide-area protection, relies on the interconnected networks and data sharing devices, which are exposed to the multitude of vulnerabilities. This paper presents our proposed approach to developing multi-agent based RAS scheme against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Specifically, we propose the two-level hierarchical architecture which consists of distributed local RAS controllers (RAScs) as local agents, operating at different zones/ areas, which are constantly monitored by an overseer, the central agent. The local controllers receive local and randomly changing outside zonal measurements and cyclically forwards to the overseer. The overseer identifies the corrupted controller using the anomaly detection algorithm which processes the measurements coming from the local controllers, compute measurement errors using local and outside zonal measurements, perform validation checks, and finally detect anomalies based on the two-step verification. Next, as a proof of concept, we have implemented and validated the proposed methodology in cyber physical environment at Iowa State’s PowerCyber testbed. We have also implemented the coordinated attack vectors which involve corrupting the local controller and later performing stealthy attacks on the system’s generator. We have evaluated its performance during the online testing in terms of detection rate and Iatency. The experimental results show that it is efficient in detecting different classes of attacks, including ramp and pulse attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2018

Solid Mechanics Code Verification: Contrasting Classical and Manufactured Reference Solutions

Verification results for Sierra/SM using inexact reference solutions have often exhibited unsatisfactory convergence behavior. With an understanding of the convergence behavior for these types of tests, one can avoid falsely attributing pathologies of the test with incorrectness of the code. Simple theoretical results highlight that for an inexact reference solution two conditions must be met to observe asymptotic convergence. These conditions, and the resulting types of convergence behaviors, are further illustrated with graphical examples depicting the exact, inexact reference, and sequence of numerical solutions as vectors (in a function space). A stress concentration problem is adopted to contrast convergence behaviors when using inexact (classical linear elastic) and exact (manufactured) reference solutions. Convergence is not initially attained with the classical solution. Convergence with the manufactured solution indicates the convergence failure with the classical reference did not result from code error and provides insight on how for this problem asymptotic convergence could be attained with the classical reference solution by modifying the computational models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computation of the Biot–Savart line integral with higher-order convergence using straight segments

One common approach to computing the magnetic field produced by a filamentary current-carrying coil is to approximate the coil as a series of straight segments. The Biot–Savart field from each straight segment is analytically known. However, if the endpoints of the straight segments are chosen to lie on the coil, then the accuracy of the Biot–Savart computation is generally only the second order in the number of endpoints. In this work, we propose a simple modification: shift each end point of the coil in the outward normal direction by an amount proportional to the local curvature. With this modification, the Biot–Savart accuracy increases to the fourth order and the numerical error is dramatically reduced for a given number of discretization points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Order Modeling conditioned on monitored features for response and error bounds estimation in engineered systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) form essential tools across engineering domains by virtue of their function as surrogates for computationally intensive digital twinning simulators. Although purely data-driven methods are available for ROM construction, schemes that allow to retain a portion of the physics tend to enhance the interpretability and generalization of ROMs. However, physics-based techniques can adversely scale when dealing with nonlinear systems that feature parametric dependencies. This study introduces a generative physics-based ROM that is suited for nonlinear systems with parametric dependencies and is additionally able to provide numerical error bounds associated with the respective estimates. A main contribution of this work is the conditioning of these parametric ROMs to features that can be derived from monitoring measurements, feasibly in an online fashion. This is contrary to most existing ROM schemes, which remain restricted to the prescription of the physics-based, and usually a priori unknown, system parameters. Our work utilizes conditional Variational Autoencoders to continuously map the required reduction bases to a feature vector extracted from limited output measurements, while additionally allowing for a probabilistic assessment of the ROM-estimated Quantities of Interest. An auxiliary task using a neural network-based parametrization of suitable probability distributions is introduced to re-establish the link with physical model parameters. We verify the proposed scheme on a series of simulated case studies incorporating effects of geometric and material nonlinearity under parametric dependencies related to system properties and input load characteristics.

Conditional VAEs↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structure Sensitive Reaction Kinetics of Chiral Molecules on Intrinsically Chiral Surfaces

Enantiospecific heterogeneous catalysis utilizes chiral surfaces to resolve enantiomers via structure sensitive surface chemistry. The catalyst design challenge is the identification of chiral surface structures that maximize enantiospecificity. Herein, we develop data driven models for the enantiospecificity of tartaric acid reactions on chiral Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces. Measurements of enantiospecific rate constants were obtained by using curved Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces that enable kinetic measurements on hundreds of chiral surface orientations. One model uses feature vectors derived from generalized coordination numbers to capture the local structure around Cu atoms exposed by the Cu(hkl) R&S surfaces. The second model introduces the use of chiral cubic harmonic functions to capture the symmetry constraints of the face-centered cubic Cu structure. The model using 58 generalized coordination numbers has a fitting error similar to that of the model using only 5 cubic harmonic functions. The two models predict maxima in the enantiospecificity on surfaces with very similar surface orientations. The models developed in this work are applicable for any enantiospecific reaction happening on any chiral material with a cubic lattice structure, opening the way to understanding the surface structure sensitivity of the enantiospecific reaction kinetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗