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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient distribution system leveraging distributed generation and microgrids: a review

With the aging of electricity transmission and distribution infrastructures and increasing intensity of extreme weather events, the aggravated vulnerability of electric distribution systems to extreme weather events has motivated the study of resilient distribution systems. This study presents a review of the state-of-the-art research on distribution grid resilience. First, the definition and quantifying metrics of resilience in the electrical distribution system are summarised. Second, the long-term and short-term measures to enhance the distribution system resilience are discussed. In particular, the recent studies on distributed generation and microgrid-assisted resilience enhancements are reviewed. Finally, recommendations for future research are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Reliability and Resilience in Challenging Climates

Challenging climates for Photovoltaics are usually based on climate classification. However, extreme weather events such as high wind, flooding, large hail, extreme snow etc. have become more ubiquitous globally. To study the impact of extraordinary weather events on PV reliability we used two of the largest databases in the USA. First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database on extreme weather and secondly, the PV Fleet Data Initiative where we have collected high-resolution PV performance data of more than 8 gigawatts or about 6-7% of all commercial and utility systems in the USA. We analyzed almost 200 systems between 2008-20022 that were immediately impacted by these weather events. The immediate impact (outages) was determined to be about 1% of or a median of approximately 3 days of annual lost production. However, the risk these events pose is exemplified by a long tail where 0.4 % of all systems lost more than 2 weeks annual production. We also found a threshold for high wind (90 km/hr) and hail (25mm), above which we observed significantly higher degradation implying long-term damage to the systems. In addition, we are using satellite imagery to quantify visible damage to PV plants. Finally, we share module, design and installation lessons from some observed case studies to improve extreme weather resilience for PV power systems.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗
DOE OSTI2023

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

File Specification for MERRA-2 Climate Statistics Products

The Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains a wealth of information that can be used for weather and climate studies. By combining the assimilation of observations with a frozen version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a global analysis is produced at an hourly temporal resolution spanning from January 1980 through present (Gelaro et al., 2017). It can be difficult to parse through a multidecadal dataset such as MERRA-2 to evaluate the interannual variability of weather that occurs on a daily timescale, let alone determine the occurrence of an extreme weather event. Furthermore, it was recognized that standard metrics were needed to evaluate climate change among climate models and international research efforts. As a result of these concerns, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) developed a set of indices that represent the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events using a daily time series of 2-m air temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Alexander et al., 2016). These indices were used as a basis to comprise a list of fields that represent daily extreme temperature and precipitation events, heatwaves, multi-day precipitation, as well monthly percentile statistics from the MERRA-2 dataset. Also included in this data product is a climatological long term mean and standard deviation representing the interannual variability on a monthly timescale.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with damaging floods, prolonged drought, destructive wildfires, agricultural challenges, compromised human health, vulnerable infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems and species. Often, the steady and progressive trends (or presses) of rising global temperature are the central focus in how climate impacts are described. However, observations of extreme weather events (or pulses) increasingly show that the intensity, duration and/or frequency of acute events are also changing, resulting in greater impacts on communities and the environment. Describing how the influence of extreme events may shape water management in the Colorado River Basin in clear terms is critical to sound future planning and efforts to manage risk. Three scenario planning workshops in 2019 and 2020 were held as part of a Colorado River Conversations series, identifying potential impacts from multiple intersecting extreme events. Water managers identified climate-related events of concern in the Colorado River Basin that necessitate greater attention and adaptive responses. To support efforts to include consideration of climate-change-driven extremes in water management and planning, we explore the current state of knowledge at the confluence of long-term climate shifts and extreme weather in the Colorado River Basin related to the events of concern that were identified by scenario planning participants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes Impact on Power System Outage

This paper provides statistical analysis of the characteristics of power system outages to gain a better understanding of the impacts of the increasing severe weather conditions on the outages. 10-year historical power system outage data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were gathered together with co-located weather attributes and recorded extreme weather events in the service area, which are paired in comparable spatial and temporal scales, with a focus on each outage transmission line. Statistical frequency analysis and cross-tabular evaluation are performed to investigate the occurring frequency and duration of outages associated with extreme weather in this area of study. The study reveals that the weather-related outages can be mainly attributed to hail and thunderstorm events which correspond to up to 60% out of all failures in several transmission line types.

Ren, Huiying↗
NASA NTRS2016

Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context: Activities of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2020

Will Solar Panels Help When the Power Goes Out? Planning for PV Resilience

PV systems, like all energy systems, must chart a difficult course in order to improve resilience. They need to simultaneously withstand extreme conditions that cause grid power disruptions, be configured in a way that allows electricity to be delivered to meet the PV user's needs, and overcome disruptions arising from solar resource intermittency. Certain considerations reveal themselves as key to a PV system's resilience benefits. Choice of hardware is critical, as is site selection for the PV array. Voluminous evidence in a hurricane context demonstrates that durable hardware, properly maintained and sited, leads to PV systems surviving extreme weather with their functionality intact. Structurally weak or poorly maintained PV equipment, on the other hand, has demonstrated failures during extreme weather events. PV system stakeholders should ensure that best practices are followed for hardware procurement and siting. It is also important to understand that PV systems are not one-size-fits-all. While incorporating islanding capabilities and energy storage into the system's electrical topology will typically enhance resilience, the user's needs will determine the optimally resilient conformation of any given system. These factors - appropriate hardware, siting, maintenance, and system design - are the primary drivers of PV resilience. PV systems possess high potential for resilient energy generation due to their distributed, abundant, and free fuel supply, but the technology itself does not inherently lead to resilient outcomes. Realizing PV's potential for resilience requires consideration of these determinative factors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗