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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle: a review

Abstract Aided by progress in the theoretical understanding, new knowledge on tropical rainfall annual cycle changes under a global warming background has been advanced in the past decade. In this review, we focus on recent advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle, including its four distinct features: amplitude, spatial pattern shift, phase and wet/dry season length changes. Here, amplitude refers to the local summer-winter rainfall contrast and phase refers to the timing of rainfall annual cycle. In a warming climate, the amplitude is enhanced, more evidently over ocean, while the phase is delayed, mainly over land. The former is explained by the wet-get-wetter mechanism and the latter is explained by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and increased convective barrier. The phase delay over land has already emerged in the past four decades. The spatial pattern shift under warming is marked by two features: equatorward shift of the ITCZ throughout the year and the land-to-ocean precipitation shift in the rainy season. The former is explained by the upped-ante mechanism and/or related to the enhanced equatorial warming in a warmer world. The latter may be caused by the opposite land and ocean surface temperature annual cycle changes in the tropics. Over tropical rainforest regions such as Amazon and Congo Basin, the dry season has lengthened in the recent decades, but the fundamental reason is still unclear. Despite the notable progress in the research of tropical rainfall annual cycle change, many gaps remain in understanding its mechanisms, quantifying and attributing its historical emergence, narrowing the inter-model uncertainty of its future projections, and evaluating its global impact, motivating future work guided by some directions proposed in this review.

Song, Fengfei (ORCID:0000000230041749)↗
NASA NTRS1988

A flexible telemetry processor for spacecraft testing

In the past, telemetry data systems in support of JPL flight projects were designed specifically for each mission. The Magellan System Test Data Processing Subsystem (STDPS) marks a departure from these past designs. For the first time, a reusable telemetry-processing subsystem has been designed that is flexible enough to meet the spacecraft-testing requirements of the present project, and can be easily changed for future projects as well. These changes are all accomplished through a user-friendly, menu-oriented interface. Extensive software reprogramming is no longer required.

Leng, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2000

The GOCART Model Study of Aerosol Composition and Radiative Forcing: Present and Future

The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate sulfate, dust, carbonaceous, and sea salt aerosols. The simulations are conducted using the present and future emission scenarios based on the IPCC projection. Distributions of individual aerosol components for the present day are compared with observations from field experiments, ground-based sun photometer networks, and remote sensing. Aerosol radiative forcing for the present day and the projected future will also be discussed.

Chin, Mian↗
NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model User's Guide

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model, Supplement

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

process-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Accelerometer IMU-2: An Interim Development Report

This report details the development of DAIMU-2, a MEMS accelerometer-based Gyro-Free Inertial Measurement Unit (GF-IMU). Previously, a GF-IMU called the Distributed Accelerometer IMU (DAIMU) was developed at LLNL using traditional analog accelerometers. This project leverages the experience gained from DAIMU and recent advances in sensor and embedded systems technology to develop DAIMU-2. The report introduces the theory and mathematics of a GF-IMU, followed by the design of an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) and simulation results. Finally, the DAIMU-2 prototypes developed to date are presented. After approximately one year of development work, the project was suspended, to be resumed in the future. Because of this, some efforts were partially completed, and this report attempts to indicate areas where further work is needed. MATLAB files, drawings, and other design documents have been archived for future project resumption.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Overview of Electric Propulsion Activities at NASA

This paper provides an overview of NASA s activities in the area of electric propulsion with an emphasis on project directions, recent progress, and a view of future project directions. The goals of the electric propulsion programs are to develop key technologies to enable new and ambitious science missions and to transfer these technologies to industry. Activities include the development of gridded ion thruster technology, Hall thruster technology, pulsed plasma thruster technology, and very high power electric propulsion technology, as well as systems technology that supports practical implementation of these advanced concepts. The performance of clusters of ion and Hall thrusters is being revisited. Mission analyses, based on science requirements and preliminary mission specifications, guide the technology projects and introduce mission planners to new capabilities. Significant in-house activity, with strong industrial/academia participation via contracts and grants, is maintained to address these development efforts. NASA has initiated a program covering nuclear powered spacecraft that includes both reactor and radioisotope power sources. This has provided an impetus to investigate higher power and higher specific impulse thruster systems. NASA continues to work closely with both supplier and user communities to maximize the understanding and acceptance of new technology in a timely and cost-effective manner. NASA s electric propulsion efforts are closely coordinated with Department of Defense and other national programs to assure the most effective use of available resources. Several NASA Centers are actively involved in these electric propulsion activities, including, the Glenn Research Center, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Johnson Space Center, and Marshall Space Flight Center.

Dunning, John W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Charting the Course: Life Cycle Management of Mars Mission Digital Information

This viewgraph presentation reviews the life cycle management of MER Project information. This process was an essential key to the successful launch of the MER Project rovers. Incorporating digital information archive requirements early in the project life cycle resulted in: Design of an information system that included archive metadata, Reduced the risk of information loss through in-process appraisal, Easier transfer of project information to institutional online archive and Project appreciation for preserving information for reuse by future projects

information life cycles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

X-57 Systems Engineering Lessons Learned

The X-57 Maxwell is an electric aircraft based on a 4-passenger, twin engine Tecnam P2006T General Aviation aircraft. The X-57 project originally envisioned a straightforward integration of commercial-off-the-shelf hardware components and software into a novel configuration to demonstrate the aerodynamic and performance benefits of Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP). The project was initially started with a high-risk venture capitalist approach under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, which led to an initial philosophy of Project Management “light” (which was then interpreted as Systems Engineering (SE) “light”). As the project matured, it was forced to transition to one with increasing SE-rigor as the project scope changed, hardware and software deficiencies were found, and the team realized the magnitude of the technical and integration challenges. In hindsight, these technical challenges came in part from an overly optimistic technology readiness assessment (TRA) at the beginning of the project, which resulted in the project assuming that little to no subsystem development would be required. The project’s approach to systems engineering evolved throughout three separate informal phases of the project as it underwent two key transitions as a result of the team wrestling with the technical challenges and resultant changing project scope. This paper discusses the assumptions, approaches, and challenges encountered from a Systems Engineering standpoint in each of the three informal phases of the X-57 project. This paper also provides recommendations on how future projects can apply Systems Engineering best practices upfront along with a realistic TRA to aid projects that find themselves with similar challenges.

Systems Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2005

Project Prometheus and Future Entry Probe Missions

A viewgraph presentation on project Prometheus and future entry probe missions is shown. The topics include: 1) What Is Project Prometheus?; 2) What Capabilities Can Project Prometheus Offer? What Mission Types Are Being Considered?; 3) Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO); 4) How Are Mission Opportunities Changing?; 5) Missions Of Interest a Year Ago; 6) Missions Now Being Considered For Further Study; 7) Galileo-Style (Conventional) Probe Delivery; 8) Galileo-Style Probe Support; 9) Conventional Delivery and Support of Multiple Probes; 10) How Entry Probe Delivery From an NEP Vehicle Is Different; and 11) Concluding Remarks.

Spilker, Thomas R.↗