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Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Resource Measurements in Eugene, OR: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-07-00252

Site-specific, long-term, continuous, and high-resolution measurements of solar irradiance are important for developing renewable resource data. These data are used for several research and development activities consistent with the NLR mission: establish a national 3-year climatological database of measured solar irradiances; provide high quality ground-truth data for satellite remote sensing validation; support development of radiative transfer models for estimating solar irradiance from available meteorological observations; provide solar resource information needed for technology deployment and operations. Data acquired under this agreement will be available to the public through NLR's Measurement & Instrumentation Data Center – MIDC (http://www.nlr.gov/midc) Or the Renewable Resource Data Center - RReDC (http://rredc.nlr.gov). The MIDC offers a variety of standard data display, access, and analysis tools designed to address the needs of a wide user audience (e.g., industry, academia, and government interests).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development and analysis of a twelfth degree and order gravity model for Mars

Satellite geodesy techniques previously applied to artificial earth satellites have been extended to obtain a high-resolution gravity field for Mars. Two-way Doppler data collected by 10 Deep Space Network (DSN) stations during Mariner 9 and Viking 1 and 2 missions have been processed to obtain a twelfth degree and order spherical harmonic model for the martian gravitational potential. The quality of this model was evaluated by examining the rms residuals within the fit and the ability of the model to predict the spacecraft state beyond the fit. Both indicators show that more data and higher degree and order harmonics will be required to further refine our knowledge of the martian gravity field. The model presented shows much promise, since it resolves local gravity features which correlate highly with the martian topography. An isostatic analysis based on this model, as well as an error analysis, shows rather complete compensation on a global (long wavelength) scale. Though further model refinements are necessary to be certain, local (short wavelength) features such as the shield volcanos in Tharsis appear to be uncompensated. These are interpreted to place some bounds on the internal structure of Mars.

Christensen, E. J.↗

Unresolved velocity structure in diffuse interstellar clouds

Recent high-resolution observations of interstellar absorption lines of CH and CN toward Zeta Oph obtained by Crane et al. (1986), and Palazzi et al. (1988), exhibit line widths that suggest thermal line broadening at high temperature, T about 1200 K. Observations of CO line emission at 2.6 mm toward Zeta Oph (Langer et al.,1987) indicate that the molecular gas resides in four distinct velocity components that span less than 3 km/s in Doppler velocity. Simulated CH and CN absorption line profiles are compared for high-temperature (T = 1200 K) thermal broadening and for a combination of low-temperature (T = 50 K) thermal plus turbulent broadening. It is shown that the two broadening models reproduce existing observations comparably well and are virtually indistinguishable at a lambda/Delta-lambda ratio of about 100,000. The observed differences in the CH and CN line widths may reflect slightly different distributions of those molecules along the line of sight. The simulations use very recent, improved laboratory spectroscopic data on CH (Bernath). Some related consequences of such unresolved velocity structure on the ultraviolet absorption lines of CO are examined. Indirect diagnostics of temperature in the Zeta Oph cloud favor low-temperature thermal plus turbulent broadening, and the implied rate of dissipation of turbulence is in harmony with estimates of the global input of mechanical energy into to interstellar medium.

Black, John H.↗

New features in Saturn's atmosphere revealed by high-resolution thermal infrared images

Observations of the stratospheric IR emission structure on Saturn are presented. The high-spatial-resolution global images show a variety of new features, including a narrow equatorial belt of enhanced emission at 7.8 micron, a prominent symmetrical north polar hotspot at all three wavelengths, and a midlatitude structure which is asymmetrically brightened at the east limb. The results confirm the polar brightening and reversal in position predicted by recent models for seasonal thermal variations of Saturn's stratosphere.

Gezari, D. Y.↗

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 15: The simulated SesWiFS data set, version 2

This document describes the second version of the simulated SeaWiFS data set. A realistic simulated data set is essential for mission readiness preparations and can potentially assist in all phases of ground support for a future mission. The second version improves on the first version primarily through additional realism and complexity. This version incorporates a representation of virtually every aspect of the flight mission. Thus, it provides a high-fidelity data set for testing several aspects of the ground system, including data acquisition, data processing, data transfers, calibration and validation, quality control, and mission operations. The data set is constructed for a seven-day period, 25-31 March 1994. Specific features of the data set include Global Area coverage (GAC), recorded Local Area Coverage (LAC), and realtime High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data for the seven-day period. A realistic orbit, which is propagated using a Brouwer-Lyddane model with drag, is used to simulate orbit positions. The simulated data corresponds to the command schedule based on the orbit for this seven-day period. It includes total (at-satellite) radiances not only for ocean, but for land, clouds, and ice. The simulation also utilizes a high-resolution land-sea mask. It includes the April 1993 SeaWiFS spectral responses and sensor saturation responses. The simulation is formatted according to July 1993 onboard data structures, which include corresponding telemetry (instrument and spacecraft) data. The methods are described and some examples of the output are given. The instrument response functions made available in April 1993 have been used to produce the Version 2 simulated data. These response functions will change as part of the sensor improvements initiated in July-August 1993.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

On the derivation of coseismic displacement fields using differential radar interferometry: The Landers earthquake

We present a map of the coseimic displacement field resulting from the Landers, California, June 28, 1992, earthquake derived using data acquired from an orbiting high-resolution radar system. We achieve results more accurate than previous space studies and similar in accuracy to those obtained by conventional field survey techniques. Data from the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar instrument acquired in April, July, and August 1992 are used to generate a high-resolution, wide area map of the displacements. The data represent the motion in the direction of the radar line of sight to centimeter level precision of each 30-m resolution element in a 113 km by 90 km image. Our coseismic displacement contour map gives a lobed pattern consistent with theoretical models of the displacement field from the earthquake. Fine structure observed as displacement tiling in regions several kilometers from the fault appears to be the result of local surface fracturing. Comparison of these data with Global Positioning System and electronic distance measurement survey data yield a correlation of 0.96; thus the radar measurements are a means to extend the point measurements acquired by traditional techniques to an area map format. The technique we use is (1) more automatic, (2) more precise, and (3) better validated than previous similar applications of differential radar interferometry. Since we require only remotely sensed satellite data with no additioanl requirements for ancillary information. the technique is well suited for global seismic monitoring and analysis.

Zebker, Howard A.↗

Global Single and Multiple Cloud Classification with a Fuzzy Logic Expert System

An unresolved problem in remote sensing concerns the analysis of satellite imagery containing both single and multiple cloud layers. While cloud parameterizations are very important both in global climate models and in studies of the Earth's radiation budget, most cloud retrieval schemes, such as the bispectral method used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), have no way of determining whether overlapping cloud layers exist in any group of satellite pixels. Coakley (1983) used a spatial coherence method to determine whether a region contained more than one cloud layer. Baum et al. (1995) developed a scheme for detection and analysis of daytime multiple cloud layers using merged AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder) data collected during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus 2 field campaign. Baum et al. (1995) explored the use of a cloud classification technique based on AVHRR data. This study examines the feasibility of applying the cloud classifier to global satellite imagery.

Welch, Ronald M.↗

Cloud Scaling Properties and Cloud Parameterization

Cloud liquid and cloud traction variability is studied as a function of horizontal scale in the ECMWF forecast model during several 10-day runs at the highest available model resolution, recently refined from approximately 60 km (T213) down to approximately 20 km (T639). At higher resolutions, model plane-parallel albedo biases are reduced, so that models may be tuned to have larger, more realistic, cloud liquid water amounts, However, the distribution of cloud liquid assumed -within- each gridbox, for radiative and thermodynamic computations, depends on ad hoc assumptions that are not necessarily consistent with observed scaling properties, or with scaling properties produced by the model at larger scales. To study the larger-scale cloud properties, ten locations on the Earth are chosen to coincide with locations having considerable surface data available for validation, and representing a variety of climatic regimes, scaling exponents are determined from a range or scales down to model resolution, and are re-computed every three hours, separately for low, medium and high clouds, as well as column-integrated cloudiness. Cloud variability fluctuates in time, due to diurnal, synoptic and other' processes, but scaling exponents are found to be relatively stable. various approaches are considered for applying computed cloud scaling to subgrid cloud distributions used for radiation, beyond simple random or maximal overlap now in common use. Considerably more work is needed to compare model cloud scaling with observations. This will be aided by increased availability of high-resolution surface, aircraft and satellite data, and by the increasing resolution of global models,

Cahalan, R. F.↗

Development of a Simulated Data Set for the SeaWiFS Mission

A realistic simulated data set is essential for mission readiness preparations and can potentially assist in all phases of ground support for a future mission. Such a data set was created for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), a global ocean color mission due for launch in 1997. This data set incorporates a representation of virtually every known aspect of the flight mission. Thus, it provides a high fidelity data set for testing most phases of the ground system, Including data processing, data transfers, calibration and validation, quality control, and mission operations. The data set is constructed for a seven-day period, March 25-31, 1994. Specific features of the data set: it includes Global Area Coverage (GAC), recorded Local Area Coverage (LAC), and real-time High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRFIT) data for the seven-day period; it includes a realistic orbit which is propagated using a Brouwer-Lyddane model with drag; the data correspond to a command schedule based on the orbit for this seven-day period; it includes total (at-satellite) radiances for ocean, land, clouds, and ice; it utilizes a high-resolution land/sea mask; it includes actual SeaWiFS spectral responses; it includes the actual sensor saturation responses; it is formatted according to current onboard data structures; and it includes corresponding telemetry (instrument and spacecraft) data. The methods are described and some examples of the output are given.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Sensitivity Studies for Space-Based Global Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is well known as the primary forcing agent of global warming. Although the climate forcing due to CO2 is well known, the sources and sinks of CO2 are not well understood. Currently the lack of global atmospheric CO2 observations limits our ability to diagnose the global carbon budget (e.g., finding the so-called "missing sink") and thus limits our ability to understand past climate change and predict future climate response. Space-based techniques are being developed to make high-resolution and high-precision global column CO2 measurements. One of the proposed techniques utilizes the passive remote sensing of Earth's reflected solar radiation at the weaker vibration-rotation band of CO2 in the near infrared (approx. 1.57 micron). We use a line-by-line radiative transfer model to explore the potential of this method. Results of sensitivity studies for CO2 concentration variation and geophysical conditions (i.e., atmospheric temperature, surface reflectivity, solar zenith angle, aerosol, and cirrus cloud) will be presented. We will also present sensitivity results for an O2 A-band (approx. 0.76 micron) sensor that will be needed along with CO2 to make surface pressure and cloud height measurements.

Mao, Jian-Ping↗

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Chen, Baode↗

High-Resolution Gravity and Time-Varying Gravity Field Recovery using GRACE and CHAMP

This progress report summarizes the research work conducted under NASA's Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Program 1998 (SENH98) entitled High Resolution Gravity and Time Varying Gravity Field Recovery Using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and CHAMP (Challenging Mini-satellite Package for Geophysical Research and Applications), which included a no-cost extension time period. The investigation has conducted pilot studies to use the simulated GRACE and CHAMP data and other in situ and space geodetic observable, satellite altimeter data, and ocean mass variation data to study the dynamic processes of the Earth which affect climate change. Results from this investigation include: (1) a new method to use the energy approach for expressing gravity mission data as in situ measurements with the possibility to enhance the spatial resolution of the gravity signal; (2) the method was tested using CHAMP and validated with the development of a mean gravity field model using CHAMP data, (3) elaborate simulation to quantify errors of tides and atmosphere and to recover hydrological and oceanic signals using GRACE, results show that there are significant aliasing effect and errors being amplified in the GRACE resonant geopotential and it is not trivial to remove these errors, and (4) quantification of oceanic and ice sheet mass changes in a geophysical constraint study to assess their contributions to global sea level change, while the results improved significant over the use of previous studies using only the SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging)-determined zonal gravity change data, the constraint could be further improved with additional information on mantle rheology, PGR (Post-Glacial Rebound) and ice loading history. A list of relevant presentations and publications is attached, along with a summary of the SENH investigation generated in 2000.

Shum, C. K.↗

The Importance of Chaos and Lenticulae on Europa for the JIMO Mission

The Galileo Solid State Imaging (SSI) experiment provided high-resolution images of Europa's surface allowing identification of surface features barely distinguishable at Voyager's resolution. SSI revealed the visible pitting on Europa's surface to be due to large disrupted features, chaos, and smaller sub-circular patches, lenticulae. Chaos features contain a hummocky matrix material and commonly contain dislocated blocks of ridged plains. Lenticulae are morphologically interrelated and can be divided into three classes: domes, spots, and micro-chaos. Domes are broad, upwarped features that generally do not disrupt the texture of the ridged plains. Spots are areas of low albedo that are generally smooth in texture compared to other units. Micro-chaos are disrupted features with a hummocky matrix material, resembling that observed within chaos regions. Chaos and lenticulae are ubiquitous in the SSI regional map observations, which average approximately 200 meters per pixel (m/pxl) in resolution, and appear in several of the ultra-high resolution, i.e., better than 50 m/pxl, images of Europa as well. SSI also provided a number of multi-spectral observations of chaos and lenticulae. Using this dataset we have undertaken a thorough study of the morphology, size, spacing, stratigraphy, and color of chaos and lenticulae to determine their properties and evaluate models of their formation. Geological mapping indicates that chaos and micro-chaos have a similar internal morphology of in-situ degradation suggesting that a similar process was operating during their formation. The size distribution denotes a dominant size of 4-8 km in diameter for features containing hummocky material (i.e., chaos and micro-chaos). Results indicate a dominant spacing of 15 - 36 km apart. Chaos and lenticulae are generally among the youngest features stratigraphically observed on the surface, suggesting a recent change in resurfacing style. Also, the reddish non-icy materials on Europa's surface have high concentrations in many chaos and lenticulae features. Nonetheless, a complete global map of the distribution of chaos and lenticulae is not possible with the SSI dataset. Only <20% of the surface has been imaged at 200 m/pxl or better resolution, mostly of the near-equatorial regions. Color and ultra-high-res images have much less surface coverage. Thus we suggest that full global imaging of Europa at 200 m/pxl or better resolution, preferably in multi-spectral wavelengths, should be a high priority for the JIMO mission.

Spaun, Nicole A.↗

The NASA Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP)

The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Cline, D.↗

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Atlas, R.↗

Improved Thin Cirrus and Terminator Cloud Detection in CERES Cloud Mask

Thin cirrus clouds account for about 20-30% of the total cloud coverage and affect the global radiation budget by increasing the Earth's albedo and reducing infrared emissions. Thin cirrus, however, are often underestimated by traditional satellite cloud detection algorithms. This difficulty is caused by the lack of spectral contrast between optically thin cirrus and the surface in techniques that use visible (0.65 micron ) and infrared (11 micron ) channels. In the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Aqua Edition 1 (AEd1) and Terra Edition 3 (TEd3) Cloud Masks, thin cirrus detection is significantly improved over both land and ocean using a technique that combines MODIS high-resolution measurements from the 1.38 and 11 micron channels and brightness temperature differences (BTDs) of 11-12, 8.5-11, and 3.7-11 micron channels. To account for humidity and view angle dependencies, empirical relationships were derived with observations from the 1.38 micron reflectance and the 11-12 and 8.5-11 micron BTDs using 70 granules of MODIS data in 2002 and 2003. Another challenge in global cloud detection algorithms occurs near the day/night terminator where information from the visible 0.65 micron channel and the estimated solar component of 3.7 micron channel becomes less reliable. As a result, clouds are often underestimated or misidentified near the terminator over land and ocean. Comparisons between the CLAVR-x (Clouds from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR]) cloud coverage and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) measurements north of 60 N indicate significant amounts of missing clouds from CLAVR-x because this part of the world was near the day/night terminator viewed by AVHRR. Comparisons between MODIS cloud products (MOD06) and GLAS in the same region also show similar difficulties with MODIS cloud retrievals. The consistent detection of clouds through out the day is needed to provide reliable cloud and radiation products for CERES and other research efforts involving the modeling of clouds and their interaction with the radiation budget.

Trepte, Qing↗

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗