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Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning
The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.
Sampling and Analysis of Impact Crater Residues Found on the Wide Field Planetary Camera-2 Radiator
After nearly 16 years in low Earth orbit (LEO), the Wide Field Planetary Camera-2 (WFPC2) was recovered from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in May 2009, during the 12 day shuttle mission designated STS-125. The WFPC-2 radiator had been struck by approximately 700 impactors producing crater features 300 microns and larger in size. Following optical inspection in 2009, agreement was reached for joint NASA-ESA study of crater residues, in 2011. Over 480 impact features were extracted at NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC) Space Exposed Hardware clean-room and curation facility during 2012, and were shared between NASA and ESA. We describe analyses conducted using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) - energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDX): by NASA at JSC's Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Division; and for ESA at the Natural History Museum (NHM), with Ion beam analysis (IBA) using a scanned proton microbeam at the University of Surrey Ion Beam Centre (IBC).
A Statistical Analysis of Impact Ice Adhesion Strength Data Acquired with a Modified Lap Joint Test
Numerous methodologies have been utilized to measure the adhesion strength of impact ice, and the data reported in the literature varies significantly from method to method. In order to initiate an investigation to determine the cause of this disparity, a lap-joint shear test methodology that was recently developed was utilized in the Icing Research Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Data was obtained while varying the temperature, test section velocity, liquid water content, and cloud droplet median volumetric diameter, among other parameters, over five campaigns. A new data set acquired using this new test method is presented. The results are analyzed with standard statistical methodologies and demonstrate a strong correlation between the apparent adhesion strength of ice and temperature, annealing time, and heating time. Observations during the test and analysis of the results suggest the presence of large residual stresses in the samples, which is in agreement with prior work. Due to the nature of the test methodology, and all known ice adhesion test methodologies, the measured, or apparent, adhesion strength is geometry dependent, a fact emphasized by the results presented here. The data was organized both cumulatively and independently by result code. Trends in the data are discussed in the context of causal physical mechanisms. The data shows the apparent adhesion strength was not linear with temperature, liquid water content, annealing time, and other variables. Short-term heating of the samples was shown to have negligible effect, and the apparent adhesion strength had a flat trend with velocity.
Climatic clustering and longitudinal analysis with impacts on food, bioenergy, and pandemics
Predicted growth in world population will put unparalleled stress on the need for sustainable energy and global food production, as well as increase the likelihood of future pandemics. In this work, we identify high-resolution environmental zones in the context of a changing climate and predict longitudinal processes relevant to these challenges. We do this using exhaustive vector comparison methods that measure the climatic similarity between all locations on earth at high geospatial resolution relative to global-scale analyses. The results are captured as networks, in which edges between geolocations are defined if their historical climate similarities exceed a threshold. We apply Markov clustering and our novel Correlation of Correlations method to the resulting climatic networks, which provides unprecedented agglomerative and longitudinal views of climatic relationships across the globe. The methods performed here resulted in the fastest (9.37x10 18 operations/sec) and one of the largest (168.7x10 21 operations) scientific computations ever performed, with more than 100 quadrillion edges considered for a single climatic network. Our climatic analysis reveals areas of the world experiencing rapid environmental changes, which can have important implications for global carbon fluxes and zoonotic spillover events. Correlation and network analyses of this kind are widely applicable across computational and predictive biology domains, including systems biology, ecology, carbon cycles, biogeochemistry, and zoonosis research.
Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches
One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.
Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms
Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.
Phase II Cost-Benefit Analysis: Economic Impact Assessment For Indonesia Building Sector Whole-Building Cooling Solutions
The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 US–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub working groups (SWGs): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects.
Analysis of impact of Busch Gardens expansion on air quality of surrounding area
This report is concerned primarily with the increase in carbon monoxide concentrations and hydrocarbon concentrations induced by the projected increased traffic that would be associated with the parking facilities planned to support the expansion of Busch Gardens (Virginia) planned for the summar of 1976. Of primary concern is the integrated effect of the increased traffic that will be handled by existing facilities and an enlarged parking lot across the highway from the main Busch Garden attraction.
Z-model analysis of impact cratering - An overview
The Maxwell Z-Model has been applied to two continuum mechanics computer calculations: (1) a laboratory-scale impact of an aluminum projectile into plasticene clay, and (2) a planetary-scale impact of an iron meteor into gabbroic anorthosite. The material flow in the cratering flow field may be well approximated by incompressible flow for most of the excavation stage of crater growth. The center of the flow field is located beneath, not at, the surface. Soon after energy partitioning is complete, Z can assume values less than 2.0 associated with the initial directedness of the projectile's momentum. The Z-Model parameters are time dependent during a significant portion of the crater growth time, and Z increases steadily with time from about 2.0 or slightly less at the beginning of the excavation stage to level off at values in the neighborhood of about 3.0 before the excavation stage is half-over.
Analysis of impact crater arrangement on the Venutian surface (from photographic materials of the Venera-15 and -16 spacecraft)
For the first time the population of impact structures on the entire surface of Venus photographed by the Venera-15 and Venera-16 space vehicles is discussed. Distribution of impact craters by classes and as a whole is presented. It is found that the average age of the craters observed is approximately one billion years.
Analysis of impact response in composite plates
The problem of impact is of considerable interest in laminated composite materials. Although important contributions have been made in the understanding the impact problem through numerical solutions, an analytical solution has not been available for the problem of impact of laminated plates. The present work gives an analytical solution to this problem, based on the usual Fourier series expansion for simply-supported plates, combined with Laplace transform techniques for the impact problem solution.
Description, analysis and impact of major solar activity during recent U.S. Shuttle missions
Since STS-26, three large solar events have occurred during Shuttle missions: a geomagnetic storm during STS-29 and solar particle events (SPEs) during STS-28 and -34. The maximum dose to a crew attributed to an SPE was estimated to be 30 micro-Gy. Time-resolved dosimetry measurements of the SPE dose during STS-28 were made using the USAF Radiation Monitoring Equipment. Comparison of calculated and measured dose demonstrated a discrepancy, possibly a result of deficiencies in the geomagnetic cutoff model used. This experience demonstrates that dose from an SPE is strongly dependent on numerous factors such as orbit inclination, SPE start time, spectral parameters and geomagnetic field conditions; the exact combination of these factors is fortuitous. New sources of data and procedures are being investigated, including real-time tracking of auroral oval positions or determination of particle cutoff latitudes, for incorporation into operational Shuttle radiation support practices.
An Acoustic Emission and Acousto-Ultrasonic Analysis of Impact Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels
The research presented herein summarizes the development of acoustic emission (AE) and acousto-ultrasonic (AU) techniques for the nondestructive evaluation of filament wound composite pressure vessels. Vessels fabricated from both graphite and kevlar fibers with an epoxy matrix were examined prior to hydroburst using AU and during hydroburst using AE. A dead weight drop apparatus featuring both blunt and sharp impactor tips was utilized to produce a single known energy 'damage' level in each of the vessels so that the degree to which the effects of impact damage could be measured. The damage levels ranged from barely visible to obvious fiber breakage and delamination. Independent neural network burst pressure prediction models were developed from a sample of each fiber/resin material system. Here, the cumulative AE amplitude distribution data collected from low level proof test (25% of the expected burst for undamaged vessels) were used to measure the effects of the impact on the residual burst pressure of the vessels. The results of the AE/neural network model for the inert propellant filled graphite/epoxy vessels 'IM7/3501-6, IM7/977-2 and IM7/8553-45' demonstrated that burst pressures can be predicted from low level AE proof test data, yielding an average error of 5.0%. The trained network for the IM7/977-2 class vessels was also able to predict the expected burst pressure of taller vessels (three times longer hoop region length) constructed of the same material and using the same manufacturing technique, with an average error of 4.9%. To a lesser extent, the burst pressure prediction models could also measure the effects of impact damage to the kevlar/epoxy 'Kevlar 49/ DPL862' vessels. Here though, due to the higher attenuation of the material, an insufficient amount of AE amplitude information was collected to generate robust network models. Although, the worst case trial errors were less than 6%, when additional blind predictions were attempted, errors as high as 50% were produced. An acousto-ultrasonic robotic evaluation system (AURES) was developed for mapping the effects of damage on filament wound pressure vessels prior to hydroproof testing. The AURES injects a single broadband ultrasonic pulse into each vessel at preprogrammed positions and records the effects of the interaction of that pulse on the material volume with a broadband receiver. A stress wave factor in the form of the energy associated with the 750 to 1000 kHz and 1000 to 1250 kHz frequency bands were used to map the potential failure sites for each vessel. The energy map associated with the graphite/epoxy vessels was found to decrease in the region of the impact damage. The kevlar vessels showed the opposite trend, with the energy values increasing around the damage/failure sites.
Analysis of Impact Induced Damage and its Effect on Structural Integrity of Space Flight Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels
The objective of this research work has been to provide analytical background and support to the ongoing experimental program at NASA, White Sands Test Facility, involving testing composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV) for impact damage and cyclic pressurization. Preliminary theoretical basis, including the governing equations for a shallow shell subjected to internal pressure, has been established. Effects of the Griffith type cracks on the structural integrity of the cylindrical vessel were evaluated by methods of Fracture Mechanics. The results indicate that the effective mass of the pressure vessel is an important factor influencing the response to impact events. We also have found that the material properties of the target, contained in the constitutive equations of the composite attached to the Aluminum liner, dominate the impact event in the low velocity range, the material properties become less important, while the target mass distribution and the impactor mass become more significant as the velocity of the impactor increases. Therefore, at high-velocity impact it is not only the kinetic energy of the impactor but also its mass which has a significant effect on the dynamics of the event, and consequently on the induced damage. This work also suggests a methodology for an assessment of the rate of loading effects on the degradation of the material toughness associated with a high-velocity impact where the rate effects become significant. To model the rate dependence of the material response a viscoelastic-plastic constitutive equations were assumed, and on this basis predictions are made regarding the rate dependent material resistance curve. Other dynamic phenomena associated with the impact event have been treated in the framework of the Computational Mechanics using the courtesy of Prof. P. Guebelle and his graduate student at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who have an access to a super-fast computer located on their campus. Finally, the guidelines for a follow-up research program are provided in the body of this report. They address three major areas: theoretical research, numerical studies, and further experimental work.
The Empirical Analysis of Impact of Alliances on Airline Operations
Airline alliances are dominating the current air transport industry with the largest carriers of the world belonging to one of the four alliance groupings - "Wings", Star Alliance, one world, SkyTeam - which represent 56% of world Revenue Passenger Kilometers. Although much research has been carried out to evaluate the impact of alliance membership on performance of airlines, it would be of interest to ascertain the degree of impact perceived by participating airlines in alliances. It is the purpose of this paper to gather the opinion of all the airlines, belonging to the four global alliance groupings on the impact alliances have had on their traffic and on their performance in general To achieve this, a comprehensive survey of the alliance management departments of airlines participating in the four global strategic alliances was carried out. With this framework the survey has examined which type of cooperation among carriers (FFP, Code Share, Strategic Alliance without antitrust immunity, Strategic Alliance with antitrust immunity) has produced the most positive impact on traffic and which type of route (short haul, long haul, hub-hub, hub-non hub, non hub-non hub) has been mostly affected. In addition, the respondent airlines quantified the effect alliances have had on specific areas of their operation, such as load factors, traffic, costs, revenue and fares. Their responses have been analysed under each global alliances grouping, under airline and under geographic region to establish which group, type of carrier and geographic region has benefited most. The results show that each of the four global alliances groupings has experienced different results according to the type of collaboration agreed amongst their member airlines.
FAA Development of Reliable Modeling Methodologies for Fan Blade Out Containment Analysis: Ballistic Impact Testing - Part 2
This report summarizes the ballistic impact testing that was conducted to provide validation data for the development of numerical models of blade out events in fabric containment systems. The ballistic impact response of two different fiber materials - Kevlar 49 (E.I. DuPont Nemours and Company) and Zylon AS (Toyobo Co., Ltd.) was studied by firing metal projectiles into dry woven fabric specimens using a gas gun. The shape, mass, orientation and velocity of the projectile were varied and recorded. In most cases the tests were designed such that the projectile would perforate the specimen, allowing measurement of the energy absorbed by the fabric. The results for both Zylon and Kevlar presented here represent a useful set of data for the purposes of establishing and validating numerical models for predicting the response of fabrics under conditions simulating those of a jet engine blade release situations. In addition some useful empirical observations were made regarding the effects of projectile orientation and the relative performance of the different materials.
Sampling and Analysis of Impact Crater Residues Found on the Wide Field Planetary Camera-2 Radiator
No abstract available