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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Implementing Scientific Simulation Codes Highly Tailored for Vector Architectures Using Custom Configurable Computing Machines

The motivation for this work comes from an observation that amidst the push for Massively Parallel (MP) solutions to high-end computing problems such as numerical physical simulations, large amounts of legacy code exist that are highly optimized for vector supercomputers. Because re-hosting legacy code often requires a complete re-write of the original code, which can be a very long and expensive effort, this work examines the potential to exploit reconfigurable computing machines in place of a vector supercomputer to implement an essentially unmodified legacy source code. Custom and reconfigurable computing resources could be used to emulate an original application's target platform to the extent required to achieve high performance. To arrive at an architecture that delivers the desired performance subject to limited resources involves solving a multi-variable optimization problem with constraints. Prior research in the area of reconfigurable computing has demonstrated that designing an optimum hardware implementation of a given application under hardware resource constraints is an NP-complete problem. The premise of the approach is that the general issue of applying reconfigurable computing resources to the implementation of an application, maximizing the performance of the computation subject to physical resource constraints, can be made a tractable problem by assuming a computational paradigm, such as vector processing. This research contributes a formulation of the problem and a methodology to design a reconfigurable vector processing implementation of a given application that satisfies a performance metric. A generic, parametric, architectural framework for vector processing implemented in reconfigurable logic is developed as a target for a scheduling/mapping algorithm that maps an input computation to a given instance of the architecture. This algorithm is integrated with an optimization framework to arrive at a specification of the architecture parameters that attempts to minimize execution time, while staying within resource constraints. The flexibility of using a custom reconfigurable implementation is exploited in a unique manner to leverage the lessons learned in vector supercomputer development. The vector processing framework is tailored to the application, with variable parameters that are fixed in traditional vector processing. Benchmark data that demonstrates the functionality and utility of the approach is presented. The benchmark data includes an identified bottleneck in a real case study example vector code, the NASA Langley Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) application.

Rutishauser, David↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPARC-X: Quantum simulations at extreme scale - reactive dynamics from first principles

We have developed the massively parallel electronic structure code SPARC-X: a computational framework for performing Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations that can scale linearly with the number of atoms in the system, while being able to leverage petascale and emerging exascale parallel computers to study chemical phenomena at unprecedented length and time scales. SPARC-X exploits a recent breakthrough in electronic structure methodologies: systematically improvable, strictly local, orthonormal, discontinuous real-space bases that efficiently and systematically capture the local chemistry of the system. With further adaptation using new machine-learning techniques and the use of the massively parallel Spectral Quadrature (SQ) electronic structure method, the algorithmic complexity and prefactor associated with DFT calculations involving semilocal as well as hybrid functionals are dramatically reduced. Using petascale computational resources, SPARC-X enables quantum mechanical simulations at length and time scales previously accessible only by empirical approaches, e.g., 1,000,000 atoms for a few picoseconds using semilocal functionals or 1,000 atoms for a few picoseconds using hybrid functionals. Using exascale resources, the sizes and times targeted are two orders of magnitude larger. Such a capability has applications in a wide variety of chemical sciences, including reactive interfaces where large length- and/or long time-scales are needed and traditional force fields fail. This is particularly important in dynamic catalysis, where bond breaking and formation must be understood in detail. We developed, tested, and employed the SPARC-X framework to understand the photocatalytic properties of TiO 2 nanoparticles, revealing finite size effects that cannot be captured with standard model systems or functionals. This integrated development and application strategy ensures that SPARC-X remains a robust, efficient, and scalable software package for quantum simulations on current petascale and emerging exascale computing resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON Robustness and Performance Improvements

BISON is a modern finite-element based nuclear fuel performance code that has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (USA) since 2009 [1]. The code is applicable to both steady and transient fuel behavior and can be used to analyze 1D (spherically symmetric), 2D (axisymmetric and generalized plane strain) or 3D geometries. BISON is the fuel performance code used within CASL for LWR fuel under both normal operating and accident conditions. BISON is built using the INL Multiphysics ObjectOriented Simulation Environment, or MOOSE [2, 3]. MOOSE is a massively parallel, finite element-based framework to solve systems of coupled non-linear partial differential equations using the Jacobian-Free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method [4]. This enables investigation of computationally large problems, for example a full stack of discrete pellets in a LWR fuel rod, or every rod in a full reactor core. MOOSE supports the use of complex two and three-dimensional meshes and uses implicit time integration, important for the widely varied time scale in nuclear fuel simulation. An object-oriented architecture is employed which greatly minimizes the programming effort required to add new material and behavioral models. The flexibility of the implicit and fully coupled multiphysics approach comes with a need for constructing suitable approximations for the Jacobian matrix of the coupled system used for either preconditioning a Krylov solve or in a direct Newton solve. Preconditioning options for Bison problems need to be revisited with new preconditioning methods becoming available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development of a Robust and Efficient Parallel Solver for Unsteady Turbomachinery Flows

The traditional design and analysis practice for advanced propulsion systems relies heavily on expensive full-scale prototype development and testing. Over the past decade, use of high-fidelity analysis and design tools such as CFD early in the product development cycle has been identified as one way to alleviate testing costs and to develop these devices better, faster and cheaper. In the design of advanced propulsion systems, CFD plays a major role in defining the required performance over the entire flight regime, as well as in testing the sensitivity of the design to the different modes of operation. Increased emphasis is being placed on developing and applying CFD models to simulate the flow field environments and performance of advanced propulsion systems. This necessitates the development of next generation computational tools which can be used effectively and reliably in a design environment. The turbomachinery simulation capability presented here is being developed in a computational tool called Loci-STREAM [1]. It integrates proven numerical methods for generalized grids and state-of-the-art physical models in a novel rule-based programming framework called Loci [2] which allows: (a) seamless integration of multidisciplinary physics in a unified manner, and (b) automatic handling of massively parallel computing. The objective is to be able to routinely simulate problems involving complex geometries requiring large unstructured grids and complex multidisciplinary physics. An immediate application of interest is simulation of unsteady flows in rocket turbopumps, particularly in cryogenic liquid rocket engines. The key components of the overall methodology presented in this paper are the following: (a) high fidelity unsteady simulation capability based on Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) in conjunction with second-order temporal discretization, (b) compliance with Geometric Conservation Law (GCL) in order to maintain conservative property on moving meshes for second-order time-stepping scheme, (c) a novel cloud-of-points interpolation method (based on a fast parallel kd-tree search algorithm) for interfaces between turbomachinery components in relative motion which is demonstrated to be highly scalable, and (d) demonstrated accuracy and parallel scalability on large grids (approx 250 million cells) in full turbomachinery geometries.

West, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2002

Annual Research Briefs, 2002: Center for Turbulence Research

Turbulent combustion remains the largest component of the CTR's core program. This program and several related activities at CTR are supported by NASA's Ultra Efficient Engine Technology Program. It is also intimately connected with the Department of Energy's ASCI program at Stanford which develops the technology for numerical simulation of realistic aircraft engines using state of the art massively parallel computers. In combustion modeling the attention has been directed to the modeling of higher levels of complexity such as spray dynamics, radiation and soot formation. Major aircraft engine manufacturers have shown considerable interest in this program; in particular, a significant active collaboration exists between CTR and the Pratt & Whitney Corporation. CTR's combustion program is essentially based on the large-eddy simulation technique, LES, which is actively being pursued at CTR for this and many other applications. Important accomplishments in LES included simulations with three-dimensional filters which result in grid independent calculations (that is why we call it "true" LES), and the development of the methodology for integration of LES and Reynolds Averaged computations. Optimization techniques are being studied and used for the important problem of wall boundary conditions for LES as well as for optimal shape design for aeroacoustic and aerodynamic performance gains.

ULTRA EFFICIENT ENGINE TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CP2K: An Electronic Structure and Molecular Dynamics Software Package - Quickstep: Efficient and Accurate Electronic Structure Calculations

CP2K is an open source electronic structure and molecular dynamics software package to perform atomistic simulations of solid-state, liquid, molecular and biological systems. It is especially aimed at massively-parallel and linear-scaling electronic structure methods and state-of-the-art ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations. Excellent performance for electronic structure calculations is achieved using novel algorithms implemented for modern high-performance computing systems. This review revisits the main capabilities of CP2K to perform efficient and accurate electronic structure simulations. The emphasis is put on density functional theory and multiple post-Hartree-Fock methods using the Gaussian and plane wave approach and its augmented all-electron extension. TDK has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 716142). VRR has been supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the form of Ambizione grant No. PZ00P2 174227 and RZK by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through Discovery Grants (RGPIN-2016-0505). GKS and CJM are supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. UK based work was funded under the embedded CSE programme of the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service (http://www.archer.ac.uk), grants eCSE03-011, eCSE06-6, eCSE08-9, eCSE13-17 and the EPSRC (EP/P022235/1) grant “Surface and Interface Toolkit for the Materials Chemistry Community". Computational resources were provided by the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) and Compute Canada. The generous allocation of computing time on the FPGA-based supercomputer “Noctua" at PC2 is kindly acknowledged.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1995

Navier-Stokes Aerodynamic Simulation of the V-22 Osprey on the Intel Paragon MPP

The paper will describe the Development of a general three-dimensional multiple grid zone Navier-Stokes flowfield simulation program (ENS3D-MPP) designed for efficient execution on the Intel Paragon Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) supercomputer, and the subsequent application of this method to the prediction of the viscous flowfield about the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor vehicle. The flowfield simulation code solves the thin Layer or full Navier-Stoke's equation - for viscous flow modeling, or the Euler equations for inviscid flow modeling on a structured multi-zone mesh. In the present paper only viscous simulations will be shown. The governing difference equations are solved using a time marching implicit approximate factorization method with either TVD upwind or central differencing used for the convective terms and central differencing used for the viscous diffusion terms. Steady state or Lime accurate solutions can be calculated. The present paper will focus on steady state applications, although time accurate solution analysis is the ultimate goal of this effort. Laminar viscosity is calculated using Sutherland's law and the Baldwin-Lomax two layer algebraic turbulence model is used to compute the eddy viscosity. The Simulation method uses an arbitrary block, curvilinear grid topology. An automatic grid adaption scheme is incorporated which concentrates grid points in high density gradient regions. A variety of user-specified boundary conditions are available. This paper will present the application of the scalable and superscalable versions to the steady state viscous flow analysis of the V-22 Osprey using a multiple zone global mesh. The mesh consists of a series of sheared cartesian grid blocks with polar grids embedded within to better simulate the wing tip mounted nacelle. MPP solutions will be shown in comparison to equivalent Cray C-90 results and also in comparison to experimental data. Discussions on meshing considerations, wall clock execution time, load balancing, and scalability will be provided.

Vadyak, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1987

Algorithmic commonalities in the parallel environment

The ultimate aim of this project was to analyze procedures from substantially different application areas to discover what is either common or peculiar in the process of conversion to the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP). Three areas were identified: molecular dynamic simulation, production systems (rule systems), and various graphics and vision algorithms. To date, only selected graphics procedures have been investigated. They are the most readily available, and produce the most visible results. These include simple polygon patch rendering, raycasting against a constructive solid geometric model, and stochastic or fractal based textured surface algorithms. Only the simplest of conversion strategies, mapping a major loop to the array, has been investigated so far. It is not entirely satisfactory.

Mcanulty, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Massively Parallel Bayesian Approach to Planetary Protection Trajectory Analysis and Design

The NASA Planetary Protection Office has levied a requirement that the upper stage of future planetary launches have a less than 10(exp -4) chance of impacting Mars within 50 years after launch. A brute-force approach requires a decade of computer time to demonstrate compliance. By using a Bayesian approach and taking advantage of the demonstrated reliability of the upper stage, the required number of fifty-year propagations can be massively reduced. By spreading the remaining embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo simulations across multiple computers, compliance can be demonstrated in a reasonable time frame. The method used is described here.

parallel computing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid RANS-LES of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Wind Farm Simulations: Preprint

Wind farm simulations often do not accurately represent wake-atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) interactions, blade boundary layer (BL) dynamics, and turbine-turbine interactions. In this work, we use Active Model Split (AMS), a new hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS)-large eddy simulation (LES) model, which is well suited to capture these effects because the model can (i) accurately simulate the ABL with the Coriolis effect, (ii) is accurate in adverse pressure gradients such as those near wind turbine blades, and (iii) has sufficiently low computational cost to simulate multiple turbines while resolving the blade BL. For simplicity and consistency we develop AMS to be used throughout the domain rather than in a zonal method. We implement our work in the massively parallel flow solver, Nalu-Wind, so that our model can access the compute resources needed for blade-resolved simulations of multiple wind turbines. To accomplish these aims, we modify the baseline AMS by changing the RANS contribution to SST k - omega with a length scale limiter, adding the Coriolis effect, and developing an appropriate wall treatment. We show that AMS of the ABL with the Coriolis effect matches LES reference results better than those obtained with RANS. We describe our plans to add buoyancy effects and wind turbines to our AMS simulations.

atmospheric boundary layer↗
NASA NTRS1994

Large-Scale Numerical Simulations of Human Motion

This paper examines the feasibility of using massively-parallel and vector-processing supercomputers to solve large-scale optimal control problems for human movement. Specifically, we compare the computational expense of determining the optimal controls for the single support phase of walking using a conventional serial machine (a Silicon Graphics Personal Iris 4D25 workstation), a MIMD parallel machine (an Intel iPSC/860 comprising 128 processors), and a parallel-vector-processing machine (a Cray Y-MP 8/864). With the human body modeled as a 14 degree-of-freedom linkage actuated by 46 musculotendinous units, computation of the optimal controls for walking could take up to 3 months of CPU time on the Iris. Both the Cray Y-MP and the Intel iPSC/860 are able to reduce this time to practical levels. The optimal control solution for walking can be found with about 77 hours of CPU time on the Cray, and with about 88 hours of CPU time on the Intel. Although the overall speeds of the Cray and the Intel were found to be similar, the unique capabilities of each machine are best suited to different parts of the optimal control algorithm used. The Intel performed best in the calculation of the derivatives of the performance criterion and the constraints. In contrast, the Cray performed best during parameter optimization of the controls. These results suggest that the ideal computer architecture for solving very large-scale optimal control problems is a hybrid system in which a vector-processing machine is integrated into the communication network of a MIMD parallel machine.

Anderson, Frank C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Application of high-performance computing to numerical simulation of human movement

We have examined the feasibility of using massively-parallel and vector-processing supercomputers to solve large-scale optimization problems for human movement. Specifically, we compared the computational expense of determining the optimal controls for the single support phase of gait using a conventional serial machine (SGI Iris 4D25), a MIMD parallel machine (Intel iPSC/860), and a parallel-vector-processing machine (Cray Y-MP 8/864). With the human body modeled as a 14 degree-of-freedom linkage actuated by 46 musculotendinous units, computation of the optimal controls for gait could take up to 3 months of CPU time on the Iris. Both the Cray and the Intel are able to reduce this time to practical levels. The optimal solution for gait can be found with about 77 hours of CPU on the Cray and with about 88 hours of CPU on the Intel. Although the overall speeds of the Cray and the Intel were found to be similar, the unique capabilities of each machine are better suited to different portions of the computational algorithm used. The Intel was best suited to computing the derivatives of the performance criterion and the constraints whereas the Cray was best suited to parameter optimization of the controls. These results suggest that the ideal computer architecture for solving very large-scale optimal control problems is a hybrid system in which a vector-processing machine is integrated into the communication network of a MIMD parallel machine.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated calculation and convergence of defect transport tensors

Defect diffusion is a key process in materials science and catalysis, but as migration mechanisms are often too complex to enumerate a priori, calculation of transport tensors typically have no measure of convergence and require significant end-user intervention. These two bottlenecks prevent high-throughput implementations essential to propagate model-form uncertainty from interatomic interactions to predictive simulations. In order to address these issues, we extend a massively parallel accelerated sampling scheme, autonomously controlled by Bayesian estimators of statewide sampling completeness, to build atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo models on a state-space irreducible under exchange and space group symmetries. Focusing on isolated defects, we derive analytic expressions for drift and diffusion coefficients, providing a convergence metric by calculating the Kullback–Leibler divergence across the ensemble of diffusion processes consistent with the sampling uncertainty. The autonomy and efficacy of the method is demonstrated on surface trimers in tungsten and Hexa-interstitials in magnesium oxide, both of which exhibit complex, correlated migration mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1987

Real time animation of space plasma phenomena

In pursuit of real time animation of computer simulated space plasma phenomena, the code was rewritten for the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP). The program creates a dynamic representation of the global bowshock which is based on actual spacecraft data and designed for three dimensional graphic output. This output consists of time slice sequences which make up the frames of the animation. With the MPP, 16384, 512 or 4 frames can be calculated simultaneously depending upon which characteristic is being computed. The run time was greatly reduced which promotes the rapid sequence of images and makes real time animation a foreseeable goal. The addition of more complex phenomenology in the constructed computer images is now possible and work proceeds to generate these images.

Jordan, K. F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of PFLOTRAN Transport Capability for Use in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment - 20545

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) performance assessment (PA) calculations estimate the probability of radionuclide release from the repository to the land surface and across the land withdrawal boundary for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. Simulations of flow and transport in the repository and the surrounding Salado Formation are foundational to the PA. Because proposed additional waste emplacement panels would result in an asymmetric repository layout, the US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to transition to use of a three-dimensional (3-D) model domain for simulation of flow and transport instead of the two-dimensional (2-D) flared grid domain currently used. DOE has charged Sandia National Laboratories with developing the capability necessary to simulate processes affecting flow and transport in the WIPP in PFLOTRAN, an open-source massively parallel multi-phase flow and reactive transport code. The new flow and transport capabilities developed in PFLOTRAN incorporate WIPP-specific process models and will replace the 2-D simulators (BRAGFLO and NUTS) that are currently utilized for Salado flow and transport calculations in WIPP PA. The focus of this paper is on the development of a new Nuclear Waste Transport (NWT) mode in PFLOTRAN that has all of the capabilities necessary for Salado transport simulations, including the ability to handle complete dry-out (100% gas saturation) of arbitrary cells in the model domain, radionuclide mass conservation at step changes in porosity associated with borehole intrusion, and the ability to calculate fluxes on a flared grid. The new PFLOTRAN transport capability and a suite of verification tests were designed around a list of functional requirements for WIPP PA calculations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

MrHyDE v.1.0

SAND2024-01324O MrHyDE, which stands for Multi-resolution Hybridized Differential Equations, is a general-purpose C++ package for the solution of coupled multiphysics and multiscale systems on massively parallel computing systems. MrHyDE is designed to enable moving beyond forward simulation for multiscale applications which includes optimization, control, uncertainty quantification, and stochastic inversion. The framework provides interfaces to several packages within the Trilinos framework and leverages automatic differentiation to enable adjoint capabilities for large-scale, gradient-based optimization. MrHyDE provides automated multiscale capabilities through a subgrid model interface and multiscale Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps. For extreme-scale applications, MrHyDE provides in situ data-compression algorithms to reduce memory requirements while maintaining performance. MrHyDE is a general-purpose, computational framework for the solution of multiscale and multiphysics applications. It uses a combination of structure-preserving, physics-compatible discretizations, fully implicit methods, multi-resolution schemes, or fully explicit methods. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗