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At least 145 records · Page 8

Formation and reconfiguration of tight multi-lane platoons

Advances in vehicular communication technologies are expected to facilitate cooperative driving in the future. Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) are able to collaboratively plan and execute driving maneuvers by sharing their perceptual knowledge and future plans. In this paper, an architecture for autonomous navigation of tight multi-lane platoons traveling on public roads is presented. Using the proposed approach, CAVs are able to form single or multi-lane platoons of various geometrical configurations. They are able to reshape and adjust their configurations according to changes in the environment. The proposed architecture consists of two main components: an offline motion planner system and an online hierarchical control system. The motion planner uses an optimization-based approach for cooperative formation and reconfiguration in tight spaces. A constrained optimization scheme is used to plan smooth, dynamically feasible and collision-free trajectories for all the vehicles within the platoon. The paper addresses online computation limitations by employing a family of maneuvers precomputed offline and stored on a look-up table on the vehicles. The online hierarchical control system is composed of three levels: a traffic operation system (TOS), a decision-maker, and a path-follower. The TOS determines the desired platoon reconfiguration. The decision-maker checks the feasibility of the reconfiguration plan based on real-time information about the surrounding traffic. The reconfiguration maneuver is executed by a low-level path-following feedback controller in real-time. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through simulations of three case studies: (1) formation reconfiguration (2) obstacle avoidance, and (3) benchmarking against behavior-based planning in which the desired formation is achieved using a sequence of motion primitives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatiotemporal Automatic Calibration of Infrastructure Lidar, Radar, and Camera with a Global Navigation Satellite System: Preprint

Robust and accurate perception is important for modern intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which use sensors of various modalities for data fusion to create a digital twin of an intersection. Sensor calibration is an important process that creates a unified coordinate frame for the sensor output data so that it can be used for data fusion. Classical approaches for sensor calibration are time-consuming, require an overlapping field of view for feature matching, and are not feasible for ITS application as they cause disruptions in the flow of traffic. In this paper, we present a spatiotemporal automatic calibration approach to calibrate multiple infrastructure lidar, radar, and cameras installed at a traffic intersection. The approach uses global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning information shared by connected vehicles, and when the vehicle is detected by the sensor, we match the sensor detections with the GNSS coordinates. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a real-world dataset utilizing detections from two radars, cameras, and lidars with a test vehicle instrumented with a post-processing kinematic (PPK)-corrected GNSS driving past the sensors installed at a four-way traffic intersection. The experimental results show that the proposed automatic calibration approach can achieve the transformation with a root mean squared error of less than 0.5 for radar and lidar and less than 2 for camera detections. The ability to rapidly calibrate sensors not only benefits initial installations, but can also be used for system health monitoring, while utilizing available connected vehicle data to test the real-time sensor fidelity and operational status.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

WPTO Navigator

Protecting hydroelectric plants from incidents that adversely impact their cyber-physical systems presents unique challenges due to the plants’ widely dispersed geographic locations and varied configurations as well as the relative nascent nature of the cyberattacks targeting these facilities. To help hydroelectric plants better respond to and mitigate cybersecurity incidents, this Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office Navigator aligns the processes within the National Institute of Standards 800-61r2 Computer Security Incident Handling Guide with the emergency actions within the FEMA 64 Emergency Action Plan Framework. This work is to be used at a hydroelectric plant to quickly understand how the plant responds to a cyber incident in relationship to the actions involved in an emergency action plan involving a hydroelectric plant. In addition to this product, there are three other products meant to be distributed to a hydroelectric plant to assist in their cyber incident response and recovery. The first, a report on the processes of building a R&R flip book based on a large set of existing guidance. The second, a handy flip book meant to be distributed to hydroelectric plants to assist them during a cybersecurity incident occurring on a hydroelectic plant. And the third is a comprehensive set of resources to assist an operator in locating appropriate guidance during the recovery process.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Advancing \textit{otsdaq}: Enhancements for Usability, Accuracy, and Robustness

High-energy physics (HEP) experiments require data acquisition (DAQ) systems that can orchestrate complex detector operations, high data throughput, and responsive, real-time feedback to operators. Traditional DAQ stacks, which are often bespoke, command-line driven and highly specific, impose large learning curves on users. The Off-The-Shelf Data Acquisition (\textit{otsdaq}) framework was created to address these issues by offering a highly customizable and scalable browser-based ’desktop’ environment, in which experiment-specific control and monitoring applications can be easily deployed and integrated. Although the initial development of the \textit{otsdaq} software was aimed at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility, \textit{otsdaq} is now being leveraged for broader deployment, including the upcoming Mu2e experiment, where real-time monitoring of field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based Data Transfer Controllers (DTCs), Clock and Fanout (CFO) boards, and several other subsystems are critical. We contribute a set of targeted improvements to \textit{otsdaq}: bitmap visualization functionality for configured data, improved and corrected delta-based DTC throughput metrics, version control (VC)-backed source navigation for console messages, custom navigation hooks to eliminate disruptive user interface glitches, and copy-to-clipboard support for macro execution history. These changes improve usability, reduce debugging time, and increase accuracy in performance data as Mu2e moves toward commissioning.

Mohammed, A. [Unlisted, US]↗

Emerging Technologies for Privacy Preservation in Energy Systems

This study explores the intersection of digitalization and privacy within the energy sector, focusing on the emerging challenges and opportunities presented by integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and advanced metering infrastructure. The need for robust digital privacy measures has become crucial as the energy industry evolves towards a more decentralized, digitalized, and decarbonized future. This study delves into four cutting-edge privacy-preserving technologies—Homomorphic Encryption (HE), Secure Multiparty Computation (SMPC), Differential Privacy (DP), and Federated Learning (FL)—each offering unique solutions to safeguard consumer data by increasing digital connectivity and data exchange. Through a detailed examination of these methods, the study explains how each technology operates, its applications within the energy sector, and the specific privacy challenges it addresses. Homomorphic Encryption allows for secure computations on encrypted data, enabling data analysis without compromising privacy. Secure Multiparty Computation enables collaborative data analysis across different entities while protecting the confidentiality of the inputs. Differential Privacy introduces randomness into the assembled data set, preventing the identification of individual records in statistical databases. Lastly, Federated Learning offers a paradigm shift in data analysis, where machine learning models are trained at the edge, minimizing the centralization of sensitive data. The research underscores the significance of implementing these privacy-enhancing technologies to comply with strict data protection regulations, foster consumer trust, and enhance the security of the energy infrastructure. By providing a comprehensive overview of these methodologies and their practical implications for the energy sector, this study aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on digital privacy, offering insights into how the energy industry can navigate the complexities of data privacy in the digital age.

Cali, Umit↗

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Marine renewable energy for Arctic observations

Arctic observations are becoming increasingly valuable as researchers investigate climate change and its associated concerns, such as decreasing sea ice and increasing ship traffic. Networks of sensors with frequent sampling capabilities are needed to run forecast models, improve navigation, and inform climate research. Sampling frequency and deployment duration are currently constrained by battery power limitations. In-situ power generation using marine renewable energy sources such as waves and currents can be used to circumvent this constraint. Wave and current resources vary spatially and temporally in the Arctic, with some locations and seasons being better suited for marine renewable energy power generation. Locations and seasons with small resources may still be able to use marine renewable energy because of the low power requirements of the instruments. In this study, we describe the wave and current resources in the Arctic, outline the electricity generation developments that are needed to utilize the resources, and suggest use cases. Wave and current energy converters developed to power observations in the Arctic could also be used to power observations at lower latitudes. Marine renewable energy has the potential to decrease dependence on batteries and improve data collection capabilities in the Arctic; however, this would require the development of new low power technologies that can operate in extreme Arctic environments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Development of Human and Technology Integration Guidance for Work Optimization and Effective Use of Information

Existing nuclear power contributes to roughly 20% of the total electricity generation, and consistently provides the highest capacity factor of any other electricity generating resource in the United States. Despite these advantages, the existing nuclear power plant fleet in the United States has been enduring significant challenges in providing electricity in a cost-competitive manner, which has ultimately threatened the long-term economic viability of these plants. A major contributor to these increased operating and maintenance costs has been the continued reliance of a large workforce who perform their work under an operating model that has largely remained unchanged since the commissioning of these nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, while this operating model has provided safe and reliable electricity, other industries have already began transforming their workforce through the use of advanced digital technology and automation that has reduced their operating and maintenance cost significantly. In order for the United States nuclear industry to remain economically viable, a similar transformation must be considered in which digital technologies and automation capabilities are brought in to support key plant functions across all work functions across plant operation, maintenance, and support. To effectively integrate digital technology and automation in the existing nuclear power plant operating model, a multidisciplinary approach is needed that addresses technological and sociotechnical (i.e., human and technology integration) considerations. This report describes an extension to the human and technology integration methodology, herein referred to as Human Integration and Technology Task Force for Work Management Optimization (HITT), to support the safe, reliable, and efficient use of proposed innovations with the intended users in their intended environment to perform their intended tasks. By effectively incorporating human and technology integration into a plant modernization effort by using HITT, we believe that a utility can significantly improve work performance and overall workforce quality of life. For instance, if HITT is performed to optimize work management, scheduling performance and scope stability can be improved by up to 10%. HITT enables these benefits through developing a rich understanding of the work being performed, the utility’s vision, and the opportunities that provide greatest value to optimize performance through a 10-step process illustrated below as a quick guide. The quick guide contains links in the righthand side of each step that allows for navigation to the detailed section (Section 4) of HITT in this technical report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have raised the alarm that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time-consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions. The solutions noted in this white paper require collaborative efforts among utilities, regulators, and EV charging infrastructure developers to streamline the grid connection process for EV charging infrastructure. They are broadly organized into four areas: 1. Increase data access and transparency: Develop automated load service request tools, integrate hosting capacity and load service request analyses, incorporate EV adoption forecasts, and provide transparency on the processing queue. 2. Improve energization processes and timing: Create fast-track options based on prescreening criteria, provide flexibility or phased approvals in the load service request/interconnection process, build internal knowledge within utilities about EV charging technologies, and provide standardized workforce training. 3. Promote economic efficiency: Right size distribution components to accurately reflect the load requirements of EV charging infrastructure, make proactive investments in grid infrastructure based on EV adoption forecasts and growth projections, and consider energy equity and environmental justice factors such as equitable access to EV charging when planning infrastructure. 4. Improve grid reliability and resilience: Use load management/power control systems (PCS) at EV charging stations, adopt and implement harmonized standards for communication protocols and information models between the EV charging and grid control infrastructure, and address cybersecurity considerations by implementing robust security measures and standards for EV charging infrastructure—with particular emphasis on clarifying the security requirements for the interface to the grid. The objective of the solutions proposed in this white paper is to accelerate the timeline and decrease costs associated with connecting EV charging infrastructure to the grid. Electric utilities, utility regulators, EV charging infrastructure developers, and site hosts will first need to understand which solutions are available in their service territory, and if warranted, which combination of solutions would support their specific needs. Through the successful implementations of solutions at scale detailed here, industry will demonstrate a new and innovative ecosystem where timely deployment and energization of EV charging infrastructure with greater grid resiliency and reliability is a reality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Microwave radiometer, sun-photometer and GNSS multi-comparison of integrated water vapor in Southwestern Europe

This work presents a comparison of integrated water vapor (IWV) data recorded from microwave radiometer (MWR) and sun-photometer (SP) using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) IWV as reference in five mid-latitude sites of Portugal and Spain (2003–2021). A very high correlation is obtained for both instruments (R2 between 0.94 and 0.98), although, while MWR shows a wet bias, SP exhibits a dry one. In addition, a dependence of mean bias error (MBE) and standard deviation (SD) on IWV has been observed, increasing (larger discrepancies) both indices as IWV increases. The solar zenith angle (SZA) dependence is also studied, finding slightly larger discrepancies for the MWR than for SP in comparison with GNSS for very high values of SZA. Finally, a marked seasonal dependence is observed for SP-GNSS differences, modulated by the IWV dependence explained above. In contrast, the seasonal dependence for MWR is quite weaker than it is for SP. Therefore, in spite of the excellent agreement found among the different instruments, it is recommended that: i) the dependence with IWV be studied and corrected to further increase the performance of the instruments, and ii) metadata be used to filter out situations in which the instrument cannot operate properly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reinforcement learning in discrete action space applied to inverse defect design

Abstract Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms that include Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) have found tremendous success in computer games such as Go, Shiga and Chess. Such learning algorithms have demonstrated super-human capabilities in navigating through an exhaustive discrete action search space. Motivated by their success in computer games, we demonstrate that RL can be applied to inverse materials design problems. We deploy RL for a representative case of the optimal atomic scale inverse design of extended defects via rearrangement of chalcogen (e.g. S) vacancies in 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (e.g. MoS 2 ). These defect rearrangements and their dynamics are important from the perspective of tunable phase transition in 2D materials i.e. 2H (semi-conducting) to 1T (metallic) in MoS 2 . We demonstrate the ability of MCTS interfaced with a reactive molecular dynamics simulator to efficiently sample the defect phase space and perform inverse design—starting from randomly distributed S vacancies, the optimal defect rearrangement of defects corresponds a line defect of S vacancies. We compare MCTS performance with evolutionary optimization i.e. genetic algorithms and show that MCTS converges to a better optimal solution (lower objective) and in fewer evaluations compared to GA. We also comprehensively evaluate and discuss the effect of MCTS hyperparameters on the convergence to solution. Overall, our study demonstrates the effectives of using RL approaches that operate in discrete action space for inverse defect design problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Historic and modern approaches for discovery of abandoned wells for methane emissions mitigation in Oil Creek State Park, Pennsylvania

Hundreds of oil wells were drilled along Oil Creek in Pennsylvania in the mid-16 1800s, birthing the modern oil industry. No longer in operation, many wells are now classified as abandoned, and, due to their age, their locations are either unknown or inaccurately recorded. These historic well sites present environmental, safety, and economic concerns in the form of possible methane leaks and physical hazards. Airborne magnetic and LiDAR surveys were conducted in the Pioneer Run watershed in Oil Creek State Park to find abandoned wells in a historically significant but physically challenging location. Wells were drilled in this area prior to modern geolocation and legal documentation. Although a large number of old wells were abandoned summarily without remediation of the site, much of the land area within Oil Creek State Park is now covered in trees and dense underbrush, which can obscure wellheads. The thick vegetation and steep terrain limited the possibility of ground-based surveys to easily find well sites for methane emissions studies. The data from remote sensing surveys were used to corroborate potential well locations from historic maps and photographs. Potential well sites were verified in a ground-based field survey and monitored for methane emissions. Two historic photographs documenting oil activity in the late 1800s were georeferenced using a combination of magnetic and LiDAR data. LiDAR data, which were more useful in georeferencing and in field verification, identified 290 field locations in the Pioneer Run watershed, 86% of which were possible well sites. Sixty-two percent of the ground-verified wells remained unplugged and comprised the majority of leaking wells. The mean methane emissions factor for unplugged wells was 0.027 ± 0.099 kg/day, lower than other Appalachian Basin methane emissions estimates. LiDAR was used for the first time, in combination with an airborne magnetic survey, to reveal underground oil industry features and inform well identification and remediation efforts in difficult-to-navigate regions. In the oldest oil fields, where well casing has been removed or wood conductor casing was installed, historic photographs provide additional lines of evidence for oil wells where ground disturbances have concealed surface features. Identification of well sites is necessary for mitigation efforts, as unplugged wells emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗