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At least 145 records · Page 8

DESI Strong Lens Foundry. III. Keck Spectroscopy for Strong Lenses Discovered Using Residual Neural Networks

We present spectroscopic data of strong lenses and their source galaxies using the Keck Near-Infrared Echellette Spectrometer (NIRES) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), providing redshifts necessary for nearly all strong-lensing applications with these systems, especially the extraction of physical parameters from lensing modeling. These strong lenses were found in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using residual neural networks and followed up by our Hubble Space Telescope program, with all systems displaying unambiguous lensed arcs. With NIRES, we target eight lensed sources at redshifts difficult to measure in the optical range and determine the source redshifts for six, between z s = 1.675 and 3.332. DESI observed one of the remaining source redshifts, as well as an additional source redshift within the six systems. The two systems with nondetections by NIRES were observed for a considerably shorter 600 s at high airmass. Combining NIRES infrared spectroscopy with optical spectroscopy from our DESI Strong Lensing Secondary Target Program, these results provide the complete lens and source redshifts for six systems, a resource for refining automated strong lens searches in future deep- and wide-field imaging surveys and addressing a range of questions in astrophysics and cosmology.

Agarwal, Shrihan [University of Chicago, IL (Unite↗

The Dark Energy Survey 5-yr photometrically classified type Ia supernovae without host-galaxy redshifts

ABSTRACT Current and future Type Ia Supernova (SN Ia) surveys will need to adopt new approaches to classifying SNe and obtaining their redshifts without spectra if they wish to reach their full potential. We present here a novel approach that uses only photometry to identify SNe Ia in the 5-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES) data set using the SuperNNova classifier. Our approach, which does not rely on any information from the SN host-galaxy, recovers SNe Ia that might otherwise be lost due to a lack of an identifiable host. We select $2{,}298$ high-quality SNe Ia from the DES 5-yr data set an almost complete sample of detected SNe Ia. More than 700 of these have no spectroscopic host redshift and are potentially new SNIa compared to the DES-SN5YR cosmology analysis. To analyse these SNe Ia, we derive their redshifts and properties using only their light curves with a modified version of the SALT2 light-curve fitter. Compared to other DES SN Ia samples with spectroscopic redshifts, our new sample has in average higher redshift, bluer and broader light curves, and fainter host-galaxies. Future surveys such as LSST will also face an additional challenge, the scarcity of spectroscopic resources for follow-up. When applying our novel method to DES data, we reduce the need for follow-up by a factor of four and three for host-galaxy and live SN, respectively, compared to earlier approaches. Our novel method thus leads to better optimization of spectroscopic resources for follow-up.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally‐integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi‐scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top‐down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (<100 km). Partial‐column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column‐integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top‐down/bottom‐up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

Parazoo, Nicholas C. [California Institute of Tech↗

Predicting bulge to total luminosity ratio of galaxies using deep learning

ABSTRACT We present a deep learning model to predict the r-band bulge-to-total luminosity ratio (B/T) of nearby galaxies using their multiband JPEG images alone. Our Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based regression model is trained on a large sample of galaxies with reliable decomposition into the bulge and disc components. The existing approaches to estimate the B/T ratio use galaxy light-profile modelling to find the best fit. This method is computationally expensive, prohibitively so for large samples of galaxies, and requires a significant amount of human intervention. Machine learning models have the potential to overcome these shortcomings. In our CNN model, for a test set of 20 000 galaxies, 85.7 per cent of the predicted B/T values have absolute error (AE) less than 0.1. We see further improvement to 87.5 per cent if, while testing, we only consider brighter galaxies (with r-band apparent magnitude <17) with no bright neighbours. Our model estimates the B/T ratio for the 20 000 test galaxies in less than a minute. This is a significant improvement in inference time from the conventional fitting pipelines, which manage around 2–3 estimates per minute. Thus, the proposed machine learning approach could potentially save a tremendous amount of time, effort, and computational resources while predicting B/T reliably, particularly in the era of next-generation sky surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Euclid sky survey which will produce extremely large samples of galaxies.

Grover, Harsh (ORCID:0000000321338142)↗

Assessment of Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Toward Ticks and Tickborne Disease among Healthcare Professionals Working in Schools in New York and Maryland

Healthcare Professionals Working in Schools (HPWS) are responsible for providing health services to students and play a role in providing education to prevent illnesses, including tickborne diseases (TBD). Providing TBD education to children has been shown to increase prevention behaviors and knowledge of TBD symptoms, but little is known regarding the current state of TBD awareness among HPWS. In spring 2019 we conducted a cross-sectional knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) survey of HPWS in two states with a high incidence of Lyme disease (LD) to inform design of TBD prevention programs. The survey queried general knowledge of TBDs, school practices regarding TBDs, and availability of TBD resources. Overall, higher confidence, experience, risk perception, prior training on TBD, and more years employed as a HPWS were independently associated with knowledge of LD transmission, symptoms, and correct tick removal practices. State and local health departments should consider prioritizing engagement with HPWS to provide educational opportunities about tickborne diseases.

Nursing↗

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Photo-zSNthesis: Converting Type Ia Supernova Lightcurves to Redshift Estimates via Deep Learning

Abstract Upcoming photometric surveys will discover tens of thousands of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), vastly outpacing the capacity of our spectroscopic resources. In order to maximize the scientific return of these observations in the absence of spectroscopic information, we must accurately extract key parameters, such as SN redshifts, with photometric information alone. We present Photo- z SNthesis, a convolutional neural network-based method for predicting full redshift probability distributions from multi-band supernova lightcurves, tested on both simulated Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time data as well as observed SDSS SNe. We show major improvements over predictions from existing methods on both simulations and real observations as well as minimal redshift-dependent bias, which is a challenge due to selection effects, e.g., Malmquist bias. Specifically, we show a 61× improvement in prediction bias 〈Δ z 〉 on PLAsTiCC simulations and 5× improvement on real SDSS data compared to results from a widely used photometric redshift estimator, LCFIT+Z. The PDFs produced by this method are well constrained and will maximize the cosmological constraining power of photometric SNe Ia samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electricity Markets and Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Survey of Grid Services and Revenue Streams

Purpose of Review Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is increasingly viewed as a potential resource for providing grid services that enhance the stability and flexibility of electricity systems. While some LDES services are integrated into existing market frameworks, traditional mechanisms may not fully account for their operational characteristics, potentially leading to undervaluation. Within this context, this paper reviews the literature and industry practices to assess potential grid services for LDES, evaluates existing compensation mechanisms, and identifies challenges to full market integration. Recent Findings We first review existing literature and identify key grid services unique to LDES, including enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events, enabling long-term energy shifting, and providing flexible and firm energy in systems with limited dispatchable resources. Here, we also review how LDES services are compensated in current market frameworks and the challenges associated with the full realization of LDES values. Additionally, we summarize market mechanisms for storage technologies across U.S. wholesale markets. We find that some markets are adjusting incentive structures, such as incorporating storage duration in capacity accreditation, to better align with system needs and LDES contributions to the grid. However, further refinements in capacity remuneration and dispatch timeframes may be needed for more effective realization of LDES value. Summary This review evaluates potential grid services for LDES, examines existing compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies, and identifies gaps between these mechanisms and LDES operational characteristics. The review concludes by outlining potential market enhancements for more effective LDES integration and articulating additional research needs to support its efficient participation in future power systems.

Flexible resources↗

Survey-wide asteroid discovery with a high-performance computing enabled non-linear digital tracking framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. Here, we present a novel method that adapts “digital tracking” – traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images – to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

Asteroid discovery↗

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Bat Acoustic Survey Data Collected June 2024 in and near Self Sufficiency Parcel-2 (SSP2) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR)

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) is located in Anderson and Roane Counties, Tennessee. A portion of the ORR, known as Self-Sufficiency Parcel 2 (SSP2) is planned for transfer for private use. The SSP2 Site is approximately 670 acres (Figure 1-1), although the current plan is to only clear and develop a portion of this acreage. Any inquiries about the land transfer and future development should be directed to DOE Oak Ridge Environmental Management, as this is beyond the scope of the Natural Resources Management Team (NRMT). NRMT records bat data for the entire ORR, including acoustic monitoring, mist netting and cave surveys. A few surveys have previously been conducted for small land transfers adjacent to SSP2 (See Appendix A), but not for the entire SSP2 area. Since bats have a large range, it was decided that collecting data while SSP2 was still accessible would be beneficial for the NRMT dataset. Acoustic data was therefore collected within and near SSP2 during the summer of 2024. This write-up is not a Biological Assessment (BA). However, the data and information provided can be used during the creation of a BA and consultations with US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in order to comply with federal directives of the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U. S. C. 153 et seq.). The SSP2 site was surveyed during summer roosting/maternity season of 2024 using ultrasonic acoustic monitors to record calls from all bat species whose home ranges include the ORR. Special note was taken for presence of Federally listed Endangered and Threatened (T&E) bat species, as well as bat species which are Proposed for Federal listing, Candidate for federal listing, and state listed. Summer roosting season, from May 15 to August 15, is crucial to forest-dwelling T&E bat species for rearing young and foraging. Results of these surveys indicate the presence of three Federally listed bat species: Gray bat (Myotis grisescens--Endangered), Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis--Endangered), and Northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis--Endangered). Two additional bat species were present on the SSP2 Site: Tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus--Proposed for Federal listing) and Little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus—Candidate for Federal listing).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Survey of Open-Source Tools for Transmission and Distribution Systems Research

This work presents a review of open-source electric power transmission and distribution systems analysis tools suitable for use by industry professionals and academic researchers. Due to the high complexity of the electric grid, there exist numerous tools and extensive research pertaining to nearly every aspect of the design, operation, and control of transmission and distribution networks. In addition to the commercial tools, a wide range of free, open-source tools, models, and data usable by the scientific community for related research have been developed by different organizations, including both international and US universities and national laboratories. However, due to the absence of a catalog of available tools, models and data, researchers often lack a knowledge of existing capabilities and may develop duplicative software and tools. Increasing awareness of these available resources seeks to accelerate their broader use, leading to more efficient and standardized grid analysis. This review paper (which is part of a larger survey effort that studied over 400 tools in the transmission, distribution, buildings, and electric vehicles space) outlines selected open-source resources that have been developed in power transmission and distribution systems research. It is anticipated that this work can serve as a guide for industry and academic researchers alike, ensuring that research efforts are well-channeled.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

2021–2022 Can Do Colorado E-Bike Full-Scale Pilot Program Study

In 2021–2022, the Colorado Energy Office conducted a full-scale pilot program study on e-bike usage as part of the Can Do Colorado initiative, providing e-bikes to low-income participants across the state. A [2020 mini pilot program study](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-2020-can-do-colorado-e-bike-pilot-program.html) informed the full-scale study. Both studies used pedal-assist e-bikes, which feature an electric motor and battery to help power the bike. The motor amplifies the power behind each pedal stroke, augmenting the energy you put into the bike. #### Data Collection Agency The Colorado Energy Office conducted the study in partnership with local organizations in Adams and Broomfield counties (Smart Commute Metro North), Boulder (Community Cycles), Durango (Four Corners Office for Resource Efficiency), Fort Collins (City of Fort Collins), Pueblo (Pueblo County), and Vail (Town of Vail). #### Survey Methodology Program participants received an e-bike and accessories at no cost and manually submitted travel data and feedback via the CanBikeCO smartphone app. Developed in partnership with NLR, the app used a customized version of the open-source [NLR OpenPATH platform](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/openpath.html). #### Survey Records and Data Survey records include 170 participants. The six datasets contain up to 18 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed travel behavior data—patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic information from participants. The number of e-bike trips and e-bike miles traveled per location are 1,560 and 4,179 for Adams and Broomfield counties; 8,481 and 27,000 for Boulder; 2,815 and 6,307 for Durango; 3,483 and 7,080 for Fort Collins; 4,022 and 14,887 for Pueblo, and 1,206 and 3,3361 for Vail.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Standard Operating Procedure for the Inadvertent Discovery of Native American Human Remains and Associated Funerary Objects, Sacred Objects, or Objects of Cultural Patrimony at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory) is one of several national laboratories that support the mission of the United States Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Los Alamos Field Office (Field Office). It is located in Los Alamos and Santa Fe Counties, New Mexico. LANL occupies approximately 40 square miles of land owned by the U.S. Government and under the administrative control of DOE/NNSA. Cultural resources management at LANL is the responsibility of the Field Office’s Cultural Resources Program Manager, with the assistance and facilitation of the LANL Environmental Stewardship Group (ES) Cultural Resources Programs (archaeology and historic buildings), which are part of the LANL Environmental Protection and Compliance (EPC) Division. LANL, which is primarily located on the Pajarito Plateau, is extremely rich in cultural resources. Nearly 2,000 archaeological sites have been recorded at LANL, based on the systematic archaeological survey of ~90% of LANL lands. Most of the known sites (~ 85%) date from the Ancestral Pueblo Late Coalition and Classic Periods of around AD 1150 to 1600. The remaining sites date to the Archaic Period (ca. 5500 BC to 600 AD), the Late Developmental and Early Coalition Periods (ca. 900 to 1200), and the Homestead Period (ca. 1890 to 1942).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Utah FORGE 2020-2021 Geothermal Energy/EGS Survey and Results

The Utah FORGE project collaborated with the University of Utahs Department of Communication on a Capstone course during Fall Semester 2020. The course created a survey to gauge the general populations knowledge of geothermal energy and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). The survey was distributed through Qualtrics, an experience management company, in late 2020 and early 2021 to respondents in 11 western states (AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY). Approximately 1,000 responses were received. The Code Book (the consent form and the questions themselves) and the raw data results in a spreadsheet are included in the data resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Mycorrhizal nutrient acquisition strategies shape tree competition and coexistence dynamics

Mycorrhizal fungi with different nutrient acquisition strategies influence plant species performance and physiology, thereby defining their trophic niche. This might drive resource competition dynamics that cumulatively impact tree species coexistence, but few manipulative experiments have directly tested this. Combining surveys and experiments in a modern coexistence theory framework, we tested how variation in mycorrhizal strategies and nutrient conditions affects plant competitive outcomes. We focused on two genera of co-occurring tree species with different mycorrhizal states: Acer (arbuscular mycorrhizal, AM) and Populus (dual mycorrhizal, but often considered predominantly ectomycorrhizal, EM). The EM and AM fungal responsiveness in Populus species varied with latitude and nitrogen (N) limitation. Host-specific soil microbiome conditioning and inorganic N fertilization combined to qualitatively affect coexistence outcomes. Lower N conditions favoured Populus over Acer trees, and N fertilization reversed this outcome for southern species, aligning with regional-scale forest mycorrhizal transitions. Results from the coexistence experiment also predict competitive exclusion between the tree species pairs, which could arise, in part, from their mycorrhizal differences and is consistent with alternative stable states in dominant forest mycorrhizal strategies. Such bistability appears in natural systems as a bimodal distribution of Populus vs. Acer tree species dominance using long-term forest inventory data. Synthesis: The magnitude and outcome of microbially mediated competition between Populus and Acer depends on soil nutrient availability, which likely relates to their mycorrhizal differentiation. These findings support the importance of mycorrhizal symbioses for contributing to large-scale biogeographical patterns of tree species trophic niche separation across soil resource gradients and bistability in forest mycorrhizal structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗