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NASA NTRS2015

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Credibility↗
NASA NTRS2011

Analogs and the BHP Risk Reduction Strategy for Future Spaceflight Missions

In preparation for future exploration missions to distant destinations (e.g., Moon, Near Earth Objects (NEO), and Mars), the NASA Human Research Program s (HRP) Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) conducts and supports research to address four human health risks: Risk of Behavioral Conditions; Risk of Psychiatric Conditions; Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team; and Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Fatigue, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload (HRP Science Management Plan, 2008). BHP Research, in collaboration with internal and external research investigators, as well as subject matter experts within NASA operations including flight surgeons, astronauts, and mission planners and others within the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD), identifies knowledge and technology gaps within each Risk. BHP Research subsequently manages and conducts research tasks to address and close the gaps, either through risk assessment and quantification, or the development of countermeasures and monitoring technologies. The resulting deliverables, in many instances, also support current Medical Operations and/or Mission Operations for the International Space Station (ISS).

Whitmire, Sandra↗
NASA NTRS2015

2014 Behavioral Health and Performance Standing Review Panel

The 2014 Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated research plan for the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Fatigue Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, Extended Wakefulness, and Work Overload (Sleep Risk) and also received a status update on the Risk of Adverse Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (BMed Risk) and the Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (Team Risk).

Steinberg, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2016

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Analysis of Risk and Function Information in Early Stage Design

The concept of function offers a high potential for thinking and reasoning about designs as well as providing a common thread for relating together other design information. This paper focuses specifically on the relation between function and risk by examining how this information is addressed for a design team conducting early stage design for space missions. Risk information is decomposed into a set of key attributes which are then used to scrutinize the risk information using three approaches from the pragmatics sub-field of linguistics: i) Gricean, ii) Relevance Theory, and Functional Analysis. Results of this linguistics-based approach descriptively account for the context of designer communication with respect to function and risk, and offer prescriptive guidelines for improving designer communication.

Barrientos, Francesca↗
NASA NTRS2007

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Carreno, Victor A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team

A team is defined as: "two or more individuals who interact socially and adaptively, have shared or common goals, and hold meaningful task interdependences; it is hierarchically structured and has a limited life span; in it expertise and roles are distributed; and it is embedded within an organization/environmental context that influences and is influenced by ongoing processes and performance outcomes" (Salas, Stagl, Burke, & Goodwin, 2007, p. 189). From the NASA perspective, a team is commonly understood to be a collection of individuals that is assigned to support and achieve a particular mission. Thus, depending on context, this definition can encompass both the spaceflight crew and the individuals and teams in the larger multi-team system who are assigned to support that crew during a mission. The Team Risk outcomes of interest are predominantly performance related, with a secondary emphasis on long-term health; this is somewhat unique in the NASA HRP in that most Risk areas are medically related and primarily focused on long-term health consequences. In many operational environments (e.g., aviation), performance is assessed as the avoidance of errors. However, the research on performance errors is ambiguous. It implies that actions may be dichotomized into "correct" or "incorrect" responses, where incorrect responses or errors are always undesirable. Researchers have argued that this dichotomy is a harmful oversimplification, and it would be more productive to focus on the variability of human performance and how organizations can manage that variability (Hollnagel, Woods, & Leveson, 2006) (Category III1). Two problems occur when focusing on performance errors: 1) the errors are infrequent and, therefore, difficult to observe and record; and 2) the errors do not directly correspond to failure. Research reveals that humans are fairly adept at correcting or compensating for performance errors before such errors result in recognizable or recordable failures. Astronauts are notably adept high performers. Most failures are recorded only when multiple, small errors occur and humans are unable to recognize and correct or compensate for these errors in time to prevent a failure (Dismukes, Berman, Loukopoulos, 2007) (Category III). More commonly, observers record variability in levels of performance. Some teams commit no observable errors but fail to achieve performance objectives or perform only adequately, while other teams commit some errors but perform spectacularly. Successful performance, therefore, cannot be viewed as simply the absence of errors or the avoidance of failure Johnson Space Center (JSC) Joint Leadership Team, 2008). While failure is commonly attributed to making a major error, focusing solely on the elimination of error(s) does not significantly reduce the risk of failure. Failure may also occur when performance is simply insufficient or an effort is incapable of adjusting sufficiently to a contextual change (e.g., changing levels of autonomy).

Landon, Lauren Blackwell↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The HAL 9000 Space Operating System Real-Time Planning Engine Design and Operations Requirements

In support of future deep space manned missions, an autonomous/automated vehicle, providing crew autonomy and an autonomous response planning system, will be required due to the light time delays in communication. Vehicle capabilities as a whole must provide for tactical response to vehicle system failures and space environmental effects induced failures, for risk mitigation of permanent loss of communication with Earth, and for assured crew return capabilities. The complexity of human rated space systems and the limited crew sizes and crew skills mix drive the need for a robust autonomous capability on-board the vehicle. The HAL 9000 Space Operating System[2] designed for such missions and space craft includes the first distributed real-time planning / re-planning system. This paper will detail the software architecture of the multiple planning engine system, and the interface design for plan changes, approval and implementation that is performed autonomously. Operations scenarios will be defined for analysis of the planning engines operations and its requirements for nominal / off nominal activities. An assessment of the distributed realtime re-planning system, in the defined operations environment, will be provided as well as findings as it pertains to the vehicle, crew, and mission control requirements needed for implementation.

Stetson, Howard↗
NASA NTRS2010

Different Perspectives on Asthenia in Astronauts and Cosmonauts: International Research Literature

The Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Element is one of the six elements within the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) and is responsible for managing four risks: a) The Risk of Performance Decrements due to inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication and Psychological Adaptation within a Team (Team), b) the Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Circadian De-synchronization, Fatigue and Work Overload (Sleep), c) Risk of Behavioral Conditions (BMed), and d) the Risk of Psychiatric Disorders (BMed). The aim of this report is to address some of the recommendations made by the recent NASA HRP Standing Review Panel for the Behavioral Medicine Risk of Psychiatric Disorders. Such recommendations included: a) the inclusion of important national and international literature in English and non-English language materials; including journals, books, magazines, conference reports and b) an extensive literature review of certain types of psychological states to predict, detect, and assess adverse mental states that may negatively affect the psychological well being of the astronauts, specifically asthenia. This report was a collaborative international work effort focused on the evaluation and determination of the importance of continuing research on asthenia as a possible psychological problem that might affect the optimal psychological functioning among crewmembers during long-duration space flight missions. Russian medical personnel (flight surgeons and psychologist) have observed symptoms of asthenia (weakness, increased fatigue, irritability, and attention and memory disorders) in cosmonauts after four months in space (Myasnikov& Zamaleddinov1996; Grigorieve, 1996 ) and believe that asthenia is one of the greater risks that will affect crews? optimal psychological functioning.

Sandoval, Luis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Perspectives on Asthenia in Astronauts and Cosmonauts: Review of the International Research Literature

The Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) is one of the 6 elements in the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) and is responsible for managing 4 of the identified and named risks to human health and performance from human space exploration: a) Risk of Behavioral Conditions (BMed), b) Risk of Psychiatric Disorders (BMed), c) Risk of Performance Decrements due to inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication and Psychological Adaptation within a Team (Team), and d) Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Circadian De-synchronization, Fatigue and Work Overload (Sleep). Each risk is reviewed by a NASA HRP Standing Review Panel (SRP), and recently the Behavioral Medicine Risk of Psychiatric Disorders was reviewed. The aim of this report is to address one of the recommendations made by that panel, specifically the recommendation that the "literature on asthenia should be evaluated (possibly as a psychological or psychosomatic / psycho-physiological analogue of chronic fatigue syndrome)" (SRP p. 4), in addition to General Recommendation 4, which states that "all reviews must include non-English language materials as well as materials appearing in conferences reports, books, and other non-refereed journal outlets" (SRP p. 2).

Sandoval, Luis↗
NASA NTRS1977

Millimeter wave satellite concepts, volume 1

The identification of technologies necessary for development of millimeter spectrum communication satellites was examined from a system point of view. Development of methodology based on the technical requirements of potential services that might be assigned to millimeter wave bands for identifying the viable and appropriate technologies for future NASA millimeter research and development programs, and testing of this methodology with selected user applications and services were the goals of the program. The entire communications network, both ground and space subsystems was studied. Cost, weight, and performance models for the subsystems, conceptual design for point-to-point and broadcast communications satellites, and analytic relationships between subsystem parameters and an overall link performance are discussed along with baseline conceptual systems, sensitivity studies, model adjustment analyses, identification of critical technologies and their risks, and brief research and development program scenarios for the technologies judged to be moderate or extensive risks. Identification of technologies for millimeter satellite communication systems, and assessment of the relative risks of these technologies, was accomplished through subsystem modeling and link optimization for both point-to-point and broadcast applications.

Hilsen, N. B.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, and Psychosocial Adaptions within a Team

The Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (the Team Risk) is primarily performance-focused, with a secondary emphasis on behavioral health outcomes resulting from team performance and interpersonal interactions. Monitoring tools, measures, and countermeasures are aimed at enhancing team processes and team composition configurations to optimize team performance and functioning. Long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will include major challenges that could affect team performance, including social isolation, physical confinement, a small and diverse crew, communication delays between crew and ground, limited or no crew rotation or evacuation options, limited or no resupply, and a high-consequence environment. Each of these conditions will affect the crew’s coordination, cooperation, psychological well-being, and performance. Although the International Space Station (ISS) remains important for studies that require spaceflight testing and validation, the current conditions on the ISS do not adequately mimic the exploration environment that is required for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) teams research, and thus access to terrestrial or ground-based analogs of LDEM conditions is paramount. The emphasis on analogs for research is reflected in this updated evidence review of the Team Risk, and includes data from studies conducted at isolated, confined, extreme (ICE) environments (e.g., Antarctic stations), and from several mission simulation analogs such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) (HERA Experiment Information Package, 2014), also known as isolated, confined, controlled (ICC) environments. These studies have characterized many team factors regarding LDEMs, and the Team Risk has now matured from risk characterization to focusing more on countermeasure development. Because spaceflight evidence for team-level research is lacking, no reliable data is available to quantify the impact of team-level variables on individual and team-level outcomes during spaceflight missions. Until recently, no systematic attempt had been undertaken to measure the performance effects of team cohesion, team composition, team training, or team-related psychosocial adaptation during spaceflight. The Team Risk is a relatively young research area for NASA, with substantial growth only since the 2000s, and with limited access to spaceflight performance data. As a result, spaceflight evidence is lacking to identify specifically what team composition, level of training, amount of cohesion, or quality of psychosocial adaptation is necessary to reduce the risk of performance errors in space. However, astronaut journals and interviews and reports from spaceflight subject matter experts (SMEs) provide testimonies that team performance during spaceflight is important for mission success and to maintain crew health. Team spaceflight data is now being collected as part of the Spaceflight Standard Measures task (Clement, 2021)—a set of core measurements related to many human spaceflight risks that are collected from astronauts before, during, and after long-duration missions. The team-related standard measures focus on team cohesion, team performance, group living, team climate, and team processes. Collection of standard measures data is ongoing and published data is not yet available. Finally, although spaceflight evidence is lacking, evidence gleaned from ground studies and spaceflight analog studies will help close the gaps outlined in the Team Risk. Ground-based studies provide quantitative evidence for team functioning in ICE environments. Academic research on teams has produced dozens of meta-analyses that can be used to understand the general relationships among team inputs (e.g., team member characteristics and skills, job context), team processes, and emergent states (e.g., coordination, communication, cooperation, cohesion, trust, shared cognition), and team outcomes (e.g., effectiveness, errors, adaptation). Teams are complex, incorporating individual characteristics of team members, but also existing at a level that is greater than the sum of its parts. Therefore, the Team Risk must be integrated with other individual-focused NASA Human Research Program (HRP) risks, including Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Sleep, and Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), and emerging research indicates more integration may needed between the Team Risk and the physiologically oriented risks. Much of this integration occurs through the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB). A lack of team functioning may be a stressor in some circumstances, but the team often acts as a countermeasure. For example, support for team leaders and teammates can facilitate individual functioning and encourage psychological and physically healthy behaviors and attitudes. However, more research is needed regarding teams during LDEMs and the remaining gaps in the research are described in the current report.

Lauren Blackwell Landon↗
NASA NTRS1999

Acceptance Testing of a Satellite SCADA Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System

Savannah State University (SSU) and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) have been participating in the NASA Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) program for the last five years. This program was designed by NASA to help maintain U.S. leadership in commercial space communications by funding high-risk research, and to flight-test next-generation digital satellite components. Launched in 1993, ACTS is an U.S. government funded technology test-bed that incorporates high power Ka-band transponders, small spot beams, and on-board digital storage and switching technology. Associated with the spacecraft, is a prototype satellite control center that supports various application experiments. The SSU/FSEC application experiment is to developing a Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid Power system complete with satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA). The hybrid system was design to demonstrate the feasibility of using SCADA to maintain and operate remote village power systems. This configuration would enable experts at a central location to provide technical assistance to local technicians while they acquire a measure of proficiency with the hybrid system operation and maintenance. Upon full mastery of the technology, similar SCADA arrangement are planned to remotely monitor and control constellation of hybrid systems scattered overlarge rural areas. Two Orion Energy APEX-1000 hybrid systems were delivered in 1998, one was installed at SSU in eastern Georgia and the other was installed at FSEC in Central Florida. The project was designed to: (1) evaluate the performance of ACTS in a SCADA arrangement, (2) monitor the health and performance of all major hybrid subsystems, (3) investigate load control and battery charging strategies to maximize battery capacity and lifetime, and (4) develop satellite communication protocol. Preliminary results indicate that the hybrid design is suitable for satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition. A modification to the controller software has produced a robust communication link capable of real time control and long term data collection.

Kalu, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2002

Continuous Risk Management

Risk identification is an ongoing activity that takes place during the routine project work flow. Project activities such as programmatic and technical meetings, telecons, reviews, and other forms of communication often bring to light project risks. When this occurs, we record and analyze the risk on a Risk Information Sheet. This process helps the project team identify and cope with project risks throughout the life of the project.

Sabelhaus, Phil↗
NASA NTRS1985

Strategies for FH/MFSK signaling with diversity in worst-case partial-band noise

Optimum diversity and worst-case partial-band noise jamming conditions have been derived for noncoherent energy detection of frequency-hopped (FH) M-ary frequency-shift keyed (MFSK) signals using a soft-chip decision suboptimum linear combining metric with perfect jamming-state side information. However, the assumption implicit in previous publications is that the error is first maximized over the jammer's partial-band duty factor for arbitrary diversity, and the result is then minimized over the amount of diversity. This paper shows that if the order of optimization is reversed, different conditions and performance are produced; that is, the previous solution is not a saddlepoint. This introduces some game-theoretic considerations for the communicator and the jammer, the risks and advantages of which are explored.

Levitt, B. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A mission design for International Manned Mars Mission - From the 1991 International Space University (ISU) Design Project

The International Space University (ISU) conducted a study of an international program to support human exploration of Mars as its annual Design Project activity during its 1991 summer session in Toulouse, France. Although an ISU Design Project strives to produce an in-depth analysis during the intense 10-week summer session, the International Mars Mission (IMM) project was conducted in a manner designed to provide a learning experience for young professionals working in an unusual multidisciplinary and multinational environment. The breadth of the IMM study exceeds that of most Mars mission studies of the past, encompassing political organization for long-term commitment, multinational management structure, cost analysis, mission architecture, vehicle configuration, crew health, life support, Mars surface infrastructure, mission operations, technology evaluation, risk assessment, scientific planning, exploration, communication networks, and Martian resource utilization. The IMM Final Report has particular value for those seeking insight into the choices made by a multinational group working in an apolitical environment on the problems of international cooperation in space.

Mendell, Wendell W.↗