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At least 145 records · Page 8

Primordial black hole formation by vacuum bubbles. Part II

The discoveries of LIGO/Virgo black holes in recent years have revitalized the study of primordial black holes. In this work we investigate a mechanism where primordial black holes are formed by vacuum bubbles that randomly nucleate during inflation through quantum tunneling. After inflation, these bubbles typically run into the ambient radiation fluid with a large Lorentz factor. In our previous work, we assumed the bubble fields are strongly coupled to the standard model particles so that the bubble wall is impermeable. Here we complete this picture by considering bubbles interacting with the fluid only through gravity. By studying the scenario in several limits, we found that black holes could form in the either subcritical or supercritical regime. Depending on the model parameters, the resulting mass spectrum of the black holes could be wide or narrow, and may develop two peaks separated by a large mass range. Finally, with different spectra, these black holes may account for the LIGO/Virgo black holes, supermassive black holes, and may play an important role in dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prospects for Heavy Neutral SUSY HIGGS Scalars in the hMSSM and Natural SUSY at LHC Upgrades

We examine production and decay of heavy neutral SUSY Higgs bosons pp→H,A→ττ¯ within the hMSSM and compare against a perhaps more plausible natural supersymmetry scenario dubbed mh125(nat) which allows for a natural explanation for mweak≃mW,Z,h∼100 GeV while maintaining mh≃125 GeV. We evaluate signal against various Standard Model backgrounds from γ,Z→ττ¯, tt¯ and vector boson pair production VV. We combine the transverse mass method for back-to-back (BtB) taus along with the ditau mass peak mττ method for acollinear taus as our signal channels. This technique ultimately gives a boost to the signal significance over the standard technique of using just the BtB signal channel. We evaluate both the 95% CL exclusion and 5σ discovery reach in the mA vs. tanβ plane for present LHC with 139 fb−1, Run 3 with 300 fb−1 and high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) with 3000 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. For tanβ=10, the exclusion limits range up to mA∼1, 1.1 and 1.4 TeV, respectively. These may be compared to the range of mA values gleaned from a statistical analysis of the string landscape wherein mA can range up to ∼8 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantifying and modeling of stress-driven short-circuits in lithium-ion batteries in electrified vehicles

Despite the huge expansion of electric vehicle sales in the market, customers are discouraged by the possible catastrophic consequences brought by the safety issues of lithium-ion batteries, such as internal short circuits, especially in crash scenarios. Herein, we reveal the quantitative relationship between the deformations of the battery and the internal short circuit. By in situ and ex situ observations and post mortem characterization of the component materials, we quantify the stress-driven internal short circuit and failure behavior of the component material. With the aid of a validated numerical computational model as well as the in situ characterization of the global-field temperature, we successfully identify the minor and major short circuits of the cells upon various mechanical abusive loadings. Finally, we establish the internal short circuit criteria for typical formats of batteries. Furthermore, this discovery also provides a fundamental understanding of both internal and external stress-driven short circuits in a much broader context.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb: Cold Neptune with Possible Jovian Sibling

We report the discovery of the planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb, with very obvious signatures in the light curve that lead to an estimate of the planet-host mass ratio q=M{sub planet}/M{sub host}≃1×10{sup −4}. Although there are no obvious systematic residuals to this double-lens/single-source (2L1S) fit, we find that χ {sup 2} can be significantly improved by adding either a third lens (3L1S, Δχ {sup 2} = 81) or second source (2L2S, Δχ {sup 2} = 77) to the lens-source geometry. After thorough investigation, we conclude that we cannot decisively distinguish between these two scenarios and therefore focus on the robustly detected planet. However, given the possible presence of a second planet, we investigate to what degree and with what probability such additional planets may affect seemingly single-planet light curves. Our best estimates for the properties of the lens star and the secure planet are a host mass M ∼ 0.25 M {sub ⊙}, system distance D {sub L} ∼ 1 kpc, and planet mass m{sub p,1}=8 M{sub ⊕} with projected separation a{sub 1,⊥}=1.4 au. However, there is a relatively bright I = 18.6 (and also relatively blue) star projected within <50 mas of the lens, and if future high-resolution images show that this is coincident with the lens, then it is possible that it is the lens, in which case, the lens would be both more massive and more distant than the best-estimated values above.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IceCube high-energy starting event sample: Description and flux characterization with 7.5 years of data

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has established the existence of a high-energy all-sky neutrino flux of astrophysical origin. This discovery was made using events interacting within a fiducial region of the detector surrounded by an active veto and with reconstructed energy above 60 TeV, commonly known as the high-energy starting event sample (HESE). Here, we revisit the analysis of the HESE sample with an additional 4.5 years of data, newer glacial ice models, and improved systematics treatment. This paper describes the sample in detail, reports on the latest astrophysical neutrino flux measurements, and presents a source search for astrophysical neutrinos. We give the compatibility of these observations with specific isotropic flux models proposed in the literature as well as generic power-law-like scenarios. Assuming ν e :ν μ :ν τ =1:1:1, and an equal flux of neutrinos and antineutrinos, we find that the astrophysical neutrino spectrum is compatible with an unbroken power law, with a preferred spectral index of $2.87_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$ for the 68% confidence interval.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Demystifying group-4 polyolefin hydrogenolysis catalysis: Gaseous propane hydrogenolysis mechanism over the same catalysts

A kinetic/mechanistic investigation of gaseous propane hydrogenolysis over the single-site heterogeneous polyolefin depolymerization catalysts AlS/ZrNp 2 and AlS/HfNp 2 (AlS = sulfated alumina, Np = neopentyl), is use to probe intrinsic catalyst properties without the complexities introduced by time- and viscosity-dependent polymer medium effects. In a polymer-free automated plug-flow catalytic reactor, propane hydrogenolysis turnover frequencies approach 3,000 h −1 at 150 °C. Both catalysts exhibit approximately linear relationships between rate and [H 2 ] at substoichiometric [H 2 ] with rate law orders of 0.66 ± 0.09 and 0.48 ± 0.07 for Hf and Zr, respectively; at higher [H 2 ], the rates approach zero-order in [H 2 ]. Reaction orders in [C 3 H 8 ] and [catalyst] are essentially zero-order under all conditions, with the former implying rapid, irreversible alkane binding/activation. This rate law, activation parameter, and DFT energy span analysis support a scenario in which [H 2 ] is pivotal in one of two plausible and competing rate-determining transition states—bimolecular metal-alkyl bond hydrogenolysis vs. unimolecular β-alkyl elimination. The Zr and Hf catalyst activation parameters, ΔH ‡ = 16.8 ± 0.2 kcal mol −1 and 18.2 ± 0.6 kcal mol −1 , respectively, track the relative turnover frequencies, while ΔS ‡ = −19.1 ± 0.8 and −16.7 ± 1.4 cal mol −1 K −1 , respectively, imply highly organized transition states. These catalysts maintain activity up to 200 °C, while time-on-stream data indicate multiday activities with an extrapolated turnover number ~92,000 at 150 °C for the Zr catalyst. This methodology is attractive for depolymerization catalyst discovery and process optimization.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signatures

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. Here, to address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system—SigTime—with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Review of opportunities for new long-lived particle triggers in Run 3 of the Large Hadron Collider

Long-lived particles (LLPs) are highly motivated signals of physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) with great discovery potential and unique experimental challenges. The LLP search programme made great advances during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), but many important regions of signal space remain unexplored. Dedicated triggers are crucial to improve the potential of LLP searches, and their development and expansion is necessary for the full exploitation of the new data. The public discussion of triggers has therefore been a relevant theme in the recent LLP literature, in the meetings of the LLP@LHC Community workshop and in the respective experiments. This paper documents the ideas collected during talks and discussions at these Workshops, benefiting as well from the ideas under development by the trigger community within the experimental collaborations. We summarise the theoretical motivations of various LLP scenarios leading to highly elusive signals, reviewing concrete ideas for triggers that could greatly extend the reach of the LHC experiments. We thus expect this document to encourage further thinking for both the phenomenological and experimental communities, as a stepping stone to further develop the LLP@LHC physics programme.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Elucidation of trophic interactions in an unusual single-cell nitrogen-fixing symbiosis using metabolic modeling

Marine nitrogen-fixing microorganisms are an important source of fixed nitrogen in oceanic ecosystems. The colonial cyanobacterium Trichodesmium and diatom symbionts were thought to be the primary contributors to oceanic N 2 fixation until the discovery of the unusual uncultivated symbiotic cyanobacterium UCYN-A ( Candidatus Atelocyanobacterium thalassa ). UCYN-A has atypical metabolic characteristics lacking the oxygen-evolving photosystem II, the tricarboxylic acid cycle, the carbon-fixation enzyme RuBisCo and de novo biosynthetic pathways for a number of amino acids and nucleotides. Therefore, it is obligately symbiotic with its single-celled haptophyte algal host. UCYN-A receives fixed carbon from its host and returns fixed nitrogen, but further insights into this symbiosis are precluded by both UCYN-A and its host being uncultured. In order to investigate how this syntrophy is coordinated, we reconstructed bottom-up genome-scale metabolic models of UCYN-A and its algal partner to explore possible trophic scenarios, focusing on nitrogen fixation and biomass synthesis. Since both partners are uncultivated and only the genome sequence of UCYN-A is available, we used the phylogenetically related Chrysochromulina tobin as a proxy for the host. Through the use of flux balance analysis (FBA), we determined the minimal set of metabolites and biochemical functions that must be shared between the two organisms to ensure viability and growth. We quantitatively investigated the metabolic characteristics that facilitate daytime N 2 fixation in UCYN-A and possible oxygen-scavenging mechanisms needed to create an anaerobic environment to allow nitrogenase to function. This is the first application of an FBA framework to examine the tight metabolic coupling between uncultivated microbes in marine symbiotic communities and provides a roadmap for future efforts focusing on such specialized systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computationally Accelerated Discovery and Experimental Demonstration of High-Performance Materials for Advanced Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

This project achieved its overarching goal of accelerating the discovery and validation of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) materials through a tightly integrated approach that combined high-throughput computational screening, advanced machine learning (ML), and experimental testing. Guided by the objectives outlined in the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), our work fulfilled all major milestones across four technical tasks and delivered scientific breakthroughs and practical tools that significantly exceeded the original scope of the project. We began by addressing the challenge of predicting material phase stability through machine learning. A novel Python module was developed to generate thousands of meaningful features from composition, structure, and electronic properties, enabling rapid and reproducible ML model development. Using these tools, we trained a model to predict temperature-dependent Gibbs energies (G(T)) for inorganic crystalline materials with near-chemical accuracy—roughly 40 meV/atom—marking the first such descriptor of its kind. We also introduced a new machine-learned tolerance factor, τ, that accurately predicted perovskite formability with over 90% success, outperforming traditional heuristic models, such as the Goldschmidt tolerance factor. These capabilities allowed for rapid and accurate predictions of phase stability across a vast oxide composition space, setting the stage for high-throughput thermodynamic screening. Building on this foundation, we conducted an extensive computational screening of candidate STCH oxide materials. Over 1.1 million perovskite compositions were evaluated using the τ descriptor, leading to the identification of more than 27,000 predicted stable structures. Using density functional theory (DFT), we refined over 68,000 multinary perovskite structures and computed oxygen vacancy formation energies for over 1,300 ternary and double perovskites. These calculations enabled us to isolate compounds with redox behavior consistent with STCH requirements and resulted in a public dataset now hosted on the Materials Project. Recognizing that thermodynamic screening alone is insufficient, we addressed kinetic limitations by developing a suite of tools to estimate transition state (TS) energies for key redox reactions. We implemented a novel bounding approach that provides lower and upper estimates of TS energies with dramatically reduced computational cost, requiring less than 10% of the CPU time of a full nudged elastic band (NEB) calculation while maintaining high accuracy. This enabled rapid evaluation of over 200 reaction pathways across 90 materials. To further accelerate screening, we developed a SISSO-based ML model to predict diffusion barriers with a 96.7% success rate in classifying fast vs. slow materials, supporting a robust, data-driven framework for assessing redox kinetics. Experimental validation was critical to confirming the predictive power of our models. We synthesized and tested a wide array of candidate materials, including Mn-doped hercynite and several Gd- and La-based perovskites. Notably, Sr 0.4 Gd 0.6 Mn 0.6 Al 0.4 O 3 (SGMA) and Gd 0.5 La 0.5 Co 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 3 (GLCF) emerged as leading STCH materials, exhibiting robust redox cycling and high hydrogen yields exceeding 150 µmol H 2 /g per cycle. These materials also retained over 50% of their hydrogen productivity under high-conversion conditions (H 2 O:H 2 = 1333:1), demonstrating strong thermodynamic favorability and promising performance under industrially relevant scenarios. Additional candidates, such as La 2 MnNiO 6 (L2MN), were found to produce even higher yields than ceria under standard STCH conditions. Our collaborators at Sandia National Laboratories confirmed these findings using high-temperature X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis, observing stable phase evolution and reversible redox activity. In several respects, the project went beyond the goals initially outlined in the SOPO. We published 17 peer-reviewed articles, including a large dataset of over 66,000 theoretical perovskites and a new structure prediction method (SPuDS-DFT) that accurately identifies ground-state structures at a fraction of the cost of traditional DFT. We demonstrated that our machine-learned G(T) model offers accuracy rivaling quasiharmonic calculations while being orders of magnitude faster. In partnership with the Materials Project, we made our datasets openly available, providing a powerful new resource for the broader materials science community. The combined computational and experimental advances of this project represent a significant advance in STCH materials discovery. By creating a robust, generalizable, and open workflow for thermodynamic and kinetic screening, and validating key findings through synthesis and reactor testing, we have provided a practical and scalable pathway for the rapid identification of new redox-active materials. The tools, data, and materials developed under this project are already supporting ongoing research and have laid the groundwork for the next generation of solar fuel technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Measurement of the Higgs boson width and evidence of its off-shell contributions to ZZ production

Since the discovery of the Higgs boson in 2012, detailed studies of its properties have been ongoing. Besides its mass, its width - related to its lifetime - is an important parameter. One way to determine this quantity is by measuring its off-shell production, where the Higgs boson mass is far away from its nominal value, and relating it to its on-shell production, where the mass is close to the nominal value. Here, we report evidence for such off-shell contributions to the production cross section of two Z bosons with data from the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. We constrain the total rate of the off-shell Higgs boson contribution beyond the Z boson pair production threshold, relative to its standard model expectation, to the interval [0.0061, 2.0] at 95% confidence level. The scenario with no off-shell contribution is excluded at a p-value of 0.0003 (3.6 standard deviations). We measure the width of the Higgs boson as $\Gamma_{\mathrm{H}}$ = 3.2 $_{-1.7}^{+2.4}$ MeV, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 4.1 MeV. In addition, we set constraints on anomalous Higgs boson couplings to W and Z boson pairs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A JWST Survey of the Supernova Remnant Cassiopeia A

We present initial results from a James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) survey of the youngest Galactic core-collapse supernova remnant, Cassiopeia A (Cas A), made up of NIRCam and MIRI imaging mosaics that map emission from the main shell, interior, and surrounding circumstellar/interstellar material (CSM/ISM). We also present four exploratory positions of MIRI Medium Resolution Spectrograph integral field unit spectroscopy that sample ejecta, CSM, and associated dust from representative shocked and unshocked regions. Surprising discoveries include (1) a weblike network of unshocked ejecta filaments resolved to ~0.01 pc scales exhibiting an overall morphology consistent with turbulent mixing of cool, low-entropy matter from the progenitor's oxygen layer with hot, high-entropy matter heated by neutrino interactions and radioactivity; (2) a thick sheet of dust-dominated emission from shocked CSM seen in projection toward the remnant's interior pockmarked with small (~1'') round holes formed by ≲0$^"_•$1 knots of high-velocity ejecta that have pierced through the CSM and driven expanding tangential shocks; and (3) dozens of light echoes with angular sizes between ~0$^"_•$1 and 1' reflecting previously unseen fine-scale structure in the ISM. NIRCam observations place new upper limits on infrared emission (≲20 nJy at 3 μm) from the neutron star in Cas A's center and tightly constrain scenarios involving a possible fallback disk. These JWST survey data and initial findings help address unresolved questions about massive star explosions that have broad implications for the formation and evolution of stellar populations, the metal and dust enrichment of galaxies, and the origin of compact remnant objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable stars in Local Group galaxies – V. The fast and early evolution of the low-mass Eridanus II dSph galaxy

ABSTRACT We present a detailed study of the variable star population of Eridanus II (Eri II), an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy that lies close to the Milky Way virial radius. We analyse multi-epoch g, r, i ground-based data from Goodman and the Dark Energy Camera, plus F475W, F606W, F814W space data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys. We report the detection of 67 RR Lyrae (RRL) stars and 2 Anomalous Cepheids, most of them new discoveries. With the RRL stars, we measure the distance modulus of Eri II, μ0 = 22.84 ± 0.05 mag (D⊙ = 370 ± 9 kpc), and derive a metallicity spread of 0.3 dex (0.2 dex intrinsic). The colour distribution of the horizontal branch (HB) and the period distribution of the RRL stars can be nicely reproduced by a combination of two stellar models of [Fe/H] = (−2.62, −2.14). The overall low metallicity is consistent with the red giant branch bump location, 0.65 mag brighter than the HB. These results are in agreement with previous spectroscopic studies. The more metal-rich RRL and the RRab stars have greater central concentration than the more metal-poor RRL and the RRc stars that are mainly located outside ∼1 rh. This is similar to what is found in larger dwarf galaxies such as Sculptor, and in agreement with an outside-in galaxy formation scenario. This is remarkable in such a faint dwarf galaxy with an apparently single and extremely short (<1 Gyr) star formation burst. Finally, we have derived new and independent structural parameters for Eri II and its star cluster using our new data that are in very good agreement with previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOI-1749: an M dwarf with a Trio of Planets including a Near-resonant Pair

We report the discovery of one super-Earth- (TOI-1749b) and two sub-Neptune-sized planets (TOI-1749c and TOI-1749d) transiting an early M dwarf at a distance of 100 pc, which were first identified as planetary candidates using data from the TESS photometric survey. We have followed up this system from the ground by means of multiband transit photometry, adaptive optics imaging, and low-resolution spectroscopy, from which we have validated the planetary nature of the candidates. We find that TOI-1749b, c, and d have orbital periods of 2.39, 4.49, and 9.05 days, and radii of 1.4, 2.1, and 2.5 R {sub ⊕}, respectively. We also place 95% confidence upper limits on the masses of 57, 14, and 15 M {sub ⊕} for TOI-1749b, c, and d, respectively, from transit timing variations. The periods, sizes, and tentative masses of these planets are in line with a scenario in which all three planets initially had a hydrogen envelope on top of a rocky core, and only the envelope of the innermost planet has been stripped away by photoevaporation and/or core-powered mass-loss mechanisms. These planets are similar to other planetary trios found around M dwarfs, such as TOI-175b,c,d and TOI-270b,c,d, in the sense that the outer pair has a period ratio within 1% of 2. Such a characteristic orbital configuration, in which an additional planet is located interior to a near 2:1 period-ratio pair, is relatively rare around FGK dwarfs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Broadband Counterpart of the Short GRB 200522A at z = 0.5536: A Luminous Kilonova or a Collimated Outflow with a Reverse Shock?

In this work, we present the discovery of the radio afterglow and near-infrared (NIR) counterpart of the Swift short gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 200522A, located at a small projected offset of ≈1 kpc from the center of a young, star-forming host galaxy at z = 0.5536. The radio and X-ray luminosities of the afterglow are consistent with those of on-axis cosmological short GRBs. The NIR counterpart, revealed by our Hubble Space Telescope observations at a rest-frame time of ≈2.3 days, has a luminosity of ≈(1.3–1.7) × 10 42 erg s -1 . This is substantially lower than on-axis short GRB afterglow detections but is a factor of ≈8–17 more luminous than the kilonova of GW170817 and significantly more luminous than any kilonova candidate for which comparable observations exist. The combination of the counterpart's color (i - y = -0.08 ± 0.21; rest frame) and luminosity cannot be explained by standard radioactive heating alone. Additionally, we present two scenarios to interpret the broadband behavior of GRB 200522A: a synchrotron forward shock with a luminous kilonova (potentially boosted by magnetar energy deposition), or forward and reverse shocks from a ≈14°, relativistic (Γ0 ≳ 10) jet. Models that include a combination of enhanced radioactive heating rates, low-lanthanide mass fractions, or additional sources of heating from late-time central engine activity may provide viable alternate explanations. If a stable magnetar was indeed produced in GRB 200522A, we predict that late-time radio emission will be detectable starting ≈0.3–6 yr after the burst for a deposited energy of ≈10 53 erg. Counterparts of similar luminosity to GRB 200522A associated with gravitational wave events will be detectable with current optical searches to ≈250 Mpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cluster Difference Imaging Photometric Survey. II. TOI 837: A Young Validated Planet in IC 2602

We report the discovery of TOI 837b and its validation as a transiting planet. We characterize the system using data from the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission, the ESA Gaia mission, ground-based photometry from El Sauce and ASTEP400, and spectroscopy from CHIRON, FEROS, and Veloce. We find that TOI 837 is a T = 9.9 mag G0/F9 dwarf in the southern open cluster IC 2602. The star and planet are therefore 35$_{-5}^{+11}$ million years old. Combining the transit photometry with a prior on the stellar parameters derived from the cluster color–magnitude diagram, we find that the planet has an orbital period of 8.3 days and is slightly smaller than Jupiter (R p =0.77$_{-0.07}^{+0.09}$ R Jup ). From radial velocity monitoring, we limit M p sin i to less than 1.20 M Jup (3σ). The transits either graze or nearly graze the stellar limb. Grazing transits are a cause for concern, as they are often indicative of astrophysical false-positive scenarios. Our follow-up data show that such scenarios are unlikely. Our combined multicolor photometry, high-resolution imaging, and radial velocities rule out hierarchical eclipsing binary scenarios. Background eclipsing binary scenarios, though limited by speckle imaging, remain a 0.2% possibility. TOI 837b is therefore a validated adolescent exoplanet. The planetary nature of the system can be confirmed or refuted through observations of the stellar obliquity and the planetary mass. Such observations may also improve our understanding of how the physical and orbital properties of exoplanets change in time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗