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At least 145 records · Page 8

Economic and Jobs Impacts of Point-Source Carbon Capture in Cement Industry – Case Study

The cement industry accounts for an estimated 8% of global CO2 emissions, which surpasses that of the entire aviation sector. In contrast with other industries, where CO2 emissions can be drastically reduced via electrification or fuels substitution, cement production releases CO2 as part of its process, during the calcination of carbonates to yield oxides. Thus, point-source carbon capture has become a key technology in the cement industry’s decarbonization. Apart from the expected environmental benefits, point-source carbon capture in the cement industry can yield important economic benefits and create jobs. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the economic and workforce impacts associated with the construction and operation of a point-source carbon capture retrofit of an existing cement production facility, using as a basis the data from a front-end engineering design (FEED) study to install a 3.9 million metric tons per year (Mtpy) CO2 capture facility at Holcim Ste Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, United States of America. The advanced carbon capture technology used in this FEED study was Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ FG carbon capture technology. The study evaluated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance activities of the project over its lifespan. It also covered how the project will generate new jobs, their nature, and quantity, along with strategies to prepare the workforce. To perform this study, construction, operation, and maintenance cost estimates, as well as construction and operation staffing plans from the FEED study were input into IMPLAN version 7.5 software, licensed by IMPLAN Group LLC (Huntersville, VC), to predict the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the project using industry multipliers from the software. Additionally, recruitment strategies were developed for hiring individuals who belong to groups that are historically underserved or underrepresented, as well as anticipated recruitment of workers from the local community (whether training will be required or if the skills are associated with an existing labor force). The analysis estimated that the construction and operation of the carbon capture at Holcim Ste. Genevive will result in over 24 thousand work-years of job opportunities, close to USD 10 billion of economic impacts, including over USD 460 million of tax revenue. These results encompass the direct, indirect, and induced effects. A strategy to maximize hiring from the project and neighboring counties was developed, leveraging training agreements with local trade groups and universities. The result of this study can be used for a strategic preliminary assessment of the potential regional economic and job impacts of retrofitting existing cement plants with point source carbon systems, and its methodology can be replicated to individual projects to aid in planning and workforce development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana , recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent mysteries of jet engines, formation, propagation, and particle acceleration: Have they been addressed experimentally?

Here, the physics of astrophysical jets can be divided into three regimes: (i) engine and launch (ii) propagation and collimation, (iii) dissipation and particle acceleration. Since astrophysical jets comprise a huge range of scales and phenomena, practicality dictates that most studies of jets intentionally or inadvertently focus on one of these regimes, and even therein, one body of work may be simply boundary condition for another. We first discuss long standing persistent mysteries that pertain the physics of each of these regimes, independent of the method used to study them. This discussion makes contact with frontiers of plasma astrophysics more generally. While observations theory, and simulations, and have long been the main tools of the trade, what about laboratory experiments? Jet related experiments have offered controlled studies of specific principles, physical processes, and benchmarks for numerical and theoretical calculations. We discuss what has been accomplished on these fronts. Although experiments have indeed helped us to understand certain processes, proof of principle concepts, and benchmarked codes, they have yet to solved an astrophysical jet mystery on their own. A challenge is that experimental tools used for jet-related experiments so far, are typically not machines originally designed for that purpose, or designed with specific astrophysical mysteries in mind. This presents an opportunity for a different way of thinking about the development of future platforms: start with the astrophysical mystery and build an experiment to address it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Investigating the Influence of River Geomorphology on Human Presence Using Night Light Data: A Case Study in the Indus Basin

Human settlements have historically thrived near rivers due to enhanced navigation and trade, and the availability of water supply and resources. The use of night light data, representing economic activities, provides a novel approach to studying the interactions between human activity and rivers over time. Here, we use the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) stable night light data from 2000 to 2013 as a proxy for human presence and activities to quantify the statistical relationships between night light presence and intensity in the Indus Basin, Asia. We test how these data are affected by proximity to trunk channels and by channel type (single/multi-thread) in the study area. We find that night light presence is enhanced by 26% within a 0 to 5 km proximity range of the Indus River and its tributaries, relative to the basin as a whole. We interpret this to represent increased human presence and activity within this zone. However, the mean intensity is lower near the river and higher away from the river, signifying denser settlements, such as towns and cities, which are preferentially located away from the Indus and its tributaries. Moreover, the enhancement of lit pixels signifying human presence and activities is increased by 18% near single-thread sections of the Indus River, compared to segments of the Indus displaying multi-thread morphologies. We suggest that this is due to the enhanced stability of single-threaded channels, relative to mobile multi-threaded channel reaches. This study demonstrates how night lights are an important tool in studying the relationship between human presence and river dynamics in large catchments such as the Indus, and we suggest that these data will have an important role in assessing differential flood spatial and social vulnerability at a regional scale.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Designing Spin‐Crossover Systems to Enhance Thermopower and Thermoelectric Figure‐of‐Merit in Paramagnetic Materials

Thermoelectric materials, capable of converting temperature gradients into electrical power, have been traditionally limited by a trade‐off between thermopower and electrical conductivity. This study introduces a novel, broadly applicable approach that enhances both the spin‐driven thermopower and the thermoelectric figure‐of‐merit (zT) without compromising electrical conductivity, using temperature‐driven spin crossover. Our approach, supported by both theoretical and experimental evidence, is demonstrated through a case study of chromium doped‐manganese telluride, but is not confined to this material and can be extended to other magnetic materials. By introducing dopants to create a high crystal field and exploiting the entropy changes associated with temperature‐driven spin crossover, we achieved a significant increase in thermopower, by approximately 136 μV K −1 , representing more than a 200% enhancement at elevated temperatures within the paramagnetic domain. Our exploration of the bipolar semiconducting nature of these materials reveals that suppressing bipolar magnon/paramagnon‐drag thermopower is key to understanding and utilizing spin crossover‐driven thermopower. These findings, validated by inelastic neutron scattering, X‐ray photoemission spectroscopy, thermal transport, and energy conversion measurements, shed light on crucial material design parameters. We provide a comprehensive framework that analyzes the interplay between spin entropy, hopping transport, and magnon/paramagnon lifetimes, paving the way for the development of high‐performance spin‐driven thermoelectric materials.

magnons↗

Measure this, not that: Optimizing the cost and model-based information content of measurements

Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a powerful framework for selecting and calibrating science-based mathematical models from data. Here, this work extends popular MBDoE workflows by proposing a convex mixed integer (non)linear programming (MINLP) to optimize the selection of measurements. The solver MindtPy is modified to support calculating the D-optimality objective and its gradient via an external package, scipy, using the grey-box module in Pyomo. The new approach is demonstrated in two case studies: estimating highly correlated kinetics from a batch reactor and estimating transport parameters in a large-scale rotary packed bed for CO 2 capture. Both case studies show how examining the Pareto optimal trade-offs between information content measured by A- and D-optimality versus measurement budget offers practical guidance for selecting measurements for scientific experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A techno-economic assessment framework for hydrogen energy storage toward multiple energy delivery pathways and grid services

Hydrogen energy storage (HES) transforms and stores electric energy from the grid into hydrogen, and supplements other energy storage and demand response resources in addressing challenges in renewable-intensive power systems. Understanding how to optimally utilize an HES system to maximize its economic benefits from stacked value streams is highly important to its development and deployment. Here, in this paper, we present a techno-economic assessment framework for an HES system considering three common energy delivery pathways and multiple grid and end-user services. Models are developed to capture the operational capability, flexibility, and constraints associated with hydrogen production, compression, storage, and utilization as well as different grid services in an economic assessment. To define the technically achievable benefits, an optimal dispatch formulation is proposed to maximize the economic benefits over a representative year with an hourly time step considering the trade-offs among different value streams. Representative case studies are designed and carried out to show how system configuration, energy delivery pathways, and grid services may affect economic benefits. It was found that value streams from bundling grid services account for up to 76% of the total benefits and are critical for an HES project to be financially viable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Trends and limits of CO 2 capture in solid and liquid sorbents at standard conditions

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a critical role in achieving climate change mitigation targets, offering a pathway to decarbonize power generation, industrial processes, and heat production while addressing atmospheric CO 2 removal. While CCS technologies are technically advanced, the widespread adoption of 100 % CO 2 capture capacities such as 1 mol of CO 2 /mol of material and 1 g CO 2 /g storage (targeted by the DARPA, Defense Sciences Office, USA Govt.) has raised questions about the feasibility of achieving higher capture capacities. In the context of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reaching 100 % CO 2 capture capacity is increasingly necessary, with residual emissions requiring complementary carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. This review exclusively focuses on the CO 2 capture capacities of various sorbents under standard conditions, using different evaluation metrics. This study explores the performance of solid and liquid sorbents under standard conditions, analyzing factors including surface area, pore structure, solvent type, and functionalization to identify materials optimized for industrial-scale CCS applications. Emerging sorbents, including ILs, MOFs, COFs, POPs, DES, RCC, hybrid materials, and reactive sorbents, offer significant potential for enhanced selectivity and energy-efficient regeneration. Through a systematic assessment of gravimetric, volumetric, and molar capacities, the study provides insights into material efficiencies and trade-offs, offering guidance on optimizing sorbent selection for specific applications. The research advances understanding of scalable CCS technologies, contributing to global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions and address the pressing challenge of climate change.

Absorption↗

Accelerators for Classical Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Biomolecules

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations provide researchers the ability to model biomolecular structures such as proteins and their interactions with drug-like small molecules with greater spatiotemporal resolution than is otherwise possible using experimental methods. MD simulations are notoriously expensive computational endeavors that have traditionally required massive investment in specialized hardware to access biologically relevant spatiotemporal scales. Our goal is to summarize the fundamental algorithms that are employed in the literature to then highlight the challenges that have affected accelerator implementations in practice. We consider three broad categories of accelerators: Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), and Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). These categories are comparatively studied to facilitate discussion of their relative trade-offs and to gain context for the current state of the art. We conclude by providing insights into the potential of emerging hardware platforms and algorithms for MD.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scalable and Secure Power Outage Data Reporting: A Hexagonal Geospatial Approach

Power outages disrupt critical infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in economic losses annually in the United States. Accurate and granular outage reporting is vital for effective restoration and mitigation. This paper examines the integration of the Hexagonal Hierarchical Geospatial Indexing System (H3) to enhance power outage reporting, leveraging its uniform grid structure, scalable resolutions, and support for privacy-preserving analysis. Using high-resolution LandScan Global population data and K-anonymization techniques, this work achieves a balance between data granularity and privacy. Results show that lower privacy thresholds (e.g., K-anonymity = 2) enable higher resolution, while stricter thresholds (e.g., >15 people per hex) reduce granularity, potentially affecting localized responses. State-and county-level resolution case studies demonstrate H3’s adaptability and the trade-offs between precision and privacy. The proposed H3-based framework offers a scalable and efficient solution for geospatial data integration within the energy sector, such as outage data, aiding utilities and regulators in improving resilience and response efforts, particularly in disaster-prone regions.

Ahmad, Nasir [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000150677368)↗

Floating Wind Turbine Control Optimization

We present a framework for optimizing the control parameters of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The framework combines aeroelastic simulations with a systems engineering model and control software. In an example of the optimization framework, we minimize tower damage equivalent loading with generator speed constraints. We also study the effect of thrust-limiting control and quantify the trade off between fatigue loading and energy capture using a set of optimal controller designs. Finally, we optimize the controller of four different FOWT models and compare their dynamic responses. Additional details and other use cases for the framework are presented, which can optimize different control problems and evaluate FOWT designs.

controls↗

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

Regression of exchangeable relational arrays

Relational arrays represent measures of association between pairs of actors, often in varied contexts or over time. Trade flows between countries, financial transactions between individuals, contact frequencies between school children in classrooms and dynamic protein-protein interactions are all examples of relational arrays. Elements of a relational array are often modelled as a linear function of observable covariates. Uncertainty estimates for regression coefficient estimators, and ideally the coefficient estimators themselves, must account for dependence between elements of the array, e.g., relations involving the same actor. Existing estimators of standard errors that recognize such relational dependence rely on estimating extremely complex, heterogeneous structure across actors. This paper develops a new class of parsimonious coefficient and standard error estimators for regressions of relational arrays. Here we leverage an exchangeability assumption to derive standard error estimators that pool information across actors, and are substantially more accurate than existing estimators in a variety of settings. This exchangeability assumption is pervasive in network and array models in the statistics literature, but not previously considered when adjusting for dependence in a regression setting with relational data. We demonstrate improvements in inference theoretically, via a simulation study, and by analysis of a dataset involving international trade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

One hundred years into the study of ecotypes, new advances are being made through large-scale field experiments in perennial plant systems

A hundred years after Turesson first clearly described how locally adaptive variation is distributed within species, plant biologists are making major breakthroughs in our understanding of mechanisms underlying adaptation from local populations to the scale of continents. Although the genetics of local adaptation has typically been studied in smaller reciprocal transplant experiments, here it is being evaluated with whole genomes in large-scale networks of common garden experiments with perennial switchgrass and poplar trees. These studies support the hypothesis that a complex combination of loci, both with and without adaptive trade-offs, underlies local adaptation and that hybridization and adaptive introgression play a key role in the evolution of these species. Future studies incorporating high-throughput phenotyping, gene expression, and modeling will be used to predict responses of these species to climate change.

Trade-off↗

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗

CO2 partial pressure and fluxes in the Amazon River Plume using in situ and remote sensing data

Estimations of the global carbon budget include a quantitative understanding of the evolving processes that occur along river-to-ocean gradients. However, high spatiotemporal resolution observations of these processes are limited. Here we present in situ measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) made through the Amazon River plume (ARP) during different discharge seasons, from 2010-2012. We evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of pCO2 using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite observations for each hydrologic period in the ARP. Regression models were used to estimate pCO2 at the ARP for the period of 2010-2014. From these distributions we calculated sea-air gas exchange of CO2 between the plume waters and the atmosphere (F_co2^sea). Intra-annual variability of F_co2^sea was related to discharge at the river mouth and ocean currents as well as trade winds in the plume. Climatic events during the study period had a significant impact on the F_co2^sea. Including the plume area closer to the river mouth makes the ARP a net source of CO2 with an annual net sea-air flux of 8.6 ±7.1 Tg C y-1 from 2011-2014.

Amazon↗