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DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Calculus Approach to Boltzmann Transport

Traditional Monte Carlo methods for particle transport utilize source iteration to express the solution, the flux density, of the transport equation as a Neumann series. Our contribution is to show that the particle paths simulated within source iteration are associated with the adjoint flux density and the adjoint particle paths are associated with the flux density. Here, we make our assertion rigorous through the use of stochastic calculus by representing the particle path used in source iteration as a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The solution to the adjoint Boltzmann equation is then expressed in terms of the same SDE, and the solution to the Boltzmann equation is expressed in terms of the SDE associated with the adjoint particle process. An important consequence is that the particle paths used within source iteration simultaneously provide Monte Carlo samples of the flux density and adjoint flux density in the detector and source regions, respectively. The significant practical implication is that particle trajectories can be reused to obtain both forward and adjoint quantities of interest. To the best our knowledge, the reuse of entire particles paths has not appeared in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to support the reuse of the particle paths.

Boltzmann transport↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital twin framework for PIP-II linac: AI-driven multi-scale modeling from ion source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab is designed to deliver multi-megawatt proton beams for neutrino physics and other high-intensity applications. To expedite commissioning and enhance operational reliability, we have developed an EPICS-based data flow framework that seamlessly integrates digital twins (DT) with physical twins (PT). These digital twins comprise high-fidelity beam dynamics models or data-driven surrogate models connected to their physical counterparts through real-time diagnostics and advanced machine-learning algorithms.Central to this framework is Linac_Gen, an accelerated simulation tool that incorporates convolutional neural networks, random forests, and genetic algorithms to provide up to a tenfold speedup in optimizing the accelerator geometry model. An EPICS translator layer ensures interoperability by efficiently mapping lattice parameters across diverse simulation platforms.Our EPICS-based framework supports multiple operational modes—monitoring, passive learning, closed-loop control, and online learning—covering the entire machine lifecycle. By leveraging HPC resources and multi-objective optimization techniques, the digital twin enables adaptive trajectory correction, real-time fault detection, and predictive modeling of beam stability. This comprehensive approach paves the way for robust, high-intensity operation and data-driven accelerator R&D at Fermilab.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2025

Velocity-space signatures of shock-drift acceleration at quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks

The shock-drift acceleration of ions at quasi-perpendicular shocks is a well-known kinetic mechanism for the acceleration of a small fraction of incoming ions to high energy. Here, we use a suite of sixteen hybrid simulations of quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks over the range of Alfvén Mach number 4.3 ≤ M A ≤ 15.8 (corresponding to a range of fast magnetosonic Mach numbers 2.6 ≤ M f ≤ 9.4) and shock-normal angle 45°≤ θ Bn ≤ 90° to identify the velocity-space signature of shock-drift acceleration using the field-particle correlation technique. We show that the features of the ion velocity distribution in the shock foot and ramp regions can be clearly interpreted by analysis of the single-particle trajectory of a reflected ion through the full 3D-3V phase space. The characteristic features of the velocity-space signature of shock-drift acceleration remain qualitatively robust over the full parameter range of our simulations, providing a potential means for its identification using single-point spacecraft measurements. At higher Alfvén Mach numbers M A ≳8 (M f ≳5), kinetic instabilities generate fluctuations of the electromagnetic fields within the shock transition region, leading to fluctuations in and smearing out of the resulting velocity-space signatures, but the signature remains generally robust and identifiable. The results on the shock-drift acceleration of ions presented here represent a novel means to determine more completely the partitioning of upstream bulk flow kinetic energy into plasma heating, particle acceleration, and electromagnetic fields in collisionless shocks.

Howes, Gregory G. [Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

In Situ Atmospheric Plume Thermometry via Carbon Monoxide Spectral Profile: Laboratory and Field Validation

For small molecules with large rotational constants, knowing the relative intensities of the ro-vibrational transitions can be used to determine the temperature within a gas plume. We demonstrate the use of carbon monoxide (CO) as an in situ spectroscopic probe of gas plume temperature by application of both laboratory and standoff Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to monitor the CO spectral response at different temperatures. Here, the measured CO rotational contours were analyzed using a simple Boltzmann model to deduce the population distribution of the J-levels, from which the in-plume temperature is deduced. The method was vetted by comparing deduced temperatures in both static laboratory measurements of known temperatures, as well as field measurements using a simulated smokestack release. For the smokestack experiments, spectroscopically deduced temperatures were compared to readings from a series of thermocouples placed at strategically sampled distances along the plume trajectory. Both the spectroscopically-derived and thermocouple-measured temperatures revealed an expansion-induced (mixing) rapid cooling of the plume, with the infrared thermometry values displaying greater temperature values which are believed to better represent the actual plume temperatures.

Analysis of rotational structure↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adiabatic quantum imaginary time evolution

We introduce an adiabatic state preparation protocol which implements quantum imaginary time evolution under the Hamiltonian of the system. Unlike the original quantum imaginary time evolution algorithm, adiabatic quantum imaginary time evolution does not require quantum state tomography during its runtime and, unlike standard adiabatic state preparation, the final Hamiltonian is not the system Hamiltonian. Instead, the algorithm obtains the adiabatic Hamiltonian by integrating a classical differential equation that ensures that one follows the imaginary time evolution state trajectory. We introduce some heuristics that allow this protocol to be implemented on quantum architectures with limited resources. We explore the performance of this algorithm via classical simulations in a one-dimensional spin model and highlight essential features that determine its cost, performance, and implementability for longer times, and compare to the original quantum imaginary time evolution for ground-state preparation. More generally, our algorithm expands the range of states accessible to adiabatic state preparation methods beyond those that are expressed as ground states of simple explicit Hamiltonians. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Hejazi, Kasra (ORCID:000000032349478X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Building Retrofit Strategies Using AutoBEM Under Future Weather Scenarios

This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of energy conservation measures (ECMs) on building energy consumption using AutoBEM, a scalable modeling framework driven by the high-resolution Model America dataset. We simulated 18,951 buildings in Flagstaff, Arizona under four climate scenarios using Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files for six time periods spanning from 1980 to 2099. Six ECMs were analyzed across electricity and gas usage, including HVAC fuel-switching, insulation upgrades, and infiltration control. While some measures, such as reducing space infiltration by percentage, showed minimal or even negative impact on total energy savings at the aggregate level, they proved highly effective for specific building types. Conversely, HVAC electrification offers high gas reduction but shifts demand to electricity, highlighting critical trade-offs under different climate trajectories. Building-type-specific analysis under SSP5-RCP8.5 (2080–2099) revealed significant variation in ECM performance, underscoring the need for targeted retrofit strategies. This study demonstrates the power of combining fTMY projections with large-scale simulations to inform data-driven retrofit planning.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Path integral molecular dynamics: A high-fidelity approach to quantum dynamics of electrons

We investigate electron transport in the uniform electron gas using ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD). Working in the weakly coupled, non-degenerate regime, we use RPMD to probe how the onset of quantum diffraction effects at high temperature reshapes electron–electron collisions and leads to a classical-to-quantum crossover in macroscopic transport properties. Static thermodynamics obtained with RPMD are consistent with the weak-coupling equation of state, confirming correct quantum Boltzmann sampling. Real-time transport extracted from mean square displacements exhibits the expected ballistic-to-diffusive transition and a systematic reduction of the electronic self-diffusivity as quantum effects strengthen, due to quantum diffraction modifying electron–electron collisions. Direct ring-polymer scattering simulations reveal diffractive “softening” of binary deflections, providing a micro-to-macro link between collision physics and diffusion. The present study establishes RPMD as a quantitative, trajectory-based tool for electron transport across the classical–quantum crossover and furnishes benchmarks for improving Coulomb-log interpolation models. We outline extensions to multi-component plasmas and a path to incorporate Fermi–Dirac statistics within path-integral dynamics.

Electronic transport↗

DOE OSTI2025

New particle pusher with hadronic interactions for modeling multimessenger emission from compact objects

We propose novel numerical schemes based on the Boris method in curved spacetime, incorporating both hadronic and radiative interactions for the first time. Once the proton has lost significant energy due to radiative and hadronic losses, and its gyroradius has decreased below typical scales on which the electromagnetic field varies, we apply a guiding center approximation (GCA). We fundamentally simulate collision processes either with a Monte-Carlo method or, where applicable, as a continuous energy loss, contingent on the local optical depth. To test our algorithm for the first time combining the effects of electromagnetic, gravitational, and radiation fields including hadronic interactions, we simulate highly relativistic protons traveling through various electromagnetic fields and proton backgrounds. We provide unit tests in various spatially dependent electromagnetic and gravitational fields and background photon and proton distributions, comparing the trajectory against analytic results. We propose that our method can be used to analyze hadronic interactions in black hole accretion disks, jets, and coronae to study the neutrino abundance from active galactic nuclei.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A multiscale model of immune surveillance in micrometastases gives insights on cancer patient digital twins

Abstract Metastasis is the leading cause of death in patients with cancer, driving considerable scientific and clinical interest in immunosurveillance of micrometastases. We investigated this process by creating a multiscale mathematical model to study the interactions between the immune system and the progression of micrometastases in general epithelial tissue. We analyzed the parameter space of the model using high-throughput computing resources to generate over 100,000 virtual patient trajectories. We demonstrated that the model could recapitulate a wide variety of virtual patient trajectories, including uncontrolled growth, partial response, and complete immune response to tumor growth. We classified the virtual patients and identified key patient parameters with the greatest effect on the simulated immunosurveillance. We highlight the lessons derived from this analysis and their impact on the nascent field of cancer patient digital twins (CPDTs). While CPDTs could enable clinicians to systematically dissect the complexity of cancer in each individual patient and inform treatment choices, our work shows that key challenges remain before we can reach this vision. In particular, we show that there remain considerable uncertainties in immune responses, unreliable patient stratification, and unpredictable personalized treatment. Nonetheless, we also show that in spite of these challenges, patient-specific models suggest strategies to increase control of clinically undetectable micrometastases even without complete parameter certainty.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Realize Generalized Optimal Motion Primitives Using Physics Informed Neural Networks

Autonomous manipulation is a challenging problem in field robotics due to uncertainty in object properties, constraints, and coupling phenomenon with robot control systems. Humans learn motion primitives over time to effectively interact with the environment. We postulate that autonomous manipulation can be enabled by basic sets of motion primitives as well, but do not necessitate mimicking human motion primitives. Here, this work presents an approach to generalized optimal motion primitives using physics-informed neural networks. Our simulated and experimental results demonstrate that optimality is notionally maintained where the mean maximum observed final position percent error was 0.564% and the average mean error for all the trajectories was 1.53%. These results indicate that notional generalization is attained using a physics-informed neural network approach that enables near optimal real-time adaptation of primitive motion profiles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure–Activity Relationships in Ether-Functionalized Solid-State Metal–Organic Framework Electrolytes

The structure–property relationships of metal–organic framework (MOF)-based solid-state electrolytes are not well understood. Herein, a systematic investigation of 12 Zr(IV)-based UiO-66 MOFs with varying ether-chain functional groups was carried out to elucidate the critical microscopic interactions that facilitate improved solid-state electrolyte performance. Enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed and revealed a three-tier ion hopping mechanism: linker–linker hopping, linker-counterion hopping, and counterion-counterion hopping. Detailed structural analysis of the MD trajectories revealed that the chemistry and morphology of the linker groups affect the relative stability and population distribution of the electrolyte components, such that crown-ether-based linker groups enhance the probability of extended, low-barrier ion percolation pathways. As a result, we were able to tune the ionic conductivities by rationally manipulating the counterion distributions, linker binding strengths, and the configurational entropy (multivariability of the linkers). The resulting performance of these MOF-based solid-state electrolytes was significantly enhanced, with a methoxy-functionalized framework (UiO-66-L1 100 ) achieving high ionic conductivities of 2.32 × 10 –4 S/cm and 2.07 × 10 –3 S/cm at 30 °C and 90 °C, respectively, an order of magnitude greater than other all-solid-state MOF electrolyte systems. The electrolyte stability was evaluated with LiIn|LPSCl|MOF:LiTFSI|LPSCl|LiIn symmetric cells, showing excellent Li plating/stripping processes for over 2 months.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Particle trajectory representation learning with masked point modeling

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) offer millimeter-scale 3D images of particle trajectories, enabling precision studies of neutrino oscillation, detection of supernova and solar neutrinos, searches for exotic dark matter, and proton decay. Current approaches utilize supervised machine learning models, requiring extensive simulations of particle physics and detector response that can introduce bias. Self-supervised learning (SSL), a machine learning approach that learns useful representations of unlabeled data from the data itself, has significantly advanced how large datasets are utilized for representation learning; however, its potential for applications to sensory data in high precision particle physics experiments remains largely unexplored. We introduce the Point-based liquid argon masked autoencoder (PoLAr-MAE), a self-supervised framework that learns physically meaningful representations directly from unlabeled LArTPC images. PoLAr-MAE achieves remarkable data efficiency for a point-level segmentation task, outperforming fully supervised methods in low data regimes. Linear classifiers on model outputs demonstrate robust performance across multiple downstream tasks. Our results position sensor-level SSL as a practical foundation model strategy for LArTPCs.

Young, Samuel [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving the Solvation Structure and Transport Properties of Aqueous Zinc Electrolytes from Salt-in-Water to Water-in-Salt Using Neural Network Potential

Zn Cl 2 solutions are promising electrolytes for aqueous zinc-ion batteries. Here, we report a joint computational and experimental study of the structural and dynamic properties of aqueous Zn Cl 2 electrolytes with concentrations ranging from salt-in-water to water-in-salt (WIS). By developing a neural network potential (NNP) model, we perform molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with accuracy but at much larger lengths and longer timescales. The NNP predicted structures are validated by the structure factors measured by X-ray total scattering experiments. The MD trajectories provide a comprehensive and quantitative picture of the Zn 2 + solvation shell structures. Additionally, we find that the O − H covalent bonds in water are strengthened with increasing salt concentration, thus expanding the electrochemical stability window of aqueous electrolytes. In terms of dynamic properties, the calculated and experimentally measured conductivities are in good agreement. Through the analysis of the calculated cation transference number, we propose a three-stage charge carrier transport mechanism with increasing concentration: independent ion transport, strongly correlated ion transport, and small positive charge carrier diffusion through negatively charged polymeric clusters. Our study provides fundamental atomic scale insights into the structure and transport properties of the Zn Cl 2 electrolyte that can aid the optimization and development of WIS electrolytes. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized approach for rapid entropy calculation of liquids and solids

We build a comprehensive methodology for the fast computation of entropy across both solid and liquid phases. The proposed method utilizes a single trajectory of molecular dynamics (MD) to facilitate the calculation of entropy, which is composed of three components. The electronic entropy is determined through the temporal average acquired from density functional theory MD simulations. The vibrational entropy, typically the predominant contributor to the total entropy, even within the liquid state, is evaluated by computing the phonon density of states via the velocity autocorrelation function. The most arduous component to quantify, the configurational entropy, is assessed by probability analysis of the local structural arrangement and atomic distribution. We illustrate, through a variety of examples, that this method is both a versatile and valid technique for characterizing the thermodynamic states of both solids and liquids. Furthermore, this method is employed to expedite the calculation of melting temperatures, demonstrating its practical utility in computational thermodynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Datasets for Custom-trained Machine-learning Interatomic Potentials: Nitric Acid Aqueous Solution

This dataset was generated using an iterative active learning strategy with the ArcaNN software package (https://github.com/arcann-chem/arcann_training) to train machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for aqueous nitric acid. Each active-learning cycle consisted of three stages: (1) training, (2) exploration, and (3) labeling. The initial training set comprised approximately 800 randomly selected configurations from a previous study by Lewis et al. (https://doi.org/10.1021/jp205510q), which investigated nitric acid solutions at 2, 3, 4, and 5 mol/L. For all configurations, single-point calculations of atomic forces and total energies were performed at the quantum density functional theory BLYP-D2 and PBE-D3 levels of theory using the CP2K Quickstep module. Valence electrons were treated explicitly, while core electrons on all atoms were represented by norm-conserving Goedecker–Teter–Hutter (GTH) pseudopotentials. Long-range dispersion interactions were accounted for using Grimme dispersion corrections. Wave functions were expanded in a mixed Gaussian-and-plane-wave scheme using TZV2P-MOLOPT basis sets for all elements and an 800 Ry auxiliary plane-wave cutoff for the electron density. Self-consistent field convergence was accelerated using orbital transformation and Direct Inversion in the Iterative Subspace, with a convergence threshold of 10^{-6}. All single-point calculations were carried out in periodic orthorhombic cells whose dimensions match those of the molecular configurations sampled from earlier trajectories. The CELL_REF keyword in CP2K was used to define a fixed reference cell, ensuring consistency in the reference data used for MLIP training, particularly when cell fluctuations are present in NpT simulations. The resulting high-fidelity energies and forces constitute the ground-truth labels used to train the MLIPs contained in this dataset.

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Real2Sim Digital Twin Pipeline for Photorealistic Robot Simulation: Evaluating VLA Policy Deployment on a Bimanual Mobile Robot

Digital twins that are automatically constructed from robot sensor data offer a promising pathway for scalable Real2Sim and Sim2Real transfer. However, it remains an open question whether photorealistic reconstruction alone is sufficient to support reliable deployment of vision-language-action (VLA) policies. We present a generative-AI-assisted Real2Sim pipeline that generates simulation-ready digital twins from real-world RGB observations with minimal manual intervention. The pipeline uses prompted segmentation to isolate scene components and a generative 3D model to directly produce simulation assets, eliminating the need for traditional multi-view reconstruction or manual 3D modeling.\r\nTo evaluate simulation fidelity, we deploy and compare policies from two VLA models in both the real robot and the reconstructed\r\nsimulation under identical tasks and initial conditions. We compare joint-level action trajectories and analyze how divergence evolves over time in closed-loop execution. Although the reconstructed environments are visually accurate, we observe increasing trajectory divergence during closedloop operation. These results indicate that photorealistic reconstruction alone is insufficient to preserve closed-loop control behavior\r\nin VLA policies, particularly in contact-rich manipulation settings where small perceptual errors compound over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗