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At least 1,441 records · Page 80

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

sea ice↗

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗

Evaluation of Methods for Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Ionic Liquid Electric Double Layers

We investigate how systematically increasing the accuracy of various molecular dynamics modeling techniques influences the structure and capacitance of ionic liquid electric double layers (EDLs). The techniques probed concern long-range electrostatic interactions, electrode charging (constant charge versus constant potential conditions), and electrolyte polarizability. Our simulations are performed on a quasi-two-dimensional, or slab-like, model capacitor, which is composed of a polarizable ionic liquid electrolyte, [EMIM][BF4], interfaced between two graphite electrodes. To ensure an accurate representation of EDL differential capacitance, we derive new fluctuation formulas that resolve the differential capacitance as a function of electrode charge or electrode potential. The magnitude of differential capacitance shows sensitivity to different long-range electrostatic summation techniques, while the shape of differential capacitance is affected by charging technique and the polarizability of the electrolyte. For long-range summation techniques, errors in magnitude can be mitigated by employing two-dimensional or corrected three dimensional electrostatic summations, which lead to electric fields that conform to those of a classical electrostatic parallel plate capacitor. With respect to charging, the changes in shape are a result of ions in the Stern layer (i.e. ions at the electrode surface) having a higher electrostatic affinity to constant potential electrodes than to constant charge electrodes. For electrolyte polarizability, shape changes originate from induced dipoles that soften the interaction of Stern layer ions with the electrode. The softening is traced to ion correlations vertical to the electrode surface that induce dipoles that oppose double layer formation. In general, our analysis indicates an accuracy dependent differential capacitance profile that transitions from the characteristic camel shape with coarser representations to a more diffuse profile with finer representations.

Haskins, Justin B.↗

Chapter 6: Evaluation of Cardiothermal Model Prediction of Simulated Lunar Extravehicular Activity

Fewer than 20 extravehicular activities were completed during the Apollo program. The lunar environment has consistent unknowns to address particularly that of suited performance in partial gravity. The moon has altered gravity that is 1/6th that of Earth’s. This study is focused to investigate validation of the regression techniques identified in subsequent chapters and look to improve predictive outcomes during simulated lunar EVA tasks. Heart rate predictions of metabolic energy expenditure are investigated to predict workload throughout simulated lunar EVA conducted in the active response gravity offload system (ARGOS) with in the NASA Mark III space suit. Heart rate variability metrics are utilized to identify periods of high workload. Continually, the lunar offload capacity is further characterized to aid in improving the cardiothermal prediction models including predictions of core temperature, skin temperature and heat storage using heart rate, metabolic rates and suit thermal data during the simulated EVA. The outcome of this model provides an application for future use in contingency predictions of energy expenditure during Lunar EVAs and provide a suite of instrumentation to predict workload during training scenarios.

Simulated EVA↗

Development of Weighout Process and Evaluations for Underwater Partial Gravity EVA Simulations

For the upcoming Artemis lunar missions, astronauts will needto train in a spacesuit where partial gravity can be simulated such as NASA Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). At the NBL, dive weights and foam can be added around the spacesuit to attaina satisfactory center of buoyancy (CB) and center of gravity (CG) location to simulate the lunar gravity (1/6thG) effects. If CG and CB are not co-located properly, incorrect righting moments can be introduced, and both simulation quality and EVA task performance can be impaired. Based on the findings from the initial testingusing xEMU spacesuits, it was observed that the weigh-out method (i.e., determination of the weights and foam quantities and position) needed further development to improve the simulation quality, especially for the subjects who experienced excessive instability. This paper aims to present the on-going effort to improve the weigh-out process for enabling NBL lunar EVA simulations. For this effort, a human-suit model was created to use suit CAD and 3D human body scansto estimate both CB and CG location for each suited subject. NBL weigh-out testing was performed to characterize the effects of CG and CB positioning, in which the 3D human-suit model was used to determine optimal weigh-out combinations of weights and foam. Postural, balance, and subjective feedback were gathered for each weigh-out configuration. The results indicated that, as the CB was shifted higher and the CB and CG located closer to each other, the subject tended to be more stable and their EVA performance improved. A high CB location was then prioritized across 4 additional subjects in both small and large size spacesuits. When compared to the initial xEMU test series, improved performance was observed across all subjects as the CB moved higher and aligned closer to the system CG.

Seyed Pouyan Sabahi↗

Evaluating Safeguards Statistical Assumptions via Stochastic Simulation

Herein, the authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 SQ, using typical IAEA inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Evaluation of Optimal Net Load Management in Microgrids Using Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This presentation discusses the performance evaluation of a net load management (NLM) engine that balances load and generation in an isolated community to power a critical facility after a grid interruption event (e.g., the loss of a large generation unit). This NLM engine is particularly important for microgrid systems because it provides a high-speed, cost-optimal control solution to coordinate grid-forming inverters and to dispatch grid-following inverters and deferrable loads in microgrid systems to enhance grid resilience and reliability. The NLM algorithm cost-optimally dispatches the grid-following inverters and deferrable loads based on the demanded power and load priorities, and the grid-forming inverters use droop control to form system voltages and share active and reactive power. A controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform is developed to evaluate the control performance of the NLM algorithm with two sequential contingency events of lost generation units. The experimental results indicate that the NLM engine can maintain system stability, achieve the targeted system voltage and frequency, and balance load and generation to serve the critical facility with improved system resilience and reliability.

droop control↗

A flight evaluation of VTOL jet transport under visual and simulated instrument conditions

A flight investigation was performed with the Dornier DO-31 VTOL to evaluate the performance, handling qualities, and operating characteristics that are considered to be important in the operation of a commerical VTOL transport in the terminal area. The DO-31, a 20,000 kilogram transport, has a mixed jet propulsion system; main engines with nozzles deflect from a cruise to a hover position, and vertical lift engines operated below 170 knots. This VTOL mode incorporates pitch and roll attitude and yaw rate stabilization. The tests concentrated on the transition, approach, and vertical landing. The mixed jet propulsion system provided a large usable performance envelope that enabled simulated IFR approaches to be made on 7 deg and 12 deg glide slopes. In these approaches management of thrust magnitude and direction was a primary problem, and some form of integrating the controls will be necessary. The handling qualities evaluation pointed out the need for additional research of define flight path criteria. The aircraft had satisfactory control and stability in hover out of ground effect. The recirculation effects in vertical landing were large below 15 meters.

Holzhauser, C. A.↗

ECAR-7932 Rev 0 Large Eddy Simulation of MARVEL Reactor Core Subchannel to Evaluate Model Uncertainty of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equation Based Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis

In the previous work (ECAR-7210), the peak cladding temperature of the MARVEL microreactor has been evaluated by steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Although numerical uncertainties of RANS-based CFD simulations has been assessed in ECAR-7210, the model uncertainty of RANS turbulence models must be investigated to resolve the issues related to inaccurate prediction of turbulent heat flux and flow pulsation in a tight lattice rod bundle using the steady-state RANS simulations. Consequently, this ECAR conducted a high-fidelity CFD analysis utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to generate reference data and investigated the model uncertainty of RANS-based CFD simulations.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in the Global Modeling Initiative 3D Model Simulations of Ozone Recovery

The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

Strahan, Susan E.↗

International Collaboration Activities on Disposal in Argillite R&D: DECOVALEX19 Task C – Geochemical and Reactive Transport Modeling

International collaborations on nuclear waste disposal R&D are an integral part of the Spent Fuel Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign within the DOE Fuel Cycle and Technology (FCT) program. These partnerships with international repository R&D programs provide key opportunities to participate in experiments developing laboratory/field data (underground research laboratories (URL)) of engineered barrier system (EBS) interactions (e.g., near-field) and characterization of transport phenomena in the host rock (e.g., far-field). The results of these experiments are used in the evaluation of coupled processes and their representation via state-of-the-art simulation approaches to evaluate repository performance. During the thermal heating period, increases in temperature from radionuclide decay in the spent fuel (SF) waste canisters will increase temperature in the surrounding EBS driving chemical and transport processes in the near- and far-field domains of the repository. URL heater-tests for extended periods of times (e.g., years) provide key information and data on thermal effects affecting engineered barriers in response to temperature and water saturation levels. Groundwater interactions with cementitious barriers are also important to in-drift chemistry and EBS performance during post-closure. Descriptions of the various URL experiments for various disposal design concepts according to the host country repository program and relevance to the US program is given elsewhere (Birkholzer et al.,2017;Jové Col& et al., 2016). The DECOVALEX-2019 Task C involves collaboration with the GREET (Groundwater REcovery Experiment in Tunnel) at the Mizunami URL, Japan ,which targets the development of monitoring methodologies of groundwater in granitic rock with applications to THMC simulations (Iwatsuki et al., 2005;Iwatsuki et al.,2015,2017). Some of the goals of GREET is to conduct a facility-scale geochemical characterization study of short- and long-term effects of tunnel excavation activities, impacts on groundwater flow and transport, and influences on groundwater chemistry (Iwatsuki et al.,2015). The data obtained from these URL activities is then used in the development and evaluation of THC models to support post-closure safety and performance assessments of the repository environment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Wind tunnel evaluation of air-foil performance using simulated ice shapes

A two-phase wind tunnel test was conducted in the 6 by 9 foot Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Lewis Research Center to evaluate the effect of ice on the performance of a full scale general aviation wing. In the first IRT tests, rime and glaze shapes were carefully documented as functions of angle of attack and free stream conditions. Next, simulated ice shapes were constructed for two rime and two glaze shapes and used in the second IRT tunnel entry. The ice shapes and the clean airfoil were tapped to obtain surface pressures and a probe used to measure the wake characteristics. These data were recorded and processed, on-line, with a minicomputer/digital data acquisition system. The effect of both rime and glaze ice on the pressure distribution, Cl, Cd, and Cm are presented.

Bragg, M. B.↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Collision‐Coalescence Process in Idealized Cloud Convection Using Large‐Eddy Simulations With Lagrangian Microphysics

Drizzle initiation through the collision and coalescence of cloud droplets plays a crucial role in warm cloud precipitation. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the influence of collisional growth on the droplet size distribution can be quantified by a non-dimensional drizzle number (Dz). Here, large-eddy simulations with Lagrangian microphysics are employed to evaluate the theory by simulating a tall convection-cloud chamber under various conditions. Results show that the smaller the Dz, the larger the impact of collisions on the right tail of the droplet size distribution, consistent with the theory. The simulations confirm that the collision rate can be estimated from the droplet size distribution interacting only with cloud droplets of the same size at the mode radius. This suggests that the idealized theory can be a useful tool to design a cloud chamber for drizzle investigation, as well as to represent drizzle formation in models of real atmospheric clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗