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At least 1,459 records · Page 81

Passive Safety System Reliability Analysis: Methodology, Application, and Results

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to provide assurance that certain safety functions, such as reactivity control and reactor heat removal, are maintained during transient scenarios. The performance of these systems is sensitive to boundary and environmental conditions and can lead to functional failure, which is the inability of the system to perform as intended even without any physical failures. Additionally, conditions can cause the passive systems to operate in an intermediate or degraded state. These operational modes of passive systems and their overall reliability can be difficult to capture in traditional probabilistic frameworks where discrete operating modes are assumed or time-dependent boundary conditions are not accounted for. Novel strategies and methods are needed to be able to capture the reliability of these passive systems and their impact on facility safety. The current abstract provides a summary of such a methodology and examples of its use in a case study, the GE Hitachi (GEH) PRISM probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) PSA.

Bucknor, M.↗

PowerSystems.jl and PowerSimulations.jl [SWR-18-23]

Data structures in Julia to enable power systems analysis. Also, PowerSimulations.jl is a Julia package for power system modeling and simulation found at https://github.com/NREL/PowerSimulations.jl. The objectives of the package are: Provide a flexible modeling framework that can accommodate problems of different complexity and at different time-scales. Streamline the construction of large scale optimization problems to avoid repetition of work when adding/modifying model details. Exploit Julia's capabilities to improve computational performance of large scale power system simulations. The flexible modeling framework is enabled through a modular set of capabilities that enable scalable power system analysis and exploration of new analysis methods. The modularity of PowerSimulations results from the structure of the simulations enabled by the package: Simulations define a set of problems that can be solved using numerical techniques. Problems are generated by expressing model formulations against system data For example, an annual production cost modeling simulation can be created by formulating a unit commitment model against system data to assemble a set of 365 daily time-coupled scheduling problems.

Lara, Jose Daniel↗

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An expert system approach to astronomical data analysis

Expert systems technology has much to offer to the problem of astronomical data analysis, where large data volumes and sophisticated analysis goals have caused a variety of interesting problems to arise. The construction of a prototype expert system whose target domain is CCD image calibration, is reported. The prototype is designed to be extensible to different and more complex problems in a straighforward way, and to be largely independent of the details of the specific data analysis system which executes the plan it generates.

Johnston, Mark D.↗

Technical Evaluation Report for the NDMAS AGR-5/6/7 TRISO Irradiation Monitoring System

The Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) manages irradiation experiment data collected under the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program within the Advanced Reactor Technologies Technology Development Office. The AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment combines the fifth, sixth, and seventh planned irradiation campaigns of the U.S. Department of Energy AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program. These combined irradiation tests will consist of fuel qualification tests (AGR-5/6) and a margin test (AGR-7) for the industrially produced uranium oxycarbide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel developed by the AGR program. The objective of the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment is to establish the performance of UCO TRISO fuel fabricated using engineering-scale equipment in a production environment under and beyond normal operating conditions (PNL-5245). Experimental irradiation measurements for this experiment (i.e., thermocouple temperature, gas flow rate, fission product release rate, gross gamma count, and Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) operational parameters) are captured automatically to the NDMAS database. Data derived from numerical simulation or other mathematical analyses (i.e., fast fluence, burnup, temperature, and fission product release to birth ratio) are captured to the database when provided by the researchers. The NDMAS database is a relational database accessed via structured query language and managed with Microsoft SQL Server. While select users can directly access the database, that is not the most convenient way to interact with the data. The NDMAS team constructs numerous tables that combine related datasets, and delivers those data to researchers via graphs and spreadsheets on a Microsoft SharePoint-based website. For the AGR-5/6/7 experimental data, a new subsite has been developed, along with a set of web pages. These pages will be used by members of fuel irradiation team for monitoring irradiation conditions according to specification (SPC-1749), by the physics modelers to access necessary model inputs, and by the nuclear engineering community to view and access data such as fuel temperatures, fission product release from capsules, and ATR operational parameters. The deliverable represented in this document is a SharePoint website containing tables of the AGR-5/6/7 measured and calculated data, graphs displaying the data, and links to source documents and references.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

MELCOR-TMAP: The integration of MELCOR for fusion and TMAP4 for fusion reactor systems safety analysis and tritium inventory tracking

The design of fusion reactors requires the prediction of radioactive tritium migration during normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Safety standards such as those from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require that fusion reactor designs limit the release of hazardous material to the environment. In addition to safety requirements, the rarity of tritium supplies for burning D-T fusion plasma requires tritium breeding blankets. Computational modeling of migration of tritium and various reaction products throughout the fusion reactor serves to create designs that fulfill these requirements. MELCOR-TMAP, owned and developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is an integrated system-level engineering code adapted for the analysis of fusion reactor systems. The history of the conception and evolution of the MELCOR-TMAP code, as well as its current capabilities, recent updates including a corrected composite material wall nodalization scheme, and plans for future development, are discussed here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development progress of the Materials Analysis and Particle Probe

The Materials Analysis and Particle Probe (MAPP) is a compact in vacuo surface science diagnostic, designed to provide in situ surface characterization of plasma facing components in a tokamak environment. MAPP has been implemented for operation on the Lithium Tokamak Experiment at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), where all control and analysis systems are currently under development for full remote operation. Control systems include vacuum management, instrument power, and translational/rotational probe drive. Analysis systems include onboard Langmuir probes and all components required for x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, low-energy ion scattering spectroscopy, direct recoil spectroscopy, and thermal desorption spectroscopy surface analysis techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cost of Capturing CO 2 from Industrial Sources

This systems analysis by the National Energy Technology Laboratory's Strategic Systems Analysis and Engineering directorate) evaluates the cost and performance impacts of capturing CO 2 emissions from nine industrial sources (ammonia, ethylene oxide, and ethanol production, natural gas process, coal- and gas-to-liquids, refinery hydrogen production, iron and steel, and cement manufacturing). The industrial sectors examined are segregated according to the CO 2 purity level of the flue gas stream, prior to treatment. Certain sectors naturally produce a gas stream that is inherently high in CO 2 purity, and these sectors can achieve 99-100% removal. Other sectors produce a lower purity CO 2 flue gas stream and achieving 90-99% removal requires deeper levels of treatment, adding cost. In addition to the report that documents the analysis, a Carbon Capture Retrofit Database tool was also created that allows users to apply CO 2 capture to selected industries, to evaluate the cost of capture and compare across multiple plants, as well as across different industries. Users have the ability to change select input parameters (such as fuel price, capture rate, and financing assumptions) to evaluate the impact on industrial CO 2 capture economics.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Shuttle/TDRSS communications system performance analysis

The results of the performance analysis performed on the Shuttle/Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) communications system are presented. The existing Shuttle/TDRSS link simulation program were modified and refined to model the post-radio frequency interference TDRS hardware and to evaluate the performance degradation due to RFI effects. The refined link models were then used to determine, evaluate and assess expected S-band and Ku-band link performance. Parameterization results are presented for the ground station carrier and timing recovery circuits

Braun, W. R.↗

Advanced Engine Cycles Analyzed for Turbofans With Variable-Area Fan Nozzles Actuated by a Shape Memory Alloy

Advanced, large commercial turbofan engines using low-fan-pressure-ratio, very high bypass ratio thermodynamic cycles can offer significant fuel savings over engines currently in operation. Several technological challenges must be addressed, however, before these engines can be designed. To name a few, the high-diameter fans associated with these engines pose a significant packaging and aircraft installation challenge, and a large, heavy gearbox is often necessary to address the differences in ideal operating speeds between the fan and the low-pressure turbine. Also, the large nacelles contribute aerodynamic drag penalties and require long, heavy landing gear when mounted on conventional, low wing aircraft. Nevertheless, the reduced fuel consumption rates of these engines are a compelling economic incentive, and fans designed with low pressure ratios and low tip speeds offer attractive noise-reduction benefits. Another complication associated with low-pressure-ratio fans is their need for variable flow-path geometry. As the design fan pressure ratio is reduced below about 1.4, an operational disparity is set up in the fan between high and low flight speeds. In other words, between takeoff and cruise there is too large a swing in several key fan parameters-- such as speed, flow, and pressure--for a fan to accommodate. One solution to this problem is to make use of a variable-area fan nozzle (VAFN). However, conventional, hydraulically actuated variable nozzles have weight, cost, maintenance, and reliability issues that discourage their use with low-fan-pressure-ratio engine cycles. United Technologies Research, in cooperation with NASA, is developing a revolutionary, lightweight, and reliable shape memory alloy actuator system that can change the on-demand nozzle exit area by up to 20 percent. This "smart material" actuation technology, being studied under NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Program and Revolutionary Concepts in Aeronautics (RevCon) Program, has the potential to enable the next generation of efficient, quiet, very high bypass ratio turbofans. NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Analysis Office, along with NASA Langley Research Center's Systems Analysis Branch, conducted an independent analytical assessment of this new technology to provide strategic guidance to UEET and RevCon. A 2010-technology-level high-spool engine core was designed for this evaluation. Two families of low-spool components, one with and one without VAFN's, were designed to operate with the core. This "constant core" approach was used to hold most design parameters constant so that any performance differences between the VAFN and fixed nozzle cycles could be attributed to the VAFN technology alone. In this manner, the cycle design regimes that offer a performance payoff when VAFN's are used could be identified. The NASA analytical model of a performance-optimized VAFN turbofan with a fan pressure ratio of 1.28 is shown. Mission analyses of the engines were conducted using the notional, long-haul, advanced commercial twinjet shown. A high wing design was used to accommodate the large high-bypassratio engines. The mission fuel reduction benefit of very high bypass shape-memory-alloy VAFN aircraft was calculated to be 8.3 percent lower than a moderate bypass cycle using a conventional fixed nozzle. Shape-memory-alloy VAFN technology is currently under development in NASA's UEET and RevCon Programs.

Berton, Jeffrey J.↗

The GEOS Retrospective Data Assimilation System: The 6-hour lag case

The fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) has been proposed as a framework to construct data assimilation procedures capable of producing high-quality climate research datasets. Fixed-lag Kalman smoother-based systems, referred to as retrospective data assimilation systems, are an extension to three-dimensional filtering procedures with the added capability of incorporating observations not only in the past and present time of the estimate, but also at future times. A variety of simplifications are necessary to render retrospective assimilation procedures practical. In this article, we present an FLKS-based retrospective data assimilation system implementation for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GOES) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The practicality of this implementation comes from the practicality of its underlying (filter) analysis system, i.e., the physical-space statistical analysis system (PSAS). The behavior of two schemes is studied here. The first retrospective analysis (RA) scheme is designed simply to update the regular PSAS analyses with observations available at times ahead of the regular analysis times. Although our GEOS DAS implementation is general, results are only presented for when observations 6-hours ahead of the analysis time are used to update the PSAS analyses and thereby to calculate the so-called lag-1 retrospective analyses. Consistency tests for this RA scheme show that the lag-1 retrospective analyses indeed have better 6-hour predictive skills than the predictions from the regular analyses. This motivates the introduction of the second retrospective analysis scheme which, at each analysis time, uses the 6-hour retrospective analysis to replace the first-guess normally used in the PSAS analysis, and therefore allows the calculation of a revised (filter) PSAS analysis. Since in this scheme the lag-1 retrospective analyses influence the filter results, this procedure is referred to as the retrospective-based iterative analysis (RIA) scheme. Results from the RIA scheme indicate its potential for improving the overall quality of the assimilation.

Zhu, Yan-Qiu↗

Linear digital imaging system fidelity analysis

The combined effects of imaging gathering, sampling and reconstruction are analyzed in terms of image fidelity. The analysis is based upon a standard end-to-end linear system model which is sufficiently general so that the results apply to most line-scan and sensor-array imaging systems. Shift-variant sampling effects are accounted for with an expected value analysis based upon the use of a fixed deterministic input scene which is randomly shifted (mathematically) relative to the sampling grid. This random sample-scene phase approach has been used successfully by the author and associates in several previous related papers.

Park, Stephen K.↗

The power reliability event simulator tool (PRESTO): A novel approach to distribution system reliability analysis and applications

The growing interest in onsite solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems is partially motivated by customer concerns regarding grid reliability. However, accurately assessing the effectiveness of PVESS in mitigating these interruptions requires a comprehensive understanding of location-specific outage patterns and the ability to simulate realistic scenarios. To address the gap, we introduce the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), the first publicly available tool that simulates location-specific power interruptions at the county level. PRESTO allows for a more realistic assessment of system reliability by considering the unpredictability and location-specific patterns of power interruptions. We applied PRESTO in a case study of a single-family home across three U.S. counties, examining the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with 10kWh of battery storage during short-duration power interruptions. Our findings show that this system reliably met 93% of energy demand for essential non-heating and cooling loads, fully serving these loads in 84% of events, despite the constraints of daily time-of-use bill management which limits the battery's state-of-charge reserve. However, when heating and cooling loads were included, system performance decreased significantly, with only 70% of demand met and full service in 43% of events. These results highlight the challenges of using solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems for short-duration outages, emphasizing the need to consider factors like battery size and grid charging strategies to improve reliability. Our study demonstrates the practical applications of PRESTO, providing valuable insights into potential mitigation strategies including grid charging and optimizing battery size.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Systems cost/performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 3: Programmer's manual and user's guide

The systems cost/performance model was implemented as a digital computer program to perform initial program planning, cost/performance tradeoffs, and sensitivity analyses. The computer is described along with the operating environment in which the program was written and checked, the program specifications such as discussions of logic and computational flow, the different subsystem models involved in the design of the spacecraft, and routines involved in the nondesign area such as costing and scheduling of the design. Preliminary results for the DSCS-II design are also included.

Janz, R. F.↗

Radar altimetry systems cost analysis

This report discusses the application and cost of two types of altimeter systems (spaceborne (satellite and shuttle) and airborne) to twelve user requirements. The overall design of the systems defined to meet these requirements is predicated on an unconstrained altimetry technology; that is, any level of altimeter or supporting equipment performance is possible.

Escoe, D.↗

Application of mathematical optimization procedures to a structural model of a large finite-element wing

An optimization system is described that consists of the finite-element analysis program known as Engineering Analysis Language (EAL), the CONMIN optimization program, and a piecewise linear analysis. The optimization analysis system (OPTEAL) is used to minimize the mass of a transport wing subject to stress constraints for two static load conditions. The optimization procedure and the optimization analysis system (OPTEAL) are described and the optiomized results with fully stressed design results compared.

Walsh, J. L.↗

Aerocapture Guidance and Performance at Mars for High-Mass Systems

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing System Analysis (EDL-SA) project has been tasked with performing systems analysis to identify the optimal technologies required to land a 20-50 MT Exploration-class mission on Mars. It has been shown that it is not possible to safely land these large systems using heritage Mars EDL systems, or analogous Earth or Moon EDL systems. In 2007, NASA conducted a Mars Exploration Architecture Study which included an in depth review of the science motivations and engineering technology requirements for a human Mars mission campaign. This study resulted in an update to the Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA 5.0). Among the primary findings and recommendations was the conclusion that landing of large payloads (greater than 1 MT) on the surface of Mars remains a key architectural challenge. Additionally, research and system studies of fundamental EDL technologies were highly recommended. The EDL-SA project identified the candidate technologies and assembled them into full capture and EDL sequences so that simulations could be developed to evaluate them. The chosen architectures combine the various technologies of interest in eight different ways. For aerocapture, only two scenarios were considered. The first is a rigid mid-L/D aeroshell (AS), which is represented in architectures 1, 4, 5, and 7. This scenario calls for a vehicle that flies at a 55-degree angle of attack, resulting in ballistic coefficient and L/D values of 490 kg/m 2 and 0.43, respectively. The second is a lifting hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (HIAD), which is represented in architectures 2, 6, and 8. This scenario requires the vehicle to fly at a 22.2- degree angle of attack, which correlates to an L/D of 0.3 and was sized to provide a ballistic coefficient of 165 kg/m 2 . Architecture 3 is an all-propulsive sequence, and is not considered in this study.

Zumwalt, Carlie H.↗