Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Capacity estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,477 records · Page 82

Modeling the Capacity and Emissions Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. Part 1. Methodology and Preliminary Results

Policies aimed at energy conservation and efficiency have broad environmental and economic impacts. Even if these impacts are relatively small, they may be significant compared to the cost of implementing the policy. Methodologies that quantify the marginal impacts of reduced demand for energy have an important role to play in developing accurate measures of both the benefits and costs of a given policy choice. This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of reduced demand for electricity on the electric power sector as a whole. The approach uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a mid-range energy forecast model developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)(DOE EIA 2013). The report is organized as follows: In the rest of this section the traditional NEMS-BT approach is reviewed and an outline of the new reduced form NEMS methodology is presented. Section 2 provides an overview of how the NEMS model works, and describes the set of NEMS-BT runs that are used as input to the reduced form approach. Section 3 presents our NEMS-BT simulation results and post-processing methods. In Section 4 we show how the NEMS-BT output can be generalized to apply to a broader set of end-uses. In Section 5 we disuss the application of this approach to policy analysis, and summarize some of the issues that will be further investigated in Part 2 of this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Method for Estimating Thread Strength Reduction of Damaged Parent Holes with Inserts

During normal assembly and disassembly of bolted-joint components, thread damage and/or deformation may occur. If threads are overloaded, thread damage/deformation can also be anticipated. Typical inspection techniques (e.g. using GO-NO GO gages) may not provide adequate visibility of the extent of thread damage. More detailed inspection techniques have provided actual pitch-diameter profiles of damaged-hardware holes. A method to predict the reduction in thread shear-out capacity of damaged threaded holes has been developed. This method was based on testing and analytical modeling. Test samples were machined to simulate damaged holes in the hardware of interest. Test samples containing pristine parent-holes were also manufactured from the same bar-stock material to provide baseline results for comparison purposes. After the particular parent-hole thread profile was machined into each sample a helical insert was installed into the threaded hole. These samples were tested in a specially designed fixture to determine the maximum load required to shear out the parent threads. It was determined from the pristine-hole samples that, for the specific material tested, each individual thread could resist an average load of 3980 pounds. The shear-out loads of the holes having modified pitch diameters were compared to the ultimate loads of the specimens with pristine holes. An equivalent number of missing helical coil threads was then determined based on the ratio of shear-out loads for each thread configuration. These data were compared with the results from a finite element model (FEM). The model gave insights into the ability of the thread loads to redistribute for both pristine and simulated damage configurations. In this case, it was determined that the overall potential reduction in thread load-carrying capability in the hardware of interest was equal to having up to three fewer threads in the hole that bolt threads could engage. One- half of this potential reduction was due to local pitch-diameter variations and the other half was due to overall pitch-diameter enlargement beyond Class 2 fit. This result was important in that the thread shear capacity for this particular hardware design was the limiting structural capability. The details of the method development, including the supporting testing, data reduction and analytical model results comparison will be discussed hereafter.

Johnson, David L.↗

Assessing the impact of demand response on peak demand in a developing country: The case of Ghana

Peak demand on electricity grids is a growing problem that increases costs and risks to supply security. Residential sector loads often contribute significantly to seasonal and daily peak demand. Demand response refers to consumer actions that change the utility load profile in a way that reduces costs or improves grid security by applying price signals and automated load shedding technologies. The methodologies that are used to achieve demand response can hardly be applicable in developing countries. Peak pricing of electricity, for instance, can hardly be implemented in many developing countries as high prices would disproportionately affect the many low-income households who do not have the capacity to take action to avoid paying high peak prices. This study aims to develop demand response methodology that can be applied in developing countries to achieve residential peak demand reduction. We use a consumer preference survey to develop a methodology suitable for developing countries. The method of diversified demand is used with energy audit and monitored data to estimate the potential peak load reduction and its cost-effectiveness for Ghana. Results show that peak reduction of 15-210 MW is expected by 2040 with a positive return on investment of 2-22% for all designed scenarios.

Diawuo, FA↗

Prediction of functional aerobic capacity without exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to develop functional aerobic capacity prediction models without using exercise tests (N-Ex) and to compare the accuracy with Astrand single-stage submaximal prediction methods. The data of 2,009 subjects (9.7% female) were randomly divided into validation (N = 1,543) and cross-validation (N = 466) samples. The validation sample was used to develop two N-Ex models to estimate VO2peak. Gender, age, body composition, and self-report activity were used to develop two N-Ex prediction models. One model estimated percent fat from skinfolds (N-Ex %fat) and the other used body mass index (N-Ex BMI) to represent body composition. The multiple correlations for the developed models were R = 0.81 (SE = 5.3 ml.kg-1.min-1) and R = 0.78 (SE = 5.6 ml.kg-1.min-1). This accuracy was confirmed when applied to the cross-validation sample. The N-Ex models were more accurate than what was obtained from VO2peak estimated from the Astrand prediction models. The SEs of the Astrand models ranged from 5.5-9.7 ml.kg-1.min-1. The N-Ex models were cross-validated on 59 men on hypertensive medication and 71 men who were found to have a positive exercise ECG. The SEs of the N-Ex models ranged from 4.6-5.4 ml.kg-1.min-1 with these subjects.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Oxygen Consumption↗

Evaluation of Maximal Oxygen Uptake and Submaximal Estimates of VO2max Before, During, and After Long Duration International Space Station Missions

Evaluation of Maximal Oxygen Uptake and Submaximal Estimates of VO2max Before, During, and After Long Duration International Space Station Missions (VO2max) will document changes in maximum oxygen uptake for crewmembers onboard the International Space Station (ISS) on long-duration missions, greater than 90 days. This investigation will establish the characteristics of VO2max during flight and assess the validity of the current methods of tracking aerobic capacity change during and following the ISS missions.

Source record↗

Technical Challenges and Lessons from the Migration of the GLOBE Data and Information System to Utilize Cloud Computing Service

The Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Data and Information System supports an international science and education program with capabilities to accept local environment observations, archive, display and visualize them along with global satellite observations. Since its inception twenty years ago, the Web and database system has been upgraded periodically to accommodate the changes in technology and the steady growth of GLOBEs education community and collection of observations. Recently, near the end-of-life of the system hardware, new commercial computer platform options were explored and a decision made to utilize Cloud services. Now the GLOBE DIS has been fully deployed and maintained using Amazon Cloud services for over two years now. This paper reviews the early risks, actual challenges, and some unexpected findings as a result of the GLOBE DIS migration. We describe the plans, cost drivers and estimates, highlight adjustments that were made and suggest improvements. We present the trade studies for provisioning, for load balancing, networks, processing, storage, as well as production, staging and backup systems. We outline the migration teams skills and required level of effort for transition, and resulting changes in the overall maintenance and operations activities. Examples include incremental adjustments to processing capacity and frequency of backups, and efforts previously expended on hardware maintenance that were refocused onto application-specific enhancements.

GLOBE↗

Technical Challenges and Lessons from the Migration of the GLOBE Data and Information System to Utilize Cloud Computing Service

The Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Data and Information System supports an international science and education program with capabilities to accept local environment observations, archive, display and visualize them along with global satellite observations. Since its inception twenty years ago, the Web and database system has been upgraded periodically to accommodate the changes in technology and the steady growth of GLOBEs education community and collection of observations. Recently, near the end-of-life of the system hardware, new commercial computer platform options were explored and a decision made to utilize Cloud services. Now the GLOBE DIS has been fully deployed and maintained using Amazon Cloud services for over two years now. This paper reviews the early risks, actual challenges, and some unexpected findings as a result of the GLOBE DIS migration. We describe the plans, cost drivers and estimates, highlight adjustments that were made and suggest improvements. We present the trade studies for provisioning, for load balancing, networks, processing, storage, as well as production, staging and backup systems. We outline the migration teams skills and required level of effort for transition, and resulting changes in the overall maintenance and operations activities. Examples include incremental adjustments to processing capacity and frequency of backups, and efforts previously expended on hardware maintenance that were refocused onto application-specific enhancements.

GLOBE Data↗

A Component-Level Model of Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B)

Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is being employed in numerous peer-to-peer initiatives attempting to expand the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS) or enable mixed operations of manned and unmanned vehicles. Safety assessments of these initiatives rely, in part, on modeling the accuracy of ADS-B in reporting the position and direction of an ownship and surrounding traffic. Frequently, these initiatives utilize a position uncertainty model that applies a reported ADS-B estimation position uncertainty (EPU) value to a Rayleigh distribution and uses a Gauss-Markov random walk to add error to the ADS-B output of a vehicle. This model of ADS-B state error is easy to implement and apply to numerous problems. However, it has a couple of draw-backs. First, the ADS-B state errors are equally probable in all directions. This is a good assumption in situations where aircraft maneuvering is not constrained. However, in situations where the aircraft maneuvering is constrained such as landing, the error distribution is likely to exhibit directionality and the non-directional model may skew results especially when assessing very low probabilities (e.g., 10(exp -9)) of catastrophic encounters. Second, the model does not account for processing latency in the receiving aircraft. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) recently examined the feasibility of decreasing the spacing of aircraft on parallel approaches to runways separated by as little as 700 feet. For Monte-Carlo analysis using a high-fidelity simulation of a large transport, LaRC started with a Gauss-Markov model of ADS-B error but then developed a component level model of ADS-B error to increase the fidelity of results.

Madden, Michael M.↗

Solar PV Curtailment in Changing Grid and Technological Contexts: Preprint

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In 2018, we estimate that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, we argue that changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. We argue that the changing grid and technological contexts require a re-examination of the curtailment paradigm. We argue that PV output that is withheld to provide grid services is fundamentally different from output that goes unused in response to system constraints. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential. The terminological distinction is more than a question of semantics. Facilitating grid services by withholding PV output may increase the potential value of flexible PV systems to the grid. This shift in thinking may allow grid operators and policymakers to think in terms of PV curtailment management rather than minimization. Effective curtailment management may include policies that increase PV system dispatchability, alternative PV compensation schemes that decouple generator revenue from system output, and policies to increase grid flexibility.

Chile↗

An Introduction to the FCRD Transmutation Fuels Handbook 2015

Transmutation of minor actinides such as Np, Am, and Cm in spent nuclear fuel is of international interest because of its potential for reducing the long-term health and safety hazards caused by the radioactivity of the spent fuel. For this reason, the DOE Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) has been performing research on nuclear fuel technologies that could be used in conjunction with a future actinide transmutation mission. One important approach to transmutation involves incorporating the minor actinides into U-Pu-Zr alloys, which can be used as fuel in fast reactors. It is, therefore, important to understand the properties of U-Pu-Zr alloys. The Idaho National Laboratory has recently published a handbook intended to summarize key properties of these alloys for researchers. This handbook focuses on phases and key thermophysical properties of elements and alloys in the U-Pu-Zr system. It is envisioned as the first of a series, which will serve as a summary of current knowledge about important properties of transmutation fuels. Future volumes will include information about properties and materials not covered in the first edition, as well as updates to information in this edition of the handbook. The handbook is intended to serve two audiences. One audience is researchers, who may find it useful to know what has been measured, where it has been published, and what kinds of information are needed. A second audience is modelers, who need a concise summary of information about specific properties and the accuracy with which they are known. The two audiences have different needs, and the handbook is a compromise intended to be useful to both. Therefore, it includes summaries of research results and needs, but generally does not present the original data. It also includes numerous graphs and, where available, equations that provide convenient approximations to materials properties for modelers. It is important to understand that most of the equations provided in this handbook are derived by fitting polynomials to data and have no physical basis; while they can be used with caution for design studies, fuel modelers will probably want to use the original experimental data to develop or validate their own equations and/or models. Although the handbook includes some citations to research involving development of models, its primary focus is experimental data. Many of the measurements of the U-Pu-Zr system were made before 1980. Where possible, the handbook relies on previous reviews of experimental data rather than presenting new interpretations of the old information. It is expected that researchers will refer to the original literature for details that are not presented in the handbook. Metals and alloys in the U-Pu-Zr system are uniquely difficult to study for a number of reasons. Experimental designs may need to be modified to allow researchers to work with these hazardous materials safely. Kinetics of phase transformations are commonly sluggish, and it is highly unlikely that all of the samples in previous research had equilibrium phases and microstructures. Thermal cycling effects (changes in sample characteristics that are not fully reversed during cooling) are commonly reported and may be significant. Careful control of impurities (particularly oxygen) during sample fabrication and data collection is both crucial and difficult, and concentrations below 100 ppm in samples may significantly affect thermophysical properties. For all of these reasons, differences between measured values for similar alloys are commonly far larger than the estimated errors for individual measurements. Further research on well-characterized materials with careful control of impurities is needed for all of the alloys discussed here. The 2015 FCRD Handbook summarizes currently available information about U, Pu, Zr, and their binary and ternary alloys. It contains information about phase diagrams and related information (including phases and phase transformations); heat capacity, entropy, and enthalpy; thermal expansion; and thermal conductivity and diffusivity. In addition to presenting information about materials properties, it attempts to provide information about how well the property is known and how much variation exists between measurements. Although the handbook includes some references to publications about modeling, its primary focus is experimental data. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings

In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.

electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗

IPEAT+: A Built-In Optimization and Automatic Calibration Tool of SWAT+

For almost 30 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been successfully implemented to address issues around various scientific subjects in the world. On the other hand, it has been reaching to the limit of potential flexibility in further development by the current structure. The new generation SWAT, dubbed SWAT+, was released recently with entirely new coding features. SWAT+ is designed to have far more advanced functions and capacities to handle challenging watershed modeling tasks for hydrologic and water quality processes. However, it is still inevitable to conduct model calibration before the SWAT+ model is applied to engineering projects and research programs. The primary goal of this study is to develop an open-source, easy-to-operate automatic calibration tool for SWAT+, dubbed IPEAT+ (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool Plus). There are four major advantages: (i) Open-source code to general users; (ii) compiled and integrated directly with SWAT+ source code as a single executable; (iii) supported by the SWAT developer group; and, (iv) built with efficient optimization technique. The coupling work between IPEAT+ and SWAT+ is fairly simple, which can be conducted by users with minor efforts. IPEAT+ will be regularly updated with the latest SWAT+ revision. If users would like to integrate IPEAT+ with various versions of SWAT+, only few lines in the SWAT+ source code are required to be updated. IPEAT+ is the first automatic calibration tool integrated with SWAT+ source code. Users can take advantage of the tool to pursue more cutting-edge and forward-thinking scientific questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Definition of experiments to investigate fire suppressants in microgravity

Defined and justified here are the conceptual design and operation of a critical set of experiments expected to yield information on suppressants and on suppressant delivery systems under realistic spacecraft-fire conditions (smoldering). Specific experiment parameters are provided on the solid fuel (carbon), oxidants (habitable spacecraft atmospheres), fuel/oxidant supply, mixing mode, and rate (quiescent and finite; ventilated and replenishable), ignition mode, event, and reignition tendency, fire-zone size, fire conditions, lifetime, and consequences (toxicity), suppressants (CO2, H2O, N2) and suppressant delivery systems, and diagnostics. Candidate suppressants were identified after an analysis of how reduced gravity alters combustion, and how these alterations may influence the modes, mechanisms, and capacities of terrestrial agents to suppress unwanted combustion, or fire. Preferred spacecraft suppression concepts included the local, near-quiescent application of a gas, vapor, or mist that has thermophysical fire-suppression activity and is chemically inert under terrestrial (normal gravity) combustion conditions. The scale, number, and duration (about 1 hour) of the proposed low-gravity experiments were estimated using data not only on the limitations imposed by spacecraft-carrier (Shuttle or Space Station Freedom) accommodations, but also data on the details and experience of standardized smolder-suppression experiments at normal gravity. Deliberately incorporated into the conceptual design was sufficient interchangeability for the prototype experimental package to fly either on Shuttle now or Freedom later. This flexibility is provided by the design concept of up to 25 modular fuel canisters within a containment vessel, which permits both integration into existing low-gravity in-space combustion experiments and simultaneous testing of separate experiments to conserve utilities and time.

Reuther, James J.↗

Long-term nitrogen deposition enhances microbial capacities in soil carbon stabilization but reduces network complexity

Background: Anthropogenic activities have increased the inputs of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, affecting soil carbon stability and microbial communities. Previous studies have primarily examined the effects of nitrogen deposition on microbial taxonomy, enzymatic activities, and functional processes. Here, we examined various functional traits of soil microbial communities and how these traits are interrelated in a Mediterranean type grassland administrated with 14 years of 7 g m –2 year –1 of N amendment, based on estimated atmospheric N deposition in areas within California, USA, by the end of the twenty-first century. Results: Soil microbial communities were significantly altered by N deposition. Consistent with higher aboveground plant biomass and litter, fast-growing bacteria, assessed by abundance-weighted average rRNA operon copy number, were favored in N deposited soils. The relative abundances of genes associated with labile carbon (C) degradation (e.g., amyA and cda) were also increased. In contrast, the relative abundances of functional genes associated with the degradation of more recalcitrant C (e.g., mannanase and chitinase) were either unchanged or decreased. Compared with the ambient control, N deposition significantly reduced network complexity, such as average degree and connectedness. The network for N deposited samples contained only genes associated with C degradation, suggesting that C degradation genes became more intensely connected under N deposition. Conclusions: We propose a conceptual model to summarize the mechanisms of how changes in above- and belowground ecosystems by long-term N deposition collectively lead to more soil C accumulation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A phased workflow to define permit‐ready locations for large volume CO 2 injection and storage

Abstract To‐date, only two UIC Class VI permits have been issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency. We illustrate a four‐phase workflow to first identify regional storage resources and then down‐select sites to yield permit‐ready locations that can accept and store large volumes of CO 2 . Specific permit requirements should guide objectives and define deliverables of respective workflow phases. In the first phase we used available regional data and screened structure and injection zones to locate resources that match CO 2 volumes planned to be captured. Available data were also used to assess presence and depth of usable groundwater, the key resource being protected via permitting. We then used advanced, closed‐form, analytical solutions (EASiTool) to estimate CO 2 injectivity into each hydrologically connected injection compartment. In the second phase we acquired and conditioned additional wireline logs and leased available seismic datasets. We interpreted the depositional systems from wireline well‐log character and mapped sandbody geometry to interpolate injection and confining‐zone distribution. Using available data, we mapped faults and locations of freshwater and overpressure (or other capacity‐limiting geologic parameters) in more detail. In the third phase, we used the augmented geologic data to develop a static model for the selected area, extracted the areas of highest interest, and generated and ran dynamic (flow) models. In a fourth phase, we reduced major uncertainties identified in earlier phases. Our case study indicates that to complete preparation of a permit application requires (1) improved lithologic characterization information (thicknesses and horizontal and vertical connectivity) and (2) better definition of poorly defined local faults. © 2023 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Could on-site fuel storage economically reduce power plant-gas grid dependence in pipeline constrained areas like New England?

In the Northeastern United States, natural gas supply constraints have led to periods when gas shortages have caused up to a quarter of all unscheduled power plant outages. Dual fuel oil/gas generators or local gas storage might mitigate gas supply shortages. We use historical power plant operational and availability data to develop a supply curve of the costs required for generators to mitigate fuel shortage failures in New England. Based on 2012–2018 data, we find that the historical fuel shortages at approximately 2 GW worth of gas-fired capacity could be mitigated using on-site fuel storage. For comparison, New England’s average reserve margin was 1.7–2.8 GW over our sample period. Oil dual fuel plants would recoup their investment if compensated with a reliability adder of $\$ 3-7$/MWh during their normal operations, while $\$ 7-16$/MWh would incentivize using onsite, compressed natural gas storage. We estimate that the capital expenses associated with the fuel storage options would be less expensive than installing battery backup for resource adequacy at current battery prices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗