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Results for “Reliability Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,477 records · Page 82
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Land cover analysis of James City County, Virginia

The approach used to obtain reliable countywide forest resource data, including statistics and a forest cover distribution map from LANDSAT data is described. Comparison of results of the LANDSAT anlysis and U.S. Forestry Survey data is presented in a table. Pine, oak/pine, and oak/hickory accounted for 22.3%, 32.6% and 45.2% respectively of the total forest area in the LANDSAT analysis, compared to 22.8%, 30.1%. and 47.1% in the Forest Survey. The corresponding figures for each forest type differ at most 2.5% for the mixed forest. The total county area in forest land measured using LANDSAT was underestimated by 1,409 acres, a 2.2% error based on the Forest Survey statistics. However, the estimate of 61,242 acres fell well within the known 4% uncertainty of the estimate for the Forest Survey figures (62,651 acres + or - 2,544 acres).

Copony, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Structural Reliability of Cathode Contact Materials in Planar SOFCs

Despite significant developments in material and stack design technologies to enhance performance, the long-term mechanical reliability of solid oxide fuel cells remained an issue. The contact between electrodes and interconnects (especially the cathode side) was identified as one of the weakest links in present generation planar solid oxide fuel cells. Computational modeling was used to gain valuable insights on the cathode contact sintering mechanics and bond reliability. A continuum viscous sintering model was incorporated into a commercial finite element analysis code to simulate contact material densification and evaluate the bond and stack mechanical reliability due to developed stresses from the contact layer sintering. The parameters required for the cathode contact material constitutive model were extracted from experiments conducted for the contact material development at PNNL. The effects of contact layer thickness and sintering conditions like temperature and pressure on the stack stresses and reliability were investigated.

SOFC, FEA, Reliability↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic analysis of nonlinear rotor-housing systems

Nonlinear analysis methods are developed which will enable the reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the space shuttle main engine (SSME) turbopumps in the presence of bearing clearances and other local nonlinearities. A computationally efficient convolution method, based on discretized Duhamel and transition matrix integral formulations, is developed for the transient analysis. In the formulation, the coupling forces due to the nonlinearities are treated as external forces acting on the coupled subsystems. Iteration is utilized to determine their magnitudes at each time increment. The method is applied to a nonlinear generic model of the high pressure oxygen turbopump (HPOTP). As compared to the fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration methods, the convolution approach proved to be more accurate and more highly efficient. For determining the nonlinear, steady-state periodic responses, an incremental harmonic balance method was also developed. The method was successfully used to determine dominantly harmonic and subharmonic responses fo the HPOTP generic model with bearing clearances. A reduction method similar to the impedance formulation utilized with linear systems is used to reduce the housing-rotor models to their coordinates at the bearing clearances. Recommendations are included for further development of the method, for extending the analysis to aperiodic and chaotic regimes and for conducting critical parameteric studies of the nonlinear response of the current SSME turbopumps.

Noah, Sherif T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Redefining Resource Adequacy for Modern Power Systems: A Report of the Redefining Resource Adequacy Task Force

Today's rapidly increasing levels of wind, solar, storage, and load flexibility require the industry to rethink reliability planning and resource adequacy methods for modern power systems. Periods with a risk of shortfall often no longer coincide with peak demand - reliability risks are less about peak load and more about the daily setting of the sun, extended cloud cover, wind speeds, cold snaps, and heat waves. In addition, demand is increasingly flexible. Key resources are time-sensitive, as batteries need time to recharge and electricity customers can only be asked to provide demand response for just so long. And reliability failures are often correlated - with one another and with the weather. Two driving factors require the industry to reconsider its analytical approach for resource adequacy: (1) Chronological grid operations: The increasing importance of variable renewable resources (such as wind and solar) and of energy-limited resources (storage and demand response) make it essential to understand the full year of chronological operation of the grid. Specific attention must be paid to hourly, seasonal, and inter-annual resource variability. The sequence of the variability is key, as energy-limited resources such as batteries or demand response require either a preceding period or subsequent period of high production to be useful for grid reliability. (2) Correlated events: Historically, resource adequacy analysis focused on shortfalls caused by random, discrete mechanical failures of large generating units. In contrast, shortfalls today are often caused by multiple, correlated events caused by common weather patterns. Resource adequacy analysis must increasingly shift its focus to these correlated events. The redesign of resource adequacy methods will benefit from a set of guiding principles to better allow for sharing of insights and best practices, interregional resource coordination, and a smoother regulatory process for resource procurement. The objective of this report is to move this redesign forward. It provides an overview of key drivers changing the way resource adequacy needs to be evaluated, identifies shortcomings of conventional approaches, and outlines first principles for practitioners to consider as they adapt their approaches. The central message is: what got us here won't get us there.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Comprehensive Structural Dynamic Analysis Approach for Multi Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) Development

The anticipated NASA Mars Sample Return Mission (MSR) requires a simple and reliable method in which to return collected Martian samples back to earth for scientific analysis. The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is NASA's proposed solution to this MSR requirement. Key aspects of the MMEEV are its reliable and passive operation, energy absorbing foam-composite structure, and modular impact sphere (IS) design. To aid in the development of an EEV design that can be modified for various missions requirements, two fully parametric finite element models were developed. The first model was developed in an explicit finite element code and was designed to evaluate the impact response of the vehicle and payload during the final stage of the vehicle's return to earth. The second model was developed in an explicit code and was designed to evaluate the static and dynamic structural response of the vehicle during launch and reentry. In contrast to most other FE models, built through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) pre-processor, the current model was developed using a coding technique that allows the analyst to quickly change nearly all aspects of the model including: geometric dimensions, material properties, load and boundary conditions, mesh properties, and analysis controls. Using the developed design tool, a full range of proposed designs can quickly be analyzed numerically and thus the design trade space for the EEV can be fully understood. An engineer can then quickly reach the best design for a specific mission and also adapt and optimize the general design for different missions.

Perino, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1975

Criteria for identification of ablation debris from primitive meteoric bodies

Samples of ablated materials are analyzed to determine properties expected to be characteristic of particulates generated by the ablation of primitive meteoric bodies. Analyses of carbonaceous-chondrite fusion crusts and samples artificially ablated in the laboratory indicate that most meteor-ablation debris should consist of assemblages of silicate minerals, principally olivine, and micron-sized magnetic grains. It is expected that ablation debris of at least 10 microns should have abundances of Fe, Mg, Si, Ca, and Ni similar to those found in chondritic meteorites. Volatile species such as S, H2O, and Cl are lost during ablation and normally should not be found in ablated material. The major findings of this study are supported by analysis of spherules collected in the atmosphere which are thought, on separate grounds, to be genuine meteor-ablation products. The majority of meteoric bodies probably have cometary origins, and it is hoped that the ability to collect and identify meteor-ablation debris reliably will provide an opportunity to do laboratory analysis of cometary matter.-

Brownlee, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Shallow Embedded Strain Measurements and Analysis for a NbTi Superconducting Sextupole Coil During Cooling, Excitation, and Quench

The present study deals with strain measurements and their numerical analysis for a niobium titanium wire wounded superconducting sextupole coil in a multi-field operation environment, including cooling down, excitation, and quench. Four low-temperature resistance strain gauges with designed compensation circuits were affixed directly on the surface of the superconducting wires but within glass fiber cloth. Before the sextuple coil’s test was carried out, for the purpose of reliability, based on the designed compensation circuit, some basic experiments were carried out during cooling down, excitation, and quench. The experimental results showed that the shallow embedded low-temperature resistance strain gauges were still highly reproducible with an error of 1% for a variable magnetic field and an error of 5% for a variable thermal field by executing various modes. It shows multi-stage strain monitoring is feasible for the superconducting sextupole. In addition, a numerical multiphysics model for the sextuple coil is also built from Maxwell’s equations and the equilibrium equations for mechanical and thermal deformation. A self-tested elastic modulus of NbTi/Cu stack with epoxy, which is cut from a NbTi/Cu sextupole prototype, at low temperature is used in this simulation. The numerical results have reasonable agreement with the experimental observations and show the multiphysics model with self-tested elastic modulus can be applied to analysis strain behaviors under complicated fields before superconducting magnet assembly. The present results will also provide some strain-measuring technology and multiphysics numerical analysis on an LTS/HTS superconducting magnet developed at the Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMP, CAS).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of the Biot–Gassmann Fluid Substitution Method and Machine Learning-Based Velocity–Stress Relationship for Estimating In Situ Stresses

Recent advancements have shown that in situ stresses can be reliably estimated through an integrated machine/deep learning (ML/DL)-based framework, which relies on models trained and validated using true triaxial ultrasonic velocity (TUV) experimental data that involve measurements of ultrasonic velocity in saturated rocks under varying stress configurations. However, when the goal is to interpret lower frequency measurements, it may be more appropriate to run experiments on dry rocks and then obtain Biot–Gassmann-derived equivalent saturated velocities (low-frequency approximation) and employ these quantities for training ML/DL models to predict in situ stress. Whether the dispersion effect of frequency on the velocity–stress relationship substantially impacts in situ stress prediction is an important and unresolved question. This work presents an enhancement of ML/DL-based workflow by training and implementing ML/DL models using equivalent saturated acoustic velocities (low-frequency) obtained by applying Biot–Gassmann fluid substitution on the ultrasonic velocities of dry cores. The models were trained on TUV data sets derived from three subsurface cores extracted from the geothermal well 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site. Each core was subjected to 75 unique stress configurations for velocity measurement in the dry state. The ML/DL trained on the TUV data set with equivalent saturated velocities demonstrated promising performance to predict in situ stress in subsurface geological rocks using velocity–stress relationships with R 2 of 0.86, 0.971, and 0.975 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.59, 1.92, and 1.80 for validation/testing phases of vertical, minimum horizontal, and maximum horizontal stress models, respectively. Additionally, interpretation and explanation by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further improved scientific validation and model reliability for estimating in situ stresses.

colloids↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of environmental variables on the degradation of photovoltaic components and perspectives for the reliability assessment methodology

Backsheet cracking has been a major issue observed in the field; however, standardized qualification tests, such as IEC61215, are inadequate to reliably identify such failures of PV modules due to the lack of the critical weathering factors applied sequentially or in combination, such as those found in the service environments. To address this problem, in this work we investigated the effects of various environmental variables on the degradation and failure behaviors of the polyamide-based backsheet in PV modules retrieved from five different locations, encompassing a variety of climates, including humid subtropical, hot-summer Mediterranean, tropical savanna climate and hot arid. The correlations between the degradation indicators and the weathering variables were further demonstrated by principle components analysis (PCA). We found strong relationships between: carbonyl formation and reflected solar radiation; hydroxyl formation and module temperature; yellowness and NO2 concentration, while no simple correlation could be found between a specific weathering factor and cracking. By introducing additional stress factors to the aged polyamide-based backsheet films with the novel 'fragmentation test', we successfully reproduced the field cracking behaviour. This study has demonstrated that different degradation modes of PV components respond differently to the environmental stresses encountered in service. Thereby, any accelerated laboratory test based on a single set condition or lacking key environmental variables would be inadequate to assess the long-term performance of PV modules and components. A new reliability-based methodology is proposed to quantitatively link laboratory testing with field results for the service life prediction of PV materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

FSA future directions: Reliability and engineering sciences FY85-FY86 activities and plans

Objectives were listed for four areas: engineering science, reliability physics, module development, and module performance and failure analysis. The engineering science efforts are to develop module design requirements for large-scale photovoltaic (PV) applications and to develop generic module and array design and construction technology to meet the needed performance, safety, reliability, and system interfaces. The reliability physics effort is to develop the technology for 30-year life modules. The module development efforts are to transfer new technology to PV manufacturers and their products, and to evaluate these advanced modules. The module performance and failure analysis efforts are to determine PV module performance, to identify needed development, and to assess suitability for large-scale use.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Sizing Methodology for the Conceptual Design of Blended-Wing-Body Transports

This paper describes the development of a methodology for sizing Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transports and how the capabilities of the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) have been expanded using that methodology. In this approach, BWB transports are sized based on the number of passengers in each class that must fit inside the centerbody or pressurized vessel. Weight estimation equations for this centerbody structure were developed using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This paper shows how the sizing methodology has been incorporated into FLOPS to enable the design and analysis of BWB transports. Previous versions of FLOPS did not have the ability to accurately represent or analyze BWB configurations in any reliable, logical way. The expanded capabilities allow the design and analysis of a 200 to 450-passenger BWB transport or the analysis of a BWB transport for which the geometry is already known. The modifications to FLOPS resulted in differences of less than 4 percent for the ramp weight of a BWB transport in this range when compared to previous studies performed by NASA and Boeing.

Kimmel, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Toward automatic finite element analysis

Two problems must be solved if the finite element method is to become a reliable and affordable blackbox engineering tool. Finite element meshes must be generated automatically from computer aided design databases and mesh analysis must be made self-adaptive. The experimental system described solves both problems in 2-D through spatial and analytical substructuring techniques that are now being extended into 3-D.

Kela, Ajay↗
NASA NTRS2005

High-Temperature Structures, Adhesives, and Advanced Thermal Protection Materials for Next-Generation Aeroshell Design

The next generation of planetary exploration vehicles will rely heavily on robust aero-assist technologies, especially those that include aerocapture. This paper provides an overview of an ongoing development program, led by NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and aimed at introducing high-temperature structures, adhesives, and advanced thermal protection system (TPS) materials into the aeroshell design process. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate TPS materials that can withstand the higher heating rates of NASA's next generation planetary missions, and to validate high-temperature structures and adhesives that can reduce required TPS thickness and total aeroshell mass, thus allowing for larger science payloads. The effort described consists of parallel work in several advanced aeroshell technology areas. The areas of work include high-temperature adhesives, high-temperature composite materials, advanced ablator (TPS) materials, sub-scale demonstration test articles, and aeroshell modeling and analysis. The status of screening test results for a broad selection of available higher-temperature adhesives is presented. It appears that at least one (and perhaps a few) adhesives have working temperatures ranging from 315-400 C (600-750 F), and are suitable for TPS-to-structure bondline temperatures that are significantly above the traditional allowable of 250 C (482 F). The status of mechanical testing of advanced high-temperature composite materials is also summarized. To date, these tests indicate the potential for good material performance at temperatures of at least 600 F. Application of these materials and adhesives to aeroshell systems that incorporate advanced TPS materials may reduce aeroshell TPS mass by 15% - 30%. A brief outline is given of work scheduled for completion in 2006 that will include fabrication and testing of large panels and subscale aeroshell test articles at the Solar-Tower Test Facility located at Kirtland AFB and operated by Sandia National Laboratories. These tests are designed to validate aeroshell manufacturability using advanced material systems, and to demonstrate the maintenance of bondline integrity at realistically high temperatures and heating rates. Finally, a status is given of ongoing aeroshell modeling and analysis efforts which will be used to correlate with experimental testing, and to provide a reliable means of extrapolating to performance under actual flight conditions. The modeling and analysis effort includes a parallel series of experimental tests to determine TSP thermal expansion and other mechanical properties which are required for input to the analysis models.

Collins, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Estimates Of The Orbiter RSI Thermal Protection System Thermal Reliability

In support of the Space Shuttle Orbiter post-flight inspection, structure temperatures are recorded at selected positions on the windward, leeward, starboard and port surfaces. Statistical analysis of this flight data and a non-dimensional load interference (NDLI) method are used to estimate the thermal reliability at positions were reusable surface insulation (RSI) is installed. In this analysis, structure temperatures that exceed the design limit define the critical failure mode. At thirty-three positions the RSI thermal reliability is greater than 0.999999 for the missions studied. This is not the overall system level reliability of the thermal protection system installed on an Orbiter. The results from two Orbiters, OV-102 and OV-105, are in good agreement. The original RSI designs on the OV-102 Orbital Maneuvering System pods, which had low reliability, were significantly improved on OV-105. The NDLI method was also used to estimate thermal reliability from an assessment of TPS uncertainties that was completed shortly before the first Orbiter flight. Results fiom the flight data analysis and the pre-flight assessment agree at several positions near each other. The NDLI method is also effective for optimizing RSI designs to provide uniform thermal reliability on the acreage surface of reusable launch vehicles.

Kolodziej, P.↗