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NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Electron Precipitation Parameters and Ionospheric Conductances Inferred from Auroral Images Acquired by the Visible Imaging Systems (VIS) on the Polar Spacecraft

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the polar spacecraft provided time sequences of auroral images at multiple wavelengths that yield information of auroral dynamics on a global scale with a spatial resolution of - 20 km and temporal resolution of approx. 1 minute. Time sequences of VIS images in which the aurora was highly dynamic are used to infer global maps for the electron precipitation parameters, energy flux and characteristic energies, and ionospheric conductances. The maps are inferred from the corresponding VIS images using an auroral model (Lumerzheim et al., 1987). The temporal and spatial resolution of the VIS inferred patterns are unprecedented. The inferred patterns are highly structured and vary significantly on a time scale of less than 5 minutes. These patterns can be very beneficial for global physics-based numerical models for the high-latitude ionosphere which previously had to rely on statistical models for the electron precipitation and ionospheric conductance.

Sigwarth, John B.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Vertical Cloud Climatology During TC4 Derived from High-Altitude Aircraft Merged Lidar and Radar Profiles

Aircraft lidar works by shooting laser pulses toward the earth and recording the return time and intensity of any of the light returning to the aircraft after scattering off atmospheric particles and/or the Earth s surface. The scattered light signatures can be analyzed to tell the exact location of cloud and aerosol layers and, with the aid of a few optical assumptions, can be analyzed to retrieve estimates of optical properties such as atmospheric transparency. Radar works in a similar fashion except it sends pulses toward earth at a much larger wavelength than lidar. Radar records the return time and intensity of cloud or rain reflection returning to the aircraft. Lidar can measure scatter from optically thin cirrus and aerosol layers whose particles are too small for the radar to detect. Radar can provide reflection profiles through thick cloud layers of larger particles that lidar cannot penetrate. Only after merging the two instrument products can accurate measurements of the locations of all layers in the full atmospheric column be achieved. Accurate knowledge of the vertical distribution of clouds is important information for understanding the Earth/atmosphere radiative balance and for improving weather/climate forecast models. This paper describes one such merged data set developed from the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment based in Costa Rica in July-August 2007 using the nadir viewing Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) and the Cloud Radar System (CRS) on board the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Statistics were developed concerning cloud probability through the atmospheric column and frequency of the number of cloud layers. These statistics were calculated for the full study area, four sub-regions, and over land compared to over ocean across all available flights. The results are valid for the TC4 experiment only, as preferred cloud patterns took priority during mission planning. The TC4 Study Area was a very cloudy region, with cloudy profiles occurring 94 percent of the time during the ER-2 flights. One to three cloud layers were common, with the average calculated at 2.03 layers per profile. The upper troposphere had a cloud frequency generally over 30%, reaching 42 percent near 13 km during the study. There were regional differences. The Caribbean was much clearer than the Pacific regions. Land had a much higher frequency of high clouds than ocean areas. One region just south and west of Panama had a high probability of clouds below 15 km altitude with the frequency never dropping below 25% and reaching a maximum of 60% at 11-13 km altitude. These cloud statistics will help characterize the cloud volume for TC4 scientists as they try to understand the complexities of the tropical atmosphere.

Hlavka, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistics of Cloud Optical Properties from Airborne Lidar Measurements

Cloud optical properties, such as extinction-to-backscatter ratio and depolarization ratio, have a significant impact on the accuracy of cloud extinction retrievals from lidar systems because parameterizations of these variables are often used in non-ideal conditions to determine cloud type and optical depth. Statistics and trends of these optical parameters were analyzed for four years, 2003-2007, of Cloud Physics Lidar data during five projects of varying geographic locations. Extinction-to-backscatter ratio (at 532 nm) was derived by calculating the transmission loss through the cloud layer, while depolarization ratio was computed using the parallel and perpendicular polarized 1064 nm channels. The majority of the cloud layers yielded an S-ratio between 10 and 40 sr with the S-ratio frequency distribution centered at 25 sr for ice clouds, 21 sr for mixed phase clouds, and 11 sr for water clouds. On average for ice clouds, S ratio slightly decreased with decreasing temperature, while depolarization ratio increased significantly as temperatures decreased. Trends for water and mixed phase clouds were also observed. Ultimately, these observed trends in optical properties as a function of temperature and geographic location will improve current parameterizations of extinction-to-backscatter ratio, which consequently increases accuracy in cloud optical depth and radiative forcing estimates.

Yorks, John E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Sparse Superpixel Unmixing for Hyperspectral Image Analysis

Software was developed that automatically detects minerals that are present in each pixel of a hyperspectral image. An algorithm based on sparse spectral unmixing with Bayesian Positive Source Separation is used to produce mineral abundance maps from hyperspectral images. A superpixel segmentation strategy enables efficient unmixing in an interactive session. The algorithm computes statistically likely combinations of constituents based on a set of possible constituent minerals whose abundances are uncertain. A library of source spectra from laboratory experiments or previous remote observations is used. A superpixel segmentation strategy improves analysis time by orders of magnitude, permitting incorporation into an interactive user session (see figure). Mineralogical search strategies can be categorized as supervised or unsupervised. Supervised methods use a detection function, developed on previous data by hand or statistical techniques, to identify one or more specific target signals. Purely unsupervised results are not always physically meaningful, and may ignore subtle or localized mineralogy since they aim to minimize reconstruction error over the entire image. This algorithm offers advantages of both methods, providing meaningful physical interpretations and sensitivity to subtle or unexpected minerals.

Castano, Rebecca↗

NASA NTRS2010

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fermi and Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Population Studies

The new and extreme population of GRBs detected by Fermi-LAT shows several new features in high energy gamma-rays that are providing interesting and unexpected clues into GRB prompt and afterglow emission mechanisms. Over the last 6 years, it has been Swift that has provided the robust data set of UV/optical and X-ray afterglow observations that opened many windows into components of GRB emission structure. The relationship between the LAT GRBs and the well studied, fainter, less energetic GRBs detected by Swift-BAT is only beginning to be explored by multiwavelength studies. We explore the large sample of GRBs detected by BAT only, BAT and Fermi-GBM, and GBM and LAT, focusing on these samples separately in order to search for statistically significant differences between the populations, using only those GRBs with measured redshifts in order to physically characterize these objects. We disentangle which differences are instrumental selection effects versus intrinsic properties, in order to better understand the nature of the special characteristics of the LAT bursts.

Racusin, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fermi and Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Population Studies

The new and extreme population of GRBs detected by Fermi-LAT shows several new features in high energy gamma-rays that are providing interesting and unexpected clues into GRB prompt and afterglow emission mechanisms. Over the last 6 years, it has been Swift that has provided the robust data set of UV/optical and X-ray afterglow observations that opened many windows into components of GRB emission structure. The relationship between the LAT GRBs and the well studied, fainter, less energetic GRBs detected by Swift-BAT is only beginning to be explored by multi-wavelength studies. We explore the large sample of GRBs detected by BAT only, BAT and Fermi-GBM, and GBM and LAT, focusing on these samples separately in order to search for statistically significant differences between the populations, using only those GRBs with measured redshifts in order to physically characterize these objects. We disentangle which differences are instrumental selection effects versus intrinsic properties, in order to better understand the nature of the special characteristics of the LAT bursts.

Racusin, Judith I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fermi and Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Population Studies

The new and extreme population of GRBs detected by Fermi -LAT shows several new features in high energy gamma-rays that are providing interesting and unexpected clues into GRB prompt and afterglow emission mechanisms. Over the last 6 years, it has been Swift that has provided the robust dataset of UV/optical and X-ray afterglow observations that opened many windows into components of GRB emission structure. The relationship between the LAT detected GRBs and the well studied, fainter, less energetic GRBs detected by Swift -BAT is only beginning to be explored by multi-wavelength studies. We explore the large sample of GRBs detected by BAT only, BAT and Fermi -GBM, and GBM and LAT, focusing on these samples separately in order to search for statistically significant differences between the populations, using only those GRBs with measured redshifts in order to physically characterize these objects. We disentangle which differences are instrumental selection effects versus intrinsic properties, in order to better understand the nature of the special characteristics of the LAT bursts.

Racusin, Judith L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

recursive estimation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of Modeled Electron Backstreaming Failure for the NEXT Ion Thruster

Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.

Yim, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Equilibrium Selection via Current Sheet Relaxation and Guide Field Amplification

Although there is a continuous spectrum of current sheet equilibria, how a particular equilibrium is selected by a given system remains a mystery. Yet, only a limited number of equilibrium solutions are used for analyses of magnetized plasma phenomena. Here we present the exact process of equilibrium selection, by analyzing the relaxation process of a disequilibrated current sheet under a finite guide field. It is shown via phase-space analyses and particle-in-cell simulations that the current sheet relaxes in such a way that the guide field is locally amplified, yielding a mixed equilibrium from the spectrum. Comparisons to spacecraft observations and solar wind current sheet statistics demonstrate that such mixed equilibria are ubiquitous and exist as underlying local structures in various physical environments.

Young-Dae Yoon↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fast-Neutron Multiplicity Counter for the Detection of Diversion Scenarios

We demonstrated the application of a fast-neutron multiplicity counter (FNMC) to detect small variations in an assembly of uranium-oxide pins. The current version of the FNMC includes eight liquid organic scintillators (EJ-309 7.62 cm diameter x 7.62 cm) and eight crystal organic scintillators (stilbene 5.08 cm diameter x 5.08 cm) in a checkerboard assembly. We measured time-correlated fast neutrons, emitted by an assembly of 32 uranium-oxide pins, using two AmLi sources to induce fissions in the sample. Each pin is a cylinder of approximately 1 cm diameter and 10 cm length, with a mass of 75.52 g and 16.37 wt% enrichment. We removed up to 16 pins from a sample consisting of 32 pins, and determined the minimum number of pins that resulted in a statistically significant decrease of neutron coincidence counts. All the measurements were performed at the Zero Power Physics Reactor facility of Idaho National Laboratory. We found that a diversion of the four innermost pins could be detected by the system in 5 minutes. The detection of time-correlated neutrons requires their discrimination from gamma-ray events. This is an especially challenging task when measuring uranium isotopes, because of the intense gamma-ray flux generated by the radioactive decay of uranium daughters. We will describe the on-board pulse shape discrimination and post processing techniques that we applied to effectively distinguish neutrons from gamma-rays. Fast-neutron measurements have several potential advantages compared to thermal and epithermal neutron counters, the most important being a shorter die-away time and therefore reduced spurious coincidences due to accidental counts. This advantage may result in a higher sensitivity in timely detecting diversion of nuclear material from peaceful uses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Detector R&D for ANNIE and Future Neutrino Experiments

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is designed to serve as a test bed for new detector technologies in future water and liquid scintillator based neutrino experiments. Located on the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab, ANNIE will be the first gadolinium-loaded water Cherenkov detector on a neutrino beam and will provide high statistics measurements of neutron yields from neutrino interactions in water. It is also the first particle physics application of the new photosensor technology: Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs). With single photon time resolutions of roughly 50 psec and mm-level imaging capabilities, LAPPDs bring considerable new capabilities for neutrino reconstruction in Cherenkov and scintillator detectors. Leveraging this technology to make detailed neutrino measurements, ANNIE will serve as a first demonstration of their impact on physics. In addition to LAPPDs, the ANNIE R&D program will likely explore other new technologies such as the addition of water-based liquid scintillator. The ANNIE Phase II detector is currently under construction and will start to take data in the summer of 2019. In this talk, I will present on the ANNIE detector R&D program and its relevance to current and future neutrino experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

EFRC 10@10: Developing the Next Generation of Scientific Talent: Erin Ratcliff

Erin Ratcliff studied chemistry, mathematics, and statistics as an undergraduate at St. Olaf College in Minnesota and then completed a doctorate in physical chemistry at Iowa State University. That breadth of knowledge combined with her enthusiasm, drive, and ability to communicate were what convinced Regents Professor Neal Armstrong to offer her a postdoctoral position in his laboratory at the University of Arizona. One of her first tasks there was to help with the application for what became an Energy Frontier Research Center (EFRC), the Center for Interface Science: Solar Electric Materials, focused on thin-film solar cell materials. When the grant came through, Armstrong created a position for Erin as a research scientist for the Center.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

DOE OSTI2021

A particle-in-cell code comparison for ion acceleration: EPOCH, LSP, and WarpX

There are now more Particle-in-Cell (PIC) codes than ever before that researchers use to simulate intense laser-plasma interactions. To date, there have been relatively few direct comparisons of these codes in the literature, especially for relativistic intensity lasers interacting with thin overdense targets. To address this we perform a code comparison of three PIC codes: EPOCH, LSP, and WarpX for the problem of laser-driven ion acceleration in a 2D(3v) geometry for a 10 20 W cm -2 intensity laser. We examine the plasma density, ion energy spectra, and laser-plasma coupling of the three codes and find strong agreement. We also run the same simulation 20 times with different random seeds to explore statistical fluctuations of the outputs. We then compare the execution times and memory usage of the codes (without “tuning” to improve performance) using between 1 and 48 processors on one node. We provide input files to encourage larger and more frequent code comparisons in this field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

New measurements on physics of B-hadrons in ATLAS experiment

Recent results on B-hadron physics in ATLAS are reviewed. A new measurement of CP-violating parameters in B{sub s }→ J/ψφ decay is performed on full Run 1 statistics. Branching fraction BR(B{sub s }→ μ{sup +}μ{sup −}) = (0.9{sup +1.1}{sub −0.8} )×10{sup −9} is measured, below the Standard Model (SM) prediction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗