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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Estimation of beryllium ground state energy by Monte Carlo simulation

Quantum Monte Carlo method represent a powerful and broadly applicable computational tool for finding very accurate solution of the stationary Schrödinger equation for atoms, molecules, solids and a variety of model systems. Using variational Monte Carlo method we have calculated the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom. Our calculation are based on using a modified four parameters trial wave function which leads to good result comparing with the few parameters trial wave functions presented before. Based on random Numbers we can generate a large sample of electron locations to estimate the ground state energy of Beryllium. Our calculation gives good estimation for the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom comparing with the corresponding exact data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stellar population analysis of MaNGA early-type galaxies: IMF dependence and systematic effects

We study systematics associated with estimating simple stellar population (SSP) parameters – age, metallicity [M/H], α-enhancement [α/Fe], and initial mass function (IMF) shape – and associated M * /L gradients, of elliptical slow rotators (E-SRs), fast rotators (E-FRs), and S0s from stacked spectra of galaxies in the MaNGA survey. These systematics arise from (i) how one normalizes the spectra when stacking; (ii) having to subtract emission before estimating absorption line strengths; (iii) the decision to fit the whole spectrum or just a few absorption lines; (iv) SSP model differences (e.g. isochrones, enrichment, IMF). The MILES+Padova SSP models, fit to the H β , 〈Fe〉, TiO 2SDSS , and [MgFe] Lick indices in the stacks, indicate that out to the half-light radius R e : (a) ages are younger and [α/Fe] values are lower in the central regions but the opposite is true of [M/H]; (b) the IMF is more bottom-heavy in the center, but is close to Kroupa beyond about R e /2; (c) this makes M * /L about 2 × larger in the central regions than beyond R e /2. While the models of Conroy et al. return similar [M/H] and [α/Fe] profiles, the age and (hence) M * /L profiles can differ significantly even for solar abundances and a Kroupa IMF; different responses to non-solar abundances and IMF parametrization further compound these differences. There are clear (model independent) differences between E-SRs, E-FRs, and S0s: younger ages and less enhanced [α/Fe] values suggest that E-FRs and S0s are not SSPs, but relaxing this assumption is unlikely to change their inferred M * /L gradients significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stochastic level-set variational implicit-solvent approach to solute-solvent interfacial fluctuations

Recent years have seen the initial success of a variational implicit-solvent model (VISM), implemented with a robust level-set method, in capturing efficiently different hydration states and providing quantitatively good estimation of solvation free energies of biomolecules. The level-set minimization of the VISM solvation free-energy functional of all possible solute-solvent interfaces or dielectric boundaries predicts an equilibrium biomolecular conformation that is often close to an initial guess. In this work, we develop a theory in the form of Langevin geometrical flow to incorporate solute-solvent interfacial fluctuations into the VISM. Such fluctuations are crucial to biomolecular conformational changes and binding process. We also develop a stochastic level-set method to numerically implement such a theory. We describe the interfacial fluctuation through the “normal velocity” that is the solute-solvent interfacial force, derive the corresponding stochastic level-set equation in the sense of Stratonovich so that the surface representation is independent of the choice of implicit function, and develop numerical techniques for solving such an equation and processing the numerical data. We apply our computational method to study the dewetting transition in the system of two hydrophobic plates and a hydrophobic cavity of a synthetic host molecule cucurbit[7]uril. Numerical simulations demonstrate that our approach can describe an underlying system jumping out of a local minimum of the free-energy functional and can capture dewetting transitions of hydrophobic systems. In the case of two hydrophobic plates, we find that the wavelength of interfacial fluctuations has a strong influence to the dewetting transition. In addition, we find that the estimated energy barrier of the dewetting transition scales quadratically with the inter-plate distance, agreeing well with existing studies of molecular dynamics simulations. Our work is a first step toward the inclusion of fluctuations into the VISM and understanding the impact of interfacial fluctuations on biomolecular solvation with an implicit-solvent approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A novel method for quantifying irradiation damage in nuclear graphite using Raman spectroscopy

Raman spectroscopy has long been used in studying irradiation damage in carbon/graphite materials. It is however unclear if the measurements from different types of materials are directly comparable. Further, decoupling the contribution from irradiation temperature and fluence to the total damage in nuclear graphite possessing irradiation damage gradient is currently not readily feasible as it requires a complete set of test reactor irradiation experiments over the relevant temperature and fluence range. A novel methodology has therefore been proposed and developed to quantify total irradiation damage evolution at crystal level based on graphite Raman G-band position shift. Specifically, G-band positions derived from a large number of spectra collected from the fractured surface of microfine-grained POCO ZXF-5Q graphite possessing proton irradiation damage gradient were plotted with open literature Raman data on HOPG, BEPO (AXGP graphite), PCEA and IG-110 graphite as a function of dpa. The total damage level within 2σ beam radius in this POCO graphite was estimated to be equivalent to ~2–5 dpa at ~350–370 °C. Derived G-band positions were then mapped to the three-stage amorphization trajectory model indicating beam centre area has entered the second stage, i.e., transitioning from nanocrystalline graphite into amorphous carbon. G-band position relative shift (ΔG) curve with a ‘turn-around’ peak as a function of total damage can be used for in-service lifetime prediction. Importantly, the developed methodology has the potential to ‘unify’ total damage levels across different grades of nuclear graphite caused by ion, neutron and proton irradiation at different temperatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantifying Thermal Output of Energetic Materials (LDRD Final Report)

We present the results of an LDRD project, funded by the Nuclear Deterrence IA, to develop capabilities for quantitative assessment of pyrotechnic thermal output. The thermal battery igniter is used as an exemplar system. Experimental methodologies for thermal output evaluation are demonstrated here, which can help designers and engineers better specify pyrotechnic components , provide thermal output guidelines for new formulations, and generate new metrics for assessing component performance and margin given a known failure condition. A heat-transfer analysis confirms that the dominant mode of energy transfer from the pyrotechnic output plume to the heat pellet is conduction via deposition of hot titanium particles. A simple lumped-parameter model of titanium particle heat transfer and a detailed multi-phase model of deposition heat transfer are discussed. Pyrotechnic function, as defined by "go/no-go" standoff testing of a heat pellet, is correlated with experimentally measured igniter plume temperature, titanium metal particle temperature, and energy deposition. Three high-speed thermal diagnostics were developed for this task. A three-color imaging pyrometer, acquiring 100k images per second on three color channels, is deployed for measurement of titanium particle temperatures. Complimentary measurements of the overall igniter plume emission ("color") temperature were conducted using a transmission-grating spectrograph in line-imaging mode. Heat flux and energy deposition to a cold wall at the heat-pellet location were estimated using an eroding thermocouple probe, with a frequency response of ~5 kHz. Ultimate "go/no-go" function in the igniter/heat-pellet system was correlated with quantitative thermal metrics, in particular surface energy deposition and plume color temperature. Titanium metal-particle and plume color temperatures both experience an upper bound approximated by the 3245-K boiling point of TiO 2 . Average metal-particle temperatures remained nearly constant for all standoff distances at T = 2850 K, ± 300 K, while plume color temperature and heat flux decay with standoff—suggesting that heat-pellet failure results from a drop in metal-particle flux and not particle temperature. At 50% likelihood of heat-pellet failure, peak time-resolved plume color temperatures drop well below TiO 2 boiling to ~2000 - 2200 K, near the TiO 2 melting point. Estimates of peak heat flux decline from up to 1 GW/m 2 for near-field standoffs to below 320 MW/m 2 at 50% failure likelihood.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An estimation of photon scattering length in tetraphenyl-butadiene

Tetraphenyl-butadiene (TPB) is a wavelength shifting material that can absorb ultraviolet photons and emit blue photons. It is used in the detection of vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) photons, for which typical photo-sensors, such as most photomultiplier tubes (PMT) and silicon photomultipliers (SiPM), do not have any quantum efficiency. The secondary blue light is emitted isotropically, however, due to scattering within the material, its angular distribution upon exiting the material can not be easily predicted. In this work, we describe a procedure for estimating the scattering length of blue light in TPB, by measuring and modeling the angular distribution as a function of layer thickness. The experiment consists of shining 254nm light at various thicknesses of TPB deposited on fused silica, and measuring the intensity of blue light using SiPMs on either side of the sample. We simulate light propagation within the sample to estimate the light yield and compare that to the data, which allows us to estimate mean scattering length for photons in TPB to be in the range 2–3 µm, with some preference for a central value of 2.75 µm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Conditional Karhunen–Loève regression model with Basis Adaptation for high-dimensional problems: Uncertainty quantification and inverse modeling

Here, we propose a methodology for improving the accuracy of surrogate models of the observable response of physical systems as a function of the systems’ spatially heterogeneous parameter fields, with applications to uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation in high-dimensional problems. Practitioners often formulate finite-dimensional representations of spatially heterogeneous parameter fields using truncated unconditional Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) for a certain choice of unconditional covariance kernel and construct surrogate models of the observable response with respect to the KLE coefficients. When direct measurements of the parameter fields are available, we propose improving the accuracy of these surrogate models by representing the parameter fields via conditional Karhunen-Loève expansions (CKLEs). CKLEs are constructed by conditioning the covariance kernel of the unconditional expansion on the direct measurements of the parameter field via Gaussian process regression, and then truncating the corresponding KLE. We apply the proposed methodology to constructing surrogate models via the Basis Adaptation (BA) method of the stationary hydraulic head response, measured at spatially discrete observation locations, of a groundwater flow model of the Hanford Site, as a function of the 1000-dimensional representation of the model’s log-transmissivity field. We find that BA surrogate models of the hydraulic head based on CKLEs are more accurate than BA surrogate models based on unconditional expansions for forward uncertainty quantification tasks. Furthermore, we find that inverse estimates of the hydraulic transmissivity field computed using CKLE-based BA surrogate models are more accurate than those computed using unconditional BA surrogate models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sparsifying priors for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model discovery

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chemical looping combustion oxygen carrier production cost study

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of commercial production of oxygen carriers (OCs) for large-scale application in a mature, chemical looping combustion (CLC) power generation industry. Estimates of cost were made for two production facility scenarios: 1) build and operate an on-site, OC production facility located at a 550 MW CLC power plant site; and 2) build and operate a central production facility to produce and distribute OCs to the U.S. CLC power generation industry. Two OC production techniques were addressed: mechanical mixing and co-precipitation. Representative OCs that have production raw materials with sufficient commercial availability to support a CLC industry are ilmenite, a natural OC, and four engineered OC types, Fe 2 O 3 -based, CuO-based, NiO-based, and CuFeAlO 4 -based, with candidate OC support materials Al 2 O 3 and TiO 2 . The costs of the OC production raw materials represent the major portion of the OC product cost; the OC production cost, in dollars per kg, has been found to be nearly a linear function of the OC raw materials cost, in dollars per kg. In conclusion, the estimated OC product costs can be used to estimate the maximum OC loss rate yielding a designated CLC power plant cost-of-electricity (COE) target as a development guide, and it has been found that the maximum OC makeup rate, in kg per hour, achieving a designated COE reduction goal relative to a conventional pulverized coal (PC) power plant, will be nearly inversely proportional to the OC production raw materials cost, in dollars per kg.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estimating local noise power spectrum from a few FBP-reconstructed CT scans

Purpose: Traditional ways to estimate 2D CT noise power spectrum (NPS) involve an ensemble average of the power spectrums of many noisy scans. When only a few scans are available, regions of interest are often extracted from different locations to obtain sufficient samples to estimate the NPS. Using image samples from different locations ignores the nonstationarity of CT noise and thus cannot accurately characterize its local properties. The purpose of this work is to develop a method to estimate local NPS using only a few fan-beam CT scans. Methods: As a result of FBP reconstruction, the CT NPS has the same radial profile shape for all projection angles, with the magnitude varying with the noise level in the raw data measurement. This allows a 2D CT NPS to be factored into products of a 1D angular and a 1D radial function in polar coordinates. The polar separability of CT NPS greatly reduces the data requirement for estimating the NPS. The authors use this property and derive a radial NPS estimation method: in brief, the radial profile shape is estimated from a traditional NPS based on image samples extracted at multiple locations. The amplitudes are estimated by fitting the traditional local NPS to the estimated radial profile shape. The estimated radial profile shape and amplitudes are then combined to form a final estimate of the local NPS. We evaluate the accuracy of the radial NPS method and compared it to traditional NPS methods in terms of normalized mean squared error (NMSE) and signal detectability index. Results: For both simulated and real CT data sets, the local NPS estimated with no more than six scans using the radial NPS method was very close to the reference NPS, according to the metrics of NMSE and detectability index. Even with only two scans, the radial NPS method was able to achieve a fairly good accuracy. Compared to those estimated using traditional NPS methods, the accuracy improvement was substantial when a few scans were available. Conclusions: The radial NPS method was shown to be accurate and efficient in estimating the local NPS of FBP-reconstructed 2D CT images. It presents strong advantages over traditional NPS methods when the number of scans is limited and can be extended to estimate the in-plane NPS of cone-beam CT and multislice helical CT scans.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Reexamining the proton-radius problem using constrained Gaussian processes

The “proton radius puzzle” refers to an 8-year-old problem that highlights major inconsistencies in the extraction of the charge radius of the proton from muonic Lamb-shift experiments as compared against experiments using elastic electron scattering. For the latter approach, the determination of the charge radius involves an extrapolation of the experimental form factor to zero momentum transfer. To estimate the proton radius, a novel and powerful nonparametric method based on a constrained Gaussian process is introduced. Furthermore, the constrained Gaussian process models the electric form factor as a function of the momentum transfer. Within a Bayesian paradigm, we develop a model flexible enough to fit the data without any parametric assumptions on the form factor. The Bayesian estimation is guided by imposing only two physical constraints on the form factor: (a) its value at zero momentum transfer (normalization) and (b) its overall shape, assumed to be a monotonically decreasing function of the momentum transfer. Variants of these assumptions are explored to assess their impact.By adopting both constraints and incorporating the whole range of experimental data available we extracted a charge radius of r p = 0.845 ± 0.001 fm, consistent with the muonic experiment. Nevertheless, we show that within our model the extracted radius depends on both the assumed constraints and the range of experimental data used to fit the Gaussian process. For example, if only low-momentum-transfer data are used, relaxing the normalization constraint provides a value compatible with the larger electronic value. We have presented a novel technique to estimate the proton radius from electron-scattering data based on a constrained Gaussian process. We demonstrated that the impact of imposing sensible physical constraints on the form factor is substantial. Also critical is the range of the experimental data used in the extrapolation. We are hopeful that as the technique gets refined, together with the anticipated new results from the PRad experiment, we will get closer to a resolution of the puzzle.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Building Foundations for Nuclear Security Enterprise Analysis Utilizing Nuclear Weapon Data

The Nuclear Security Enterprise, managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration - a semiautonomous agency within the Department of Energy - has been associated with numerous assessments with respect to the estimating, management capabilities, and practices pertaining to nuclear weapon modernization efforts. This report identifies challenges in estimating and analyzing the Nuclear Security Enterprise through an analysis of analogous timeframe conditions utilizing two types of nuclear weapon data - (1) a measure of effort and (2) a function of time. The analysis of analogous timeframe conditions that utilizes only two types of nuclear weapon data yields four summary observations that estimators and analysts of the Nuclear Security Enterprise will find useful.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: covariance modelling and its impact on parameter estimation and quality of fit

ABSTRACT We describe and test the fiducial covariance matrix model for the combined two-point function analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES-Y3) data set. Using a variety of new ansatzes for covariance modelling and testing, we validate the assumptions and approximations of this model. These include the assumption of Gaussian likelihood, the trispectrum contribution to the covariance, the impact of evaluating the model at a wrong set of parameters, the impact of masking and survey geometry, deviations from Poissonian shot noise, galaxy weighting schemes, and other sub-dominant effects. We find that our covariance model is robust and that its approximations have little impact on goodness of fit and parameter estimation. The largest impact on best-fitting figure-of-merit arises from the so-called fsky approximation for dealing with finite survey area, which on average increases the χ2 between maximum posterior model and measurement by $3.7{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (Δχ2 ≈ 18.9). Standard methods to go beyond this approximation fail for DES-Y3, but we derive an approximate scheme to deal with these features. For parameter estimation, our ignorance of the exact parameters at which to evaluate our covariance model causes the dominant effect. We find that it increases the scatter of maximum posterior values for Ωm and σ8 by about $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and for the dark energy equation-of-state parameter by about $5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Superfast quarks in deuterium

An extension to our previous study on nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) [Kim and Miller, Phys. Rev. C 106, 055202 (2022)] using light-front holographic quantum chromodynamics (LFHQCD) [Brodsky, de Teramond, Dosch, and Erlich, Phys. Rep. 584, 1 (2015)] is presented. We apply the effects of nucleon motion inside the nucleus (Fermi motion/smearing) to deuterium, extending our deuterium nPDFs to the superfast , 𝑥 > 1, region [Frankfurt and Strikman, Phys. Rep. 160, 235 (1988)] where we estimate our results to be reasonable up to 𝑥 ≈ 1.7. We utilize four different deuteron wave functions (AV18, NijmI, NijmII, Nijm93). We find that our model, with no additional new parameters, shows very good agreement with deuterium EMC ratio data obtained from the BONuS experiment [Fenker et al., Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. A 592, 273 (2008); Baillie et al. (CLAS Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 142001 (2012); Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 199902(E) (2012); Tkachenko et al. (CLAS Collaboration), Phys. Rev. C 89, 045206 (2014); Phys. Rev. C 90, 059901(E) (2014); Griffioen et al., Phys. Rev. C 92, 015211 (2015)]. Looking beyond conventional nuclear physics, and in anticipation of 12 GeV experiments at Jefferson Lab, we use a LFHQCD ansatz to predict the contributions of an exotic six-quark state to the deuteron 𝐹 2 structure function, 𝐹$^D_2$, in the superfast region. We find that the effects of using other potentials are about the same magnitude as six-quark effects—both have small effects in 𝑥 < 1, but have significant contributions at 𝑥 > 1.

Physics↗

Use of Cardiac Imaging to Evaluate Cardiac Function and Pulmonary Hemodynamics in Patients with Heart Failure

Purpose of Review: Noninvasive hemodynamic assessments in patients with heart failure (HF) are essential for appropriate diagnosis and establishment of the best treatment strategies. Recently, the impact of pulmonary circulation and right ventricular function on prognosis in HF patients has drawn increasing attention. In this article, we explore the usefulness of cardiac imaging for hemodynamic assessments, mainly focusing on echocardiographic evaluation. Recent Findings: The reliability of Doppler echocardiography as a noninvasive alternative to Swan-Ganz catheterization has been well investigated with higher than 80% accuracy for estimating pulmonary artery pressure. Strain measurement and three-dimensional echocardiography are useful for evaluating right ventricular function together with pulmonary circulation. The accuracy of analyzing left and right ventricular functions by cardiac computed tomography and cardiac magnetic resonate imaging has also been established. These modalities can provide myocardial tissue information and allow calculation of the extracellular volume fraction as well. Summary: According to the rapid improvement of technologies, cardiac imaging has become an essential tool for hemodynamic evaluation in HF management.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Sequential Learning of Active Subspaces

This study shows that in recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite differencing may be infeasible. In such cases, often a surrogate model is employed, on which finite differencing is performed. When the surrogate model is a Gaussian process (GP), we show that the ASM estimator is available in closed form, rendering the finite-difference approximation unnecessary. We use our closed-form solution to develop acquisition functions focused on sequential learning tailored to sensitivity analysis on top of ASMs. We also show that the traditional ASM estimator may be viewed as a method of moments estimator for a certain class of GPs. We demonstrate how uncertainty on GP hyperparameters may be propagated to uncertainty on the sensitivity analysis, allowing model-based confidence intervals on the active subspace. Our methodological developments are illustrated on several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗