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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of a Sustainable Green Chemistry Platform for Production of Acetone and Downstream Drop-in Fuel and Commodity Products directly from Biomass Syngas via a Novel Energy Conserving Route in Engineered Acetogenic Bacteria

LanzaTech and Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed and scaled up a process for sustainable production of acetone and downstream drop-in fuel and commodity products directly from biomass syngas via a novel energy conserving route in engineered acetogenic bacteria. This process offers a safer and more environmentally-friendly production method for acetone production than the current phenol-dependent method, and the product has significantly lower GHG emissions. The developed process offers a cost competitive route to Acetone and enables biofuels at or below DOE’s $3/gge target. In addition, it also provides an attractive biological alternative to traditional sugar-based ABE fermentation, by enabling utilization of non-food biomass resources as fermentation feedstocks. Challenges overcome: (1) By-products formation: Byproduct 2,3-butanediol and 3-hydroxybutyrate reduce yield and stability. Addressed by elimination of both pathways in the chassis acetone production strain. (2) Cost competitiveness: Addressed by developing an integrated acetone strain and eliminating by-products to increase yield and stability. Optimized co-selectivity and co-productivity of acetone and ethanol, based on technoeconomic analysis. (3) Limited enzyme variety: Addressed by genome mining of over 300 industrial strains in LanzaTech collection, identifying unique enzyme sequences, and refactoring these unique enzyme variants through LanzaTech’s engineering platform. Resulted in over 10x improvement in acetone production from gas. (4) Continuous process (stability): Identified bottleneck through detailed omics studies, addressed by integration of the acetone pathway on the chromosome. (5) Novel process to scale up: Addressed by demonstrating stable acetone production in an 80-L pilot reactor, with acetone productivity and selectivity comparable to those observed under the same conditions in 2-L reactors. LanzaTech has demonstrated stable acetone production for over 7 days at commercial target rate and selectivity in a 2-L reactor and have piloted the process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Scaling of silicon nanoparticle growth in low temperature flowing plasmas

Low temperature plasmas are an emerging method to synthesize high quality nanoparticles (NPs). An established and successful technique to produce NPs is using a capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) in cylindrical geometry. Although a robust synthesis technique, optimizing or specifying NP properties using CCPs, is challenging. In this paper, results from a computational investigation for the growth of silicon NPs in flowing inductively coupled plasmas (ICPs) using Ar/SiH 4 gas mixtures of up to a few Torr are discussed. ICPs produce more locally constrained and quiescent plasma potentials. These positive plasma potentials produce an electrostatic trap for negatively charged NPs, which can significantly extend the residence time of NPs in the plasma, which in turn provides a controllable period for particle growth. The computational platforms used in this study consist of a two-dimensional plasma hydrodynamics model, a three-dimensional nanoparticle growth and trajectory tracking model, and a molecular dynamics simulation for deriving reactive sticking coefficients of silane radicals on Si NPs. Trends for the nanoparticle growth as a function of SiH 4 inlet fraction, gas residence time, energy deposition per particle, pressure, and reactor diameter are discussed. The general path for particle synthesis is the trapping of small NPs in the positive electrostatic potential, followed by entrainment in the gas flow upon reaching a critical particle size. Optimizing or controlling NP synthesis then depends on the spatial distribution of plasma potential, the density of growth species, and the relative time that particles spend in the electrostatic trap and flowing through higher densities of growth species upon leaving the trap.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A co-kurtosis PCA based dimensionality reduction with nonlinear reconstruction using neural networks

For turbulent reacting flow systems, identification of low-dimensional representations of the thermo-chemical state space is vitally important, primarily to significantly reduce the computational cost of device-scale simulations. Principal component analysis (PCA), and its variants, are a widely employed class of methods. Recently, an alternative technique that focuses on higher-order statistical interactions, co-kurtosis PCA (CoK-PCA), has been shown to effectively provide a low-dimensional representation by capturing the stiff chemical dynamics associated with spatiotemporally localized reaction zones. While its effectiveness has only been demonstrated based on a priori analyses with linear reconstruction, in this work, we employ nonlinear techniques to reconstruct the full thermo-chemical state and evaluate the efficacy of CoK-PCA compared to PCA. Specifically, we combine a CoK-PCA-/PCA-based dimensionality reduction (encoding) with an artificial neural network (ANN) based reconstruction (decoding) and examine, a priori, the reconstruction errors of the thermo-chemical state. In addition, we evaluate the errors in species production rates and heat release rates, which are nonlinear functions of the reconstructed state, as a measure of the overall accuracy of the dimensionality reduction technique. We employ four datasets to assess CoK-PCA/PCA coupled with ANN-based reconstruction: zero-dimensional (homogeneous) reactor for autoignition of an ethylene/air mixture that has conventional single-stage ignition kinetics, a dimethyl ether (DME)/air mixture which has two-stage (low and high temperature) ignition kinetics, a one-dimensional freely propagating premixed ethylene/air laminar flame, and a two-dimensional dataset representing turbulent autoignition of ethanol in a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine. Finally, results from the analyses demonstrate the robustness of the CoK-PCA based low-dimensional manifold with ANN reconstruction in accurately capturing the data, specifically from the reaction zones.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Design and Modeling of Vacuum Pumping for Steady-State Pellet Fueling Systems

We report that future long-pulse magnetic confinement fusion reactors will require density and isotopic mixture control using steady-state repeating pellet injectors. For high-energy density burning plasmas, pellet velocities of 1 km/s and above will be required for sufficient plasma penetration to achieve high fueling efficiency. Currently, steady-state repeating injection systems utilize cryogenic extruder systems to produce an extrusion of solid deuterium or deuterium-tritium. In repeating light gas gun injectors, the solid extrusion is cut and simultaneously loaded into a barrel. Once loaded, a fast operating gas valve delivers a high pressure burst of gas to accelerate the pellet down the barrel and into the machine. This process takes ~10 ms to achieve. Adequate gas pumping of the extruder exhaust and injection line propellant gas collection chambers is necessary for optimal operation of the pellet fueling system. Excess solid from the extruder sublimates in an exhaust chamber. The gas pressure in the extruder exhaust chamber must remain low to maintain low heating loads on the cooling mechanism (cryorefrigerators or liquid helium flow) and to reduce thermal conduction to the extrusion. Pumping the injection line chambers is necessary to limit propellant gas flow into the machine. A numerical simulation code was created to predict temporal pumping performance for these repeating pellet injection systems. Lastly, this paper outlines the methods and assumptions used to create this model and compares results to the pellet injection system currently employed on DIII-D, the steady-state pellet injection system planned for the Wendelstein 7-X, and a brief analysis of the ITER conceptual pellet fueling system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characterization of dissolved organic matter in landfill leachate during the combined treatment process of air stripping, Fenton, SBR and coagulation

Highlights: • DOM fractions spectra analysis during the whole treatment process. • Efficient method was achieved to remove organic matters in landfill leachate. • Molecular weight distribution and fractions were discussed. - Abstract: A combined treatment process of air stripping + Fenton + sequencing batch reactor (SBR)+ coagulation was performed to remove the pollutants in landfill leachate. Molecular weight (MW) distribution and fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were discussed to study the characteristics. The experiment showed that the removal rate of chemical oxygen demand (COD), five day biological oxygen demand (BOD{sub 5}) and ammonia nitrogen (NH{sub 3}−N) by the combined process were 92.8%, 87.8% and 98.0%, respectively. Humic acid (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) were the main fractions in raw leachate with 81.8% of the total COD concentration, while hydrophilic organic matter (HyI) was the dominant fraction in the final effluent of the combined process with 63.5% of the total COD concentration. After the combined treatment process, the removal rate of DOM and fractions HA, FA, HyI were 91.9%, 97.1%, 95.8% and 71.7%, respectively. Organic matters of MW < 2 k and MW > 100 k were removed with 90.5% and 97.9% COD concentration after the treatment. The ultraviolet–visible spectra (UV–vis), Fourier transform infrared spectra (FTIR) and three-dimensional excitation-emission matrices spectra (EEMs) indicated that benzene materials and phenol compounds were preferentially removed in air stripping. High MW matters, aromatic rings, conjugated moieties and some functional groups were mainly removed by Fenton. While small MW fractions, carboxylic acids, alcohols and protein-like materials were preferentially biodegraded via SBR. Fulvic-like and humic-like materials were mainly destroyed via Fenton oxidation and coagulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Design Considerations for the Implementation of a High-Field-Side Transient CHI System on QUEST

Transient coaxial helicity injection (T-CHI), a method first developed on the small helicity injected torus (HIT-II) experiment and then validated on the much larger National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) device, is a method to initiate an inductive-like tokamak plasma discharge without reliance on the central solenoid. A CHI discharge is initiated by driving current along magnetic flux that connects the inner and outer divertor plates on one end of the tokamak. To permit this, on both HIT-II and NSTX, toroidal ceramic insulators were used to electrically separate the inner and outer vessel components. The use of such large toroidal vacuum insulators may not be easy to implement in reactors. To address this issue, the Q-shu University experiments with steady-state spherical tokamak (ST) (QUEST) is developing a reactor-relevant CHI configuration in which one of the divertor plates is electrically insulated from the rest of the vessel. The first application of T-CHI on QUEST biased the CHI electrode to the outer vessel. While the CHI discharges could be easily generated, it was found that as the discharge filled the vessel, the separation distance between the injector magnetic flux footprints widened, a condition that is not favorable for the generation of closed flux surfaces. Biasing the electrode to the inner wall is a configuration similar to that used on NSTX and HIT-II, but initial testing in this configuration has proved to be challenging. The design described here overcomes the present limitation by locating the CHI electrode much closer to the CHI injector flux coil and using an NSTX-like gas injection manifold to enable high-field-side T-CHI startup on QUEST. Finally, the concepts described in this article should also benefit the future implementation of T-CHI systems in other tokamaks and spherical tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Control of core–shell nanoparticles properties through plasma synthesis: a computational study

The improved properties of core–shell nanoparticles (CSNPs) over homogeneous nanoparticles (NPs) have expanded and diversified the applications of these nanomaterials. However, controlling the properties of CSNPs can be a challenging task. Low temperature plasmas have proven to be an effective method of producing NPs with uniform size and morphology, and high yield. That said, NP transport and growth dynamics are sensitive to LTP properties. We report on a computational investigation of the evolution of Ge–Si CSNP properties as a function of operating conditions through the modeling of a flowing, two-zone inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor. Ar/GeH 4 and Ar/SiH 4 gas mixtures were supplied to separate plasma zones at a pressure of 1 Torr to promote growth of Ge cores and Si shells. The negatively charged CSNPs are trapped electrostatically in the vicinity of the antennas where the plasma is generated and where the majority of particle growth occurs. Particles that grow to a critical size are then de-trapped by fluid drag due to neutral gas flow. A two-dimensional hybrid plasma model coupled with a three-dimensional kinetic NP transport model were utilized to resolve plasma chemistry and NP growth processes that take place on distinct timescales. The trends in CSNP properties and trapping mechanisms associated with flow rate, applied ICP power and inlet precursor fraction are discussed. While the spatial distribution of plasma produced radical species can have significant impact on the NP growth process, the NP transport dynamics are what ultimately dictates the growth environment that is unique to each particle and so determines their final dimension and composition. The key to optimizing reactor conditions involves controlling the spatial density of growth species and plasma profile as a means to tailor particle trapping dynamics suitable to produce CSNPs for a specific application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

JASMINE: a fuel rod thermal-mechanical performance's code

JASMINE, which is developed by China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC), is a code for calculating thermal-mechanical response of PWR fuel rods. The code models many physical phenomena, including heat conduction through the fuel and cladding to the coolant, cladding elastic and plastic deformation, fuel elastic deformation, fuel swelling and densification,fuel-cladding mechanical interaction, fission gas release from the fuel, rod internal pressure, cladding oxidation and hydriding. Just as most fuel rod codes, JASMINE, which is a quasi-two dimensional code, includes a thermal module, a mechanical module, a fission gas release (FGR) module, and an internal pressure module. For thermal module, the time dependent thermal conduction equation of axisymmetric cylindrical geometry, Halden's fuel thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity integration method and multi-dimension Newton-Raphson procedure are used; for the mechanical module, generalized plane strain hypothesis, cladding-fuel axial lockup model, cladding thermal stress and transfer matrix method are applied; for fission gas release module, the time dependent diffusion equation for a spherical grain, Speight-Turnbull grain surface boundary condition, and Forsberg-Massih's method are used; for the internal pressure module, the ideal gas state equation is used. The code, which is on validation stage, will be used for fuel rod design of nuclear power plants in China in a near future. So far, the preliminary validation process for pellet centerline temperature and fission gas release, which is based on fuel rod test data in FUMEX-III project, has finished. According to the validation results, JASMINE has the ability to reasonably predicts fuel behavior and performance in-pile. JASMINE has good prediction in fuel temperature, and good prediction on FGR as a whole. However, for FGR in the range 1% to 15%, JASMINE over-predicts FGR; for other range, JASMINE underestimates FGR. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Fast Reactor Irradiation Experiment Design in the ATR

Modern modeling techniques were used to investigate a proposed method for fast neutron irradiations in an existing thermal-spectrum reactor, the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). This method builds upon pre-existing ideas, where fast flux is increased by surrounding the specimens with fissionable “booster fuel” but diverges from historical approaches by using an already developed fuel element design used in the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) as the booster fuel while leveraging modern 3-D modeling and simulation techniques. Design evaluations and neutronics simulations were performed to evaluate the performance of a BR2 fuel element irradiated in an ATR flux trap with test pins in the central channel of the BR2 fuel element. These efforts have yielded promising results. Adding a BR2 fuel element in the northeast (NE) flux trap of ATR was predicted to result in a 150% increase to the incident fast neutron flux with a fast (>0.1 MeV) to thermal (<0.625 eV) neutron flux ratio ranging from approximately 50 to 150, dependent on the material used for thermal neutron filtering and volume of moderator within the central channel of the BR2 element. The predicted annual fast neutron fluence (>0.1 MeV) ranges from 7.9 × 1021 to 9.1 × 1021 n/cm2. Given the relatively large fast to thermal neutron flux ratio, the calculated radial power profiles within 4.3 mm outer diameter U10Zr fueled specimens irradiated within the BR2 booster fuel element are adequate representations of those within fast neutron reactors. The predicted radial power profiles are not flat, but they are more prototypic than those seen in advanced fuels tests which began in ATR in 2003. Another distinct advantage of this experiment design is that full-scale test pins can be irradiated to augment the ongoing series of reduced scale advanced fuels tests. The proposed experiment design irradiated within a BR2 fuel element in a flux trap of ATR offers an improved alternative to the current testing of advanced reactor fuels in ATR. Selected results from this design evaluation are presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Initial demonstration of automated fuel performance modeling with 1977 EBR-II metallic fuel pins using BISON code with FIPD and IMIS databases

Using the BISON fuel performance code, simulations were conducted using an automated process to read initial and operating conditions from the Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) and Integral Fast Reactor materials information system (IMIS) database, which contains metallic fuel data from the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II). This work demonstrates use of an integrated framework to access the vast majority of EBR-II experimental fuel pin data to support rapid development of fuel performance models for next-generation metallic fuel systems. With this capability, validation for fuel qualification can be performed rapidly. Between IMIS and FIPD, there is enough information to conduct 1977 unique EBR-II metallic fuel pin histories from 24 different experiments, at varying levels of detail between the two databases. Each of these histories includes a high-resolution power history, flux history, coolant channel flow rates, and coolant channel temperatures. Fission gas release (FGR), cumulative damage fraction (CDF), fuel axial swelling, cladding profilometry, and burnup were all simulated in BISON. The results were compared to post-irradiation examination (PIE) results for the initial demonstration of automated BISON modeling. BISON simulations conducted with IMIS and FIPD were in rough agreement with PIE measurements and calculations. Cladding profilometry, FGR, and fuel axial swelling were found to be in rough agreement with PIE measurements, depending on the physics used within the BISON input files. Here, the mechanical contact solver chosen was found to significantly impact axial fuel swelling and cladding strain predictions. CDF values were assessed to see whether pin failure may have been predicted (CDF ≥ 1). This work suggests that continued development of an automated tool for BISON should focus on inclusion of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) experimental data for a larger database for metallic fuel, improved physical models to better capture fuel performance, such as fuel-cladding interactions, and a more detailed comparison with available PIE data to further the BISON model development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Expanded Validation of Uranium Systems with the KENO Monte Carlo Codes and SCALE 6.2.4

The development of accident-tolerant fuel and advanced reactors fueled with high-assay low-enriched uranium has created an increased focus on systems with uranium enrichments between 5 and 20 wt % 235 U. SCALE criticality safety validation reports generated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory contain very few benchmark experiments in this range. The work presented herein is an initial investigation of expanded validation of the entire range of enrichments for uranium-fueled systems, including consideration of over 300 newly developed KENO models. The vast majority of the new models are between 4.4 wt % and 37.5 wt % enrichment and include a variety of thermal, intermediate, and mixed neutron spectra. This work finds no strong evidence of an enrichment-dependent bias, but there are indications of a spectrum-dependent bias. There are, however, only a limited number of independent experiments included at this time to distinguish intermediate enrichment effects from intermediate spectrum effects. Further work in this area is ongoing for intermediate enrichment systems. In the long run, the addition of these models to the Verified, Archived Library and Inputs and Data is planned, as funding and staff availability allow.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Joint Determination of Reactor Antineutrino Spectra from U 235 and Pu 239 Fission by Daya Bay and PROSPECT

A joint determination of the reactor antineutrino spectra resulting from the fission of 235U and 239Pu has been carried out by the Daya Bay and PROSPECT collaborations. This Letter reports the level of consistency of 235U spectrum measurements from the two experiments and presents new results from a joint analysis of both data sets. The measurements are found to be consistent. The combined analysis reduces the degeneracy between the dominant 235U and 239Pu isotopes and improves the uncertainty of the 235U spectral shape to about 3%. The 235U and 239Pu antineutrino energy spectra are unfolded from the jointly deconvolved reactor spectra using the Wiener-SVD unfolding method, providing a data-based reference for other reactor antineutrino experiments and other applications. This is the first measurement of the 235U and 239Pu spectra based on the combination of experiments at low- and highly enriched uranium reactors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Demonstration of low-density, high-performance operation of sustained spheromaks and favorable scalability toward compact, low-cost fusion power plants (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project worked to advance the technical viability of a novel method for efficiently sustaining stable, high-performance spheromak plasma configurations to serve as the basis of compact, low-cost fusion power plants. In particular, our group worked to improve the method of Steady Inductive Helicity Injection (SIHI) with Imposed-Dynamo Current Drive (IDCD) for spheromak plasma sustainment. Prior to this project demonstrations of this plasma sustainment technology have achieved plasma performance consistent with entry milestone 3 of the BETHE FOA. Research and development (R&D) activities for this project were focused on increasing plasma performance toward a level consistent with exit milestone 4. To do this the PI and his group worked to increase the performance of sustained spheromaks produced in an existing experimental prototype (HIT-SIU) while improving confidence in projections to and design of future, higher performance devices through three primary R&D activities: 1) Improved control over the density of plasma in the device throughout a discharge to provide a pathway for demonstration of spheromaks Ohmically heating to the Mercier beta limit via: a. Fueling the device directly with plasma through the installation of pre-ionized source on the injectors b. Optimization of electrical current waveforms in the driver circuits to enable low-density plasma formation with a lower fueling rate 2) Computational demonstration of a validated, realistic injector circuit coupled to a dynamic plasma model capable of use as a design tool for SIHI drivers and associated circuits for new experimental design points on the pathway to commercial reactors. The improvements in plasma performance achieved during research activity 1), and the computational projections performed in research activity 2) increased the technological readiness level (TRL) of this fusion energy concept toward a level sufficient to attract early-stage private investment and/or other forms of follow-on investment to pursue required R&D activities required for the eventual fusion power plants based on this novel technical approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗

Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering

Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. In this work, we present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ~40 meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses > 500 meV could be measured within ≈5 meV. Using only β decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗