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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,549 records · Page 86
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Solar Electric Propulsion Stage design

This paper summarizes the analyses and design studies performed for the Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS). Mission analysis results were used to establish general design requirements. A performance sensitivity analysis was then used to define an operational power level of 21 kW for accomplishing a broad range of interplanetary and earth-orbital missions. With this base, propulsion system and stage subsystem design analyses were performed to support concept and configuration studies. Design study areas include solar array, thrust subsystem, thermal control, structures, and astrionics. Results are presented primarily for areas not covered by more specific technical papers (i.e., thrust subsystem, solar array, design requirements and configuration studies).

Masek, T. D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Characterization of iron-doped lithium niobate for holographic storage applications

A comprehensive characterization of chemical and holographic properties of eight systematically chosen Fe:LiNbO3 crystals is performed in order to determine optimum performance of the crystals in holographic storage and display applications. The discussion covers determination of Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) ion concentrations in Fe:LiNbO3 system from optical absorption and EPR measurements; establishment of the relation between the photorefractive sensitivity of Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) concentrations; study of the spectral dependence, the effect of oxygen annealing, and of other impurities on the photorefractive sensitivity; analysis of the diffraction efficiency curves for different crystals and corresponding sensitivities with the dynamic theory of hologram formation; and determination of the bulk photovoltaic fields as a function of Fe(2+) concentrations. In addition to the absolute Fe(2+) concentration, the relative concentrations of Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) ions are also important in determining the photorefractive sensitivity. There exists an optimal set of crystal characteristics for which the photorefractive sensitivity is most favorable.

Shah, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Shape optimization of three-dimensional stamped and solid automotive components

The shape optimization of realistic, 3-D automotive components is discussed. The integration of the major parts of the total process: modeling, mesh generation, finite element and sensitivity analysis, and optimization are stressed. Stamped components and solid components are treated separately. For stamped parts a highly automated capability was developed. The problem description is based upon a parameterized boundary design element concept for the definition of the geometry. Automatic triangulation and adaptive mesh refinement are used to provide an automated analysis capability which requires only boundary data and takes into account sensitivity of the solution accuracy to boundary shape. For solid components a general extension of the 2-D boundary design element concept has not been achieved. In this case, the parameterized surface shape is provided using a generic modeling concept based upon isoparametric mapping patches which also serves as the mesh generator. Emphasis is placed upon the coupling of optimization with a commercially available finite element program. To do this it is necessary to modularize the program architecture and obtain shape design sensitivities using the material derivative approach so that only boundary solution data is needed.

Botkin, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dual Extended Kalman Filter for the Identification of Time-Varying Human Manual Control Behavior

A Dual Extended Kalman Filter was implemented for the identification of time-varying human manual control behavior. Two filters that run concurrently were used, a state filter that estimates the equalization dynamics, and a parameter filter that estimates the neuromuscular parameters and time delay. Time-varying parameters were modeled as a random walk. The filter successfully estimated time-varying human control behavior in both simulated and experimental data. Simple guidelines are proposed for the tuning of the process and measurement covariance matrices and the initial parameter estimates. The tuning was performed on simulation data, and when applied on experimental data, only an increase in measurement process noise power was required in order for the filter to converge and estimate all parameters. A sensitivity analysis to initial parameter estimates showed that the filter is more sensitive to poor initial choices of neuromuscular parameters than equalization parameters, and bad choices for initial parameters can result in divergence, slow convergence, or parameter estimates that do not have a real physical interpretation. The promising results when applied to experimental data, together with its simple tuning and low dimension of the state-space, make the use of the Dual Extended Kalman Filter a viable option for identifying time-varying human control parameters in manual tracking tasks, which could be used in real-time human state monitoring and adaptive human-vehicle haptic interfaces.

manual control↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the uncertainties in velocity measurements with triple hot-wire probes

A detailed computerized sensitivity analysis of the triple hot-wire equations has been performed in order to delineate the uncertainties associated with measurements of the velocity components. Absolute and relative uncertainties for the instantaneous hot-wire outputs are calculated as functions of roll and pitch angles, based on a constant probability combination of the uncertainties in the inputs. From the results, it is concluded that the small inherent difficulties associated with the triple hot-wire data do not reflect artifacts introduced by the data processing. Fixed errors present in the V and W channels of the output are due to the nonzero measuring volume of the triple wire probe, and are entirely predictable.

Frota, M. N.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerodynamic Sensitivities over Separable Shape Tensors

Here, we present a comprehensive aerodynamic sensitivity analysis of airfoil parameterization informed by separable shape tensors. This parameterization approach uniquely benefits the design process by isolating various well-studied shape characteristics, such as airfoil thickness, and providing a well-regulated low-dimensional parameter domain for aerodynamic designs. Exploring the aerodynamic sensitivities of this novel parameterization can provide valuable insights for more robust designs and future manufacturing efforts. We construct a data-driven parameter space of airfoils using principal geodesic analysis of separable shape tensors informed by a curated database containing almost 20,000 suitable engineering airfoils. Analyzing the shape reconstruction error and the maximum mean discrepancy between joint distributions of aerodynamic quantities, we study the dimensionality of the learned parameter space. This simple numerical experiment demonstrates a dramatic dimension reduction that retains design effectiveness and promotes regularity of the shape representations. Finally, we generate new airfoils and use the HAM2D Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes solver to predict lift, drag, and moment coefficients. We compute multiple sensitivity metrics to quantify and assert the consistency of parameter influence on the aerodynamic quantities. We also explore low-dimensional polynomial ridge approximations to motivate physical intuitions and offer explanations of the approximated sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1989

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Garland, Jay L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen and water interactions with CrMnFeCoNi alloy from density functional theory calculations

High entropy alloys (HEAs) are a promising class of materials with remarkable mechanical and catalytic properties. Among these, the quinary CrMnFeCoNi alloy (also called “Cantor alloy”) has attracted considerable attention given its thermodynamic stability and remarkable mechanical properties under different temperatures. Given that various degradation mechanisms involve multiple contaminants, such as hydrogen and water in hydrogen embrittlement and surface poisoning, respectively, understanding their interactions with the Cantor alloy is critical for its practical applications as structural, nuclear, or hydrogen storage material. In this work, we perform first-principles calculations based on Density Functional Theory (DFT) to investigate such interactions when considering various microstructures, including bulk materials and those containing certain defects, such as grain boundaries, stacking faults, and vacancies. We also employ Global Sensitivity Analysis to identify the importance of different factors in the stability of the impurities. We find that the accuracy of the H formation energy is significantly affected by spin polarization and chemical short-range order. The study also identifies a strong tendency for hydrogen interstitials to segregate to Σ5(210)/[001] symmetric tilt grain boundary, even when H concentrations are high, suggesting that a certain type of grain boundaries acts as H sinks within the alloy. Further, this result is reinforced by the low formation energy of vacancy-hydrogen complexes, which can contain multiple hydrogen atoms. Finally, the surface reactivity analysis reveals that the adsorption energy of oxygen and hydroxyl groups is highly sensitive to the specific metal atom involved in the binding, with a clear preference for chromium atoms, which could have implications for the alloy’s oxidation and corrosion behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

mvBayesR

SAND2025-11559O The mvBayesR tool performs multivariate Bayesian analysis on generic data. It includes tools for regression modeling, diagnosis, basis decomposition, sensitivity analysis, and visualization. The tool compiles state-of-the-art methodology into one easy-to-use package. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2025

mvBayesPy

SAND2025-11476O The mvBayesPy tool is a Python package that performs multivariate Bayesian analysis on generic data. It includes tools for regression modeling, diagnosis, basis decomposition, sensitivity analysis and visualization. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multiscale Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Fuel Performance

In this project, we will address the challenges associated with constructing high fidelity multiscale models of nuclear fuel performance. We (*) propose a novel approach for coupling mesoscale and macroscale models, (*) devise efficient numerical methods for simulating the coupled system, and (*) devise and analyze effective numerical approaches for error and uncertainty quantification for the coupled multiscale system. As an integral part of the project, we will carry out analysis of the effects of upscaling and downscaling, investigate efficient methods for stochastic sensitivity analysis of the individual macroscale and mesoscale models, and carry out a posteriori error analysis for computed results. We will pursue development and implementation of solutions in software used at Idaho National Laboratories on models of interest to the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development and Demonstration of an In-Situ Tritium Scavenger

The objective of this project was to use an inherent feature of salt-cooled reactors towards the capture and removal of tritium from the primary coolant system: the presence of the graphite moderator. The fuel elements fluoride-salt cooled high-temperature (FHR) reactors consist of a graphite matrix that encapsulates TRISO fuel particles, and the total fuel element surface area of Mark I PB-FHR is 7780 m 2 . Therefore the FHR fuel inherently provides removable graphite of high surface area. The goal of this project was to understand the transport of tritium across the salt-graphite interface. The following was achieved: 1. Electrochemical techniques were demonstrated for studying the entry, diffusion, and trapping of hydrogen isotopes in graphite. 2. Electrochemical techniques were used to demonstrate the relationship between galvanic corrosion between graphite and stainless steel 316 and hydrogen uptake in graphite. 3. Electrochemical techniques were demonstrated for studying the dissolution and diffusion of hydrogen isotopes in molten FLiBe. 4. Thermodynamic reference electrodes were tested for FLiBe and FLiNaK. 5. Electrochemical techniques were demonstrated as an in-salt hydrogen thermal desorption measurement, which had previously only been achieved in gas environments. 6. FLiBe exposure of graphite lead to graphite fluorination and an increase of defects, which indicate an increase of reactive carbon sites available for tritium uptake. 7. TRIDENT modeling was used to perform sensitivity analysis of FHR design parameters on tritium uptake fraction in graphite, showing high sensitivity to tritium diffusivity and solubility. 8. A cross-cutting effort with another NEUP-funded project was initiated for application of the SAM mass-transport module to system-scale tritium modeling.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Strack, William C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-entity electrochemistry at confined sensing interfaces

Measurements at the single-entity level provide more precise diagnosis and understanding of basic biological and chemical processes. Recent advances in the chemical measurement provide a means for ultra-sensitive analysis. Confining the single analyte and electrons near the sensing interface can greatly enhance the sensitivity and selectivity. In this work, we summarize the recent progress in single-entity electrochemistry of single molecules, single particles, single cells and even brain analysis. The benefits of confining these entities to a compatible size sensing interface are exemplified. Finally, the opportunities and challenges of single entity electrochemistry are addressed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗