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Effects of Composition and Oxidation States on the Structures of Chromium-Containing Sodium Silicate Glasses: Molecular Dynamics Simulations using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Chromium represents a significant challenge for the vitrification of high-level nuclear waste into silicate and borosilicate glasses due to its low solubility and variable oxidation states, which can limit the waste loading due to promotion of crystallization or phase separation during processing. In this study, we modeled chromium containing silicate glasses using molecular dynamics simulations with three machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), MACE, CHGNet, and PFP were employed, to gain insights on glass composition and oxidation states on the structures of these glasses. One of the goals is to evaluate their ability of these MLIPs to accurately represent the general structure of silicate glasses and chromium local environments as a function of chromium oxidation states. Density Functional Theory (DFT) based calculations and experimental data such as neutron structure factors were used to validate the structural models. It was found that the foundation models of all three MLIPs are able to reproduce general structural features of the sodium silicate glass structure consistent with experimental and DFT data, but only CHGNet and PFP can accurately capture the oxidation states and local environment of chromium: tetrahedral for Cr6+ and octahedral for Cr3+. Furthermore, we studied the effect of varying Cr3+/ Cr6+ (Cr3+/Crtotal) ratio and total chromium content using PFP. Our results show that Cr6+ enhances network polymerization by reducing non-bridging oxygens through Na? charge compensation required due to the formation of chromate (CrO42-) species, while Cr³? acts as a network modifier that disrupts connectivity. System size effects on the structural characteristics and chromium environments were also tested using the PFP potential. This work highlights the importance of careful validation on the precision, transferability, and potential of MLIPs for modeling glasses containing transition metal elements that can exist in multiple oxidation states. It is also encouraging to see the foundational models are all three MLFFs are able to reproduce the basic sodium silicate glass structures, while suggesting additional training or refining is needed to improve the description of more complex systems containing transition metals.

Puga, Christina L.

Solvent-Mediated Control of Nanocellulose Dispersion: An Integrated Computational and Experimental Investigation

Fibrillated cellulose derived from forestry feedstocks represents a renewable and high-strength materials platform for circular bioeconomies. However, its practical implementation is hindered by the irreversible aggregation of nanocellulose architectures, including cellulose nanofibers (CNFs). Solvent-based dispersion offers a simple and practical route to prevent CNF aggregation. Here, in this work, we integrate classical and enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with experimental suspension rheology and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to elucidate how solvent environments tune CNF–CNF interactions and dispersion stability. CNF–CNF contact free energies computed from MD simulations reveal reduced aggregation in acetone/water, γ-valerolactone (GVL)/water, and tetrahydrofuran (THF)/water and pure acetone compared with pure water, reflecting stronger CNF-solvent relative to inter-CNF interactions. Correspondingly, CNF-solvent suspensions in these solvent systems exhibit stronger inter-fibril network structures and enhanced recovery compared to water, indicating improved CNF-solvent affinity. Liquid cell AFM imaging in acetone–water mixtures and in pure acetone further confirm the presence of well-dispersed CNFs. By combining multiscale computation with targeted experiments, this study establishes a rational framework for solvent design to achieve stable nanocellulose dispersions for high-strength biobased materials and efficient bioenergy conversion.

cellulose

Comparing the fluorination of Pb+ and Po+: insights into p-block relativistic effects for superheavy elements

It is expected that the chemical properties of the heaviest of the superheavy elements (SHEs, = 113 – 118) do not align with what is suggested by their current positions on the periodic table. Specifically, the onset of significant relativistic effects, including increased spin–orbit splitting of the p-orbitals may lead to enhanced stability of low-oxidation states. Notably, it is predicted that flerovium ( = 114) may exhibit pseudo-noble gas behavior from a electron configuration that acts as an ‘inert pair’. Even though it is expected that the – splitting becomes pronounced toward the end of the p-block’s sixth row, there is currently limited experimental evidence to confirm its extent or impact. Here, the production of gas-phase lead ( = 82) and polonium ( = 84) fluoride cations (PbF and PoF ) were compared to elucidate differences in accessible oxidation states. The PoF and PbF species were produced and identified with the FIONA spectrometer at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 88-Inch Cylctron Facility. Polonium showed notably different fluorination chemistry than lead, producing PoF and PoF as primary products compared to lead’s PbF and PbF . The distribution of PoF products observed offer insights as to the role of spin–orbit splitting for polonium. Similar studies of superheavy elements would elucidate the accessibility of their low-oxidation states as well as to inform chemical predictions for eighth-row elements not yet discovered.

Pore, Jennifer L [Nuclear Science Division, Lawren

Dimensional Reduction Guides Electronic Structure Evolution in the A n Cu 4–n SnS 4 Semiconductor Series

The search for new functional materials with tunable properties remains a central challenge in chemistry, particularly for applications in energy and electronics. In this work, we present a framework for predictive crystal design in alkali metal chalcogenides that enables controlled dimensional reduction of a parent covalent motif, yielding a broad range of electronic structures, which systematically evolve from one parent to the other. We present 11 new members of the A n Cu 4–n SnS 4 family (A = alkali metal; n = 0–4), which reduce the three-dimensional (3D) covalent network of Cu 4 SnS 4 into various 3D, 2D, 1D, and 0D [Cu 4–n SnS 4 ] n− motifs through the substitution of Cu with alkali metals of various radii. The end members of the family set the range in achievable band gaps at 0.99 eV for fully covalent Cu 4 SnS 4 (n = 0) and 3.38 eV for K 4 SnS 4 (n = 4) with 0D [SnS 4 ] n− tetrahedra. As the dimensionality of [Cu 4–n SnS 4 ] n− systematically reduces within A n Cu 4–n SnS 4 (n = 1–3), a stepwise increase in band gap energy occurs through a gradual decrease in the energy of the valence band maximum and an increase in the conduction band minimum, with an increase in the effective masses of charge carriers. Furthermore, irrespective of the alkali metal, the thermal stability decreases with decreasing [Cu 4–n SnS 4 ] n− dimensionality within the quaternary members. Most importantly, we demonstrate that predictable crystal structure and property evolution for a given composition space is possible by deriving a general formula based on substituting the covalent metals of a parent structure with alkali metals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Phonon-mediated ultrafast dynamics in self-assembled monolayers of 4-mercaptobenzoic acid on gold

Non-equilibrium interactions between plasmonic metals and adsorbed molecules lie at the heart of emerging applications such as plasmonic photocatalysis and sensing, though the ultrafast charge and energy transfer mechanisms arising from these interactions are not well understood. Herein, we investigate the ultrafast dynamics of Au nano-islands tethered with a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) of electron-withdrawing 4-mercaptobenzoic acid (4MBA) molecules. Ultrafast UV-visible transient absorption spectroscopy following excitation of the interband transition in Au reveals three well-known, characteristic time constants that quantify electron–electron (el–el), electron–phonon (el–ph) and phonon–phonon (ph–ph) scattering lifetimes. When comparing the dynamics of bare Au and 4MBA-Au, we find that the el–ph and ph–ph scattering lifetimes are notably longer in 4MBA-Au. Density functional perturbation theory calculations ascribe the elongation in el–ph lifetimes in 4MBA-Au to the significant coupling of acoustic phonon modes of Au with certain molecular vibrations of 4MBA, leading to decreased spatial overlap between carrier electronic states and the acoustic modes. We speculate that the elongation of ph–ph scattering lifetimes in 4MBA-Au arises due to poor thermal conductivity of the SAM which disrupts efficient energy dissipation from Au to the environment, thus slowing down the thermalization of phonons. This work provides a glimpse into how molecular adsorbates modify the charge carrier and phonon dynamics of Au and sets the stage for further systematic exploration of plasmonic metal–molecule interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

RADAI: A Large-Scale Realistic Dataset for Radiation Detection Algorithm Development

Open, realistic datasets are essential for developing and benchmarking radiation detection algorithms, yet they remain scarce. The Radiological Anomaly Detection and Identification (RADAI) project was develop to create datasets that meet the training and testing needs for sophisticated radiation detection algorithms. The RADAI dataset is a large-scale synthetic resource that integrates high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations with realistic urban scenarios to capture both background variability and source signatures. RADAI models construction-material NORM, people and vehicles, urban clutter, and dynamic environmental effects such as cosmic-ray and rain-induced transients, and they provide list-mode detector data with motion and response modeling suitable for algorithm training and evaluation. The RADAI project resulted in three publicly-released complementary datasets together with an online scoring portal for standardized performance assessment and an open software toolkit that supports data access, augmentation, model development, and evaluation. These resources enable reproducible comparisons across methods and promote rigorous studies at the scale required by contemporary machine learning. By grounding algorithm development in realistic, well-documented conditions, RADAI supports progress toward more robust detection, identification, and localization in complex urban environments.

Ghawaly, James M. [Division of Computer Science an

Disorder-induced spin-cluster magnetism in a doped kagome spin liquid candidate

The search for new quantum spin liquid materials relies on systems with strong frustration such as spins on an ideal kagome lattice. However, lattice imperfections can have substantial effects which are as yet not well understood. In recent work, the two-dimensional kagome system YCu 3 ⁢(OH) 6 ⁢[(Cl 𝑥 ⁢Br (1−𝑥) ) 3−𝑦 ⁢(OH) 𝑦 ] has emerged as a leading candidate hosting a Dirac spin liquid which appears to survive at least for 𝑥 < 0.4, associated with alternating-bond-hexagon (ABH) disorder. Here in magnetic samples with 𝑥 = 0.58, 𝑦 = 0.1 we report unusual in-plane ferromagnetic canting (FM) of the in-plane antiferromagnet (AFM), with an unusually wide regime of short-ranged order, and propose theoretical models to explain this behavior. First, we show that Kitaev-type exchanges naturally arise on the kagome lattice to second order in the known Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya exchanges, and that these interactions can produce the unusual in-plane FM canting from antichiral AFM. Second, we propose a phenomenological model of weakly FM-canted spin clusters to describe the short-ranged regime and analyze quantum fluctuations in an ABH toy model to show how ABH disorder can stabilize this regime. Here, the combination of experimental observation and theory suggests that kagome-Kitaev interactions and ABH disorder are necessary for describing the magnetic fluctuations in this family of materials, with potential implications for the proposed proximate spin liquid phase.

Seth, Arnab [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atla

Quantum control of Hubbard excitons

Quantum control of the many-body wavefunction is a central challenge in quantum materials research, as it could yield a precise control knob to manipulate emergent phenomena. Floquet engineering, the coherent dressing of quantum states with periodic non-resonant optical fields, has become an important strategy for quantum control. Most applications to solid-state systems have targeted weakly interacting or single-ion states, leaving the manipulation of many-body wavefunctions largely unexplored. Here, in this work, we use Floquet engineering to achieve quantum control of a strongly correlated Hubbard exciton in the one-dimensional Mott insulator Sr 2 CuO 3 . A nonresonant midinfrared optical field coherently dresses the exciton wavefunction, driving its rotation between bright and dark states. We use resonant third-harmonic generation to quantify ultrafast π/2 rotations on the Bloch sphere spanned by these exciton states. Our work advances the quest towards programmable control of correlated states and exciton-based quantum sensing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Revealing the evolution of order in materials microstructures using multi-modal computer vision

The development of high-performance materials for microelectronics, energy storage, and extreme environments depends on our ability to describe and direct property-defining microstructural order. Our present understanding is typically derived from laborious manual analysis of imaging and spectroscopy data, which is difficult to scale, challenging to reproduce, and lacks the ability to reveal latent associations needed for mechanistic models. Here, we demonstrate a multi-modal machine learning (ML) approach to describe order from electron microscopy analysis of the complex oxide La 1−x Sr x FeO 3 . We construct a hybrid pipeline based on fully and semi-supervised classification, allowing us to evaluate both the characteristics of each data modality and the value each modality adds to the ensemble. We observe distinct differences in the performance of uni- and multi-modal models, from which we draw general lessons in describing crystal order using computer vision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Distributed Mafic Rock Resources for Carbon Mineralization in Arizona

Ex-situ carbon mineralization is a process by which CO2 is reacted with alkaline silicate minerals and rocks to produce stable carbonate materials, which can be used for other industrial processes. Arizona, U.S.A., hosts abundant surficial mafic rocks in three young volcanic fields, Geronimo-San Bernardino, San Francisco, and Springerville, and other distributed locations throughout the state. We created a Mafic Rock Resource Inventory (MRRI) that categorizes geochemical, physical, and textural characteristics of a diverse suite of surficial mafic rock samples and provide a benchmark reaction dataset parameterizing the temperature, pressure, and pH conditions best suited ex-situ mineralization in different rock types. MRRI data is publicly available online via a map-viewer. We establish two reaction condition sets, varied in temperature, pressure, and pH, where crystal-rich and glassy rocks reach maximum reaction extent and different carbonate phases are formed. Systematic ex-situ mineralization experiments on 21 diverse rock types show trends in geochemical, mineralogical, and reactivity behavior and establish maximum effective capture capacity. From this, scoria cones in three Arizona volcanic fields have a ~62 Gt effective CO₂ storage capacity with one of the fields having a ~42 Gt storage capacity in lava flows. Reactivity results have applications to alkaline mafic rock resources exposed globally, including producing additional effective storage capacity estimates and scaled commercialization of mafic rock ex-situ mineralization, should reaction extents be improved through advances in mineralization techniques. MRRI data were used to create a Direct Air Capture to Mineralization (DACM) systems model, technoeconomic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. These documents are presented as three appendices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Divergent trait controls on soluble sugars and starch underlie global strategies of tree carbohydrate storage

Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) stores buffer tree metabolism, osmotic regulation, and defense, thereby mediating tolerance and survival under climate extremes. Yet, the functional and evolutionary determinants of interspecific variation in NSC remain elusive, limiting understanding and prediction of forest carbon allocation and mortality under global change. Here, we present a cross-species synthesis of NSC concentrations across multiple organs for 281 woody species from 102 mixed forest communities worldwide, where we quantified species-specific deviations from community means to disentangle intrinsic trait effects from environmental and methodological variation. We found phylogenetic signals in NSC deviations, with coniferous gymnosperms and evergreen species consistently maintaining lower stem soluble sugars and starch concentrations than co-occurring angiosperms and deciduous species, respectively. A global pattern emerged where greater stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential was associated with declines in the relative concentrations of both sugars and starch. In contrast, xylem hydraulic safety traits showed weak and organ-dependent relationships with NSC concentrations. Sugars increased with photosynthetic capacity and declined with wood density, whereas starch showed the reverse pattern, which aligned with the distinct functional-metabolic roles of sugars and starch. By integrating trait-based ecology with a community-centered framework, our study provides global evidence that stomatal regulation, photosynthetic capacity, specific leaf area, and wood density jointly govern interspecific NSC variation, through contrasting effects on sugars and starch. These are among the most broadly measured traits globally, thus the emergent carbohydrate–trait relationships can have broad applications toward understanding and predicting forest growth and survival under climate change.

tropic system

Integration of ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences for reconstructing the evolutionary history of Galapagos giant tortoises

Genomic data from contemporary and historical samples often need to be coupled for evolutionary reconstructions of multitaxon complexes. However, the genetic data recovered from historical samples may result only in ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences (ulcWGS; <0.15× depth), leading to inaccurate evolutionary inferences given a preponderance of missing data. Using the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation as a study system (Chelonoidis spp., composed of 13 extant and four extinct lineages), we assembled a novel methodological pipeline that removes potential noise introduced by the missing data and enhances the evolutionary signal from ulcWGS samples. We leveraged existing tools for phylogenomic placement (EPA-ng), population genomic structure (smartsnp) and admixture (Admixfrog, NGSadmix) to demonstrate that the evolutionary history of samples can be uncovered with sequencing depths as low as 0.008–0.139×. Importantly, these approaches do not use genotype imputation of the ulcWGS samples, which would require extensive reference datasets. Our application to two cases of extinct lineages of Galapagos giant tortoises, with and without references from the same lineage, demonstrates the general value of the approach. We confirm where the extinct lineages from San Cristóbal and Santa Fe islands fit into the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation, and that these lineages were evolutionarily distinct entities.

ancient DNA

Rapid Assessment of Sulfate Resistance in Mortar and Concrete

Extensive research has been conducted on the sulfate attack of concrete structures; however, the need to adopt the use of more sustainable materials is driving a need for a quicker test method to assess sulfate resistance. This work presents accelerated methods that can reduce the time required for assessing the sulfate resistance of mixtures by 70%. Class F fly ash has historically been used in concrete mixtures to improve sulfate resistance. However, environmental considerations and the evolving energy industry have decreased its availability, requiring the identification of economically viable and environmentally friendly alternatives to fly ash. Another challenge in addressing sulfate attack durability issues in concrete is that the standard sulfate attack test (ASTM C1012) is time-consuming and designed for only standard mortars (not concrete mixtures). To expedite the testing process, accelerated testing methods for both mortar and concrete mixtures were adopted from previous work to further the development of the accelerated tests and to assess the feasibility of testing the sulfate resistance of mortar and concrete mixtures rapidly. This study also established criteria for interpreting sulfate resistance for each of the test methods used in this work. A total of 14 mortar mixtures and four concrete mixtures using two types of Portland cement (Type I and Type I/II) and various supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) were evaluated in this study. The accelerated testing methods significantly reduced the evaluation time from 12 months to 21 days for mortar mixtures and from 6 months to 56 days for concrete mixtures. The proposed interpretation method for mortar accelerated test results showed acceptable consistency with the ACI 318-19 interpretations for ASTM C1012 results. The interpretation methods proposed for the two concrete sulfate attack tests demonstrated excellent consistency with the ASTM C1012 results from mortar mixtures with the same cementitious materials combinations. Metakaolin was shown to improve sulfate resistance for both mortar and concrete mixtures, while silica fume and natural pozzolan had a limited impact. Using 15% metakaolin in mortar or concrete mixtures with Type I/II cement provided the best sulfate resistance.

Chemistry

Semi-Transparent Perovskite Solar Cells in a Stacked Tandem Module: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-19-00810

This project seeks to develop device design, materials composition, and processing tools and parameters to fabricate semi-transparent perovskite solar cells and modules for application in stand-alone products or added to other solar cells in a mechanically stacked tandem configuration. This technology presents significant advanced manufacturing challenges and opportunities in getting to scale, including development of perovskite inks, scalable perovskite and heterojunction deposition and annealing processes, heterojunction composition, transparent electrode composition and deposition process, anti-reflection layer composition and deposition process, and cell to module integration processes. Modification 5: The proposed project seeks to develop device design, materials composition, and processing tools and parameters to fabricate semi-transparent perovskite solar cells and modules for application in stand-alone products or added to other solar cells in a mechanically-stacked tandem configuration. This technology presents significant advanced manufacturing challenges and opportunities in getting to scale, including development of perovskite inks, scalable perovskite and heterojunction deposition and annealing processes, heterojunction composition, transparent electrode composition and deposition process, passivation layers including in module scribes, anti-reflection layer composition and deposition process, and cell to module integration processes. Advanced metrology and characterization will be performed on perovskite films, cells and module. Furthermore, we will examine module or materials recycling for circular economy considerations. Modifcation 6: Gigahertz frequency microwave pump-probe spectroscopies are highly sensitive to thin film semiconductor photoconductivity of individual and stacks of layers that comprise perovskite solar cells. As such, these techniques will be used to qualify reproducibility and quality correlations during the manufacturing process. Modification 7: Mechanical adhesion of top contacts within perovskite modules significantly impacts the durability of the module when exposed to accelerated degradation testing. The adhesion between the perovskite/transport layer interface and the transport layer/top contact interface are both very sensitive small changes in processing. ALD processing conditions of the transport layer will be tuned to optimize the mechanical adhesion within the perovskite module stack.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

SUDA: A SUrface Dust Analyser for Compositional Mapping of the Galilean Moon Europa

Abstract The Surface Dust Analyser (SUDA) is a mass spectrometer onboard the Europa Clipper mission for investigating the surface composition of the Galilean moon Europa. Atmosphereless planetary moons such as the Galilean satellites are wrapped into a ballistic dust exosphere populated by tiny samples from the moon’s surface produced by impacts of fast micrometeoroids. SUDA will measure the composition of such surface ejecta during close flybys of Europa to obtain key chemical signatures for revealing the satellite’s composition such as organic molecules and salts, history, and geological evolution. Because of their ballistic orbits, detected ejecta can be traced back to the surface with a spatial resolution roughly equal to the instantaneous altitude of the spacecraft. SUDA is a Time-Of-Flight (TOF), reflectron-type impact mass spectrometer, optimized for a high mass resolution which only weakly depends on the impact location. The instrument will measure the mass, speed, charge, elemental, molecular, and isotopic composition of impacting grains. The instrument’s small size of$268 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 250 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 171$ 268 mm × 250 mm × 171 $~\mathrm {mm}$ mm , radiation-hard design, and rather large sensitive area of 220 cm 2 matches well the challenging demands of the Clipper mission.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Electron Inversion and Tunneling at Silicon Thermal Oxide Interfaces for Solar-Driven Molecular Catalysis to Syngas

Semiconductor photoelectrodes are regularly coupled to solid-state heterogeneous catalysts to perform solar-driven reduction of CO 2 . Less frequently, molecular catalysts are employed to better control the reactivity toward desired products, yet the development of robust semiconductor/molecule interfaces has proven challenging. Here, we demonstrate that a 2–3 nm thermal oxide layer on Si exhibits stability in aqueous solution, high photovoltage, and a photocurrent density of ∼10 mA/cm 2 for the solar-driven photoelectrochemical reduction of a homogeneous molecular catalyst, producing syngas with an ∼2:1 H 2 to CO ratio. Because of a low defect density, the oxide interface forms an electron inversion layer with metal-like electron density at cathodic potentials. This inversion layer facilitates electron transfer to redox-active molecules via tunneling even if the molecule’s reduction potential is beyond the semiconductor’s conduction band edge. Using an electrolyte solution composed of a homogeneous cobalt bis(terpyridine) catalyst in a water/organic solvent mixture, stable photoelectrochemistry was observed under 1-sun illumination, exhibiting an ∼30% Faradaic efficiency for CO that was similar to a glassy carbon electrode under comparable conditions. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that an ultrathin thermal oxide interface is a robust platform for development of aqueous-stable, molecule-driven photoelectrocatalysis.

Catalysts

Enhancing NO Reduction by CO Over NiO/CeO 2 Catalyst by Optimizing the Metal Oxide–Support Interaction

Noble metal catalysts are widely used in three-way catalysts (TWCs) due to their high efficiency, but their scarcity and high cost drive the need for effective, low-cost alternatives. Here, in this work, a series of NiO/CeO 2 catalysts were engineered by modulating the OH content and crystallite size of the CeO 2 support. This approach yielded Ni species ranging from isolated single atoms to small clusters and larger aggregates, with varied NiO/CeO 2 interaction strengths. Evaluation of their performance in NO reduction by CO, CO oxidation, and the water–gas shift reaction revealed that the NiO/CeO 2 -300 catalyst, featuring small CeO 2 crystallites and highly dispersed NiO clusters, delivered superior activity for NO reduction and CO oxidation. It was demonstrated that small NiO clusters, due to their efficient CO adsorption and activation, were more active than Ni single atoms. Furthermore, the presence of water was found to influence the catalyst stability, with NiO clusters less stable than single atoms likely due to the hydroxylation effect leading to the formation of Ni(OH) 2 . Oxygen storage capacity measurements revealed that performance was governed by a combination of CeO 2 crystallite size and the abundance of NiO/CeO 2 interfaces. These findings demonstrated that the catalytic performance of Ni/CeO 2 systems could be maximized by optimizing the Ni nanostructure and its interaction with CeO 2 support, positioning them as a promising, multifunctional nonprecious alternative for three-way catalysis application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change