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NASA NTRS1997

Origin and Evolution of the Unusual Object 1996 PW: Asteroids from the Oort Cloud?

The unusual object 1996 PW was discovered on 1996 August 9 by the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking automated search camera operating from Haleakala in Hawaii. Although asteroidal in appearance, it was soon determined that the object is in a near-parabolic orbit similar to that of a long-period comet. No object that was not an active comet has ever been discovered on such an eccentric orbit. The discovery of 1996 PW prompted us to examine and evaluate its possible origins, including the intriguing possibility that it is an asteroid from the Oort cloud. Current models for the formation of the Oort cloud argue that most of the material there should be from the Uranus-Neptune region and thus cometary, not asteroidal, in composition. We better quantify these models and show that approximately 1% of the Oort Cloud population should be asteroids. We find that 1996 PW has almost certainly been a resident of the Oort cloud. However, we find it equally likely that 1996 PW is an extinct comet or an asteroid. Although not conclusive, our results represent a significant change in our understanding of the Oort cloud, because they suggest that the ejection process sampled material from as close to the Sun as the asteroid belt in the primordial solar nebula and hence much warmer formation temperatures than previously thought. This diverse sample is preserved in the Oort cloud.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Asteroid Size-Frequency Distribution

A total of six deep exposures (using AOT CAM01 with a 6 inch PFOV) through the ISOCAM LW10 filter (IRAS Band 1, i.e. 12 micron) were obtained on an approximately 15 arcminute square field centered on the ecliptic plane. Point sources were extracted using the technique described. Two known asteroids appear in these frames and 20 sources moving with velocities appropriate for main belt asteroids are present. Most of the asteroids detected have flux densities less than 1 mJy, i,e., between 150 and 350 times fainter than any of the asteroids observed by IRAS. These data provide the first direct measurement of the 12 pm sky-plane density for asteroids on the ecliptic equator. The median zodiacal foreground, as measured by ISOCAM during this survey, is found to be 22.1 +/- 1.5 mJy per pixel, i.e., 26.2 +/- 1.7 MJy/sr. The results presented here imply that the actual number of kilometer-sized asteroids is significantly greater than previously believed and in reasonable agreement with the Statistical Asteroid Model.

Tedesco, Edward F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sample Return Science by Hayabusa Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Assigning the material species to each asteroid spectral type and finding out the corresponding meteorite category is crucial to make the global material map in the whole asteroid belt and to understand the evolution of the asteroid belt. Recent direct observations by spacecrafts are revealing new intriguing aspects of asteroids which cannot be obtained solely from ground-based observations or meteorite studies. However identification of the real material species constituting asteroids and their corresponding meteorite analogs are still ambiguous. Space weathering makes difficult to identify the true material, and there is still a great gap between the remote sensing data on the global surface and the local microscopic data from meteorites. Sample return from asteroids are inevitable to solve these problems. For this purpose sample return missions to asteroids belonging to various spectral classes are required. The HAYABUSA spacecraft (prelaunch name is MUSESC) launched last year is the first attempt on this concept. This report presents outline of the mission with special stress on its science.

Fujiwara, A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Deep Interior Mission: Imaging the Interior of Near-Earth Asteroids Using Radio Reflection Tomography

Near-Earth asteroids are important exploration targets since they provide clues to the evolution of the solar system. They are also of interest since they present a clear danger to Earth. Our mission objective is to image the internal structure of two NEOs using radio reflection tomography (RRT) in order to explore the record of asteroid origin and impact evolution, and to test the fundamental hypothesis that some NEOs are rubble piles rather than consolidated bodies. Our mission s RRT technique is analogous to doing a CAT scan of the asteroid from orbit. Closely sampled radar echoes are processed to yield volumetric maps of mechanical and compositional boundaries, and to measure interior material dielectric properties. The RRT instrument is a radar that operates at 5 and 15 MHz with two 30-m (tip-to-tip) dipole antennas that are used in a cross-dipole configuration. The radar transmitter and receiver electronics have heritage from JPL's MARSIS contribution to Mars Express, and the antenna is similar to systems used in IMAGE and LACE missions. The 5-MHz channel is designed to penetrate greater than 1 km of basaltic rock, and 15-MHz penetrates a few hundred meters or more. In addition to RRT volumetric imaging, we use redundant color cameras to explore the surface expressions of unit boundaries, in order to relate interior radar imaging to what is observable from spacecraft imaging and from Earth. The camera also yields stereo color imaging for geology and RRT-related compositional analysis. Gravity and high fidelity geodesy are used to explore how interior structure is expressed in shape, density, mass distribution and spin. Ion thruster propulsion is utilized by Deep Interior to enable tomographic radar mapping of multiple asteroids. Within the Discovery AO scheduling parameters we identify two targets, S-type 1999 ND43 (approximately 500 m diameter) and V-type 3908 Nyx (approximately 1 km), asteroids whose compositions bracket the diversity of solar system materials that we are likely to encounter, from undifferentiated to highly evolved. The 5-15 MHz radar is capable of probing more primitive bodies (e.g. comets or C-types) that may be available given other launch schedules. 5 MHz radar easily penetrates, with the required SNR , greater than 1 km of basalt (a good analog for Nyx). Basalt has a greater loss tangent than expected for most asteroids, although iron-rich M-types are probably not appropriate targets. 15 MHz radar penetrates the outer approximately 100 m of rocky 1 km asteroids and the deep interiors of comets. Laboratory studies of the most common NE0 materials expected (S-, C- and V-type meteorite analogs) will commence in 2005.

Safaeinili, A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Large-Scale Experimental Planetary Science Meets Planetary Defense: Deorbiting an Asteroidal Satellite

Other than remote-sensing and spacecraft-derived data, the only information that exists regarding the physical and chemical properties of asteroids is that inferred through calculations, numerical simulations, extrapolation of experiments, and meteorite studies. Our understanding of the dynamics of accretion of planetesimals, collisional disruption of asteroids, and the macroscopic, shock-induced modification of the surfaces of such small objects is also, for the most part, founded on similar inferences. While considerable strides have been made in improving the state of asteroid science, too many unknowns remain to assert that we understand the parameters necessary for the more practical problem of deflecting an asteroid or asteroid pair on an Earth-intersecting trajectory. Many of these deficiencies could be reduced or eliminated by intentionally deorbiting an asteroidal satellite and monitoring the resulting collision between it and the primary asteroid, a capability that is well within the limitations of current technology.

Cintala, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Negative Searches for Evidence of Aqueous Alteration on Asteroid Surfaces

Small bodies in the Solar System preserve evidence of the processes occurring during early Solar System formation, unlike the larger planets that undergo continuous churning of their surfaces. We study these bodies to understand what processes affected different stages of Solar System formation. The action of aqueous alteration (the alteration of material by the interaction of that material with liquid formed by the melting of incorporated ice) of near-subsurface material has been inferred to occur on many asteroids based on the spectrophotometric evidence of phyllosilicates and iron alteration minerals. The definitive indication of aqueous alteration is the 3.0- micron absorption feature attributed to structural hydroxyl (OH) and interlayer and adsorbed water (H2O) in phyllosilicates (clays) (hereafter water of hydration). A weak absorption feature centered near 0.7 microns attributed to an Fe (2+) right arrow Fe (3+) charge transfer transition in oxidized iron in phyllosilicates has been observed in the reflectance spectra and photometry of approximately 50% of the main-belt C-class asteroids. An approximately 85% correlation between this 0.7- micron feature and the 3.0- micron water of hydration absorption feature was found among the low-albedo asteroids. The feature is usually centered near 0.68 microns in asteroid spectra, and ranges in wavelength from approximately 0.57 to 0.83 microns. Serendipitously, three of the Eight Color Asteroid Survey filters the v (0.550 microns), w (0.701 microns), and x (0.853 microns)-bracket this feature well, and can be used to determine the presence of this feature in the reflectance properties of an asteroid, and probe the aqueous alteration history of larger samples of asteroid data. Two efforts to search for evidence of aqueous alteration based on the presence of this 0.7- micron absorption feature are presented here.

Vilas, F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Workshop on Oxygen in Asteroids and Meteorites

Contents include the following: Constraints on the detection of solar nebula's oxidation state through asteroid observation. Oxidation/Reduction Processes in Primitive Achondrites. Low-Temperature Chemical Processing on Asteroids. On the Formation Location of Asteroids and Meteorites. The Spectral Properties of Angritic Basalts. Correlation Between Chemical and Oxygen Isotopic Compositions in Chondrites. Effect of In-Situ Aqueous Alteration on Thermal Model Heat Budgets. Oxidation-Reduction in Meteorites: The Case of High-Ni Irons. Ureilite Atmospherics: Coming up for Air on a Parent Body. High Temperature Effects Including Oxygen Fugacity, in Pre-Planetary and Planetary Meteorites and Asteroids. Oxygen Isotopic Variation of Asteroidal Materials. High-Temperature Chemical Processing on Asteroids: An Oxygen Isotope Perspective. Oxygen Isotopes and Origin of Opaque Assemblages from the Ningqiang Carbonaceous Chondrite. Water Distribution in the Asteroid Belt. Comparative Planetary Mineralogy: V Systematics in Planetary Pyroxenes and fo 2 Estimates for Basalts from Vesta.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2005

Solar Sailing Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) Mission for Impacting/Deflecting Near-Earth Asteroids

A solar sailing mission architecture, which requires a t least ten 160-m, 300-kg solar sail spacecraft with a characteristic acceleration of 0.5 mm/sqs, is proposed as a realistic near- term option for mitigating the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Its mission feasibility is demonstrated for a fictional asteroid mitigation problem created by AIAA. This problem assumes that a 200-m asteroid, designated 2004WR, was detected on July 4, 2004, and that the expected impact will occur on January 14, 2015. The solar sailing phase of the proposed mission for the AIAA asteroid mitigation problem is comprised of the initial cruise phase from 1 AU t o 0.25 AU (1.5 years), the cranking orbit phase (3.5 years), and the retrograde orbit phase (1 year) prior to impacting the target asteroid at its perihelion (0.75 AU from the sun) on January 1, 2012. The proposed mission will require at least ten kinetic energy interceptor (KEI) solar sail spacecraft. Each KEI sailcraft consists of a 160- m, 150-kg solar sail and a 150-kg microsatellite impactor. The impactor is to be separated from a large solar sail prior to impacting the 200-m target asteroid at its perihelion. Each 150-kg microsatellite impactor, with a relative impact velocity of at least 70 km/s, will cause a conservatively estimated AV of 0.3 cm/s in the trajectory of the 200-m target asteroid, due largely to the impulsive effect of material ejected from the newly-formed crater. The deflection caused by a single impactor will increase the Earth-miss-distance by 0.45Re (where Re denotes the Earth radius of 6,378 km). Therefore, at least ten KEI sailcraft will be required for consecutive impacts, but probably without causing fragmentation, to increase the total Earth-miss-distance by 4.5Re. This miss-distance increase of 29,000 km is outside of a typical uncertainty/error of about 10,000 km in predicting the Earth-miss- distance. A conventional Delta I1 2925 launch vehicle is capable of injecting at least two KEI sailcraft into an Earth escaping orbit. A 40-m solar sail is currently being developed by NASA and industries for a possible flight validation experiment within 10 years, and a 160-m solar sail is expected to be available within 20 years.

Wie, Bong↗

NASA NTRS2011

MIRO Continuum Calibration for Asteroid Mode

MIRO (Microwave Instrument for the Rosetta Orbiter) is a lightweight, uncooled, dual-frequency heterodyne radiometer. The MIRO encountered asteroid Steins in 2008, and during the flyby, MIRO used the Asteroid Mode to measure the emission spectrum of Steins. The Asteroid Mode is one of the seven modes of the MIRO operation, and is designed to increase the length of time that a spectral line is in the MIRO pass-band during a flyby of an object. This software is used to calibrate the continuum measurement of Steins emission power during the asteroid flyby. The MIRO raw measurement data need to be calibrated in order to obtain physically meaningful data. This software calibrates the MIRO raw measurements in digital units to the brightness temperature in Kelvin. The software uses two calibration sequences that are included in the Asteroid Mode. One sequence is at the beginning of the mode, and the other at the end. The first six frames contain the measurement of a cold calibration target, while the last six frames measure a warm calibration target. The targets have known temperatures and are used to provide reference power and gain, which can be used to convert MIRO measurements into brightness temperature. The software was developed to calibrate MIRO continuum measurements from Asteroid Mode. The software determines the relationship between the raw digital unit measured by MIRO and the equivalent brightness temperature by analyzing data from calibration frames. The found relationship is applied to non-calibration frames, which are the measurements of an object of interest such as asteroids and other planetary objects that MIRO encounters during its operation. This software characterizes the gain fluctuations statistically and determines which method to estimate gain between calibration frames. For example, if the fluctuation is lower than a statistically significant level, the averaging method is used to estimate the gain between the calibration frames. If the fluctuation is found to be statistically significant, a linear interpolation of gain and reference power is used to estimate the gain between the calibration frames.

Lee, Seungwon↗

NASA NTRS2012

Next Gen NEAR: Near Earth Asteroid Human Robotic Precursor Mission Concept

Asteroids have long held the attention of the planetary science community. In particular, asteroids that evolve into orbits near that of Earth, called near-Earth objects (NEO), are of high interest as potential targets for exploration due to the relative ease (in terms of delta V) to reach them. NASA's Flexible Path calls for missions and experiments to be conducted as intermediate steps towards the eventual goal of human exploration of Mars; piloted missions to NEOs are such example. A human NEO mission is a valuable exploratory step beyond the Earth-Moon system enhancing capabilities that surpass our current experience, while also developing infrastructure for future mars exploration capabilities. To prepare for a human rendezvous with an NEO, NASA is interested in pursuing a responsible program of robotic NEO precursor missions. Next Gen NEAR is such a mission, building on the NEAR Shoemaker mission experience at the JHU/APL Space Department, to provide an affordable, low risk solution with quick data return. Next Gen NEAR proposes to make measurements needed for human exploration to asteroids: to demonstrate proximity operations, to quantify hazards for human exploration and to characterize an environment at a near-Earth asteroid representative of those that may be future human destinations. The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory has demonstrated exploration-driven mission feasibility by developing a versatile spacecraft design concept using conventional technologies that satisfies a set of science, exploration and mission objectives defined by a concept development team in the summer of 2010. We will describe the mission concept and spacecraft architecture in detail. Configuration options were compared with the mission goals and objectives in order to select the spacecraft design concept that provides the lowest cost, lowest implementation risk, simplest operation and the most benefit for the mission implementation. The Next Gen NEAR spacecraft was designed to support rendezvous with a range of candidate asteroid targets and could easily be launched with one of several NASA launch vehicles. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle supports a Next Gen NEAR launch to target many near-Earth asteroids under consideration that could be reached with a C3 of 18 km2/sec2 or less, and the Atlas V-401 provides added capability supporting launch to NEAs that require more lift capacity while at the same time providing such excess lift capability that another payload of opportunity could be launch in conjunction with Next Gen NEAR. Next Gen NEAR will measure and interact with the target surface in ways never undertaken at an asteroid, and will prepare for first human precursor mission by demonstrating exploration science operations at an accessible NEO. This flexible mission and spacecraft design concept supports target selection based on upcoming Earth-based observations and also provides opportunities for co-manifest & international partnerships. JHU/APL has demonstrated low cost, low risk, high impact missions and this mission will help to prepare NASA for human NEO exploration by combining the best of NASA s human and robotic exploration capabilities.

Rivkin, Andrew S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Catching a Rolling Stone: Dynamics and Control of a Spacecraft and an Asteroid

In a recent report, a robotic spacecraft mission is proposed for the purpose of collecting a small asteroid, or a small part of a large one, and transporting it to an orbit in the Earth-Moon system. Such an undertaking will require solutions to many of the engineering problems associated with deflection of an asteroid that poses a danger to Earth. In both cases, it may be necessary for a spacecraft to approach an asteroid from a nearby position, hover for some amount of time, move with the same angular velocity as the asteroid, descend, perhaps ascend, and finally arrest the angular velocity of the asteroid. Dynamics and control in each of these activities is analyzed in order to determine the velocity increments and control torque that must be provided by a reaction control system, and the mass of the propellant that will be consumed. Two attitude control algorithms are developed, one to deal with synchronizing the spacecraft s angular velocity with that of the asteroid, and the other to arrest the asteroid s angular velocity. A novel approach is proposed for saving fuel in the latter case.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multiple Asteroid Systems: Dimensions and Thermal Properties from Spitzer Space Telescope and Ground-based Observations

We collected mid-IR spectra from 5.2 to 38 microns using the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph of 28 asteroids representative of all established types of binary groups. Photometric light curves were also obtained for 14 of them during the Spitzer observations to provide the context of the observations and reliable estimates of their absolute magnitudes. The extracted mid-IR spectra were analyzed using a modified standard thermal model (STM) and a thermophysical model (TPM) that takes into account the shape and geometry of the large primary at the time of the Spitzer observation. We derived a reliable estimate of the size, albedo, and beaming factor for each of these asteroids, representing three main taxonomic groups: C, S, and X. For large (volume-equivalent system diameter Deq > 130 km) binary asteroids, the TPM analysis indicates a low thermal inertia (Lambda < or = approx.100 J/1/2 s/K/sq m2) and their emissivity spectra display strong mineral features, implying that they are covered with a thick layer of thermally insulating regolith. The smaller (surface-equivalent system diameter Deff < 17 km) asteroids also show some emission lines of minerals, but they are significantly weaker, consistent with regoliths with coarser grains, than those of the large binary asteroids. The average bulk densities of these multiple asteroids vary from 0.7-1.7 g/cu cm (P-, C-type) to approx. 2 g/cu cm (S-type). The highest density is estimated for the M-type (22) Kalliope (3.2 +/- 0.9 g/cu cm). The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and emissivity spectra, made available as a supplement document, could help to constrain the surface compositions of these asteroids.

Marchis, F.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission: The Boulder Capture Option

NASA is examining two options for the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), which will return asteroid material to a Lunar Distant Retrograde Orbit (LDRO) using a robotic solar-electric-propulsion spacecraft, called the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV). Once the ARV places the asteroid material into the LDRO, a piloted mission will rendezvous and dock with the ARV. After docking, astronauts will conduct two extravehicular activities (EVAs) to inspect and sample the asteroid material before returning to Earth. One option involves capturing an entire small (approximately 4-10 m diameter) near-Earth asteroid (NEA) inside a large inflatable bag. However, NASA is examining another option that entails retrieving a boulder (approximately 1-5 m) via robotic manipulators from the surface of a larger (approximately 100+ m) pre-characterized NEA. This option can leverage robotic mission data to help ensure success by targeting previously (or soon to be) well-characterized NEAs. For example, the data from the Hayabusa mission has been utilized to develop detailed mission designs that assess options and risks associated with proximity and surface operations. Hayabusa's target NEA, Itokawa, has been identified as a valid target and is known to possess hundreds of appropriately sized boulders on its surface. Further robotic characterization of additional NEAs (e.g., Bennu and 1999 JU3) by NASA's OSIRIS REx and JAXA's Hayabusa 2 missions is planned to begin in 2018. The boulder option is an extremely large sample‐return mission with the prospect of bringing back many tons of well‐characterized asteroid material to the Earth‐Moon system. The candidate boulder from the target NEA can be selected based on inputs from the world‐wide science community, ensuring that the most scientifically interesting boulder be returned for subsequent sampling. This boulder option for NASA's ARM can leverage knowledge of previously characterized NEAs from prior robotic missions, which provides more certainty of the target NEA's physical characteristics and reduces mission risk. This increases the return on investment for NASA's future activities with respect to science, human exploration, resource utilization, and planetary defense

Abell, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Application of a Novel Long-Reach Manipulator Concept to Asteroid Redirect Missions

A high priority mission currently being formulated by NASA is to capture all or part of an asteroid and return it to cis-lunar space for examination by an astronaut crew. Two major mission architectures are currently being considered: in the first (Mission Concept A), a spacecraft would rendezvous and capture an entire free flying asteroid (up to 14 meters in diameter), and in the second (Mission Concept B), a spacecraft would rendezvous with a large asteroid (which could include one of the Martian moons) and retrieve a boulder (up to 4 meters in diameter). A critical element of the mission is the system that will capture the asteroid or boulder material, enclose it and secure it for the return flight. This paper describes the design concepts, concept of operations, structural sizing and masses of capture systems that are based on a new and novel Tendon- Actuated Lightweight In-Space MANipulator (TALISMAN) general-purpose robotic system. Features of the TALISMAN system are described and the status of its technology development is summarized. TALISMAN-based asteroid material retrieval system concepts and concepts-of-operations are defined for each asteroid mission architecture. The TALISMAN-based capture systems are shown to dramatically increase operational versatility while reducing mission risk. Total masses of TALISMAN-based systems are presented, reinforcing the mission viability of using a manipulator-based approach for the asteroid redirect mission.

Dorsey, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Dust from Asteroids as Regolith Microsamples

Meteorite science is rich with compositional indicators by which we classify parent bodies, but few sample groups are definitively linked with asteroid spectra. More robust links need to be forged between meteorites and their parent bodies to understand the composition, diversity and distribution. A major link can be sample analysis of the parent body material and comparison with meteorite data. Hayabusa, the first sample return mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), was developed to rendezvous with and collect samples from asteroid Itokawa and return them to Earth. Thousands of sub-100 micron particles were recovered, apparently introduced during the spacecraft impact into the surface of the asteroid, linking the asteroid Itokawa to LL chondrites [1]. Upcoming missions Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx will collect more significant sample masses from asteroids. In all these cases, the samples are or will be a collection of regolith particles. Sample return to earth is not the only method for regolith particle analysis. Dust is present around all airless bodies, generated by micrometeorite impact into their airless surfaces, which in turn lofts regolith particles into a "cloud" around the body. The composition, flux, and size-frequency distribution of dust particles can provide significant insight into the geological evolution of airless bodies [2]. For example, the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer (CDA) detected salts in Enceladus' icy plume material, providing evidence for a subsurface ocean in contact with a silicate seafloor [3]. Similar instruments have flown on the Rosetta, LADEE, and Stardust missions. Such an instrument may be of great use in obtaining the elemental, isotopic and mineralogical composition measurement of dust particles originating from asteroids without returning the samples to terrestrial laboratories. We investigated the ability of a limited sample analysis capability using a dust instrument to forge links between asteroid regolith particles and known meteorite groups. We further set limits on the number of individual particles statistically needed to robustly reproduce a bulk composition.

microsamples↗

NASA NTRS2015

Linear Covariance Analysis For Proximity Operations Around Asteroid 2008 EV5

The NASA initiative to collect an asteroid, the Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission (ARRM), is currently investigating the option of retrieving a boulder from an asteroid, demonstrating planetary defense with an enhanced gravity tractor technique, and returning it to a lunar orbit. Techniques for accomplishing this are being investigated by the Satellite Servicing Capabilities Office (SSCO) at NASA GSFC in collaboration with JPL, NASA JSC, LaRC, and Draper Laboratory, Inc. Two critical phases of the mission are the descent to the boulder and the Enhanced Gravity Tractor demonstration. A linear covariance analysis is done for these phases to assess the feasibility of these concepts with the proposed design of the sensor and actuator suite of the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV). The sensor suite for this analysis includes a wide field of view camera, LiDAR, and an IMU. The proposed asteroid of interest is currently the C-type asteroid 2008 EV5, a carbonaceous chondrite that is of high interest to the scientific community. This paper presents an overview of the linear covariance analysis techniques and simulation tool, provides sensor and actuator models, and addresses the feasibility of descending to the surface of the asteroid within allocated requirements as well as the possibility of maintaining a halo orbit to demonstrate the Enhanced Gravity Tractor technique.

Navigation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of the Gaussian Covariance Approximation over an Earth-Asteroid Encounter Period

In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.

planetary defense↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of the Gaussian Covariance Approximation over an Earth-Asteroid Encounter Period

uncertainty characterization↗