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At least 163 records · Page 9

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Direct inference of nuclear equation-of-state parameters from gravitational-wave observations

The observation of neutron star mergers with gravitational waves (GWs) has provided a new method to constrain the dense-matter equation of state (EOS) and to better understand its nuclear physics. However, inferring nuclear microphysics from GW observations necessitates the sampling of EOS model parameters that serve as input for each EOS used during the GW data analysis. The sampling of the EOS parameters requires solving the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations a large number of times—a process that slows down each likelihood evaluation in the analysis on the order of a few seconds. Here, we employ emulators for the TOV equations built using multilayer perceptron neural networks to enable direct inference of nuclear EOS parameters from GW strain data. Our emulators allow us to rapidly solve the TOV equations, taking in EOS parameters and outputting the associated tidal deformability of a neutron star in only a few tens of milliseconds. We implement these emulators in PyCBC to directly infer the EOS parameters using the event GW170817, providing posteriors on these parameters informed solely by GWs. We benchmark these runs against analyses performed using the full TOV solver and find that the emulators achieve speed ups of nearly two orders of magnitude, with negligible differences in the recovered posteriors. Additionally, we constrain the slope and curvature of the symmetry energy at the 90% upper credible interval to be $L$ sym ≲ 106 MeV and $K$ sym ≲ 26 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reconstructing Hanford worker external doses from photons for epidemiology

The accurate reconstruction of external photon doses is essential for credible radiation epidemiology. This article presents the methodology used to derive dose estimates for 37 012 Hanford Site workers included in the Million Person Study. The approach employs historical dose records from the Hanford Radiation Exposure database and a previous epidemiology study. Bias correction factors specific to dosimeter type and period of use were applied and missing annual doses were estimated using a hierarchical nearby method to estimate deep dose equivalent for each worker. For early years with limited detection sensitivity, missed doses were quantified based on expected time-period-specific, low-dose statistical distributions. The revised dose estimates resulted in lower median and mean career doses than unadjusted data, while increasing the number of person-years with nonzero dose. Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of bias in dosimetry measurements, missed doses and gap years on dose estimates. Differences in cumulative dose estimates between unadjusted and revised annual estimates are most prominent in the early operational years due to the highest bias during that time period.

dose reconstruction↗

Enhancing DESI DR1 full-shape analyses using HOD-informed priors

We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1↗

OpenFAST simulation of floating wind turbines with large heading change

Previous versions of OpenFAST, the physics-based wind turbine engineering and design tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, were limited to small rotations of the floating platform. This prevented OpenFAST from being used to simulate important events, such as the loss of a mooring line, or specific floater concepts that might experience large platform yaw motion. To overcome this limitation, we modify the structural dynamics and hydrodynamics modules of OpenFAST to allow unrestricted platform yaw motion. We apply the improved version of OpenFAST to simulate the drifting of a floating wind turbine system after the loss of a mooring line. The results, including both global motion and the internal structural loads at selected locations, appear credible and consistent with expectations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Half-Life and Precision Shape Measurement of the 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 Decay of 130 Te

Here, we present a new measurement of the 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 half-life of 130 Te (𝑇$^{2⁢𝜈}_{1/2}$) using the first complete model of the CUORE data, based on 1038 kg yr of collected exposure. Thanks to optimized data selection, we achieve a factor of two improvement in precision, obtaining 𝑇$^{2⁢𝜈}_{1/2}$ = (9.32⁢$^{+0.05}_{−0.04}$⁢stat⁢ $^{+0.07}_{−0.07}$⁢syst)×10 20 yr. The signal-to-background ratio is increased by 70% compared to our previous results, enabling the first application of the improved 2⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 formalism to 130 Te . Within this framework, we determine a credibility interval for the effective axial coupling in the nuclear medium as a function of nuclear matrix elements. We also extract values for the higher-order nuclear matrix element ratios: second-to-first and third-to-first. The second-to-first ratio agrees with nuclear model predictions, while the third-to-first ratio deviates from theoretical expectations. These findings provide essential tests of nuclear models and key inputs for future 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 searches.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Search for charmed baryons in the Λ c + η system and measurement of the branching fractions of Λ c ( 2880 ) + and Λ c ( 2940 ) + decaying to Λ c + η and p D 0 relative to Σ c ( 2455 ) π

We search for excited charmed baryons in the Λ c + η system using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 980 fb − 1 . The data were collected by the Belle detector at the KEKB e + e − asymmetric-energy collider. No significant signals are found in the Λ c + η mass spectrum, including the known Λ c ( 2880 ) + and Λ c ( 2940 ) + . Clear Λ c ( 2880 ) + and Λ c ( 2940 ) + signals are observed in the p D 0 mass spectrum. We set upper limits at 90% credibility level on ratios of branching fractions of Λ c ( 2880 ) + and Λ c ( 2940 ) + decaying to Λ c + η relative to Σ c ( 2455 ) π of < 0.13 for the Λ c ( 2880 ) + and < 1.11 for the Λ c ( 2940 ) + . We measure ratios of branching fractions of Λ c ( 2880 ) + and Λ c ( 2940 ) + decaying to p D 0 relative to Σ c ( 2455 ) π of 0.75 ± 0.03 ( stat ) ± 0.07 ( syst ) for the Λ c ( 2880 ) + and 3.59 ± 0.21 ( stat ) ± 0.56 ( syst ) for the Λ c ( 2940 ) + . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Search for the baryon number and lepton number violating decays τ − → Λ π − and τ − → Λ ¯ π − at Belle II

We present a search for the baryon number B and lepton number L violating decays τ − → Λ π − and τ − → Λ ¯ π − produced from the e + e − → τ + τ − process, using a 364 fb − 1 data sample collected by the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB collider. No evidence of signal is found in either decay mode, which have | Δ ( B − L ) | equal to 2 and 0, respectively. Upper limits at 90% credibility level on the branching fractions of τ − → Λ π − and τ − → Λ ¯ π − are determined to be 4.7 × 10 − 8 and 4.3 × 10 − 8 , respectively. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, I. (ORCID:0000000322870173)↗

QCD axion: Some like it hot

We compare the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) axion phase-space distribution from unitarized next-to-leading order chiral perturbation theory with the one extracted from pion-scattering data. We derive a robust bound by confronting momentum-dependent Boltzmann equations against up-to-date observations of the cosmic microwave background, of the baryonic acoustic oscillations and of primordial abundances. These datasets imply 𝑚 𝑎 ≤ 0.16 eV for the 95% credible interval, i.e., ∼ 30% stronger bound than what previously found. We present forecasts using dedicated likelihoods for future cosmological surveys and the sphaleron rate from unquenched lattice QCD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for the decay B 0 → γ γ using Belle and Belle II data

We report the result of a search for the rare decay B 0 → γ γ using a combined dataset of 753 × 10 6 B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle experiment and 387 × 10 6 B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle II experiment from decays of the ϒ ( 4 S ) resonance produced in e + e − collisions. A simultaneous fit to the Belle and Belle II data sets yields 11.0 − 5.5 + 6.5 signal events, corresponding to a 2.5 σ significance. We determine the branching fraction B ( B 0 → γ γ ) = ( 3.7 − 1.8 + 2.2 ( stat ) ± 0.5 ( syst ) ) × 10 − 8 and set a 90% credibility level upper limit of B ( B 0 → γ γ ) < 6.4 × 10 − 8 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, I. (ORCID:0000000322870173)↗

Constraints on f ( R ) gravity from thermal-Sunyaev-Zel’dovich-effect-selected SPT galaxy clusters and weak lensing mass calibration from DES and HST

We present constraints on the f ( R ) gravity model using a sample of 1005 galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.25–1.78 that have been selected through the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from South Pole Telescope data and subjected to optical and near-infrared confirmation with the multicomponent matched filter algorithm. We employ weak gravitational lensing mass calibration from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data for 688 clusters at z < 0.95 and from the Hubble Space Telescope for 39 clusters with 0.6 < z < 1.7 . Our cluster sample is a powerful probe of f ( R ) gravity, because this model predicts a scale-dependent enhancement in the growth of structure, which impacts the halo mass function (HMF) at cluster mass scales. To account for these modified gravity effects on the HMF, our analysis employs a semianalytical approach calibrated with numerical simulations. Combining calibrated cluster counts with primary cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Planck 2018 release, we derive robust constraints on the f ( R ) parameter f R 0 . Our results, log 10 | f R 0 | < − 5.32 at the 95% credible level, are the tightest current constraints on f ( R ) gravity from cosmological scales. This upper limit rules out f ( R ) -like deviations from general relativity that result in more than a ∼ 20 % enhancement of the cluster population on mass scales M 200 c > 3 × 10 14 M ⊙ . Published by the American Physical Society 2025

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Interacting dark sector within ETHOS: Cosmological constraints from SPT cluster abundance with DES and HST weak lensing data

We use galaxy cluster abundance measurements from the South Pole Telescope enhanced by multicomponent matched filter confirmation and complemented with mass information obtained using weak-lensing data from Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) and targeted Hubble Space Telescope observations for probing deviations from the cold dark matter paradigm. Concretely, we consider a class of dark sector models featuring interactions between dark matter (DM) and a dark radiation (DR) component within the framework of the effective theory of structure formation (ETHOS). We focus on scenarios that lead to power suppression over a wide range of scales, and thus can be tested with data sensitive to large scales, as realized, for example, for DM–DR interactions following from an unbroken non-Abelian 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(𝑁) gauge theory (interaction rate with power-law index 𝑛 = 0 within the ETHOS parametrization). Cluster abundance measurements are mostly sensitive to the amount of DR interacting with DM, parametrized by the ratio of DR temperature to the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature, 𝜉 DR = 𝑇 DR /𝑇 CMB . We find an upper limit 𝜉 DR < 17% at 95% credibility. When the cluster data are combined with Planck 2018 CMB data along with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements we find 𝜉 DR < 10%, corresponding to a limit on the abundance of interacting DR that is around 3 times tighter than that from CMB + BAO data alone. We also discuss the complementarity of weak lensing informed cluster abundance studies with probes sensitive to smaller scales, explore the impact on our analysis of massive neutrinos, and comment on a slight preference for the presence of a nonzero interacting DR abundance, which enables a physical solution to the 𝑆 8 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗