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MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas Description This dataset contains locations of existing data center facilities in the United States. Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM), a crowd-sourced database. Data points from OSM are processed in various ways to determine additional variables provided in the data including: facility area (square feet), associated US county, and US state. This dataset can be used to identify areas of concentrated data center development and inform government and private sector planning strategies for future buildout of data centers and the infrastructure necessary to support it. Usage Notes Validation of OSM-derived data center locations is an ongoing development under the IM3 project, and the database will be updated as new information becomes available. In some instances, both the data center area (e.g., campus) and individual data center buildings are included as overlapping areas in the database. Both values are retained. Data center points, buildings, and campus areas are provided as separate layers in the downloadable data package. Note that data items are not necessarily complete across layers. That is, a specific data center may only be present as a single point geometry in the "point" layer while other data centers are represented in both the campus and building layers. In some cases, data center campuses and/or buildings straddle a county boundary line. Mappings to both counties are retained in the database as separate rows. These data rows will have the same data center id information, but each will have different county information. Crowd-sourced data, by nature, relies on individuals and communities to provide information. As a result, some data may be missing where it has not yet been reported. As we collect information on additional data center locations and as OSM receives additional contributions, the database will be updated to capture additional data points not yet shown. Technical Information Data is available for download under the following formats: GeoPackage (GPKG) CSV Geospatial data is provided in the WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinate reference system. The GeoPackage download contains the following layers. See usage notes for more information. "point" "building" "campus" The "point" layer includes all data from OSM that had POINT geometry type (i.e., individual coordinates). The "building" layer includes all OSM data that did not have POINT geometry and where the building tag in the OSM export was neither equal to "no" or null. Data that did not meet the "point" or "building" qualification was assumed to be a facility campus and included in the "campus" layer. The dataset contains the following parameters. Variables provided by OSM are labeled with (OSM-provided). id - unique identification number (OSM-provided with prefix of "node/", "relation/" and similar attributes removed) state - name of US state state_abb - two letter US state abbreviation state_id - state ID number county - name of US county county_id - county ID number ref - reference numbers or codes (OSM-provided) operator - the name of the company, corporation, or person in charge facility (OSM-provided) name - name of facility (OSM-provided) sqft - surface area of facility polygon, measured in square feet. Only available for "building" and "campus" layers lat - latitude of data centroid point lon - longitude of data centroid point type – represented spatial information. One of "point", "building", or "campus". geometry – POLYGON geometry of area footprint (in "campus" and "building" layers) or POINT geometry of locations (in "point" layer). This parameter is not included in the csv download. Attribution Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap, which is made available at openstreetmap.org under the Open Database License (ODbL). US state and county boundary information was collected from the US Census Bureau for the year 2024, which is made publicly available at https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files.html Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License The IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas is made available under the Open Database License: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1.0/. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas

IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas Description This dataset contains locations of existing data center facilities in the United States. Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM), a crowd-sourced database. Data points from OSM are processed in various ways to determine additional variables provided in the data including: facility area (square feet), associated US county, and US state. This dataset can be used to identify areas of concentrated data center development and inform government and private sector planning strategies for future buildout of data centers and the infrastructure necessary to support it. Usage Notes Validation of OSM-derived data center locations is an ongoing development under the IM3 project, and the database will be updated as new information becomes available. In some instances, both the data center area (e.g., campus) and individual data center buildings are included as overlapping areas in the database. Both values are retained. Data center points, buildings, and campus areas are provided as separate layers in the downloadable data package. Note that data items are not necessarily complete across layers. That is, a specific data center may only be present as a single point geometry in the "point" layer while other data centers are represented in both the campus and building layers. In some cases, data center campuses and/or buildings straddle a county boundary line. Mappings to both counties are retained in the database as separate rows. These data rows will have the same data center id information, but each will have different county information. Crowd-sourced data, by nature, relies on individuals and communities to provide information. As a result, some data may be missing where it has not yet been reported. As we collect information on additional data center locations and as OSM receives additional contributions, the database will be updated to capture additional data points not yet shown. Data items will occasionally be removed from OSM if they are misidentified, if they no longer exist, if they are duplicates of another item, or similar. For that reason, updated versions of this database may not contain all data center locations included in previous versions. Technical Information Data is available for download under the following formats: GeoPackage (GPKG) CSV Geospatial data is provided in the WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinate reference system. The GeoPackage download contains the following layers. See usage notes for more information. "point" "building" "campus" The "point" layer includes all data from OSM that had POINT geometry type (i.e., individual coordinates). The "building" layer includes all OSM data that did not have POINT geometry and where the building tag in the OSM export was neither equal to "no" or null. Data that did not meet the "point" or "building" qualification was assumed to be a facility campus and included in the "campus" layer. The dataset contains the following parameters. Variables provided by OSM are labeled with (OSM-provided). id - unique identification number (OSM-provided with prefix of "node/", "relation/" and similar attributes removed) state - name of US state state_abb - two letter US state abbreviation state_id - state ID number county - name of US county county_id - county ID number ref - reference numbers or codes (OSM-provided) operator - the name of the company, corporation, or person in charge facility (OSM-provided) name - name of facility (OSM-provided) sqft - surface area of facility polygon, measured in square feet. Only available for "building" and "campus" layers lat - latitude of data centroid point lon - longitude of data centroid point type – represented spatial information. One of "point", "building", or "campus". geometry – POLYGON geometry of area footprint (in "campus" and "building" layers) or POINT geometry of locations (in "point" layer). This parameter is not included in the csv download. Attribution Data center locations were derived from OpenStreetMap, which is made available at openstreetmap.org under the Open Database License (ODbL). US state and county boundary information was collected from the US Census Bureau for the year 2024, which is made publicly available at https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files.html Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License The IM3 Open Source Data Center Atlas is made available under the Open Database License: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1.0/. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with Mongird et al. (in prep) organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSI+RP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_ep_score_raster.tif solar_msi_ep_score_raster.tif wind_msi_ep_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with the Mongird et al. paper entitled "Can US power grid expansion avoid prime agricultural lands?" and is organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSIxRP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_rp_score_raster.tif solar_msi_rp_score_raster.tif wind_msi_rp_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗

Simulation-Based Model for Facility-Scale Eagle Presence Mapping

This talk presents the recent progress in building a predictive movement model for predicting conflict between soaring raptors and wind turbines. In particular, it details the recently developed numerical tool called Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator for simulating updraft-subsidized paths for soaring raptors through variety of wind conditions and the associated directional intent.

agent-based model↗

Quantifying the Impact of Excluding the Submersion Exposure Route for Existing Superfund Radionuclide Screening Level Calculator Soil and Tap Water Models

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides initial data screening guidelines for radionuclide-contaminated Superfund sites using preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) and dose compliance concentrations (DCCs). PRGs and DCCs are target concentration values based on acceptable excess lifetime cancer risk and annual dose limits, respectively. They are calculated for various environmental media that may be encountered by residential and worker land uses. PRGs and DCCs typically consist of multiple exposure routes. One of these routes is submersion, which is exposure to a gaseous or particulate radionuclide that is suspended in air. Currently, submersion is only included in air calculations. This study focused on determining whether factoring submersion into total PRG/DCC calculations for soil and tap water created a significant difference in the target concentrations. New equations for individual submersion PRGs/DCCs for each land use of interest for soil and tap water were developed. A wind-driven particulate emission factor and Andelman’s constant were used to model the amount of soil and vapor in the air from soil and household use of tap water, respectively. The submersion PRG/DCC was then included in the total PRG/DCC for each radionuclide, followed by a percent difference comparison of the old and new totals to quantify the impact of the change. For total soil PRGs/DCCs, with and without submersion, the difference was less than 1 percent; however, many of the tap water radionuclides analyzed – including multiple radon and polonium isotopes – showed as high as a 200 percent difference.This technical memorandum (TM) presents recommendations for updates to current EPA guidelines for initial data screens of radionuclide contaminated tap water.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

useeio-infra-app

This GitHub repository hosts the source code to an RShiny web application that implements the U.S. Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (USEEIO) model in order to conduct a screening-level life cycle analysis. The USEEIO model is an open-source model developed and maintained by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), along with colleagues and contractors, and is available on GitHub (https://github.com/USEPA/USEEIO). The USEEIO model incorporates environmental data into pre-existing Economic Input-Output Models, which look at the interdependence of different economic industries. In this web application, the focus is on energy infrastructure applications; however, it can be used to implement USEEIO in any area for which this model is applicable.

AS↗

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing Iowa Agricultural Landscapes to Improve Environmental Co-Benefits of Bioenergy Production

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstocks are needed to improve carbon (C) management while provisioning biomass for bioproducts and biofuel. The transition to increased cellulosic biomass production can be guided by land management plans designed to improve economic, environmental, and ecological performance. We constructed a sustainability model to compare landscape designs for biofuel production from corn (Zea mays L.) stover and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) in central Iowa, USA. We used the model to compare environmental and socioeconomic outcomes associated with four landscape management strategies, with and without cellulosic biomass markets. We evaluated (1) a fuelshed area containing over 1.2 million ha (3 million acres) of corn and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) within 80 km (50 miles) of a commercial-scale cellulosic biorefinery in Nevada, Iowa, and (2) the South Fork watershed containing over 72,000 ha (178,000 acres) of these row crops within eight north central Iowa HUC-12 (hydrologic unit code) watersheds. At both landscape scales, we found that it is possible to achieve multiple environmental and socioeconomic benefits concomitantly with cellulosic biomass production by strategically collecting corn stover and converting the 10% of the lowest-profitability row crop land to perennial switchgrass. Potential benefits from landscape design include increased biodiversity, soil and water quality improvements, increased soil carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation, and reduced fertilizer use and cost. Our model results showed that increasing benefits can accrue when complementary conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage, use of a rye cover crop) are combined and integrated throughout a fuelshed or watershed area. We conclude that ecologically based landscape designs offer valuable insights about costs and benefits of land management alternatives, with relevance for achieving stakeholder goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing the co-evolution of green technology diffusion and consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes: An agent-based model

Massive diffusion of green technologies is significant for building a cleaner world. However, the process of technology diffusion is usually slow and complex. An in-depth understanding of the mechanism regarding green technology diffusion is an essential precondition for effectively stimulating this process. Green technology diffusion heavily involves both social and technological changes. Although existing studies have provided rich knowledge about identifying critical drivers and barriers affecting green technology diffusion, research that considers consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion as an evolving system is still sparse. Aiming at exploring the co-evolution of consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion, this paper builds an agent-based model that integrates the relative agreement model with technology diffusion theories to conduct a sequence of controlled numerical experiments, which progressively unveil how attitudinal and technological factors impact green technology diffusion. The main findings include that (1) improving consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes is prominently beneficial to green technology diffusion and maturation; (2) technology maturity has very limited impact on consumers’ first-time purchases but significantly affects consumers’ satisfaction, which would further impact consumers’ repeat purchases; (3) consumers that do not support green technologies frequently emerge during the evolution of attitudes (despite the high technology maturity), which corresponds to the emergence of the anti-environmental groups observed in the real world; (4) active interactions between non-adopters enable their attitudes to converge, which results in the polarization of consumers’ attitudes.

ABM↗

Denitrification and the challenge of scaling microsite knowledge to the globe

Here, our knowledge of microbial processes—who is responsible for what, the rates at which they occur, and the substrates consumed and products produced—is imperfect for many if not most taxa, but even less is known about how microsite processes scale to the ecosystem and thence the globe. In both natural and managed environments, scaling links fundamental knowledge to application and also allows for global assessments of the importance of microbial processes. But rarely is scaling straightforward: More often than not, process rates in situ are distributed in a highly skewed fashion, under the influence of multiple interacting controls, and thus often difficult to sample, quantify, and predict. To date, quantitative models of many important processes fail to capture daily, seasonal, and annual fluxes with the precision needed to effect meaningful management outcomes. Nitrogen cycle processes are a case in point, and denitrification is a prime example. Statistical models based on machine learning can improve predictability and identify the best environmental predictors but are—by themselves—insufficient for revealing process-level knowledge gaps or predicting outcomes under novel environmental conditions. Hybrid models that incorporate well-calibrated process models as predictors for machine learning algorithms can provide both improved understanding and more reliable forecasts under environmental conditions not yet experienced. Incorporating trait-based models into such efforts promises to improve predictions and understanding still further, but much more development is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Review of Modeling Approaches for Understanding and Monitoring the Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy

Understanding the environmental effects of marine energy (ME) devices is fundamental for their sustainable development and efficient regulation. However, measuring effects is difficult given the limited number of operational devices currently deployed. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating environmental effects and quantifying risks. It is most effective when informed by empirical data and coordinated with the development and implementation of monitoring protocols. We reviewed modeling techniques and information needs for six environmental stressor–receptor interactions related to ME: changes in oceanographic systems, underwater noise, electromagnetic fields (EMFs), changes in habitat, collision risk, and displacement of marine animals. This review considers the effects of tidal, wave, and ocean current energy converters. We summarized the availability and maturity of models for each stressor–receptor interaction and provide examples involving ME devices when available and analogous examples otherwise. Models for oceanographic systems and underwater noise were widely available and sometimes applied to ME, but need validation in real-world settings. Many methods are available for modeling habitat change and displacement of marine animals, but few examples related to ME exist. Models of collision risk and species response to EMFs are still in stages of theory development and need more observational data, particularly about species behavior near devices, to be effective. We conclude by synthesizing model status, commonalities between models, and overlapping monitoring needs that can be exploited to develop a coordinated and efficient set of protocols for predicting and monitoring the environmental effects of ME.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Modeling the Size Distribution and Chemical Composition of Secondary Organic Aerosols during the Reactive Uptake of Isoprene-Derived Epoxydiols under Low-Humidity Condition

Reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), which are isoprene oxidation products, onto acidic sulfate aerosols is recognized to be an important mechanism for the formation of isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA). While a mechanistic understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation exists, several processes affecting their formation remain uncertain. Evaluating mechanistic IEPOX-SOA models with controlled laboratory experiments under longer atmospherically relevant timescales is critical. Here, we implement our latest understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation within a box model to simulate the measured reactive uptake of IEPOX on polydisperse ammonium bisulfate seed aerosols within an environmental Teflon chamber. The model is evaluated with single-particle measurements of size distribution, volume, density, and composition of aerosols due to IEPOX-SOA formation at timescales of hours. Additionally, we find that the model can simulate the growth of particles due to IEPOX multiphase chemistry, as reflected in increases of the mean particle size and volume concentrations, and a shift of number size distribution to larger sizes. The model also predicts the observed evolution of particle number mean diameter and total volume concentrations at the end of the experiment. We show that in addition to self-limiting effects of IEPOX-SOA coatings, accounting for the molar balance between inorganic and organic sulfate and mass accommodation coefficient of IEPOX are important parameters governing modeling of IEPOX-SOA formation. Thus, models which do not account for the molar sulfate balance and/or diffusion limitations within IEPOX-SOA coatings are likely to predict too high IEPOX-SOA formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Across‐model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change

Abstract Large across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO 2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO 2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.

Hou, Enqing↗

Meta‐Analysis and Regression Modeling of the Impacts of Four Indoor Environmental Quality Metrics on Office Performance

Awareness of how buildings interact with the occupant experience—especially human performance—is becoming more prevalent, as seen by increasing interest and investment in healthy built environments. However, there is a need to synthesize the wide array of existing indoor environmental assessment and performance research in a way that can translate directly to building design and operation. Existing research in this area typically focuses on a single isolated metric and has not focused on making the results utilizable by building practitioners. The aim of this research is to investigate existing office performance literature through meta‐analyses and produce regression models for four indoor environmental quality (IEQ) metrics to support critical decision‐making for building operation and renovation. To reach this aim, a literature review was conducted to identify studies that measure the impact of changing ventilation rate, temperature, horizontal illuminance, and noise level in offices on occupant task performance. This repository of field and laboratory studies was analyzed to visualize the trends between the selected IEQ metrics and task performance. The temperature, ventilation rate, and horizontal illuminance regression models showed clear improvement potential when modifying indoor conditions toward the defined high‐performance range, while the regression model for noise level was inconclusive. The discussion notes the importance of designing holistically for all components of these IEQ categories to utilize the results, for example, good filtration on outdoor air for quantifying ventilation impact and uniform overhead lighting with low contrast for quantifying horizontal illuminance impact. The novelty of this work is in considering multiple facets of the indoor environment under a single, unified analysis schema and producing IEQ‐based performance gains that can directly inform cost‐benefit analyses of building design and renovation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗