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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Transport and stability in sustained high q min , high β N discharges on DIII-D

Abstract To address the needs for a fusion pilot plan design, DIII-D/EAST joint experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated high normalized beta β N ∼ 4.2, toroidal beta β T ∼ 3.3% with q min > 2, q 95 ⩽ 8 sustained for more than six energy confinement times in high poloidal beta regime. The excellent energy confinement quality ( H 98y2 ∼ 1.8) is achieved with an internal transport barrier at high line-averaged Greenwald density fraction f Gr > 0.9. The trapped gyro-Landau fluid (TGLF) modeling of the transport characteristics shows that the beam-driven rotation does not play an important role in the high confinement quality. The modeling also captures very well several transport features, giving us confidence in using integrated modeling to project these experimental results to future machines. The high-performance phase is terminated by fast-growing modes triggered near the n = 1 ideal-wall kink stability limit. New radio frequency (RF) capabilities for off-axis current drive could remove the residual ohmic current to achieve a fully non-inductive state, and improve the mode–wall coupling to increase the ideal-wall β N limit, enabling sustainment of the fully non-inductive high performance plasma in stationary conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with the market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we propose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price-taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we pro-pose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify the IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the IES optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding and Predicting Pedestal Scenarios on NSTX-U (Final Technical Report)

This project investigated gyrokinetic instabilities in the NSTX pedestal, identified the major transport mechanisms (some of them novel) in the NSTX pedestal, and developed and validated a predictive modeling capability for pedestal transport in spherical tokamaks, with particular emphasis on NSTX discharges. The work combined first-principles gyrokinetic simulations, reduced transport models, integrated transport calculations with ASTRA, and exploratory machine learning tools. The central outcome is a practical modeling capability for pedestal temperature profiles based on reduced models informed and constrained by gyrokinetic physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗
DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Client Sampling in Federated Learning with Client-level Heterogeneous Differential Privacy

Federated Learning with client-level differential privacy (DP) provides a promising framework for collaboratively training models while rigorously protecting clients’ privacy. However, classic approaches like DP-FedAvg struggle when clients have heterogeneous privacy requirements, as they must uniformly enforce the strictest privacy level across all clients, leading to excessive DP noise and significant degradation in model utility. Existing methods to improve the model utility in such heterogeneous privacy settings often assume a trusted server and are largely heuristic, resulting in suboptimal performance and lacking strong theoretical foundations. Here, in this work, we address these challenges under a practical attack model where both clients and the server are honest-but-curious. We propose GDPFed, which partitions clients into groups based on their privacy budgets and achieves client-level DP within each group to reduce the privacy budget waste and hence improve the model utility. Based on the privacy and convergence analysis of GDPFed, we find that the magnitude of DP noise depends on both model dimensionality and the per-group client sampling ratios. To further improve the performance of GDPFed, we introduce GDPFed+, which integrates model sparsification to eliminate unnecessary noise and optimizes per-group client sampling ratios to minimize convergence error. Extensive empirical evaluations on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of GDPFed+, showing substantial performance gains compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Xu, Jiahao [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning-assisted modeling for χ (2) nonlinear optics

Modeling second-order (χ(2)) nonlinear optical processes remains computationally expensive due to the need to resolve fast field oscillations and simulate wave propagation using methods such as the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). This can become a bottleneck in real-time applications, such as high-repetition-rate laser systems requiring rapid feedback and control. We present a long short-term memory-based surrogate model trained on SSFM simulations generated from a start-to-end model of the photocathode drive laser at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory’s Linac Coherent Light Source II. The model achieves over 250× speedup while maintaining high fidelity, enabling future real-time optimization and laying the foundation for data-integrated modeling frameworks and digital twins of laser systems.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Impact of Tritium Permeation Membrane Performance and Direct Internal Recycling on Fusion Fuel Cycle Efficiency Using TMAP8

An efficient fuel cycle is vital to sustainable and cost-effective energy generation in fusion systems. Since tritium is not widely available, fusion systems must breed their own tritium for sustainable fusion deuterium-tritium reactions. An inefficient fuel cycle increases the tritium inventory needed for operations, which increases costs, constraints on tritium management systems, and safety concerns. A fuel cycle model is a powerful tool for understanding tritium inventories and flow rates across all systems in the fuel cycle. By simplifying the technical details into time-dependent tritium flow rates and inventories, the model can simulate the entire fuel cycle with high computational efficiency, even for technologies that are still under development. It can therefore quantify the impact of new tritium management technologies on fuel cycle efficiency. To evaluate the impact of key components on reducing tritium inventory, we are using and expanding an existing fuel cycle models based on latest advancements in fuel cycle research. The new model integrates Tritium Permeation Membrane (TPM) and Direct Internal Recycling (DIR) to enhance tritium transport from blanket breeders and plasma exhaust. These fuel cycle models are implemented in TMAP8 (Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8), a MOOSE-based open-source application designed to provide cutting-edge capabilities for tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling. The study aims to demonstrate the extensibility of existing fuel cycle modeling capability in TMAP8 and to offer a proof-of-principle design for future fusion plant systems. The presentation will cover the performance of fuel cycle modeling capabilities available in TMAP8, highlight advancements in fuel cycle research, and present a sensitivity analysis of these models. The results underline potential approaches and technology solutions to lower tritium inventory requirements, highlighting their role in shaping the future of fusion energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗
DOE OSTI2025

AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystem function and soil quality. Salinity influences carbon cycling through direct effects on microbial activity and indirect alterations to soil physicochemical properties including cation exchange, pH, and soil organic carbon availability. Current models inadequately represent these complexities, relying on linear reduction functions that overlook specific physicochemical changes induced by salinity. To address this gap, we propose an integrated model framework, AquaMEND, that combines microbial-explicit carbon decomposition and geochemical models. This model allows cation exchange and surface complexation processes to capture solute chemistry and nutrient availability in soils upon saltwater intrusion. Using response functions that capture salinity impacts on both salt-sensitive and salt-resistant microbial processes, AquaMEND simulates how the abiotic and biotic mechanisms work individually and collectively to regulate organic and inorganic pools and fluxes. Here, the parallel structure of aqueous and non-aqueous phases, together with microbial functions, result in a versatile model for solving dynamic coupling of organics, minerals and microbes under various environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Simulation of PSS/E, OpenDSS, and PSCAD for Power Systems Stability Analysis With Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is reshaping the dynamic behavior of power systems. IEEE standard 1547-2018 suggests that distributed energy resources (DERs) should provide grid services such as voltage and frequency supports. On the other hand, dynamic events caused by IBRs such as sub-synchronous oscillation have been reported. These developments necessitate improvement in the current modeling capabilities to better understand the interdependencies within power systems. These include interactions between transmission and distribution systems, among IBRs themselves, and between IBRs and conventional resources. In this paper, we present a co-simulation model integrating PSS/E, OpenDSS, and PSCAD to analyze IBR impacts on the stability of transmission and distribution systems. A key challenge in developing a co-simulation model is ensuring interoperability among different simulators (interfacing and data flow) while maintaining accurate results. Using the developed model, we simulate the impact of IBRs on power systems in two test cases: 1) fault ride through (FRT) capability during a generation trip contingency; 2) IBR-induced sub-synchronous oscillation. The results show the effectiveness of the co-simulation model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗