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At least 163 records · Page 9

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗

Indirect learning control for nonlinear dynamical systems

In a previous paper, learning control algorithms were developed based on adaptive control ideas for linear time variant systems. The learning control methods were shown to have certain advantages over their adaptive control counterparts, such as the ability to produce zero tracking error in time varying systems, and the ability to eliminate repetitive disturbances. In recent years, certain adaptive control algorithms have been developed for multi-body dynamic systems such as robots, with global guaranteed convergence to zero tracking error for the nonlinear system euations. In this paper we study the relationship between such adaptive control methods designed for this specific class of nonlinear systems, and the learning control problem for such systems, seeking to converge to zero tracking error in following a specific command repeatedly, starting from the same initial conditions each time. The extension of these methods from the adaptive control problem to the learning control problem is seen to be trivial. The advantages and disadvantages of using learning control based on such adaptive control concepts for nonlinear systems, and the use of other currently available learning control algorithms are discussed.

Ryu, Yeong Soon↗

Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

Shewhart, Mark↗

Discrete time learning control in nonlinear systems

In this paper digital learning control methods are developed primarily for use in single-input, single-output nonlinear dynamic systems. Conditions for convergence of the basic form of learning control based on integral control concepts are given, and shown to be satisfied by a large class of nonlinear problems. It is shown that it is not the gross nonlinearities of the differential equations that matter in the convergence, but rather the much smaller nonlinearities that can manifest themselves during the short time interval of one sample time. New algorithms are developed that eliminate restrictions on the size of the learning gain, and on knowledge of the appropriate sign of the learning gain, for convergence to zero error in tracking a feasible desired output trajectory. It is shown that one of the new algorithms can give guaranteed convergence in the presence of actuator saturation constraints, and indicate when the requested trajectory is beyond the actuator capabilities.

Longman, Richard W.↗

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

Assumption Generation for the Verification of Learning-Enabled Autonomous Systems

Providing safety guarantees for autonomous systems is difficultas these systems operate in complex environments that require the use of learning-enabled components, such as deep neural networks (DNNs) for visual perception. DNNs are hard to analyze due to their size (they can have thousands or millions of parameters), lack of formal specifications (DNNs are typically learnt from labeled data, in the absence of any formal or informal requirements), and sensitivity to small changes in the environment. We present an assume-guarantee style compositional approach for the formal verification of system-level safety properties of such autonomous systems. Our insight is that we can analyze the system in the absence of the DNN perception components by automatically synthesizing assumptions on the DNN behaviour that guarantee the satisfaction of the required safety properties. The synthesized assumptions are the weakest in the sense that they characterize the output sequences of all the possible DNNs that, plugged into the autonomous system, guarantee the required safety properties. The assumptions can be leveraged as run-time monitors over a deployed DNN to guarantee the safety of the overall system; they can also be mined to extract local specifications for use during training and testing of DNNs. We illustrate our approach on a case study taken from the autonomous airplanes domain that uses a complex DNN for perception

Autonomous systems↗

Telemetry Anomaly Detection System using Machine Learning to Streamline Mission Operations

Spacecraft housekeeping telemetry is monitored at flight control centers by the operations engineers using tools that can perform limit checking or simple trend analysis. Recent developments in machine learning techniques for anomaly detection enables the implementation of more sophisticated systems that aim to augment current state-of-theart mission tools to provide valuable decision support for the spacecraft operators, assisting in anomaly detection and potentially saving console time for the engineers. We will show some results of the implementation of an anomaly detection tool for the NASA Mars Science Laboratory mission.

Weber, Romann↗

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

A fuzzy classifier system for process control

A fuzzy classifier system that discovers rules for controlling a mathematical model of a pH titration system was developed by researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM). Fuzzy classifier systems successfully combine the strengths of learning classifier systems and fuzzy logic controllers. Learning classifier systems resemble familiar production rule-based systems, but they represent their IF-THEN rules by strings of characters rather than in the traditional linguistic terms. Fuzzy logic is a tool that allows for the incorporation of abstract concepts into rule based-systems, thereby allowing the rules to resemble the familiar 'rules-of-thumb' commonly used by humans when solving difficult process control and reasoning problems. Like learning classifier systems, fuzzy classifier systems employ a genetic algorithm to explore and sample new rules for manipulating the problem environment. Like fuzzy logic controllers, fuzzy classifier systems encapsulate knowledge in the form of production rules. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the ability of fuzzy classifier systems to generate a fuzzy logic-based process control system.

Karr, C. L.↗

RSRA/X-Wing flight control system development - Lessons learned

The X-Wing, in concept, marries the efficiencies of a helicopter and fixed wing aircraft through the use of a four-bladed wing/rotor that can be rotated or stopped in flight. The RSRA/X-Wing flight test program was a technology demonstration of this concept which, after three successful flights, was discontinued in late 1987. In spite of many technical challenges in this program, such as the use of circulation control, the fabrication of a large all-composite rotor, the development of an advanced, quadruplex digital flight control system, and the need for higher harmonic control, no major technical problems had been encountered at the time of the stop-work order. This paper addresses the issues of flight control system development and focuses on lessons learned. As with other such programs, software development was the most consuming issue. Other subjects of discussion include the problems of balancing program goals with technical goals, software- and hard-ware-related problems, safety issues, and system testing.

Corliss, Lloyd D.↗

Quicker Q-Learning in Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent learning in Markov Decisions Problems is challenging because of the presence ot two credit assignment problems: 1) How to credit an action taken at time step t for rewards received at t' greater than t; and 2) How to credit an action taken by agent i considering the system reward is a function of the actions of all the agents. The first credit assignment problem is typically addressed with temporal difference methods such as Q-learning OK TD(lambda) The second credit assi,onment problem is typically addressed either by hand-crafting reward functions that assign proper credit to an agent, or by making certain independence assumptions about an agent's state-space and reward function. To address both credit assignment problems simultaneously, we propose the Q Updates with Immediate Counterfactual Rewards-learning (QUICR-learning) designed to improve both the convergence properties and performance of Q-learning in large multi-agent problems. Instead of assuming that an agent s value function can be made independent of other agents, this method suppresses the impact of other agents using counterfactual rewards. Results on multi-agent grid-world problems over multiple topologies show that QUICR-learning can achieve up to thirty fold improvements in performance over both conventional and local Q-learning in the largest tested systems.

Agogino, Adrian K.↗

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗

Tradeoffs in the utility of learned knowledge

Planning systems which make use of domain theories can produce more accurate plans and achieve more goals as the quality of their domain knowledge improves. MTR, a multi-strategy learning system, was designed to learn from system failures and improve domain knowledge used in planning. However, augmented domain knowledge can decrease planning efficiency. We describe how improved knowledge that becomes expensive to use can be approximated to yield calculated tradeoffs in accuracy and efficiency.

Kedar, Smadar↗

Learning in Artificial Neural Systems

This paper presents an overview and analysis of learning in Artificial Neural Systems (ANS's). It begins with a general introduction to neural networks and connectionist approaches to information processing. The basis for learning in ANS's is then described, and compared with classical Machine learning. While similar in some ways, ANS learning deviates from tradition in its dependence on the modification of individual weights to bring about changes in a knowledge representation distributed across connections in a network. This unique form of learning is analyzed from two aspects: the selection of an appropriate network architecture for representing the problem, and the choice of a suitable learning rule capable of reproducing the desired function within the given network. The various network architectures are classified, and then identified with explicit restrictions on the types of functions they are capable of representing. The learning rules, i.e., algorithms that specify how the network weights are modified, are similarly taxonomized, and where possible, the limitations inherent to specific classes of rules are outlined.

Matheus, Christopher J.↗

Knowledge acquisition and interface design for learning on demand systems

The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners to see for themselves the usefulness of new knowledge for actual problem situations, thereby increasing the motivation for learning new information. Finally, learning on demand makes new information relevant to the task at hand, leading to more informed decision making, better quality products, and improved performance.

Nelson, Wayne A.↗

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Space Missions

Use of heritage and new technology is necessary/enabling to implementing small, low cost missions, yet overruns decrease the ability to sustain future mission flight rates The majority of the cost growth drivers seen in the D&NF study were embedded early during formulation phase and later realized during the development and I&T phases Cost drivers can be avoided or significantly decreased by project management and SE emphasis on early identification of risks and realistic analyses SE processes that emphasize an assessment of technology within the mission system to identify technical issues in the design or operational use of the technology. Realistic assessment of new and heritage spacecraft technology assumptions , identification of risks and mitigation strategies. Realistic estimates of effort required to inherit existing or qualify new technology, identification of risks to estimates and develop mitigation strategies. Allocation of project reserves for risk-based mitigation strategies of each individual area of heritage or new technology. Careful tailoring of inheritance processes to ensure due diligence.

Barley, Bryan↗