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DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Low Cloud Feedbacks Globally With E3SM High‐Res MMF: Agreement With LES but Stronger Shortwave Effects

This study investigates low cloud feedback in a warmer climate using global simulations from the High-Resolution Multi-scale Modeling Framework (HR-MMF), which explicitly simulates small-scale eddies globally. Two 5-year simulations—one with present-day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a second with SSTs warmed uniformly by 4 K—reveal a positive global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE = 0.3 W/m 2 /K), comparable to estimates from CMIP models. As the climate warms, significant reductions in low cloud cover occur over stratocumulus regions. This study is the first attempt to compare HR-MMF results with predictions from idealized large-eddy simulations from the CGILS intercomparison. Despite different underlying assumptions, we find qualitative agreement in SWCRE and inversion height changes between HR-MMF and CGILS predictions. This suggests reasonable credibility for the CGILS framework in predicting cloud responses under the out-of-sample conditions found in HR-MMF. However, the HR-MMF exhibits stronger SWCRE changes than predicted by CGILS. We explore potential causes for this discrepancy, examining variations in cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and cloud conditions. Our results show a fairly homogeneous SWCRE response, with little systematic variation tied to the variations in CCFs. This reveals a dominant role for SST forcing in modulating SWCRE.

boundary-layer clouds↗

DOE OSTI2025

NWB Sensors Infrared Cloud Imager Data Products from SGP

NWB Sensors is a company which has developed a commercially available Infrared Cloud Imager (ICI). For more information, consult the company's webpage, https://www.nwbsensors.com/infrared-cloud-imager. To validate the radiometric accuracy of the ICI, NWB Sensors deployed it to the ARM SGP User Facility in 2023. The primary motivation of this deployment was to perform an intercomparison between the ICI and the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). The AERI spectral radiance data product can be integrated across the response function of the ICI and directly compared to the zenith radiance observed by the ICI. In addition, the ICI uses proprietary models of the downwelling clear-sky radiance in its cloud processing algorithms. They are based on surface meteorology and precipitable water vapor (PWV). These models were validated by comparing their predicted radiances to those derived from radiative transfer models of the ARM radiosondes. Finally, PWV observations derived from the ICI's onboard GNSS-based PWV retrieval system were compared against those from the microwave radiometer. This dataset contains the ICI radiance and cloud data products.

Atmosphere↗

DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term measurements of ice nucleating particles at Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites worldwide

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud microphysics and precipitation formation, yet long-term, spatially extensive observational datasets remain limited. Here, we present one of the most comprehensive publicly available datasets of immersion-mode INP concentrations using a single analytical method, generated through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. INP filter samples have been collected across a broad range of environments – including agricultural plains, Arctic coastlines, high-elevation mountain sites, marine regions, and urban areas – via fixed observatories, mobile facility deployments, and vertically-resolved tethered balloon system operations. We describe the standardized processing and quality assurance pipeline, from filter collection and processing using the Ice Nucleation Spectrometer to final data products archived on the ARM Data Discovery portal. The dataset includes both total INP concentrations and selectively treated samples, allowing for classification of biological, organic, and inorganic INP types. It features a continuous 5-year record of INP measurements from a central U.S. site, with data collection still ongoing. Seasonal and site-specific differences in INP concentrations are illustrated through intercomparisons at −10 and −20 °C, revealing distinct regional sources and atmospheric drivers. We also outline mechanisms for researchers to access existing data, request additional sample analyses, and propose future field campaigns involving ARM INP measurements. This dataset supports a wide range of scientific applications, from observational and mechanistic studies to model development, and provides critical constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions across diverse atmospheric regimes (Creamean et al., 2024, 2020b; https://doi.org/10.5439/1770816).

Creamean, Jessie M. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Co↗

DOE OSTI2025

Infrared Cloud Imager Instrument Intercomparison Report

The Infrared Cloud Imager Instrument Intercomparison was a guest instrument deployment by NWB Sensors to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility observatory on the Southern Great Plains (SGP) between May 18 and December 12, 2023. NWB Sensors is a company that has developed a commercially available infrared cloud imager (ICI). The ICI provides radiometrically calibrated, full-sky images of the downwelling infrared radiance in the 7.3-14 µm band. In addition, it provides cloud radiance as the residual between the observed radiance and the modeled cloud-free radiance as well as derived cloud products. The instrument is used in applications that require consistent detection of clouds across day and night. For more information, consult the instrument's webpage. The primary goal of the deployment was to validate the radiometric accuracy of the ICI. The ICI uses a proprietary calibration method to convert the raw data from its infrared camera into downwelling radiance. Unlike similar instruments, the system does not have an onboard blackbody calibration standard. Instead, NWB Sensors characterizes each ICI camera individually in an environmental chamber while looking at a blackbody standard. The resulting (proprietary) calibration is used operationally in the instrument and has been demonstrated to be stable over long periods. To validate the radiometric products from the ICI, an intercomparison between the ICI data products and those from ARM’s atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) was made. The AERI is a best-in-class instrument for measuring downwelling infrared radiance (Gero et al. 2025). A weighted integration of the AERI’s spectral radiances across the ICI’s camera response was performed. The resulting radiance (herein called the AERI radiance) was directly compared to the zenith radiance concurrently observed by the ICI. The results of these comparisons are reported in the next section of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Studies of optical and chemical properties of aged and fresh biomass burning absorbing aerosols for climate models

Particulate emissions from burning fuels from sub-Saharan Africa is currently poorly characterized. With increasing population and industrialization, emissions are expected to grow. Optical methods for measuring light absorption in the ultraviolet (UV) and visible (vis) regions of the spectrum are crucial for understanding the optical properties of BB aerosols (Bond and Bergstrom, 2006; Lack and Cappa, 2010; Moschos et al., 2021). One such instrument is the dual-spot AE33 model aethalometer is a common filter-based instrument that can be used to measure aerosol absorption properties (Hansen et al., 1984). This instrument has many figures of merit; however, the method's limitations include potential biases from scattering within the filter material, multiple scattering effects of the particles, filter loading (i.e. particle shadowing), and the need for wavelength-specific correction factors (Cλ), which depend on accurate intercomparison with other in situ techniques (Bond et al., 1999; Collaud Coen et al., 2010). This work aims to: 1. Optically characterize BB aerosol generated from African fuel 2. Correct the aethalometer at multiple wavelengths 3. Parametrize these correction factors. 4. Combusting the same fuels with two difference tube furnace systems assess the general applicability of this flexible means of producing BB aerosol. This was accomplished by conducting laboratory studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and North Carolina A&T State University (NCA&T), where aethalometer measurements were compared to in situ optical measurements. Mass cross sections of BB aerosol from these under-studied fuels will be determined along with their wavelength dependence.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Results from a multi-laboratory ocean metaproteomic intercomparison: effects of LC-MS acquisition and data analysis procedures

Metaproteomics is an increasingly popular methodology that provides information regarding the metabolic functions of specific microbial taxa and has potential for contributing to ocean ecology and biogeochemical studies. A blinded multi-laboratory intercomparison was conducted to assess comparability and reproducibility of taxonomic and functional results and their sensitivity to methodological variables. Euphotic zone samples from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the North Atlantic Ocean collected by in situ pumps and the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Clio were distributed with a paired metagenome, and one-dimensional (1D) liquid chromatographic data-dependent acquisition mass spectrometry analysis was stipulated. Analysis of mass spectra from seven laboratories through a common bioinformatic pipeline identified a shared set of 1056 proteins from 1395 shared peptide constituents. Quantitative analyses showed good reproducibility: pairwise regressions of spectral counts between laboratories yielded R 2 values averaged 0.62±0.11, and a Sørensen similarity analysis of the top 1000 proteins revealed 70 %–80 % similarity between laboratory groups. Taxonomic and functional assignments showed good coherence between technical replicates and different laboratories. A bioinformatic intercomparison study, involving 10 laboratories using eight software packages, successfully identified thousands of peptides within the complex metaproteomic datasets, demonstrating the utility of these software tools for ocean metaproteomic research. Lessons learned and potential improvements in methods were described. Future efforts could examine reproducibility in deeper metaproteomes, examine accuracy in targeted absolute quantitation analyses, and develop standards for data output formats to improve data interoperability. Together, these results demonstrate the reproducibility of metaproteomic analyses and their suitability for microbial oceanography research, including integration into global-scale ocean surveys and ocean biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Review of the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Accident Dosimeter 1980s-present

A Nuclear Accident Dosimetry program is a federal requirement for all facilities that have the potential to have a criticality accident. Personnel Nuclear Accident Dosimeter (PNAD) theory and analytical procedures are driven by various scientific needs and interacting regulations. A brief history of the status of USA Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear accident dosimetry regulations, recommendations, and performance testing criteria are given. Then, the history of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) PNAD is explored, including changes in the physical dosimeter and adjustments of the analysis method through the last four decades. Finally, the performance of LLNL’s PNAD at criticality accident intercomparison training exercises since 2009 is explored. In general, reported neutron doses have been within or close to DOE-STD-1098 performance criteria while reported gamma doses have been outside of DOE-STD-1098 performance criteria. Reported total absorbed doses have varied in meeting ANSI/HPS N13.3 and ANSI/HPS N13.3 (R2019) performance criteria. Dosimetry staff retirement and turnover have left historical knowledge gaps, yet provided opportunities within the NAD program at LLNL. This review paper serves as an overview of the history and status of the NAD program. Brief technical, procedural and programmatic recommendations to improve LLNL’s NAD program are given. Technical recommendations include investigating orientation factors through modeling or empirical experimentation, investigating gamma dosimetry methods for high-dose scenarios, and exploring other dosimetric methods for simpler, quicker NAD analysis. Procedural recommendations include better documentation of conversion factor (activity-to-fluence and fluence-to-dose) derivations and spectrum uses, and updated analysis spreadsheets or simple Graphic User Interfaces for dose calculations. In conclusion, programmatic recommendations include formalized training for NAD analysts, and having multiple SMEs trained on the NAD program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Northern Hemisphere Particle Microphysics Data Set From the Precipitation Imaging Package

Microphysical observations of precipitating particles are critical data sources for numerical weather prediction models and remote sensing retrieval algorithms. However, obtaining coherent data sets of particle microphysics is challenging as they are often unindexed, distributed across disparate institutions, and have not undergone a uniform quality control process. This work introduces a unified, comprehensive Northern Hemisphere particle microphysical data set from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration precipitation imaging package (PIP), accessible in a standardized data format and stored in a centralized, public repository. Data is collected from 10 measurement sites spanning 34° latitude (37°N–71°N) over 10 years (2014–2023), which comprise a set of 1,070,000 precipitating minutes. The provided data set includes measurements of a suite of microphysical attributes for both rain and snow, including distributions of particle size, vertical velocity, and effective density, along with higher-order products including an approximation of volume-weighted equivalent particle densities, liquid equivalent snowfall, and rainfall rate estimates. The data underwent a rigorous standardization and quality assurance process to filter out erroneous observations to produce a self-describing, scalable, and achievable data set. Case study analyses demonstrate the capabilities of the data set in identifying physical processes like precipitation phase-changes at high temporal resolution. Bulk precipitation characteristics from a multi-site intercomparison also highlight distinct microphysical properties unique to each location. This curated PIP data set is a robust database of high-quality particle microphysical observations for constraining future precipitation retrieval algorithms, and offers new insights toward better understanding regional and seasonal differences in bulk precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field intercomparison of ice nucleation measurements: the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation Phase 3 (FIN-03)

Abstract. The third phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-03) was conducted at the Storm Peak Laboratory in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, in September 2015 to facilitate the intercomparison of instruments measuring ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the field. Instruments included two online and four offline measurement systems for INPs, which are a subset of those utilized in the laboratory study that comprised the second phase of FIN (FIN-02). The composition of the total aerosols was characterized using the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS) and Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS) instruments, and aerosol size distributions were measured by a laser aerosol spectrometer (LAS). The dominant total particle compositions present during FIN-03 were composed of sulfates, organic compounds, and nitrates, as well as particles derived from biomass burning. Mineral-dust-containing particles were ubiquitous throughout and represented 67 % of supermicron particles. Total WIBS fluorescing particle concentrations for particles with diameters of > 0.5 µm were 0.04 ± 0.02 cm−3 (0.1 cm−3 highest; 0.02 cm−3 lowest), typical of the warm season in this region and representing ≈ 9 % of all particles in this size range as a campaign average. The primary focus of FIN-03 was the measurement of INP concentrations via immersion freezing at temperatures > −33 °C. Additionally, some measurements were made in the deposition nucleation regime at these same temperatures, representing one of the first efforts to include both mechanisms within a field campaign. INP concentrations via immersion freezing agreed within factors ranging from nearly 1 to 5 times on average between matched (time and temperature) measurements, and disagreements only rarely exceeded 1 order of magnitude for sampling times coordinated to within 3 h. Comparisons were restricted to temperatures lower than −15 °C due to the limits of detection related to sample volumes and very low INP concentrations. Outliers of up to 2 orders of magnitude occurred between −25 and −18 °C; a better agreement was seen at higher and lower temperatures. Although the 5–10 factor agreement of INP measurements found in FIN-03 aligned with the results of the FIN-02 laboratory comparison phase, giving confidence in progress of this measurement field, this level of agreement still equates to temperature uncertainties of 3.5 to 5 °C that may not be sufficient for numerical cloud modeling applications that utilize INP information. INP activity in the immersion-freezing mode was generally found to be an order of magnitude or more, making it more efficient than in the deposition regime at 95 %–99 % water relative humidity, although this limited data set should be augmented in future efforts. To contextualize the study results, an assessment was made of the composition of INPs during the late-summer to early-fall period of this study inferred through comparison to existing ice nucleation parameterizations and through measurement of the influence of thermal and organic carbon digestion treatments on immersion-freezing ice nucleation activity. Consistent with other studies in continental regions, biological INPs dominated at temperatures of > −20 °C and sometimes colder, while arable dust-like or other organic-influenced INPs were inferred to dominate below −20 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗