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1,613 records · Page 9

Thermal Analysis of the Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) Power Electronic Modules

In an effort to transform future space power system architectures and operations, the Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) project is currently developing an interface standard for power electronic modules to enable modular architectures for space power systems. Each architecture would consist of one or more modular electronic units (MEU) that would comprise of a tailored combination of modules. The standard currently comprises modules enabling switchgear, power conversion, and data interfacing. The objective of the AMPS project is to enable the modularity and interchangeability of different architectures using these standardized modules in hopes of reducing complexity and cost, increasing inherent redundancy and reliability, and minimizing power system redesign for future programs. A key enabler to these future modular architectures will be the thermal management system, which has to contend with acquiring heat from the electronics modules at the card level and then transporting that heat to the radiator of the larger system. The focus of this paper, therefore, will be the thermal design and analysis of multiple AMPS power electronics modules and the development of their thermal-vacuum test.

Modular Power Electronics

Evaluation of Various Methods for Determining Bulk Compositions of Chondrules and Other Objects in Petrographic Thin Sections

Studies of many objects in petrographic thin section, such as melt inclusions in igneous rocks, chondrules and Ca-Al rich inclusions in chondritic meteorites, or clasts in lunar and other breccias, require or can benefit from knowledge of their bulk compositions. Given the scarcity of these materials, the reluctance of curators to provide more abundant material, and the extreme difficulty of cleanly separating such objects from their rock matrices, geochemical and cosmochemical studies need the ability to determine their bulk compositions from in situ methods, such as defocused beam analysis, or quantitative chemical mapping by electron beam methods.

Daniel Kent Ross

Radiation-Resistant Ti/BN Coatings: Insights From 171 Days Exposure to Space Radiation and Atomic Oxygen in Low Orbit

Atmospheric Plasma Spray (APS) and Vacuum Plasma Spray (VPS) techniques were used to develop Ti/2 vol.% hBN coatings, for extreme space environments and tested aboard the International Space Station as part of the MISSE-17 (Materials International Space Station Experiments) program. The coatings were exposed to atomic oxygen, space radiation, and low-orbit thermal cycling. VPS coatings showed a 56% increase in microhardness, a 26% rise in elastic modulus, minimal porosity and crack density changes compared to APS coatings. The change in mechanical properties is attributed to the formation of TiO, TiO₂ and TiN from nitrogen retention, alongside radiation-induced dislocations, which enhanced surface hardening. The oxidation of titanium led to the formation of TiO and TiO₂, while boron nitride was retained and underwent transmutation in VPS coatings. XPS and EDS analyses confirmed the enhanced space-environment resistance of VPS coatings, making them ideal for long-term spacecraft protection in lunar and Martian conditions.

Abhijith Kunneparambil Sukumaran

Prototype Demonstration of Solar-Carbothermal System to Extract Oxygen From Regolith

The Carbothermal Reduction Demonstration (CaRD) project was an effort to develop a prototype system to demonstrate the extraction of oxygen from simulated lunar regolith using concentrated solar energy and a carbothermal reaction. The prototype consisted of a deployable solar concentrator capable of tracking the sun, carbothermal reactor, fluid system, gas analysis, and a solar concentrator control system consisting of avionics and software. These subsystems were developed by multiple NASA centers and a private industry partner, Sierra Space. The various teams worked together to define requirements and interfaces to successfully assemble the complex system and demonstrate an integrated solar carbothermal process. The solar concentrator developed at Glenn Research Center (GRC) was designed to be stowed for a launch environment then deployed on the lunar surface. It utilized a crossed dragone configuration of composite mirrors to direct horizontal sunlight onto a target 90° from the incoming sunlight. The key performance parameters for the solar concentrator were efficiency and power density. The carbothermal reactor was developed by Sierra Space through a separate project called the Carbothermal Oxygen Production Reactor (COPR) where it successfully demonstrated a fully automated process in a thermal vacuum environment [1]. The fluid system needed for the carbothermal reaction was also developed by Sierra Space and successfully demonstrated in the same thermal vacuum test. The gas analysis system was developed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and was required to determine the amount of oxygen extracted during each test. The gas analysis system was based on the Mass Spectrometer Observing Lunar Operations (MSOLO) instrument. Avionics and software for the CaRD prototype were also developed at KSC and based on experience with MSOLO avionics and software. The control system was designed to stow, deploy, track the sun, and perform beam alignment of the concentrated light. The prototype subsystems were integrated and tested at Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area. A heliostat was used to direct sunlight toward the prototype in a way that is representative of the sunlight conditions at the south pole of the Moon. When concentrated sunlight was focused on simulated lunar regolith within the reactor, the gas analysis team confirmed the presence of carbon monoxide gas, which confirmed that a solar carbothermal reaction took place. The key performance parameter for the integrated prototype was grams of oxygen extracted per kilowatt hour of energy arriving at the concentrator primary mirror. The prototype design successfully demonstrated end-to-end capability and further steps to achieve a flight capable system have been defined. With lunar data, engineers would be able to design a scaled-up system capable of extracting oxygen from regolith at useful quantities for crew life support and rocket propellant. On the long term, this method of In-Situ Resource Utilization could be used to drastically reduce the cost and risk of a sustained human presence on the Moon by reducing the amount of oxygen that would have to be delivered.

Koorosh R Araghi

Prototype Demonstration of Solar Carbothermal System to Extract Oxygen from Regolith

The Carbothermal Reduction Demonstration (CaRD) project was an effort to develop a prototype system to demonstrate the extraction of oxygen from simulated lunar regolith using concentrated solar energy and a carbothermal reaction. The prototype consisted of a deployable solar concentrator capable of tracking the sun, carbothermal reactor, fluid system, gas analysis, and a solar concentrator control system consisting of avionics and software. These subsystems were developed by multiple NASA centers and a private industry partner, Sierra Space. The various teams worked together to define requirements and interfaces to successfully assemble the complex system and demonstrate an integrated solar carbothermal process. The solar concentrator developed at Glenn Research Center (GRC) was designed to be stowed for a launch environment then deployed on the lunar surface. It utilized a crossed dragone configuration of composite mirrors to direct horizontal sunlight onto a target 90° from the incoming sunlight. The key performance parameters for the solar concentrator were efficiency and power density. The carbothermal reactor was developed by Sierra Space through a separate project called the Carbothermal Oxygen Production Reactor (COPR) where it successfully demonstrated a fully automated process in a thermal vacuum environment. The fluid system needed for the carbothermal reaction was also developed by Sierra Space and successfully demonstrated in the same thermal vacuum test. The gas analysis system was developed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and was required to determine the amount of oxygen extracted during each test. The gas analysis system was based on the Mass Spectrometer Observing Lunar Operations (MSOLO) instrument. Avionics and software for the CaRD prototype were also developed at KSC and based on experience with MSOLO avionics and software. The control system was designed to stow, deploy, track the sun, and perform beam alignment of the concentrated light. The prototype subsystems were integrated and tested at Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area. A heliostat was used to direct sunlight toward the prototype in a way that is representative of the sunlight conditions at the south pole of the Moon. When concentrated sunlight was focused on simulated lunar regolith within the reactor, the gas analysis team confirmed the presence of carbon monoxide gas, which confirmed that a solar carbothermal reaction took place. The key performance parameter for the integrated prototype was grams of oxygen extracted per kilowatt hour of energy arriving at the concentrator primary mirror. The prototype design successfully demonstrated end-to-end capability and further steps to achieve a flight capable system have been defined. With lunar data, engineers would be able to design a scaled-up system capable of extracting oxygen from regolith at useful quantities for crew life support and rocket propellant. On the long term, this method of In-Situ Resource Utilization could be used to drastically reduce the cost and risk of a sustained human presence on the Moon by reducing the amount of oxygen that would have to be delivered.

Aaron Paz

Prototype Demonstration of an Integrated Solar Concentrator System and Carbothermal Reactor Using Solar Energy to Extract Oxygen from Regolith

The Carbothermal Reduction Demonstration (CaRD) project was an effort to develop a prototype system to demonstrate the extraction of oxygen from simulated lunar regolith using concentrated solar energy and a carbothermal reaction. The prototype consisted of a deployable solar concentrator capable of tracking the sun, carbothermal reactor, fluid system, gas analysis, and a solar concentrator control system consisting of avionics and software. These subsystems were developed by multiple NASA centers and a private industry partner, Sierra Space. The various teams worked together to define requirements and interfaces to successfully assemble the complex system and demonstrate an integrated solar carbothermal process. The solar concentrator developed at Glenn Research Center (GRC) was designed to be stowed for a launch environment then deployed on the lunar surface. It utilized a crossed dragone configuration of composite mirrors to direct horizontal sunlight onto a target 90° from the incoming sunlight. The key performance parameters for the solar concentrator were efficiency and power density. The carbothermal reactor was developed by Sierra Space through a separate project called the Carbothermal Oxygen Production Reactor (COPR) where it successfully demonstrated a fully automated process in a thermal vacuum environment. The fluid system needed for the carbothermal reaction was also developed by Sierra Space and successfully demonstrated in the same thermal vacuum test. The gas analysis system was developed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and was required to determine the amount of oxygen extracted during each test. The gas analysis system was based on the Mass Spectrometer Observing Lunar Operations (MSOLO) instrument. Avionics and software for the CaRD prototype were also developed at KSC and based on experience with MSOLO avionics and software. The control system was designed to stow, deploy, track the sun, and perform beam alignment of the concentrated light. The prototype subsystems were integrated and tested at Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area. A heliostat was used to direct sunlight toward the prototype in a way that is representative of the sunlight conditions at the south pole of the Moon. When concentrated sunlight was focused on simulated lunar regolith within the reactor, the gas analysis team confirmed the presence of carbon monoxide gas, which confirmed that a solar carbothermal reaction took place. The key performance parameter for the integrated prototype was grams of oxygen extracted per kilowatt hour of energy arriving at the concentrator primary mirror. The prototype design successfully demonstrated end-to-end capability and further steps to achieve a flight capable system have been defined. With lunar data, engineers would be able to design a scaled-up system capable of extracting oxygen from regolith at useful quantities for crew life support and rocket propellant. On the long term, this method of In-Situ Resource Utilization could be used to drastically reduce the cost and risk of a sustained human presence on the Moon by reducing the amount of oxygen that would have to be delivered.

Oxygen from Regolith

Distribution of Extraterrestrial Nucleobases, Other N-Heterocycles, and Their Precursors in A Sample From Asteroid Bennu

The recent discovery of all five canonical nucleobases in samples from Bennu provides compelling evidence that some of life’s ingredients were synthesized abiotically in the parent body of this asteroid and/or its precedent components. However, due to the sample availability and the limited method for the analysis, the detailed distribution of nucleobases in the samples remains elusive. Here we report the concentrations of a diverse suite of nitrogen (N)-heterocycles including nucleobases extracted by 2% and 20% hydrochloric acid from a homogenized Bennu sample. The detection of both canonical and non-canonical nucleobase pairs confirms that these biologically important compounds are extraterrestrial. Pyrimidines are more abundant than purines—like the Orgueil meteorite, but unlike the Murchison meteorite and asteroid Ryugu samples—suggesting preferential synthesis in ammonia-rich ices from the outer Solar System. The distribution of other N-heterocycles is consistent with extensive aqueous alteration on the parent body. High concentrations of urea underscore its role in N-heterocycle synthesis. Our findings offer important information on the prebiotic inventory of N-heterocycles in the Solar System.

Yasuhiro Oba

Long-Term Evaluation of Landsat 9 Oli Data Product Uniformity at Focal Plane Module-Boundaries Using Earth Scenes

The uniformity performance characteristic in remote sensing data products is a metric that helps evaluate how an image accurately represents radiometric responses to geophysical variability at the Earth’s surface or within the atmosphere. These uniformity attributes are used in Earth remote sensing science applications such as investigating water quality, land-cover/land-use classifications, and crop health assessments. To ensure these applications perform effectively, it is crucial to maintain and regularly assess the uniformity of calibrated remote sensing data products. In the Landsat missions, data from the onboard radiometric reference Solar diffuser device are used as the standard approach to derive the calibration parameters, ensuring the maintenance of both absolute radiance and radiometric uniformity through quarterly updates. This publication presents an alternative approach that leverages Earth scene data to assess the on-orbit uniformity performance of the Landsat 9 (L9) mission. The analysis characterizes uniformity at a specific set of spatial positions (the focal-plane boundary zones) that are intrinsic to the Operational Land Imager (OLI) focal plane design. By employing these Earth data statistics, the article further explores the temporal trends in the radiometric uniformity results. The results shown in this article demonstrate that for pushbroom imaging design systems with staggered sensor chip focal plane architectures, the co-registered pixels, i.e., overlapping measurements of the same ground target viewed by different detectors, offer a self-contained mechanism for assessing product uniformity. Remarkably, this alternative approach achieves a level of radiometric quality comparable to that delivered by a stable, well-characterized onboard Solar diffuser calibration device. The findings demonstrate the potential and capability of such Earth scene statistics in maintaining radiometric uniformity in calibrated data products to better than 1% (1-sigma) throughout the mission’s operational lifetime.

trend

Europa Propulsion Valve Seat Material Testing

The Europa mission and spacecraft design presented unique challenges for selection of valve seat materials that met the fluid compatibility requirements, and combined fluid compatibility and high radiation exposure level requirements. The Europa spacecraft pressurization system valves will be exposed to fully saturated propellant vapor for the duration of the mission. The effects of Nitrogen Tetroxide (NTO) and Monomethylhydrazine (MMH) propellant vapors on heritage valve seat materials, such as Vespel SP-1 and Polychlorotrifluoroethylene (PCTFE), were evaluated to determine if an alternate material is required. In liquid system applications, Teflon is the only available compatible valve seat material. Radiation exposure data for Teflon in an air or vacuum environment has been previously documented. Radiation exposure data for Teflon in an oxidizer environment such as NTO, was not available, and it was unknown whether the effects would be similar to those on air-exposed samples. Material testing was conducted by Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) to determine the effects of propellant vapor on heritage seat materials for pressurization valve applications, and the effects of combined radiation and NTO propellant exposure on Teflon. The results indicated that changes in heritage pressurization valve seat materials' properties rendered them unsuitable for the Europa application. The combined radiation and NTO exposure testing of Teflon produced results equivalent to combined radiation and air exposure results.

Brad M Addona

Simulated Lunar Gravity Testing of VIPER Loop Heat Pipe

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission consists of a rover designed to explore the lunar south pole. One of the main challenges faced by the rover during the lunar polar exploration is the adverse thermal environment. Temperatures can fluctuate more than a 100°C between day and night; potentially dropping to −246°C in permanent shadow regions. To maintain the rover components within temperature limits, VIPER’s Thermal Management System (TMS) relies heavily on Loop Heat Pipes (LHPs). To assist the design of the thermal management system, an Engineering Design Unit (EDU) LHP has been tested in several opportunities under thermal vacuum (TVAC) environment. Of particular interest was the LHP performance in lunar gravity. To that end, the EDU LHP was tested at the nominal orientation within the rover assembly, vertical, and inclined such that the gravitational component acting on the LHP evaporator and condenser was 1/6g (lunar gravity is 1/6 of Earth gravity) when compared to the vertical configuration. This paper will examine the LHP conductance as one the key parameters to assess the effect of the gravity on the LHP performance.

Loop Heat Pipe

Development of the Orion Life-Support Integration Facility (OLIF)

Testing the life support hardware of a vehicle that is going to take humans beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) in conditions similar to space is crucial. The Orion Life-Support Integration Facility (OLIF) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) was designed and built to test the Orion vehicle’s hardware and software as integrated systems to provide a complete Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) system-level qualification. The existing 11 Foot human rated vacuum chamber has been adapted to accommodate and integrate various qualification and flight like components of the Orion vehicle’s Air Revitalization System (ARS), Pressure Control System (PCS), Active Thermal Control System (ATCS) and the Orion Crew Survival System Suits (OCSS). The ultimate goal was to create an analog testbed that could safely support up to four test subjects in open “shirt-sleeve” or closed suit loop configurations and simulate Orion Cabin conditions. This integrated hardware/software ARS and PCS will help identify any technical issues that should be addressed prior to the Artemis-2 mission. This paper will discuss the history of Orion ECLSS hardware development testing in the 11 Foot Chamber, the challenge of integrating flight hardware and software control systems, and the capabilities that make it a unique, world class facility for NASA. It will provide an overview of past and future testing, and the lessons learned along the way.

Peter A Masi

Erosion Behavior of Ti-hBN Multifunctional Coatings in A Custom-Made Planetary Test Rig at Extreme Lunar Temperatures

Spacecraft landings and takeoffs on the lunar surface, along with extreme temperature variations between day and night (-196 to 150° C), cause high-velocity dust impacts and erosion, resulting in the premature failure of structures. Ti/2 vol% hBN coatings were deposited using atmospheric (APS) and vacuum plasma spray (VPS) using cryo-milled powder feedstock to protect the structural components. The erosion performance of coatings at extreme lunar temperature regimes (-150 to 150° C) was evaluated in a custom-made planetary erosion test rig (PETR) at low (50 mph) and high impact velocities (250 mph). The mass loss of VPS coatings was reduced by 50% compared to the APS coatings and 40% compared to the Ti6Al4V substrate. The cryogenic temperature induces brittleness in the material, rendering it susceptible to extreme conditions of material loss. The particle impact-deformation behavior was captured using a high-speed camera to study the erosion mechanism. This analysis revealed chipping in substrates and brittle APS coatings, while particles rebounding and embedding were observed in VPS coatings. Energy calculations, aided by particle trajectory tracking from the high-speed camera, have conclusively shown that VPS coatings absorb 5–10% more energy than APS coatings during erosion tests. A modified erosion index was developed incorporating the fracture toughness and temperatures. New erosion models for brittle and ductile target materials are proposed for developing erosion-resistant material systems.

Abhijith Kunneparambil Sukumaran

Hybrid Modeling Study on Grain Evolution in the Metal Welding Process and Its Potential Lunar Application

Metal is most commonly used structural material in a wide range of spacecraft, and welding is the principal method for joining metal components into functional systems. However, conducting welding experiments under extreme environments—such as microgravity or vacuum conditions in space—is prohibitively expensive and experimentally challenging. To overcome these limitations, multi-physics computational welding models provide a cost-effective and versatile alternative. In this work, the authors have developed a coupled thermal (fluid) microstructure simulation framework to model metal welding under varying gravity conditions. The framework integrates a mixed-mode heat transfer formulation (conduction, convection, and radiation) with molten pool fluid dynamics, enabling accurate prediction of temperature fields and weld-pool geometry. A grain growth model is further incorporated to capture the spatial and temporal evolution of microstructure, including grain size distribution and morphological transitions during solidification. This approach provides detailed insight into molten pool evolution and grain-level microstructure development throughout the welding process. By explicitly parameterizing environmental conditions, the model supports extrapolation to off-Earth manufacturing scenarios such as welding on the lunar surface. Tantalum—chosen in this study due to its high melting point, oxidation resistance, and mechanical stability at elevated temperatures—serves as the material system for model demonstration. Beyond Tantalum, the integrated multi-physics framework offers broad applicability for predictive welding simulations of various structural and refractory metals or alloys used in extreme terrestrial or extraterrestrial environments.

kinetic Monte Carlo (SPPARKS)

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Loop Heat Pipe

A Simplified Model of VIPER Thermal Management System. Part II: Integrated Vehicle

NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) thermal management system (TMS) relies on four loop heat pipes (LHPs) to transport electronic waste heat to the vehicle cooling radiative surface and avoid overheating. The TMS has also ten constant conductance heat pipes (CCHPs) dedicated to balance the thermal load within the internal environment where the avionics boxes are mounted, also called warm electronic box (WEB), and to transport the heat from two of the science payload instruments. The TMS also uses two thermal straps to thermally link the batteries to the WEB. These thermal components, in addition to heaters, thermostat, multi-layer insulation (MLIs), and isolators forms the core of the VIPER TMS. The complex heat transport balance managed by the TMS is challenging to characterize and model. The more fidelity and granularity of a model, the more costly the computational resources needed and the longer the simulation and modeling time. When the priority is to provide quick but reliable assessments of the thermal performance or real time thermal feedback for training of console operators, simplified modeling tools are needed. To satisfy that need, this paper describes the effort to develop and correlate a model of VIPER TMS based on control volume approach. The correlation effort in particular focuses on hibernation, cold thermal balance, and hot thermal balance data from the integrated vehicle thermal vacuum (TVAC) test. Thus, the correlated model captures the heat leaks during hibernations and the performance at two extremes, bounding, operating scenarios.

Thermal Modeling

Lithium Ion Battery Design and Safety

This viewgraph presentation makes several recommendations to ensure the safe and effective design of Lithium ion cell batteries. Large lithium ion cells require pressure switches and small cells require pressure disconnects and other safety devices with the ability to instantly interrupt flow. Other suggestions include specifications for batteries and battery chargers.

Au, George

A Dispersion-Strengthened Low-Density Niobium Alloy and Its Elevated Temperature Mechanical Performance

In response to the elevated-temperature and weight-reduction demands of modern aerospace applications, a novel oxide-dispersion-strengthened low-density niobium alloy (LDNb-ODS) was fabricated using laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF). To overcome powder procurement barriers, L-PBF feedstock was produced by blending commercial Nb521, Ti64, and Cr powder with Y2O3 nanoparticles via resonant acoustic mixing. Following L-PBF and a 1400°C vacuum heat treatment, the alloy achieved a density of 6.73 g/cc and a fine mean grain size of 4.62 µm stabilized by uniform ~30 nm yttria dispersoids. Microstructural analysis revealed a chemically inhomogeneous build with lack-of-fusion defects and a titanium (Ti) shift from a nominal 31.5 wt% in the starting powder blend to 24.8 wt% in the printed part due to preferential Ti loss during printing. Elevated-temperature tensile testing demonstrated that LDNb-ODS maintained a superior specific yield strength of 60-85 MPa/(g/cc) up to 800°C, outperforming nickel-based alloys Ni625, Ni230, and GRX-810. Between 870°C and 950°C, its specific strength surpassed both Ni718 and Ni625. In rapid stress-rupture testing at 1093°C and 20.7 MPa, uncoated LDNb-ODS survived 21.4 hours (a tenfold increase over legacy C-103) while an R512E silicide coating extended rupture life to 84.8 hours, confirming that oxidation accelerates low-stress failure. These findings demonstrate that additive manufacturing of LDNb-ODS provides a viable, lightweight alternative to nickel-based superalloys for high-temperature (>850°C) aerospace components.

Low Density Niobium Alloy

PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.

Steven A Tobin