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DOE OSTI2021

Tritium Betavoltaic Powered Sensor Platforms: Power Augmentation with Scintillating Particles

Betavoltaics (BV) are long-life power sources that typically convert beta particle radiation into electricity. Largely, the radioactive decays within the source go unharvested by the device. This work seeks to augment the power generation of BV devices by integration of scintillating particles within the radiative getter to convert beta emission which would otherwise not leave the getter into usable light for power generation. Silica-covered barium fluoride scintillating particles were integrated into a tritiated water getter. Power generation was increased from 100s of nW to µW levels with the addition of 0.2 wt. % particles into the getter. Nanowatt-scale sensor platforms were demonstrated with the µW BV devices and the maximum possible lifetime of such platforms was estimated. As this technique enables higher power density BV devices from conventional Si semiconductors (compared to wider bandgap BVs), the further implementation may lower the barrier-to-deployment of these long-life power/sensor platforms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptation of virtual synchronous generators to dynamic conditions in power grids

Virtual synchronous generators (VSGs) are widely adopted as grid-forming controls for inverter-based resources. However, when grid conditions vary significantly as characterized by changes in short-circuit ratio (SCR) and the reactance-to-resistance (X/R) ratio, fixed-gain designs and the commonly used P–Q decoupling assumption can become inaccurate. Such conditions can degrade transient power performance, leading to oscillations, prolonged settling, and overshoot, particularly in stiff-grid operating points. This paper quantifies how grid strength and impedance-dependent coupling affect the active–reactive power dynamics of a conventional VSG over a broad range of SCR and X/R values. An adaptive VSG tuning framework is then developed by combining (i) a coupling-explicit, impedance-parameterized state-space model to enable systematic controller synthesis, (ii) a full-state-feedback law designed via pole placement to meet prescribed damping and settling-time specifications, and (iii) a physics-informed neural network (PINN)–based online grid-impedance estimator that updates controller gains in real time as grid conditions vary. Offline simulations in MATLAB/Simulink and real-time validation on an OPAL-RT platform show that the proposed method preserves consistent damping and settling behavior with reduced overshoot across wide SCR and X/R ranges, compared with fixed-gain VSG baselines.

Adaptive control↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2025

Sulfur outgassing and in-gassing in lunar orange glass beads and implications for 33S “Anomaly” in the Moon

Our recent investigations have discovered inward diffusion (in-gassing) of moderately volatile elements (MVEs; e.g., Na, K and Cu) from volcanic gas into volcanic beads/droplets. In this work, we examine the distribution of sulfur in lunar orange glass beads. Our analyses reveal that sulfur exhibits a non-uniform distribution across the beads, forming “U” or “W” shaped profiles typical of in-gassing. A model developed to assess sulfur contributions from different sources (original magmatic sulfur versus atmospheric in-gassed sulfur) in the orange beads indicates that atmospheric sulfur in-gassed during eruption contributes approximately 9–24 % to the total sulfur content of an orange bead, averaging around 16 %. This in-gassed sulfur is derived from the eruption plume, where atmospheric sulfur could undergo photochemical reactions induced by UV light, leading to mass independent fractionation and a distinct sulfur isotope signature. Interestingly, a recent study discovered a small mass independent isotope fractionation of sulfur in lunar orange glass beads in drive tube 74002/1 and a lack of such mass independent isotope fractionation in black glass beads in the same lunar sample. This finding contrasts with sulfur in lunar basalts, which typically exhibit mass dependent fractionation. With our work, the observed mass independent fractionation signal in sulfur isotopes of orange beads can be attributed to the in-gassing of photolytic sulfur in the optically thin part of the eruption plume where UV light can penetrate. Using the sulfur isotope data of lunar orange beads, we estimate that the Δ33S value of atmospheric sulfur is approximately −0.18 ‰. Our study provides new insights into the complex dynamics of volatile elements in lunar volcanic processes, highlighting the role of in-gassing in shaping sulfur isotope signatures in volcanic glass beads.

Xue Su↗

DOE OSTI2026

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Measurement of Cl − Activity in Metal Chloride Molten Salts using a Cl 2 /Cl − Electrode

Molten metal chloride salts are promising candidates for advanced heat transfer fluids in generation IV nuclear reactors and beyond. The activity of the chloride ion in the salt has a large influence on the redox characteristics of the corresponding molten salt. There exists a knowledge gap for the direct measurement of chlorobasicity (Lewis basicity) in molten-salt mixtures. Here, the focus of this work was to develop a Cl 2 /Cl − electrode for the direct measurement of chloride activity in molten metal-chloride salt mixtures. The LiCl–KCl eutectic system was utilized as the reference melt to determine the change in chloride ion activity as increasing concentrations of MgCl 2 are added to the LiCl–KCl eutectic working electrode. The results of the measurements indicated a reduction in chloride ion activity as the concentration of magnesium chloride increased, consistent with the complexation of free chlorides by Lewis acidic magnesium cationic species. The Temkin model was used to estimate the thermodynamic properties of MgCl 4 2− complex.

Chloride↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

DOE OSTI2026

Collision Tracking in OpenMC: Methods and Applications in Neutron Noise, Neutron Imaging, Time-of-Flight, and Multiplicity Counting

We present the development and application of a collision tracking feature within the OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport code, designed for diverse applications such as neutron spectroscopy, scatter camera system, neutron noise, and multiplicity counting simulations. This feature enables the tracking of individual particle collisions, with potential applications in nuclear nonproliferation, reactor physics, and nuclear security. Additionally, the feature holds potential for the calibration of neutron detectors, specifically in converting light output into energy deposited within the detectors. The implementation consists of a set of filters—such as reaction type, energy, cell, and material—that constrain the set of collisions that are tracked, extensions to the Python API to enable simple input specification, and support for writing either OpenMC’s native HDF5-based format or the Monte Carlo particle list format. This feature was added to the official OpenMC release in version 0.15.3. In this work, the feature will be applied to showcase scenarios such as time-of-flight simulations, scatter-camera imaging for neutron source localization, neutron-noise analysis to extract integral kinetic parameters such as the prompt decay constant α, and multiplicity counting to estimate the mass of special nuclear materials. Ultimately, this feature aims to expand the application scope of open-source Monte Carlo particle transport codes such as OpenMC.

Monte Carlo code↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multilevel Conditional Disturbance Rejection Control for Satellite Attitude Tracking

Recently, the conditional disturbance rejection controller (CDRC) was proposed to improve control performance by leveraging disturbances that have beneficial effects on the system. However, it only considers disturbances acting on the state variable directly influenced by them. Although fast convergence of this state can be achieved with the CDRC, it may unintentionally affect the convergence of the output (i.e., the primary state). Here, in this article, a multilevel CDRC is proposed to enhance satellite attitude control performance by accounting for the effect of disturbances on both attitude (output) and angular velocity. The extended state observer is employed to estimate the lumped disturbance, including the modeling errors and external disturbances. Then, a backstepping-based controller with the multilevel disturbance rejection law (ML-DRL) is designed for attitude tracking. The ML-DRL is developed to improve the control performance by using a disturbance with a damping effect on both attitude and velocity. Faster convergence of attitude and velocity can be achieved by conditionally compensating for the disturbance. The stability of the proposed control method is analyzed by demonstrating that the errors are bounded as time tends to infinity. The attitude control performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical examples conducted using the MATLAB/Simulink Multibody tool.

Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compatibility of Type 304H Stainless Steel in Static Molten FLiBe for Inertial Confinement Fusion Reactors: Role of Impurities and Redox Control

Molten fluoride salts, such as FLiBe (LiF-BeF2), are promising candidates for tritium breeding and heat transfer in fusion reactors, but corrosion of structural materials remains a major challenge. This study investigates the corrosion behavior of austenitic stainless steel 304H in purified and NiF2-containing FLiBe at 500°C and 600°C, focusing on the effects of impurities and redox control. Exposure to purified FLiBe resulted in the concurrent depletion of Cr, Mn, and Fe, with corrosion at 500 °C dominated by the combined oxide formation and elemental dissolution, while at 600°C elemental depletion was predominant. The addition of a controlled NiF2 impurity significantly accelerated corrosion at both temperatures, demonstrating the sensitivity of 304H to the salt redox state. Beryllium additions were effective in mitigating corrosion for both baseline and NiF2-containing FLiBe; minimal depletion of Cr, Mn, and Fe occurred with Be additions as low as 2.5 mg (147 wppm), and no NiBe intermetallics formed at 5 mg (294 wppm), indicating that small Be inventories can provide substantial protection without deleterious phase formation. Thermodynamic equilibrium and coupled thermodynamic-kinetic analyses at the salt-alloy interface suggested low corrosion rates in systems with limited hydrogen fluoride (HF) generation, highlighting the importance of salt redox control. Estimates for a Be addition rate were calculated for the HYLIFE-II fusion reactor that can mitigate corrosion-induced degradation, assuming complete conversion of tritium to tritium fluoride (TF). Overall, 304H shows reasonable compatibility with FLiBe under optimized redox conditions. These results provide quantitative guidance for material selection and salt management in fusion blanket and heat exchanger systems and motivate validation under flowing, nonisothermal, and irradiated conditions.

Pillai, Rishi [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000243688197)↗

DOE OSTI2023

AutoSourceID-Classifier: Star-galaxy classification using a convolutional neural network with spatial information

Aims.Traditional star-galaxy classification techniques often rely on feature estimation from catalogs, a process susceptible to introducing inaccuracies, thereby potentially jeopardizing the classification’s reliability. Certain galaxies, especially those not manifesting as extended sources, can be misclassified when their shape parameters and flux solely drive the inference. We aim to create a robust and accurate classification network for identifying stars and galaxies directly from astronomical images. Methods.The AutoSourceID-Classifier (ASID-C) algorithm developed for this work uses 32x32 pixel single filter band source cutouts generated by the previously developed AutoSourceID-Light (ASID-L) code. By leveraging convolutional neural networks (CNN) and additional information about the source position within the full-field image, ASID-C aims to accurately classify all stars and galaxies within a survey. Subsequently, we employed a modified Platt scaling calibration for the output of the CNN, ensuring that the derived probabilities were effectively calibrated, delivering precise and reliable results. Results.We show that ASID-C, trained on MeerLICHT telescope images and using the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS) morphological classification, is a robust classifier and outperforms similar codes such as SourceExtractor. To facilitate a rigorous comparison, we also trained an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model on tabular features extracted by SourceExtractor. While this XGBoost model approaches ASID-C in performance metrics, it does not offer the computational efficiency and reduced error propagation inherent in ASID-C’s direct image-based classification approach. ASID-C excels in low signal-to-noise ratio and crowded scenarios, potentially aiding in transient host identification and advancing deep-sky astronomy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗

NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining Stellar Elemental Abundances from DESI Spectra with the Data-driven Payne

Abstract Stellar abundances for a large number of stars provide key information for the study of Galactic formation history. Large spectroscopic surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and LAMOST take median-to-low-resolution (R≲ 5000) spectra in the full optical wavelength range for millions of stars. However, the line-blending effect in these spectra causes great challenges for elemental abundance determination. Here we employDD-Payne, a data-driven method regularized by differential spectra from stellar physical models, to the DESI early data release spectra for stellar abundance determination. Our implementation delivers 15 labels, including effective temperatureT eff , surface gravity log g , microturbulence velocityv mic , and the abundances for 12 individual elements, namely C, N, O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni. Given a spectral signal-to-noise ratio of 100 per pixel, the internal precisions of the label estimates are about 20 K forT eff , 0.05 dex for log g , and 0.05 dex for most elemental abundances. These results agree with the theoretical limits from the Crámer–Rao bound calculation within a factor of 2. The majority of the accreted halo stars contributed by the Gaia–Enceladus–Sausage are discernible from the disk and in situ halo populations in the resultant [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] and [Al/Fe]–[Fe/H] abundance spaces. We also provide distance and orbital parameters for the sample stars, which spread over a distance out to ∼100 kpc. The DESI sample has a significantly higher fraction of distant (or metal-poor) stars than the other existing spectroscopic surveys, making it a powerful data set for studying the Galactic outskirts. The catalog is publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗