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Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with the Mongird et al. paper entitled "Can US power grid expansion avoid prime agricultural lands?" and is organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSIxRP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_rp_score_raster.tif solar_msi_rp_score_raster.tif wind_msi_rp_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗

Divergent accumulation of amino sugars and lignins mediated by soil functional carbon pools under tropical forest conversion

Tropical primary forests are being destroyed at an alarming rate and converted for other land uses which is expected to greatly influence soil carbon (C) cycling. However, our understanding of how tropical forest conversions affect the accumulation of compounds in soil functional C pools remains unclear. Here, we collected soils from primary forests (PF), secondary forests (SF), oil-palm (OP), and rubber plantations (RP), and assessed the accumulation of plant- and microbial-derived compounds within soil organic carbon (SOC), particulate (POC) and mineral-associated (MAOC) organic C. PF conversion to RP greatly decreased SOC, POC, and MAOC concentrations, whereas conversion to SF increased POC concentrations and decreased MAOC concentrations, and conversion to OP only increased POC concentrations. PF conversion to RP decreased lignin concentrations and increased amino sugar concentrations in SOC pools which increased the stability of SOC, whereas conversion to SF only increased the lignin concentrations in POC, and conversion to OP just increased lignin concentrations in POC and decreased it in MAOC. We observed divergent dynamics of amino sugars (decrease) and lignin (increase) in SOC with increasing SOC. Only lignin concentrations increased in POC with increasing POC and amino sugars concentrations decreased in MAOC with increasing MAOC. Conversion to RP significantly decreased soil enzyme activities and microbial biomasses. Lignin accumulation was associated with microbial properties, whereas amino sugar accumulation was mainly associated with soil nutrients and stoichiometries. These results suggest that the divergent accumulation of plant- and microbial-derived C in SOC was delivered by the distribution and original composition of functional C pools under forest conversions. Forest conversions changed the formation and stabilization processes of SOC in the long run which was associated with converted plantations and management. As a result, the important roles of soil nutrients and stoichiometry also provide a natural-based solution to enhance SOC sequestration via nutrient management in tropical forests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

From pixels to patterns: Coupling Optical Coherence Tomography and machine learning for monitoring coastal wetland root systems

Coastal wetlands are crucial in shoreline stabilization, carbon sequestration, and storm protection. Yet, due to limitations in traditional destructive sampling techniques, the belowground biomass (live root mass) and necromass (dead and decaying roots) remain difficult to assess in coastal wetlands, limiting our understanding on coastal resilience, nutrient cycling, and soil structure. This study employs Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) as a high-resolution imaging technique to analyze root biomass and necromass in the Terrebonne Basin, Louisiana. A Random Forest (RF) model was developed to classify root health states based on OCT-derived features, achieving an accuracy of 70% in distinguishing live from dead root segments. The results demonstrate that OCT, combined with ML, offers a promising novel approach to root analysis, providing fine-scale insights into root morphology and decay patterns that are not easily captured by conventional methods. This research lays the foundation for future integration of OCT with complementary imaging modalities such as X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) and advanced ML algorithms to enhance classification accuracy and scalability. Future work aims to expand the dataset diversity across different wetland types and apply the methodology for large-scale, repeatable assessments of root biomass turnover and accumulation, with important implications for wetland monitoring, conservation, and restoration under changing environmental conditions.

AI/ML↗

Responses of Boreal Forest Ecosystems and Permafrost to Climate Change and Disturbances: A Modeling Perspective

The north circumpolar region contains a large amount of carbon. This carbon storage is vulnerable due to permafrost degradation and wildfire disturbances under ongoing and projected climate change. Climate warming and wildfires change soil organic horizons gradually or abruptly, and modify permafrost thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry, ecosystem structures, functions, and capability of sequestrating rising atmospheric CO2. Land models do not fully take accounts of these interactions and its complexity in the high latitude. This chapter describes a terrestrial ecosystem model with dynamic organic soil module (DOS-TEM) and its unique freezing-thawing algorithm, and presents key results of its applications mainly in boreal forests of Alaska. The DOS-TEM explicitly considers interactions of soil thermal and hydrological processes, permafrost degradation and the direct and indirect effects of wildfire disturbances, in addition to soil–plant C and N cycles. We first introduce four modules of DOS-TEM, focusing on its disturbance module and coupling with a dynamic organic soil module. Then we describe and validate DOS-TEM’s freezing-thawing algorithm and development based on two-directional Stefan algorithm (TDSA). Finally, we apply the DOS-TEM at site and region scales, with a focus on model ability to dynamically simulate soil organic thickness under warming and wildfires, and consequent impacts on permafrost in the Yukon River Basin. We conclude that land surface model development is urgently needed to include other critical landscape processes, such as thermalkarst and other disturbances, to synchronize thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical processes, and to incorporate an advanced understanding of biospheric feedbacks to atmosphere and ecosystems. Such a complexity of modeling scope is plausible with advancement of high performance computing.

Yi, Shuhua↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Soil aggregate-mediated microbial responses to long-term warming

Soil microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a combination of growth and respiration, which may respond differently to climate change depending on physical protection of soil carbon (C) and its availability to microbes. In a mid-latitude hardwood forest in central Massachusetts, 27 years of soil warming (+5 °C) has resulted in C loss and altered soil organic matter (SOM) quality, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this work, we hypothesized that long-term warming reduces physical aggregate protection of SOM, microbial CUE, and its temperature sensitivity. Soil was separated into macroaggregate (250–2000 μm) and microaggregate (<250 μm) fractions, and CUE was measured with 18 O enriched water (H 2 18 O) in samples incubated at 15 and 25 °C for 24 h. We found that long-term warming reduced soil C and nitrogen concentrations and extracellular enzyme activity in macroaggregates, but did not affect physical protection of SOM. Long-term warming showed little effect on CUE or microbial biomass turnover time because it reduced both growth and respiration. However, CUE was less temperature sensitive in macroaggregates from the warmed compared to the control plots. Our findings suggest that microbial thermal responses to long-term warming occur mostly in soil compartments where SOM is less physically protected and thus more vulnerable to microbial degradation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeochemical and plant trait mechanisms drive enhanced methane emissions in response to whole-ecosystem warming

Abstract. Climate warming perturbs ecosystem carbon (C) cycling, causing both positive and negative feedbacks on greenhouse gas emissions. In 2016, we began a tidal marsh field experiment in two vegetation communities to investigate the mechanisms by which whole-ecosystem warming alters C gain, via plant-driven sequestration in soils, and C loss, primarily via methane (CH4) emissions. Here, we report the results from the first 4 years. As expected, warming of 5.1 ∘C more than doubled CH4 emissions in both plant communities. We propose this was caused by a combination of four mechanisms: (i) a decrease in the proportion of CH4 consumed by CH4 oxidation, (ii) more C substrates available for methanogenesis, (iii) reduced competition between methanogens and sulfate-reducing bacteria, and (iv) indirect effects of plant traits. Plots dominated by Spartina patens consistently emitted more CH4 than plots dominated by Schoenoplectus americanus, indicating key differences in the roles these common wetland plants play in affecting anaerobic soil biogeochemistry and suggesting that plant composition can modulate coastal wetland responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nutrient and carbon concentrations in dated soil cores at US-OWC Ameriflux wetland site (OWC NERR)

Soil cores were sampled at the Old Woman Creek (OWC) National Estuarine Research Reserve at the south shore of Lake Erie, near Huron, Ohio, USA. OWC is a temperate mineral soil marsh. We dated the soil cores using lead isotope analysis and measured the concentrations of carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus) throughout the core depths. We analyzed 36 cores, sampled along three transects at areas of the wetland with different hydrological regimes. Each transect included three coring sites at different water depth categories (shallow, intermediate deep) with four core samples per coring site. The data can be used to determine the carbon sequestration rates and nutrient accumulation rates, at multiple locations throughout OWC wetland.Dataset, in csv format, with data variables in columns, and different cores and core depths slices in rows, includes results from 36 sediment cores (0-30 cm depth) taken at 9 locations (4 replicates at each location) along 3 gradients of water depth (shallow, intermediate, deep), each at a different hydrologic location (outflow, backflow, middle). At each depth slice within a core, we provide depth, date (using 210Pb), bulk density, and the concentrations of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, d13C, and d15N.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

InSAR Monitoring to Evaluate Surface Changes with CO 2 Storage in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan (Volume II.E)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. This report describes the effort under MRCP to evaluate the potential use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for monitoring the outcome of injected CO 2 at the Dover 33 reef near Gaylord, Michigan. InSAR is a satellite-based technology that provides high-precision information on the movement of ground surface in areas with high radar coherence (e.g., roads, buildings, bare soils). Depending on the setting, this technique may provide a useful tool for characterizing reservoirs by measuring surface deformations from activities such as brine water disposal; production of water, oil, and/or gas; and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol produced via fermentation of sugars derived from shrub willow (Salix ssp.) hot water extraction in the Northeast United States

Abstract Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been on the rise for more than a century. Bioenergy crops are seen by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as an essential part of the solution to addressing climate change. To understand the potential impact of shrub willow ( Salix spp . ) crop in the northeast United States, effective and transparent life cycle assessment of these systems needs to occur. Results Here we show, ethanol produced from the fermentation of sugars from hot water extract of willow grown on cropland can sequester 0.012 ± 0.003 kg CO 2eq MJ −1 for a supply system incorporating summer harvest and storage. Despite decreases in soil organic carbon when willow is instead grown on grassland, the produced fuel still can provide significant climate benefits compared to gasoline. Conclusions Shrub willow converted to ethanol can be a carbon negative source of transportation fuel when the electricity and heat required for the conversion process are generated from renewable biomass. The sequestration of carbon in the belowground portion of the plants is essential for the negative GHG balance for cropland and low GHG emissions in grassland.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Total ecosystem carbon stocks at the marine-terrestrial interface: Blue carbon of the Pacific Northwest Coast, United States

The coastal ecosystems of temperate North America provide a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration. Yet, little data exist for the carbon stocks of major tidal wetland types in the Pacific Northwest, United States. We quantified the total ecosystem carbon stocks (TECS) in seagrass, emergent marshes, and forested tidal wetlands, occurring along increasing elevation and decreasing salinity gradients. The TECS included the total aboveground carbon stocks and the entire soil profile (to as deep as 3 m). TECS significantly increased along the elevation and salinity gradients: 217 ± 60 Mg C/ha for seagrass (low elevation/high salinity), 417 ± 70 Mg C/ha for low marsh, 551 ± 47 Mg C/ha for high marsh, and 1,064 ± 38 Mg C/ha for tidal forest (high elevation/low salinity). Soil carbon stocks accounted for >98% of TECS in the seagrass and marsh communities and 78% in the tidal forest. Soils in the 0–100 cm portion of the profile accounted for only 48%–53% of the TECS in seagrasses and marshes and 34% of the TECS in tidal forests. Thus, the commonly applied limit defining TECS to a 100 cm depth would greatly underestimate both carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from land-use conversion. The large carbon stocks coupled with other ecosystem services suggest value in the conservation and restoration of temperate zone tidal wetlands through climate change mitigation strategies. However, the findings suggest that long-term sea level rise effects such as tidal inundation and increased porewater salinity will likely decrease ecosystem carbon stocks in the absence of upslope wetland migration buffer zones.

Kauffman, J Boone↗

Investigating carbon stabilization in soils via mineral adsorption: What are we missing when we define mineral associated organic matter

Understanding carbon (C) fluxes released from soil to atmosphere is critical to regulating global climate change. Soil minerals play a crucial role in stabilizing C, based on recent studies which have found that mineral associated C can be stored in soils for decades to centuries longer than non-mineral associated C. We aim to maximize C sequestration via mineral adsorption in soils. To achieve this objective, it is important to understand the potential impacts of C stabilization via adsorption to mineral surfaces. Particularly, investigating the quantitative impacts of C sorption to minerals is novel to understanding and implementing multi-scale biogeochemical processes of C stabilization in soils. We will conduct a literature review on potential impacts of C sorption to minerals, thereby contributing to the net C storage in soils. Our findings will allow us to quantitatively understand soil C changes and durability at molecular and ecosystem scales, fulfilling existing scientific gaps in the community as well as interests of sponsors, such as DOE-BER.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Underground sources of drinking water chemistry changes in response to potential CO 2 leakage

The purpose of this study was to quantify changes to underground sources of drinking water (USDW) quality in response to potential CO 2 leakage from geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) reservoirs. Here, the developed a framework of combined laboratory experiments and reactive transport simulations and used this framework to evaluate the Ogallala aquifer overlying the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), an active GCS site, as a case study. Using chemical reaction parameters obtained from laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, site-specific mechanisms of CO 2 -water-sediment interactions at the USDW aquifer were interpreted. Long-term risks of potential CO 2 leakage were then evaluated with field-scale numerical models using the regional hydrogeological characteristics and reaction parameters obtained from our experiments and simulations. Results suggest that carbonate mineral impurity and cation exchange are key mechanisms for interactions between CO 2 and the aquifer sediment. Additionally, for a large leakage rate of 0.1 % injection from one leaky well, the leakage plume might impact an area of 300 m in diameter and significantly affect the local water quality by changing pH and cation concentrations (e.g., Zn, Ba and Sr). After leakage ceases, the zone of impacted fluids would not migrate significantly in subsequent decades due to a low regional groundwater flowrate (for this case study). The relatively small area of impact might not be detected in a monitoring well given the broader spacing in a typical field scenario. Effective early leakage detection may require additional tools, e.g., borehole CO 2 movement, four-dimensional seismicity, CO 2 soil flux, samples from deeper aquifers, etc., to ensure effective leakage detection and long-term safety of GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Plant Biosystems Design for a Carbon-Neutral Bioeconomy

Our society faces multiple daunting challenges including finding sustainable solutions towards climate change mitigation; efficient production of food, biofuels, and biomaterials; maximizing land-use efficiency; and enabling a sustainable bioeconomy. Plants can provide environmentally and economically sustainable solutions to these challenges due to their inherent capabilities for photosynthetic capture of atmospheric CO 2 , allocation of carbon to various organs and partitioning into various chemical forms, including contributions to total soil carbon. In order to enhance crop productivity and optimize chemistry simultaneously in the above- and belowground plant tissues, transformative biosystems design strategies are needed. Concerted research efforts will be required for accelerating the development of plant cultivars, genotypes, or varieties that are cooptimized in the contexts of biomass-derived fuels and/or materials aboveground and enhanced carbon sequestration belowground. Here, we briefly discuss significant knowledge gaps in our process understanding and the potential of synthetic biology in enabling advancements along the fundamental to applied research arc. Ultimately, a convergence of perspectives from academic, industrial, government, and consumer sectors will be needed to realize the potential merits of plant biosystems design for a carbon neutral bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Laboratory Testbeds Simulating Real-World Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Climate change leads to drastic variations in the environment that can threaten food security. To protect the security and prosperity of the environment, new agricultural practices that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions need to be developed. Agriculture plays a large role in the emissions of greenhouse gases, thus a need for new practices. At present, testing landscape management practices for carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are expensive because such tests often require intricate field experiments. Laboratory tests on landscape management practices often fail to simulate and accurately represent the natural systems researchers intend to study. There are methods that can be used to make these laboratory tests more closely replicate natural systems for the improvement of agricultural lands used in biofuel and food production. The goal of this project is to develop a laboratory testbed replicating field conditions that will mimic field greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal, we used soil cores taken from agricultural and marginal lands, then attached fiberglass wicks to improve the drainage system in the soil core to simulate a more natural hydraulic system. The soil cores with the wicks were used to compared to greenhouse gas emissions observed in the field. Our preliminary results suggest that the soil carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flux from the agricultural land site were comparable to the soil cores equipped with the drainage wicks. The data suggests that laboratory testbeds can be used to mimic field greenhouse gas emissions if parameters, such as soil water content were in a set range. The laboratory testbed produces similar greenhouse gas emissions to the agricultural site when the soil water content was between 15-25%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Replacing liquid fossil fuels and hydrocarbon chemical feedstocks with liquid biofuels from large-scale nuclear biorefineries

Liquid fossil fuels (1) enable transportation and (2) provide energy for mobile work platforms and (3) supply dispatchable energy to highly variable demand (seasonal heating and peak electricity). We describe a system to replace liquid fossil fuels with drop-in biofuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Because growing biomass removes carbon dioxide from the air, there is no net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from burning biofuels. In addition, with proper management, biofuel systems can sequester large quantities of carbon as soil organic matter, improving soil fertility and providing other environmental services. In the United States liquid biofuels can potentially replace all liquid fossil fuels. The required system has two key features. First, the heat and hydrogen for conversion of biomass into high-quality liquid fuels is provided by external low-carbon energy sources--nuclear energy or fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration. Using external energy inputs can almost double the energy content of the liquid fuel per unit of biomass feedstock by fully converting the carbon in biomass into a hydrocarbon fuel. Second, competing effectively with fossil fuels requires very large biorefineries—the equivalent of a 250,000 barrel per day oil refinery. This requires commercializing methods for converting local biomass into high-density storable feedstocks that can be economically shipped to large-scale biorefineries.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon flow through energycane agroecosystems established post-intensive agriculture

As part of an integrated energy and climate system, biomass production for bioenergy based on the tropical perennial C4 grass energycane can both offset fossil fuels and store soil carbon (C). We measured energycane yields, root biomass, soil C pools, and soil C stocks in a 4 year field trial and modeled C flow from plants to soils in the surface layer of no-till energycane planted after more than a century of intensive sugarcane agriculture. Aboveground yields ranged from 16.7 to 19.0 Mg C/ha over the 4 year trial. Although total C stocks did not significantly differ in the surface layer (approx. 0–20 cm) during the study, C in free and occluded light fractions decreased, whereas C in the mineral-rich dense fraction increased over 4 years. Belowground system inputs, estimated from measurements and informed by convergence in the final soil fraction model, were set to 2.5 Mg C ha -1 year -1 . With this input value, we estimated that surface soils retained photosynthetically fixed C predominantly within the mineral-associated organic matter pool for a mean and median transit time of 177 and 110 years, respectively. Although we did not model C flow to deep soil layers (approx. 0–100 cm), observed C accumulation (11.4 Mg C ha -1 year -1 ) and root growth down to 120 cm suggest that soil processes and resulting C sequestration at the surface are likely to persist deeper into the soil profile. Energycane, as a strong candidate for climate change mitigation and land degradation remediation, showed high biomass yields and allocation of resources to roots, with sequestered soil C expected to persist for over a century.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗