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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC -Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study

To the end of 2019, 40 years NASA climate reanalysis data sets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will be available at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 consists atmosphere, land, and ocean data, which may be used for the studies ranging from the short scale weather events to the large scale decadal vulnerabilities. The hourly products, such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and aerosols etc., have been used widely to study extreme events.In supporting users from broad communities, GES DISC have developed various data access services, including subsetter for downloading only data of interest with preferred format; OPeNDAP - for machine-to-machine data access; and Giovanni- for online visualization and analysis, etc. A big challenge for extreme study is to downloading and processing long-term hourly or daily data. The data downloading performance is not very satisfied by many users with current services and the native archived data structure. Late June 2019, many people in Europe had experienced extreme heat waves. The temperatures in several countries exceeded 40°C (104°F). For example, MERRA-2 shows that the near surface daily maximum temperature of June 28 2019 over Marseille, a city in southern France, reached 41.1 °C (106°F), which is the record breaking temperature in the last 40 years. GES DISC is working together with domain science experts to improve the performance of long time series access, making analysis ready data sets in supporting application researches, such as extreme study. In this presentation, using Europe heat wave as an example, we will show prototype of the in developing service for finding extremes from near 40 years MERRA-2 data at a given location. MERRA-2 data can be accessed from NASA GES DISC(https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) by search keyword "MERRA-2".

Shen, Suhung↗
DOE OSTI2023

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 6: Universal Access to Safe and Comfortable Home Temperatures

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and cooling technologies as means to increase access to safe and comfortable home temperatures. Lack of cooling access and use can have severe health impacts on building occupants during heat waves. Specifically, NREL developed and used a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We compared a baseline scenario with seven upgrade scenarios. Five scenarios cooled the entire household and featured cooling systems at varying efficiency levels with various improvements to the envelope, roof, and shading, and two scenarios cooled a single room in a household with no prior cooling using either a room air-conditioning or a heat pump system. For each scenario, we evaluated impacts on utility bills, payback periods, and changes in energy burdens, as well as ability to achieve safe and comfortable temperatures. We also examined the effects of building types (multifamily vs. single-family) on indoor air temperatures. Based on the results of modeling, analysis, and community guidance, we identified six short-term and two long-term strategies for improving access to building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for Los Angeles' low-income households during heat waves. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

air conditioning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2004

Recent History of Large-Scale Ecosystem Disturbances in North America Derived from the AVHRR Satellite Record

Ecosystem structure and function are strongly impacted by disturbance events, many of which in North America are associated with seasonal temperature extremes, wildfires, and tropical storms. This study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major ecosystem disturbance events and regimes. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide has been computed at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 2000 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 8-km globally. Potential disturbance events were identified in the FPAR time series by locating anomalously low values (FPAR-LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 8-km pixel. We can find verifiable evidence of numerous disturbance types across North America, including major regional patterns of cold and heat waves, forest fires, tropical storms, and large-scale forest logging. Summed over 19 years, areas potentially influenced by major ecosystem disturbances (one FPAR-LO event over the period 1982-2000) total to more than 766,000 km2. The periods of highest detection frequency were 1987-1989, 1995-1997, and 1999. Sub- continental regions of Alaska and Central Canada had the highest proportion (greater than 90%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in forests, tundra shrublands, and wetland areas. The Great Lakes region showed the highest proportion (39%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in cropland areas, whereas the western United States showed the highest proportion (16%) of FPAR-LO pixels detected in grassland areas. Based on this analysis, an historical picture is emerging of periodic droughts and heat waves, possibly coupled with herbivorous insect outbreaks, as among the most important causes of ecosystem disturbance in North America.

Potter, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January through March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Much of northern Eurasia experienced record high temperatures during the first three months of 2020, and the eastern United States experienced a significant heat wave during March. In this study, we show that the above episodes of extraordinary warmth reflect to a large extent the unusual persistence and large amplitude of three well-known modes of atmospheric variability: the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. We employ a “replay” approach in which simulations with the NASA GEOS AGCM are constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over specified regions of the globe in order to identify the underlying forcings and regions that acted to maintain these modes well beyond their typical submonthly time scales. We show that an extreme positive AO played a major role in the surface warming over Eurasia, with forcing from the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions acting to maintain its positive phase. Forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic regions produced positive NAO-like responses, contributing to the warming over eastern North America and Europe. The strong heat wave that developed over eastern North America during March was primarily associated with an extreme negative PNA that developed as an instability of the North Pacific jet, with tropical forcing providing support for a prolonged negative phase. A diagnosis of the zonally symmetric circulation shows that the above extratropical surface warming occurred underneath a deep layer of tropospheric warming, driven by stationary eddy-induced changes in the mean meridional circulation.

Northern Hemisphere↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought

A series of simulations of the late spring and early summer of 1988 were conducted in order to study the relative importance of different boundary forcings to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model's simulation of the heat wave and drought over the Great Plains of the United States during this time period. Separate 60-day simulations were generated from 10, 20, and 30 May 1988 with a variety of boundary condition datasets. For the control experiment, climatological boundary conditions were used. This was followed by experiments in which either the observed 1988 sea surface temperatures (SST) or derived 1988 soil moisture values, or both, were used in place of the climatological fields. Additional experiments were conducted in which only tropical or midlatitude SST anomalies were used. The impact of the different boundary forcings was evaluated relative to the control simulations of the precipitation and surface air temperature over the Great Plains. It was found that the tropical SST anomalies had a significant effect in reducing precipitation in this area, while the midlatitude anomalies did not. Due to the prescribed climatological soil moistures for the SST experiments, a significant increase in surface temperature did not occur in these simulations. In contrast, the simulations with the anomalous 1988 soil moistures produced both a larger reduction of precipitation and a significant increase in surface temperature over the Great Plains. The simulations with both anomalous SST and soil moisture showed only a slight augmentation of the heat wave and drought relative to the experiments with anomalous soil moisture alone.

Atlas, R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling thermal radiation waves in silica plasmas for the Mooncat NIF experiment

The Mooncat experiment on the National Ignition Facility uses a laser-driven hohlraum to create a thermal radiation wave in a titanium-doped silica plasma. The titanium dopant enables absorption spectroscopy measurements to infer the temperature of the wave as it propagates. This measurement can be used to constrain multi-physics simulation codes to better understand when simulations do not match an experiment. In this paper, we present radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of the thermal radiation wave in the first full-platform shots of the Mooncat experiment. We examine the important parameters of the simulation, focusing on the radiation temperature source, the material model of the silica plasma as it pertains to radiation transport, and lateral leakage through a beryllium tube enclosing the silica. We compare different simulation modeling strategies to an analytic model of diffusive radiation transport and find that the simulation agrees with the analytic model when it is sufficiently simplified. These simulations show how radiation energy couples to matter to develop a shock wave in a radiative heat wave, an important topic in astrophysics and nuclear fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Energy sources of the high latitude upper atmosphere

Electrodynamic (Joule) dissipation and plasma wave heating are reviewed as sources of energy for the upper atmosphere at high latitudes. Electrodynamic heating in the thermosphere is described by a generalized energy balance equation taking into account a variety of inelastic processes and energy losses, and the use of height-integrated values of the Joule heating rate to estimate the importance of electrodynamic heating at high latitudes is discussed. Observations of electrons between 95 and 115 km altitude that are up to 1000 K hotter than the neutral atmosphere is presented as evidence for atmospheric heating due to unstable plasma waves arising from the Farley-Buneman modified two-stream instability.

Banks, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Disk instability and outburst properties of the intermediate polar GK Persei

The present study reproduces the observed recurrence time scales and duration of the 1981-1989 dwarf nova-type outbursts of the intermediate polar GK Per with a model based on the time-dependent disk instability model. The model gives approximately symmetric (type B, inside-out) outbursts, as observed. This agreement suggests that the outbursts cannot result from a mass transfer instability. A modest variation of the mass transfer rate from the companion is sufficient to account for the variable outburst recurrence time scale. Contamination from the companion and the hot spot dominate the light from the disk except during a bright outburst. An intermediate temperature stagnation wave followed by a full heating wave is consistent with the observed rapid rise and double-peaked structure in the UV and optical light curves. It is argued that the hard X-ray efficiency is dime-dependent, and it is found to be much smaller in outburst than in quiescence.

Kim, Soon-Wook↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wave-turbulence dynamics in the stably stratified boundary layer

New data obtained at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory are analyzed to obtain separation of wave, turbulence, and mean field necessary for a complete treatment of wave-turbulence interaction. The data were compared with a linear stability analysis of the background atmospheric state, showing good agreement between measured wave parameters (such as wavelength, period, and vector phase velocity) and the eigenvalues of the linear solution. The analysis of the budgets of wave heat flux and temperature variance revealed the essential role of wave-turbulence interaction in maintaining a large amplitude temperature wave and countergradient heat flux. A mechanism for the maintenance of turbulence by waves in strongly stratified boundary layers is described, which emphasizes that the time-mean Richardson number is an irrelevant parameter at such times.

Einaudi, F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Passive cooling designs to improve heat resilience of homes in underserved and vulnerable communities

Disadvantaged communities face a growing threat to staying safe during heat waves, especially during coincident power outages. This study develops a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of passive cooling measures (those that operate without power) to improve residential building heat resilience. Building performance is simulated for representative homes and on district scales in two disadvantaged communities in Fresno, California. Eleven passive measures are evaluated using four heat resilience metrics with and without grid power. Results show performance of the mitigation measures varies by building characteristics, surrounding environment, and power scenario. The two most effective measures were installing solar-control window films and adding roof insulation. For pre-1978 single-family homes, these two measures can reduce unmet degree-hours (UDH) indoors by 12% and 11% respectively without grid power, or 28% and 37% with grid power. Their respective UDH reductions at district scale typically range 8% — 20% and 4% — 12% without grid power, or 14% — 44% and 8% — 51% with grid power. Top floors have higher overheating risk than lower floors during extreme heat events with coincident power outages. Natural ventilation can help, reducing UDH by 21% — 26%. The methodology and findings from this study can help cities, communities, and utilities develop effective and targeted strategies to promote greater residential heat resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulations of ion heating due to ion-acoustic instabilities in presheaths

Particle-in-cell, direct simulation Monte Carlo simulations reveal that ion-acoustic instabilities excited in presheaths can cause significant ion heating. Ion-acoustic instabilities are excited by the ion flow toward a sheath when the neutral gas pressure is small enough and the electron temperature is large enough. A series of 1D simulations were conducted in which neutral plasma (electrons and ions) was uniformly sourced with an ion temperature of 0.026 eV and different electron temperatures (0.1 eV–50 eV). Ion heating was observed when the electron-to-ion temperature ratio exceeded the minimum value predicted by linear response theory to excite ion-acoustic instabilities at the sheath edge (T e /T i ≈ 28). When this threshold was exceeded, the temperature equilibration rate between ions and electrons rapidly increased near the sheath so that the local temperature ratio did not significantly exceed the threshold for instability. This resulted in significant ion heating near the sheath edge, which also extended back into the bulk plasma; presumably due to wave reflection from the sheath. Furthermore, this ion-acoustic wave heating mechanism was found to decrease for higher neutral pressures, where ion-neutral collisions damp the ion-acoustic waves and ion heating is instead dominated by inelastic collisions in the presheath.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant heat stress: Concepts directing future research

Predicted increases in future global temperatures require us to better understand the dimensions of heat stress experienced by plants. In this review we highlight four key areas for improving our approach towards understanding plant heat stress responses. First, although the term "heat stress" is broadly used, that term encompasses heat shock, heat wave, and warming experiments, which vary in the duration and magnitude of temperature increase imposed. A greater integration of results and tools across these approaches is needed to better understand how heat stress associated with global warming will affect plants. Secondly, there is a growing need to associate plant responses to tissue temperatures. We review how plant energy budgets determine tissue temperature and discuss the implications of using leaf versus air temperature for heat stress studies. Third, we need to better understand how heat stress affects reproduction, particularly understudied stages such as floral meristem initiation and development. Fourth, we emphasize the need to integrate heat-stress recovery into breeding programs to complement recent progress in improving plant heat-stress tolerance. Taken together, we provide insights into key research gaps in plant heat stress and provide suggestions on addressing these gaps to enhance heat stress resilience in plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗