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At least 163 records · Page 9

Submerged Fatigue Testing of Marine Energy Advanced Materials

Marine energy structures are typically made of advanced composite materials and are subjected to extreme ocean environments in service. In extreme ocean environments, seawater currents and waves load structures repeatedly, which cause two environmental conditions: water intrusion and mechanical fatigue. In prior research, the two environmental conditions were applied sequentially, where composite specimens were aged and then mechanically tested. To understand the combined effects of dynamic loading and water intrusion on composite materials, the present study involves the static and fatigue four-point bend testing of composite coupons in a water tank. The water tank was designed and built to fit either a 100 kN or a 250 kN load frame. Flexural strength value, cycles to failure, and failure mode results from submerged fatigue testing will be used to inform marine energy structure designs. The coupon-scale test method will be used to scale up to and inform methods for subsequent subcomponent testing and standards development. The benefits of designing marine energy structures to informed standards are decreased lifetime costs and increased reliability and energy production, ultimately leading to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

composite materials↗

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗

MICROREACTOR APPLICATIONS, RESEARCH, VALIDATION, AND EVALUATION (MARVEL) REACTOR ? STATUS, CONSTRUCTION, AND TESTING

The paper presents the current status of the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor design, qualification testing, fabrication, and high-level construction schedule. An overview of initial criticality, low power physics testing, and start-up testing is included, as well as an overview of the envisioned processes in which end-users can engage the project for access to operational data or specific demonstrations. Designed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy’s Microreactor Program for construction and operation at the INL, MARVEL is a small, fully functional advanced reactor with UZrH fuel and thermal output of 85 kW. It offers a unique opportunity for scaled demonstrations that can dramatically accelerate the design, licensing, and deployment of commercial microreactors for power production or process heat applications. MARVEL’s objective is to build a small liquid-metal thermal reactor at the INL to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. MARVEL finished 90%-final-design in September 2023 and completed an independent project assessment in early 2024. Fabrication of long-lead components and fuel, safety analysis review, and procurement for construction are underway. MARVEL assembly and construction will start in 2025 and fuel loading is expected in mid- 2027. Initial criticality will be performed in a dry condition in late 2027, followed by loading of NaK coolant and start-up testing. Approximately six months later, release for unrestricted operations will enable subsequent testing of microreactor characteristics, microgrid integration and select heat extraction applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

2025 Intern Poster

The Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) houses the largest U.S. inert atmosphere hot cell for nuclear material research. Key features include the precision gamma scanning (PGS), Fuel Accident Condition Simulator (FACS), Neutron Radiography Reactor (NRAD), and the focus of this project, the Metallograph Loading Cell (MET Cell). The MET Cell performs tests on spent nuclear fuel, such as microhardness testing, microscopy, and neutron radiography. However, the MET Cell’s existing pressure and lighting control systems are outdated and inefficient, with inadequate documentation for system changes over time. This project aims to design a new automated control system for the MET Cell, ensuring longevity (minimum ten years), ease of troubleshooting/repair, and integration into the building monitoring system. The design process addressed challenges such as space restrictions, varied voltages within enclosures, sourcing new components, and security limitations. Compliance with NFPA 70, UL508A, MFC Physical Security, and INL Engineering standards was essential. The project involves repurposing an existing PLC to manage lighting and pressure control using digital and analog signals, simplifying wiring, and ensuring thorough documentation for future reference.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Dataset of mechanically induced thermal runaway measurement and severity level on Li-ion batteries

The deployment of Li-ion batteries covers a wide range of energy storage applications, from mobile phones, e-bikes, electric vehicles (EV) and stationary energy storage systems. However, safety issue such as thermal runaway is always one of the most important concerns to prevent Li-ion batteries from further market penetration. A standardized single-side indentation test protocol was developed to mechanically induce an internal short-circuit. The cell voltage, compressive load, indenter stroke, and temperature at the indentation point are measured in time series. The test data of each cell, along with cell parameters such as dimensions, mass, chemistry, state of charge (SOC), capacity, are integrated together to calculate a thermal runaway severity score from 0 to100. Complete data collection process including the original measured record, test method, severity score calculation scheme is presented in this article. The thermal runaway severity analysis and the more than 100 tested Li-ion battery records provide a good data source for further comparison and ranking of thermal runaway risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Phase transformation kinetics model for metals

We develop a new model for phase transformation kinetics in metals by generalizing the Levitas–Preston (LP) phase field model of martensite phase transformations (see Levitas and Preston (2002a,b) and Levitas et al. (2003)) to arbitrary pressure. Furthermore, we account for and track: the interface speed of the pressure-driven phase transformation, properties of critical nuclei, as well as nucleation at grain sites and on dislocations and homogeneous nucleation. The volume fraction evolution of each phase is described by employing KJMA (Kolmogorov, 1937; Johnson and Mehl, 1939; Avrami, 1939, 1940, 1941) kinetic theory. We then test our new model for iron under ramp loading conditions and compare our predictions for the α → ϵ iron phase transition to experimental data of Smith et al. (2013). In conclusion, more than one combination of material and model parameters (such as dislocation density and interface speed) led to good agreement of our simulations to the experimental data, thus highlighting the importance of having accurate microstructure data for the sample under consideration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tribological behavior of spark plasma sintered Ti 3 SiC 2 MAX phase composites

Ti₃SiC₂ MAX phases are considered promising candidates for tribological applications; but, their low hardness (5-6 GPa) can lead to increased abrasive wear and higher wear rates. This study investigates the effect of incorporating hard SiC particles on microstructure, mechanical, and tribological behavior of Ti₃SiC₂-SiC-based MAX phase composites prepared using spark plasma sintering at 1400 °C, 40 MPa, 15-minute holding time. Phase and microstructural characterization of composites confirmed the formation of Ti₃SiC₂ MAX phase (90%) along with TiC as a minor phase (10%). For Ti₃SiC₂-SiC, homogeneous distribution of SiC grains within Ti₃SiC₂ matrix resulted in increased hardness from ~11.6 GPa to ~14.8 GPa; however, the flexural strength decreased from ~615 MPa to ~597 MPa due to coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch. Tribological behavior of Ti₃SiC₂-SiC MAX phase composites was assessed using unidirectional sliding ball-on-flat tests with a 52100 steel ball at different loads and a constant speed of 0.05 m/s. SiC reinforced composites exhibited a decreased friction coefficient from 0.39 to 0.29 and wear rates comparable to Ti₃SiC₂ (7-10×10⁻³ mm³/N·m). SEM and EDS analysis of the worn surfaces indicated material transfer from the steel ball counter body and its oxidation due to frictional heating, at lower loads (2N and 5N), whereas at higher load (10N), fracture of the transfer layer dominated, with the presence of microcracks, delamination, grain pull-outs, and wear debris. Improved mechanical properties and good adhesion of SiC with Ti₃SiC₂ matrix resulted in reduced microcracks and grain pull-outs, making Ti₃SiC₂-SiC/Steel tribo-pair more suitable for tribological applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Production and Evaluation of Fluorophore-Doped Polymer Substrates to Screen for Plastic-Degrading Enzymes

Fast and sensitive analytical methods are the key to efficient screening of plastic-degrading enzymes. Here, we present a streamlined and affordable approach to assess the enzymatic deconstruction of insoluble synthetic polymers by blending them with a fluorescent dye, rhodamine 6G, and we evaluate this screening method using poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) as a model material. Our results indicate that enzymatic depolymerization of the rhodamine-doped PET can be observed in a high-throughput fashion by following release of the fluorophore. The fluorescence data obtained during the hydrolysis of rhodamine-doped PET by 14 PET hydrolases, produced with a robotic platform, correlated with the quantitative chromatographic analysis of PET degradation products. Remarkably, the use of the rhodamine-loaded PET substrate resulted in negligibly low background signals even when detecting PETase activity in crude cell lysates, suggesting suitability for screening of a wide variety of samples. Encouraged by these results, we next produced a selection of polyethylene- and nylon-based materials loaded with rhodamine 6G. While rapid leaching of fluorophore observed with nylon substrates limits the utility of the method for detecting nylonase activity, the rhodamine-loaded polyethylene showed promising performance in passive diffusion tests, indicating that this latter substrate may be used to screen for polyolefin-degrading enzymes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

FY2016 ILAW glass SPFT testing for disposal at IDF

In the present work a full suite of SPFT tests was performed on a single high waste loading LAW glass (IDF7-E12) in order to determine kinetic law parameters for that glass.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cryogenic Gear System for ADMX Tuning Cavity

The Axion Dark Matter Experiment (ADMX) searches for axions by converting them into detectable photons using resonant microwave cavities at cryogenic temperatures. A precise tuning system is needed to adjust cavity frequency without adding thermal load or electromagnetic interference. This project developed and tested a 1000 to 1 gear reduction system made from PEEK, a low thermal conductivity plastic with good dimensional stability and self lubrication at low temperatures. A compound gear train design of five 3 to 1 stages and one 4 to 1 stage achieves high reduction within a 40 mm diameter compact housing. Prototypes were 3D printed and later CNC machined in PEEK using Fusion 360 and Bantam Tools to confirm manufacturability. Prototype testing showed smooth gear engagement and no slipping. The final gearbox improves cavity tuning precision for axion searches while protecting cryogenic conditions.

Ortega, Giancarlo [Marquette U.]↗

Reformulating a Gurson-based dynamic damage model and demonstrating improved predictive power and numerical robustness

The original Tepla (TEnsile PLAsticity) ductile damage model, based on the Gurson yield surface, has long been used to model damage evolution and material failure under dynamic loading. Unfortunately, Tepla suffered from mesh sensitivity, numerical instability, and limited predictive capability. Here, we theoretically reformulate Tepla to address these issues. We especially focus on the prediction of porosity, which is the key state variable used for modeling ductile damage, as compared to more easily measured surface velocities, which are at best an indirect measure of damage. Key model changes include separating the viscosity during volumetric void growth from underlying shear strength behavior and switching to an iterative bisection solver. The new Tepla is then calibrated on incipient spall experiments on half-hard copper and tantalum, which demonstrate its ability to simultaneously fit the model to recovered porosity distributions and measured surface velocities, a stringent test. Improved numerical behavior, such as greatly reduced mesh sensitivity, is also shown in those simulations. Finally, the new Tepla model is applied to several high-explosive loaded, sweeping wave experiments, showing the ability of the model to predict behavior on tests with significantly different loading conditions and histories than the calibration data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantifying Sources of Voltage Decay in Long-Term Durability Testing for PEM Water Electrolysis

Meeting a competitive 1$/kg hydrogen cost target for polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) will require advances to significantly reduce capital costs and precious metal catalyst usage, while simultaneously enabling 40,000–80,000 h stack lifetimes under dynamic use conditions. Minimizing cell voltage decay rates is therefore a key goal for PEMWE, although the fundamental processes governing voltage decay are not yet well understood. Here we present a quantitative approach to analyze the contributions to voltage decay in long-term PEMWE testing using polarization curves, impedance spectroscopy, and post-mortem electron microscopy. We apply this approach to analyze a 28 μV h −1 decay rate observed in a 4000 h durability test of a cell using 0.5 mg cm −2 total PGM catalyst loading (0.4 mg Ir cm −2 anode, 0.1 mg Pt cm −2 cathode) and 3 A cm −2 current density. We also analyze a comparative series of 1000 h tests under different conditions. These results provide valuable insights into anode catalyst degradation processes, as well as transferrable methodology for PEMWE durability research.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Geometry Optimization of Cable-Based Actuation for Small-Scale Model Testing of a Floating Marine Turbine: Preprint

This research aims to apply combined wave and tidal current loads to a small-scale floating marine current turbine in a wave tank, where an actuation system applies hydrodynamic and mooring forces on the hardware based on results from a simulation. We use a real-time hybrid test setup with physical wave forcing from the wave tank and simulated current and mooring forces implemented through a tensioned cable array. For this paper, we developed an optimization algorithm that adjusts the hardware geometry of the cable array to achieve more efficient tension allocation across the cables for the loads that need to be actuated. By adjusting the points where the cables are attached to the floating platform and the angles between the platform and the winches, an optimal cable geometry can be found to minimize tension variations in the lines, maintain the desired pretension, and prevent excessive tensions. We present the optimization problem formulation, the actuation system evaluation approach, and optimization results that show effective cable actuation setups that are being considered for implementation in the wave tank tests.

cable-based actuation↗

Coupled Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic Hybrid Simulation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Application of pH-dependent environmental protection agency test method 1313 to low-activity nuclear waste glass

Here, in this study, we present results of a room temperature, pH-dependent leach test established by United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) (EPA Method 1313 and further abbreviated EPA 1313) to study the alteration behavior of low-activity nuclear waste (LAW) glasses. Implementation of EPA 1313, which is closer to LAW disposal temperatures, could allow for more flexibility in the formulation of Hanford LAW glasses, specifically in terms of increased waste loading. A set of 48 LAW glasses were selected to test with EPA 1313. Briefly, the test method consists of adding glass to a number of solutions at different initial pH values and at a fixed mass-to-solution-volume ratio. The glass is then allowed to corrode for two days and the final solution pH and concentration of different glass elements in solution is measured. The test was modified from the published procedure to constrain particle size to provide more reproducible results, reduce the studied pH range to a more applicable range, and to reduce solution volume to reduce costs associated with material preparation. Compositional modeling was used to predict the measured elemental releases at various pH. The model predictions improved in tests where there was a relatively small difference between initial and final solution pH indicating that pH controls would result in better predictive models.

Accelerated aging↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗