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DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Definition and Preliminary Design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Phase 1. Volume 1: Executive Summary

The laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) is a facility instrument of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and is the culmination of over 20 years of effort in the field of laser Doppler wind sensing. LAWS will by the first instrument to fly in space with the capability of providing global-scale tropospheric wind profiles at high spatial resolutions. Global-scale wind profiles are necessary for: (1) more accurate diagnostics of large-scale circulation and climate dynamics; (2) improved numerical weather prediction; (3) improved understanding of mesoscale systems; (4) improved understanding of global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles. The objective of phase 1 of the LAWS study was to evaluate competing concepts and develop a baseline configuration for the LAWS instrument. The first phase of the study consisted of identifying realistic concepts for LAWS and analyzing them in sufficient detail to be able to choose the most promising one for the LAWS application. System configurations were then developed for the chosen concept. The concept and subsequent configuration were to be compatible with two prospective platforms: the Japanese polar orbiting platform (JPOP) and the Space Station Freedom (as an attached payload). After an objective and comprehensive concept selection process, a heterodyne detection Doppler lidar using a CO2 laser transmitter operating at 9.1 microns over a 2.1 micron system with a solid state laser was chosen. The CO2 lidar concept was then analyzed in detail to arrive at a configuration for the instrument and its major subsystems. A configuration for LAWS was arrived at which meets the performance requirements, and this design is presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Definition and preliminary design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 2

The steps and engineering trades and analyses used in establishing the initial requirements and in developing a concept and configuration for the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) instrument. A summary of the performance anticipated from the baseline configuration, and a bibliography are presented. LAWS, which is a facility instrument of the Earth observing system (EOS), is the culmination of over 20 years of effort in the field of laser Doppler wind sensing and will be the first instrument to fly in space capable of providing global-scale tropospheric wind profiles at high spatial resolutions. Global-scale wind profiles are necessary for: (1) more accurate diagnosis of large-scale circulation and climate dynamics; (2) improved numerical weather prediction; (3) improved understanding of mesoscale systems; and (4) improved understanding of global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles. The objective of phase 1 was to define and perform a preliminary design for the LAWS instrument. The definition phase consisted of identifying realistic concepts for LAWS and analyzing them in sufficient detail to be able to choose the most promising one for the LAWS instrument. Systems and subsystems configurations were then developed for the chosen concept. The concept and subsequent configuration were to be compatible with two prospective platforms: the Japanese polar orbiting platform (JPOP) and as an attached payload on the Space Station Freedom. After a thorough and objective concept selection process, a heterodyne detection Doppler lidar using a CO2 laser transmitter operating a 9.1 micron over a 2.1 micron solid state system was chosen. A configuration for LAWS that meets the performance requirements was designed at the conclusion of phase 1.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Gravity Waves and Turbulence as Observed in ASHOE/MAESA

Previous investigators have demonstrated that midlatitude convection is capable of generating gravity waves that propagate into the stratosphere. Gravity waves contribute significantly to the overall mass circulation of the stratosphere, which is driven by the breaking of planetary and mesoscale waves generated in the troposphere. In the southern hemisphere stratosphere, where planetary wave amplitudes are substantially smaller than in the northern hemisphere, gravity wave breaking may play a more important role. At the same time, the major mechanism for exciting gravity waves, namely flow over rough terrain, is much less widespread in the ocean-covered southern hemisphere. This presentation examines gravity waves as observed in the first three deployments of the ASHOE/MAESA campaign. Among the issues to be examined are: 1: The incidence of turbulence during the flights as compared to the arctic campaigns. 2: The relationship of turbulence to vertical tracer gradients. 3: The relationship of observed gravity waves to underlying satellite imagery.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS2003

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Progress in Polar Oceans Research Using ERS-1 Data

Data from ERS-1, especially from the AMI Image Mode, or SAR, have been particularly useful in providing data on ice type and motion and oceanic mesoscale features. These data have been used in studies of ocean and ice circulation, climate processes, convection, and have also proved useful in support of operations in ice covered seas.

polar oceans ice motion↗

NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of the tropospheric water distribution during FIRE 2

The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model, as adapted for use at ARC, was used as a testbed for the development and validation of cloud models for use in General Circulation Models (GCM's). This modeling approach also allows us to intercompare the predictions of the various cloud schemes within the same dynamical framework. The use of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model also allows us to compare our results with FIRE-II (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment) observations, instead of climate statistics. Though a promising approach, our work to date revealed several difficulties. First, the model by design is limited in spatial coverage and is only run for 12 to 48 hours at a time. Hence the quality of the simulation will depend heavily on the initial conditions. The poor quality of upper-tropospheric measurements of water vapor is well known and the situation is particularly bad for mid-latitude winter since the coupling with the surface is less direct than in summer so that relying on the model to spin-up a reasonable moisture field is not always successful. Though one of the most common atmospheric constituents, water vapor is relatively difficult to measure accurately, especially operationally over large areas. The standard NWS sondes have little sensitivity at the low temperatures where cirrus form and the data from the GOES 6.7 micron channel is difficult to quantify. For this reason, the goals of FIRE Cirrus II included characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of water vapor and clouds. In studying the data from FIRE Cirrus II, it was found that no single special observation technique provides accurate regional distributions of water vapor. The Raman lidar provides accurate measurements, but only at the Hub, for levels up to 10 km, and during nighttime hours. The CLASS sondes are more sensitive to moisture at low temperatures than are the NWS sondes, but the four stations only cover an area of two hundred kilometers on a side. The aircraft give the most accurate measurements of water vapor, but are limited in spatial and temporal coverage. This problem is partly alleviated by the use of the MAPS analyses, a four-dimensional data assimilation system that combines the previous 3-hour forecast with the available observations, but its upper-level moisture analyses are sometimes deficient because of the vapor measurement problem. An attempt was made to create a consistent four-dimensional description of the water vapor distribution during the second IFO by subjectively combining data from a variety of sources, including MAPS analyses, CLASS sondes, SPECTRE sondes, NWS sondes, GOES satellite analyses, radars, lidars, and microwave radiometers.

Westphal, Douglas L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Regional Climate Simulation and Data Assimilation with Variable-Resolution GCMs

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolution over one or multiple areas of interest represents a viable new approach to regional climateklimate change and data assimilation studies and applications. The multiple areas of interest, at least one within each global quadrant, include the major global mountains and major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. They also can include the polar domains, and the European and African regions. The SG-approach provides an efficient regional downscaling to mesoscales, and it is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of globaYlarge- and regionallmeso- scales while preserving the high quality of global circulation. Basically, the SG-GCM simulations are no different from those of the traditional uniform-grid GCM simulations besides using a variable-resolution grid. Several existing SG-GCMs developed by major centers and groups are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An integrated research program for TOPEX/Poseidon with emphasis on the Pacific Ocean

There are four distinct but related tasks in this investigation. First, we want to combine estimates of the surface dynamic topography derived independently from altimetry and from hydrography in an optimal way (weighted least squares with a priori estimates) to produce an optimal estimate (with error bounds) of the large-scale circulation. Second, we want to study the large-scale (as opposed to the mesoscale) variability using crossover differences as well as exact repeat tracks. The third task involves the study of mesoscale variability in the Kuroshio Extension, the California Current, and eventually the Pacific Ocean and the whole globe, wherein surface transport estimates are provided for both the Kuroshio Extension and the Gulf Stream. The final task is a study of how altimeter data and other data can be assimilated into numerical models.

Tai, Chang-Kou↗

NASA NTRS1993

Prelaunch performance of the NASA altimeter for the TOPEX/POSEIDON project

Validation of in-orbit performance has demonstrated the ability of satellite radar altimetry to measure mesoscale absolute dynamic sea surface topography and to measure the variation in the general circulation on the largest spatial scales. Measurements of basin scale mean circulation, however, have been corrupted by system inaccuracies. The TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeter satellite applies recent advances in remote sensing instrumentation to reduce long wavelength measurement errors to dramatically lower levels. The TOPEX altimeter measures the range to the ocean surface with 2-cm precision and accuracy through the use of both Ku- and C-band radars, a high pulse repetition frequency, an agile tracker, and absolute internal height calibration. Dual pulse bandwidths for both frequencies make it possible to quickly acquire the surface and begin tracking after crossing the land/ocean boundary. This paper presents the altimeter requirements and the elements of the altimeter design that have resulted in meeting these requirements. Prelaunch test data, based on the use of a Radar Altimeter System Evaluator to simulate the backscatter from the ocean surface, are presented to demonstrate that the TOPEX altimeter will meet these requirements and provide the data necessary to the understanding of basin scale mean circulation.

Marth, Paul C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Sea breeze-induced mesoscale systems and severe weather

The relationship between thunderstorm activity during the summer months along coastal regions of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the dry sea breeze circulation was investigated. Satellite composites of thunderstorm activity for synoptically undisturbed conditions have been obtained for south Florida for a series of days in the summer of 1983. These data were catalogued into different low level synoptic flow regimes. Five synoptic flow regimes were found from the data. A three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model was used for each sysnoptic flow regime to quantitatively predict the location of enhanced thunderstorm activity. This model includes a parameterization of vegetation and soil moisture feedbacks as well as a sophisticated planetary boundary layer representation. Using the results of the satellite image composites, spatial and temporal characteristics of deep convective cloud patterns and their variation with synoptic flow are described. The results from the numerical model have provided explanations for the observed patterns.

Pielke, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

NASA NTRS1982

The structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems influencing severe thunderstorm development during AVE/SESAME 1

Relationships between meso-beta scale systems and thunderstorm formation were examined as part of the NASA atmospheric variability experiment/severe environmental storms and mesoscale experiment 1979. The McIdas program was employed for meso-beta scale analyses of atmospheric structure and dynamics in kinematic computations of the Abilene Triangle on a grid mesh of 100 km for station spacing of 275 km. Mesoscale short wave systems were detected imbedded and propagating cyclonically around upper-level vortex circulation and creating environmental conditions conducive to thunderstorm development. TIROS-N and GOES satellite data served to connect the systems with two convective storms which developed. The necessity to use spaceborne instrumentation carried on the Shuttle or on free-flying satellites for enhancing the data-base on storm development is noted.

Wilson, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Convectively Generated Gravity Waves In The Tropical Stratosphere: Case Studies And Importance For The Circulation Of The Middle Atmosphere

The advent of high altitude aircraft measurements in the stratosphere over tropical convective systems has made it possible to observe the mesoscale disturbances in the temperature field that these systems excite. Such measurements show that these disturbances have horizontal scales comparable to those of the underlying anvils (about 50-100 km) with peak to peak theta surface variations of about 300-400 meters. Moreover, correlative wind measurements from the tropical phase of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) clearly show that these disturbances are gravity waves. We present two case studies of anvil-scale gravity waves over convective systems. Using steady and time-dependent linear models of gravity wave propagation in the stratosphere, we show: (1) that the underlying convective systems are indeed the source of the observed phenomena; and (2) that their generating mechanism can be crudely represented as flow over a time-dependent mountain. We will then discuss the effects gravity waves of the observed amplitudes have on the circulation of the middle atmosphere, particularly the quasi-biennial, and semiannual oscillations.

Pfister, Leonhard↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Numerical simulation of thermally induced near-surface flows over Martian terrain

Numerical simulations of the Martian near-surface wind regime using a mesoscale atmospheric model have shown that the thermally induced near-surface winds are analogous to terrestrial circulations. In particular, katabatic wind displays a striking similarity to flow observed over Antarctica. Introduction of solar radiation strongly perturbs the slope flows; anabatic conditions develop in middle to high latitudes during the daytime hours due to the solar heating of the sloping terrain. There appears to be a rapid transition from the katabatic to the anabatic flow regimes, emphasizing the primary importance of radiative exchanges at the surface in specifying the horizontal pressure gradient force.

Parish, T. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

NASA NTRS2012

Propagation of Convective Complexes Observed by TRMM in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Precipitation maxima during the West African summer monsoon propagate generally westward in tandem with African easterly waves. A heretofore unreported, repeating pattern of northward drift of precipitation maxima is detected on Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite) time-latitude distributions of daily accumulations over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Corresponding 3-hourly TRMM accumulations show that the northward drifting envelopes of precipitation during August 2006 are often comprised of individual swaths propagating towards the southwest, presumably as mesoscale squall lines. The implied northward drift on the time-latitude distribution is a component of a resultant northwestward movement. The study examines the entire available record of TRMM precipitation observations, 1998-2010, to summarize TRMM maxima propagation over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Meridional displacements of precipitation maxima are most prevalent in June-September 2006, occurring less frequently during other summers. An investigation of geopotential and circulation fields, limited to two case studies, suggests mechanisms to explain some of the observed propagation of TRMM maxima. In one event, northward drift of the precipitation envelope is consistent with the corresponding displacement of the intertropical convergence zone trough, although the southwest propagation of individual mesoscale convection maxima does not correspond to any synoptic feature on reanalysis circulation or reanalysis downscaled by a regional model. One speculation is that southwestward propagation of precipitation maxima could be caused by regeneration of convection at outflow boundaries of mature thunderstorms.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗