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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2016

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

Mission Assurance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Additively Manufactured Wind Tunnel Balances for Propulsive Force Measurement

Propulsive forces and moments during powered descent are not understood well enough to design an entry, decent, and landing vehicle with high confidence using solely computational fluid dynamics modelling (CFD). Therefore, wind tunnel testing is required to quantify uncertainties in computational modeling and simulation. Wind tunnel balances are structural, high-precision, multi-axis force transducers that provide direct measurement of these aerodynamic forces and moments, however their complex designs make them costly and time consuming to produce and approaches used to manufacture them have not changed significantly since the 1960s. This work demonstrates that additive manufacturing (AM) can be used to manufacture wind tunnel balances with significantly reduced fabrication time and expense. Moreover, the design flexibility afforded by the additive manufacturing process has the potential to enable new capabilities with respect to measuring propulsion forces during entry, decent, and landing testing. Here we present two novel balance designs enabled by AM. One will provide direct measurement of aerodynamic interference forces and moments on powered descent models (retropropulsion forces) to support CFD validation and further development of Mars human landing vehicle concepts. The second design will be used to characterize a reaction control system during entry descent and landing testing over a wide Mach number range.

Wind tunnel balance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Additively Manufactured Balances for Propulsive Force Measurement

Propulsive forces and moments during powered descent are not understood well enough to design an entry, decent, and landing vehicle with high confidence using solely computational fluid dynamics modelling (CFD). Therefore, wind tunnel testing is required to quantify uncertainties in computational modeling and simulation. Wind tunnel balances are structural, high-precision, multi-axis force transducers that provide direct measurement of these aerodynamic forces and moments, however their complex designs make them costly and time consuming to produce and approaches used to manufacture them have not changed significantly since the 1960s. This work demonstrates that additive manufacturing (AM) can be used to manufacture wind tunnel balances with significantly reduced fabrication time and expense. Moreover, the design flexibility afforded by the additive manufacturing process has the potential to enable new capabilities with respect to measuring propulsion forces during entry, decent, and landing testing. Here we present two novel balance designs enabled by AM. One will provide direct measurement of aerodynamic interference forces and moments on powered descent models (retropropulsion forces) to support CFD validation and further development of Mars human landing vehicle concepts. The second design will be used to characterize a reaction control system during entry decent and landing testing over a wide Mach number range.

Wind tunnel balance↗

NASA NTRS2022

Remote sensing-based vegetation and soil moisture constraints reduce irrigation estimation uncertainty

Understanding the human water footprint and its impact on the hydrological cycle is essential to inform water management under climate change. Despite efforts in estimating irrigation water withdrawals in earth system models, uncertainties and discrepancies exist within and across modeling systems conditioned by model structure, irrigation parameterization, and the choice of input datasets. Achieving model reliability could be much more challenging for data-sparse regions, given limited access to ground truth for parameterization and validation. Here, we demonstrate the potential of utilizing remotely sensed vegetation and soil moisture observations in constraining irrigation estimation in the Noah-MP land surface model. Results indicate that the two constraints together can effectively reduce model sensitivity to the choice of irrigation parameterization by 7%–43%. It also improves the characterization of the spatial patterns of irrigation and its impact on evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture by correcting for vegetation conditions and irrigation timing. This study highlights the importance of utilizing remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation measurements in detecting irrigation signals and correcting for vegetation growth. Integrating the two remote sensing datasets into the model provides an effective and less feature engineered approach to constraining the uncertainty of irrigation modeling. Such strategies can be potentially transferred to other modeling systems and applied to regions across the globe.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2001

Developing Uncertainty Models for Robust Flutter Analysis Using Ground Vibration Test Data

A ground vibration test can be used to obtain information about structural dynamics that is important for flutter analysis. Traditionally, this information#such as natural frequencies of modes#is used to update analytical models used to predict flutter speeds. The ground vibration test can also be used to obtain uncertainty models, such as natural frequencies and their associated variations, that can update analytical models for the purpose of predicting robust flutter speeds. Analyzing test data using the -norm, rather than the traditional 2-norm, is shown to lead to a minimum-size uncertainty description and, consequently, a least-conservative robust flutter speed. This approach is demonstrated using ground vibration test data for the Aerostructures Test Wing. Different norms are used to formulate uncertainty models and their associated robust flutter speeds to evaluate which norm is least conservative.

Potter, Starr↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dust extinction and molecular gas in the dark cloud IC 5146

In this paper we describe a powerful method for mapping the distribution of dust through a molecular cloud using data obtained in large-scale, multiwavelength, infrared imaging surveys. This method combines direct measurements of near-infrared color excess and certain techniques of star counting to derive mean extinctions and map the dust column density distribution through a cloud at higher angular resolutions and greater optical depths than those achieved previously by optical star counting. We report the initial results of the application of this method to a dark cloud complex near the cluster IC 5146, where we have performed coordinated, near-infrared, JHK imaging and (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS millimeter-wave, molecular-line surveys of a large portion of the complex. More than 4000 stars were detected in our JHK survey of the cloud. Of these, all but about a dozen appear to be field stars not associated with the cloud. Star count maps at J band show a striking and detailed anticorrelation between the surface density of J-band sources and CO and CS molecular-line emission. We used the (H-K) colors and positions of nearly 1300 sources to directly measure and map the extinction and thus trace the dust column density through the cloud at an effective angular resolution of 1 min .5. We report an interesting correlation between the measured dispersion in our extinction determinations and the extinction. Modeling this relation indicates that effects of small-scale cloud structure dominate the uncertainties in our measurements. Moreover, we demonstrate that such observations can be used to place constraints on the nature of the spatial distribution of extinction on scales smaller than our resolution. In particular, we show that models in which the dust is distributed uniformly or in discrete high-extinction clumps on scales smaller than (1 min .5) are inconsistent with the observations. We have derived extinctions at the same positions and at the same angular resolution (1 min .7) as our molecular-line observations. This enabled a direct comparison of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS integrated intensities and column densities with A(sub V) for more than 500 positions in the cloud, corresponding to a range in A(sub V) between 0 to 32 mag of extinction. We found the integrated intensities of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS to be roughly linearly correlated with extinction over different ranges of extinction. However, for all three molecules we find the scatter in the observed relations to be larger than can be accounted for by instrumental error, suggesting that there are large intrinsic variations in the abundances or excitation of the molecules through the cloud. Mean abundances for all the molecules relative to hydrogen were directly derived from the data. The ratio of (13)CO to C(18)O abundances was found to be significantly higher than the terrestrial ratio in regions where extinction is less than 10 mag. In the same region, the dispersion in the abundance ratio is also found to be very large, suggesting that the abundances of one or both molecules are very unstable even at relatively large cloud optical depths. Beyond 10 mag of extinction the abundances of both species appear very stable with their ratio close to the terrestrial value.

Lada, Charles J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Chemical vapor deposition modeling for high temperature materials

The formalism for the accurate modeling of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes has matured based on the well established principles of transport phenomena and chemical kinetics in the gas phase and on surfaces. The utility and limitations of such models are discussed in practical applications for high temperature structural materials. Attention is drawn to the complexities and uncertainties in chemical kinetics. Traditional approaches based on only equilibrium thermochemistry and/or transport phenomena are defended as useful tools, within their validity, for engineering purposes. The role of modeling is discussed within the context of establishing the link between CVD process parameters and material microstructures/properties. It is argued that CVD modeling is an essential part of designing CVD equipment and controlling/optimizing CVD processes for the production and/or coating of high performance structural materials.

Goekoglu, Sueleyman↗

NASA NTRS1992

Chemical vapor deposition modeling for high temperature materials

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improving Accuracy of Structural Dynamic Modification with Augmented Residual Vectors

It is often important to perform sensitivity analysis to determine how a structural model will be impacted by design changes. Often, the structural analysts will manually make changes to the finite element model (FEM) to determine the effects. But when dealing with a large FEM with millions of degrees of freedom these manual changes can be cumbersome and calculation of the effects can computationally expensive. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the effects of model changes through approximation methods. One common technique is to determine the analytical sensitivity of the FEM model with respect to the given change. These analytical sensitivities are valid when small changes are made to the structural model, but invalid if large changes need to be assessed. Another approach is to use Structural Dynamic Modification (SDM) to create a surrogate model to analyze model changes. SDM is a widely-used sensitivity method and is used in applications of model updating, uncertainty quantification, and model design studies. SMD is valid for moderate (10-20 percent) changes in the structural model, but model approximations are often needed for large parameter changes (greater than 20 percent). Structural Dynamic Modification can be improved by using residual vectors to augment the surrogate model formulation from SDM. Adding the residual modes increases the fidelity of the surrogate model while keeping the computational cost low. This paper discusses the application and limitations of the augmented residual modes method to two structures: the Integrated Spacecraft and Payload Element (ISPE) of the Space Launch System (SLS) and the full SLS as it is configured during its Integrated Modal Test (IMT).

Stewart, Eric C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Experiment and simulation for CSI: What are the missing links?

Viewgraphs on experiment and simulation for control structure interaction (CSI) are presented. Topics covered include: control structure interaction; typical control/structure interaction system; CSI problem classification; actuator/sensor models; modeling uncertainty; noise models; real-time computations; and discrete versus continuous.

Belvin, W. Keith↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty of Passive Imager Cloud Optical Property Retrievals to Instrument Radiometry and Model Assumptions: Examples from MODIS

The optical and microphysical structure of clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global-daily 1 km retrievals of cloud optical thickness (COT) and effective particle radius (CER) are provided, as well as the derived water path (WP). The cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate retrieval datasets for various two-channel retrievals, typically a VISNIR channel paired with a 1.6, 2.1, and 3.7 m spectral channel. The MOD06 forward model is derived from on a homogeneous plane-parallel cloud. In Collection 5 processing (completed in 2007 with a modified Collection 5.1 completed in 2010), pixel-level retrieval uncertainties were calculated for the following non-3-D error sources: radiometry, surface spectral albedo, and atmospheric corrections associated with model analysis uncertainties (water vapor only). The latter error source includes error correlation across the retrieval spectral channels. Estimates of uncertainty in 1 aggregated (Level-3) means were also provided assuming unity correlation between error sources for all pixels in a grid for a single day, and zero correlation of error sources from one day to the next. I n Collection 6 (expected to begin in late summer 2013) we expanded the uncertainty analysis to include: (a) scene-dependent calibration uncertainty that depends on new band and detector-specific Level 1B uncertainties, (b) new model error sources derived from the look-up tables which includes sensitivities associated with wind direction over the ocean and uncertainties in liquid water and ice effective variance, (c) thermal emission uncertainties in the 3.7 m band associated with cloud and surface temperatures that are needed to extract reflected solar radiation from the total radiance signal, (d) uncertainty in the solar spectral irradiance at 3.7 m, and (e) addition of stratospheric ozone uncertainty in visible atmospheric corrections. A summary of the approach and example Collection 6 results will be shown.

Cloud Properties Observations↗

NASA NTRS1972

Structural evaluation of Marman V-band coupling and flange with conoseal gasket

Results are described of a development test program directed at evaluating the structural capabilities of the Marman V-band coupling and flange with conoseal gasket. The intended end use was for the 75K NERVA flight engine propellant lines. Of major importance in the structural evaluation was the ability to predict stresses throughout the assembly for a variety of loading conditions. Computer finite element analysis was used to predict these stresses but, for the subject configuration, large uncertainties were introduced in modeling the complex geometry and boundary conditions. The purpose of the structural tests was to obtain actual stresses and deflections for correlation with, and updating of the finite element model. Results of the incomplete test program are inconclusive with respect to determining suitability for use on the NERVA engine.

Oates, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Knight, Norman F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Eigenvalue perturbation models for flexible structures

It is pointed out that real parametric modal frequency and damping variation for lightly damped systems does not resemble disks on the complex plane. Using complex uncertainty (and therefore disklike) models can introduce conservativeness in the design method. An alternative means of developing suitable complex uncertainty models is presented. It involves treating the uncertainty as perturbations to the system eigenvalues and using a particular linear fractional transformation to cover this uncertainty. This approach is applicable to modes within the bandwidth of control. It can be used in conjunction with the standard perturbation modeling approaches. A simple SISO (single-input single-output) example, motivated by a flexible truss experiment at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is discussed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Smith, Roy S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Alma Images the Eccentric HD 53143 Debris Disk

We present ALMA 1.3 mm observations of the HD 53143 debris disk—the first infrared or millimeter image produced of this ∼1 Gyr old solar analog. Previous HST STIS coronagraphic imaging did not detect flux along the minor axis of the disk, which could suggest a face-on geometry with two clumps of dust. These ALMA observations reveal a disk with a strikingly different structure. In order to fit models to the millimeter visibilities and constrain the uncertainties on the disk parameters, we adopt a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. This is the most eccentric debris disk observed to date with a forced eccentricity of 0.21 ± 0.02, nearly twice that of the Fomalhaut debris disk, and also displays an apocenter glow. Although this eccentric model fits the outer debris disk well, significant interior residuals remain, which may suggest a possible edge-on inner disk, which remains unresolved in these observations. Combined with the observed structure difference between HST and ALMA, these results suggest a potential previous scattering event or dynamical instability in this system. We also note that the stellar flux changes considerably over the course of our observations, suggesting flaring at millimeter wavelengths. Using simultaneous TESS observations, we determine the stellar rotation period to be 9.6 ± 0.1 days.

Radio astronomy↗

NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic simulation of the human factor in structural reliability

Many structural failures have occasionally been attributed to human factors in engineering design, analyses maintenance, and fabrication processes. Every facet of the engineering process is heavily governed by human factors and the degree of uncertainty associated with them. Factors such as societal, physical, professional, psychological, and many others introduce uncertainties that significantly influence the reliability of human performance. Quantifying human factors and associated uncertainties in structural reliability require: (1) identification of the fundamental factors that influence human performance, and (2) models to describe the interaction of these factors. An approach is being developed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the human performance. This approach consists of a multi factor model in conjunction with direct Monte-Carlo simulation.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗