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At least 163 records · Page 9

Spectra of noise and amplified turbulence emanating from shock-turbulence interaction: Two scenarios

This work is a small extension of NACA studies of the early fifties that predicted amplification of turbulence on passing through a shock wave (observed for turbulent boundary layers), as well as the generation of intense noise (observed for supersonic jets). The first solved the basic gasdynamics problem of the interaction of an infinite planar shock with a single three-dimensional spectrum component of turbulence (an oblique sinusoidal shear wave). The second developed the comprehensive 3D spectrum analysis necessary to generalize the scenario to the interaction of a shock wave with convected homogeneous turbulence. Numerical calculations were carried out to yield curves (vs. Mach number) of rms sound pressure, temperature fluctuation, and two components of turbulent velocity downstream of the shock, for two cases of preshock turbulence. The present numerical study reproduces these for one case and provides in addition their one-dimensional power spectra (vs. wavenumber or frequency). Ratios of the several postshock spectra to the longitudinal preshock turbulence spectrum (1D) have been computed for a wide range of Mach numbers; curves vs. wavenumber are presented for two scenarios of preshock turbulence: isotropy and axisymmetry, both based on the von Karman 3D spectrum.

Ribner, H. S.↗

Full Duplex, Spread Spectrum Radio System

The goal of this project was to support the development of a full duplex, spread spectrum voice communications system. The assembly and testing of a prototype system consisting of a Harris PRISM spread spectrum radio, a TMS320C54x signal processing development board and a Zilog Z80180 microprocessor was underway at the start of this project. The efforts under this project were the development of multiple access schemes, analysis of full duplex voice feedback delays, and the development and analysis of forward error correction (FEC) algorithms. The multiple access analysis involved the selection between code division multiple access (CDMA), frequency division multiple access (FDMA) and time division multiple access (TDMA). Full duplex voice feedback analysis involved the analysis of packet size and delays associated with full loop voice feedback for confirmation of radio system performance. FEC analysis included studies of the performance under the expected burst error scenario with the relatively short packet lengths, and analysis of implementation in the TMS320C54x digital signal processor. When the capabilities and the limitations of the components used were considered, the multiple access scheme chosen was a combination TDMA/FDMA scheme that will provide up to eight users on each of three separate frequencies. Packets to and from each user will consist of 16 samples at a rate of 8,000 samples per second for a total of 2 ms of voice information. The resulting voice feedback delay will therefore be 4 - 6 ms. The most practical FEC algorithm for implementation was a convolutional code with a Viterbi decoder. Interleaving of the bits of each packet will be required to offset the effects of burst errors.

Harvey, Bruce A.↗

SimSup's Loop: A Control Theory Approach to Spacecraft Operator Training

Immersive simulation is a staple of training for many complex system operators, including astronauts and ground operators of spacecraft. However, while much has been written about simulators, simulation facilities, and operator certification programs, the topic of how one develops simulation scenarios to train a spacecraft operator is relatively understated in the literature. In this paper, an approach is presented for using control theory as the basis for developing the immersive simulation scenarios for a spacecraft operator training program. The operator is effectively modeled as a high level controller of lower level hardware and software control loops that affect a select set of system state variables. Simulation scenarios are derived from a STAMP-based hazard analysis of the operator's high and low level control loops. The immersive simulation aspect of the overall training program is characterized by selecting a set of scenarios that expose the operator to the various inadequate control actions that stem from control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop. Results from the application of this approach to the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) mission are provided through an analysis of the simulation scenarios used for operator training and the actual anomalies that occurred during the mission. The simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are mapped to specific control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop to illustrate the characteristics of anomalies arising from the different sections of the typical control loop (and why it is important for operators to have exposure to these characteristics). Additionally, similarities between the simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are highlighted to make the case that the simulation scenarios prepared the operators for the mission.

LADEE↗

Spatial frequency response of an optical heterodyne receiver

The analysis of a passive heterodyne receiver with respect to its imaging performance (transfer function) and its heterodyne efficiency shows departures from the results which are obtained in strictly coherent or incoherent imaging systems. The cascading property of modulation transfer function analysis must be carefully applied, since the coherent transfer function of the optical receiver and that due to the local oscillator-detector combination are not separable but are related by the convolution of their products. Application of these results to a spacelab-type optical heterodyne receiver shows that resolutions of the order of 1.5 to 2.0 km are possible for worst-case type orbital scenarios. In addition to an analysis of the derogatory effects of sampling (aliasing) a comparison of obscured-type receivers (e.g., Cassegrains) with unobscured receivers shows that both resolution and efficiency are severly degraded in an obscured-type receiver and, consequently, should not be used for passive heterodyne detection schemes.

Robinson, D. M.↗

Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions

Strategic Assessment of Risk and Technology (START) is a user-friendly computer program that assists human managers in making decisions regarding research-and-development investment portfolios in the presence of uncertainties and of non-technological constraints that include budgetary and time limits, restrictions related to infrastructure, and programmatic and institutional priorities. START facilitates quantitative analysis of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs, and thereby enables the selection and scheduling of value-optimal development efforts. START incorporates features that, variously, perform or support a unique combination of functions, most of which are not systematically performed or supported by prior decision- support software. These functions include the following: Optimal portfolio selection using an expected-utility-based assessment of capabilities and technologies; Temporal investment recommendations; Distinctions between enhancing and enabling capabilities; Analysis of partial funding for enhancing capabilities; and Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. START can run on almost any computing hardware, within Linux and related operating systems that include Mac OS X versions 10.3 and later, and can run in Windows under the Cygwin environment. START can be distributed in binary code form. START calls, as external libraries, several open-source software packages. Output is in Excel (.xls) file format.

Adumitroaie, Virgil↗

CELSS transportation analysis

The results of a study conducted in order to estimate where potential transportation cost savings can be anticipated by using CELSS technology for selected future manned space missions, are presented. Six manned missions ranging from a low earth orbit mission to those associated with asteroids and a Mars sortie are selected from NASA planning forecasts for study during an analysis of the transportation system. Several environmental control and life-support systems which are used in developing life-support closure scenarios are investigated for estimates of weight, volume, and power requirements. It is shown that when the scenarios are combined with the transportation analysis, mission life-support cost estimates are provided.

Olson, R. L.↗

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) project of NASA s Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies that will enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. This presents a particular challenge in the aviation system where people are key components and human error is frequently cited as a major contributing factor or cause of incidents and accidents. In the aviation "world", information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. This report describes a conceptual model and an approach to automated analyses of textual data sources for the subjective perspective of the reporter of the incident to aid in understanding why an incident occurred. It explores a first-generation process for routinely searching large databases of textual reports of aviation incident or accidents, and reliably analyzing them for causal factors of human behavior (the why of an incident). We have defined a generic structure of information that is postulated to be a sound basis for defining similarities between aviation incidents. Based on this structure, we have introduced the simplifying structure, which we call the Scenario as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. We believe that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that will aid aviation-safety experts to understand the systemic issues that are conducive to human error.

Maille, Nicolas P.↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Uncovering Hazards Using a Multi-Objective Optimization to Explore the Faulty State-Space

Considering resilience when designing complex engineered systems is crucial to ensure the system is safe under unexpected hazardous scenarios. Traditional risk-based approaches, such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) are useful for designing the system to mitigate hazardous scenarios that can be identified by the designer, but often require experience or prior knowledge of system failures to generate. More recently, researchers have developed simulation tools that enable the designer to model large sets of hazardous scenarios (driven by both internal faults and external factors) through simulation. While these tools enable a wider scope of fault modes to be evaluated (e.g., by injecting combined set of fault modes or injecting modes at different times), the resulting assessments (like FMEA) still require knowledge of the specific modes to be evaluated. However, failure to analyze a wide variety of fault scenarios can lead to an incomplete picture of the system resilience, especially to "surprise events'' which may be difficult for the designer to identify and predict beforehand. To overcome this challenge, previous work developed a fault sampling approach for resilience simulations which would procedurally-generate a wide variety of potential faults by systematically perturbing the health states of the system. While the resulting fault modes generated covered a much larger space hazards than would be otherwise considered (and identified many unique failure trajectories which would not have otherwise been identified), it also significantly increased the computational cost of the analysis and resulted in the simulation and analysis of a large set of essentially duplicate scenarios. Additionally, as the number of dimensions in the faulty state-space increases, the full elaboration of possible modes becomes computationally infeasible, justifying the use of a more targeted search. To resolve this limitation, this work proposes the use of a multiobjective optimization algorithm to search the health state space for potential fault modes that are both (1) hazardous and (2) unique. To solve this type of problem, this work proposes the use of a cooperative co-evolutionary algorithm. To demonstrate this approach, it will be applied to a model of an autonomous rover which uses line markings to navigate, focusing on potential hazards in the drive system which could cause the rover to crash. To determine the merit of the approach, it will further be compared with the previously-presented range elaboration approach and a random mode generation approach on the basis of computational efficiency and found modes.

Resilience↗

Thermal energy storage systems using fluidized bed heat exchangers

A rotary cement kiln and an electric arc furnace were chosen for evaluation to determine the applicability of a fluid bed heat exchanger (FBHX) for thermal energy storage (TES). Multistage shallow bed FBHX's operating with high temperature differences were identified as the most suitable for TES applications. Analysis of the two selected conceptual systems included establishing a plant process flow configuration, an operational scenario, a preliminary FBHX/TES design, and parametric analysis. A computer model was developed to determine the effects of the number of stages, gas temperatures, gas flows, bed materials, charge and discharge time, and parasitic power required for operation. The maximum national energy conservation potential of the cement plant application with TES is 15.4 million barrels of oil or 3.9 million tons of coal per year. For the electric arc furnance application the maximum national conservation potential with TES is 4.5 million barrels of oil or 1.1 million tons of coal per year. Present time of day utility rates are near the breakeven point required for the TES system. Escalation of on-peak energy due to critical fuel shortages could make the FBHX/TES applications economically attractive in the future.

Weast, T.↗

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Weinstock, Robert M↗

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

A Tool for Model-Based Generation of Scenario-driven Electric Power Load Profiles

Power consumption during all phases of spacecraft flight is of great interest to the aerospace community. As a result, significant analysis effort is exerted to understand the rates of electrical energy generation and consumption under many operational scenarios of the system. Previously, no standard tool existed for creating and maintaining a power equipment list (PEL) of spacecraft components that consume power, and no standard tool existed for generating power load profiles based on this PEL information during mission design phases. This paper presents the Scenario Power Load Analysis Tool (SPLAT) as a model-based systems engineering tool aiming to solve those problems. SPLAT is a plugin for MagicDraw (No Magic, Inc.) that aids in creating and maintaining a PEL, and also generates a power and temporal variable constraint set, in Maple language syntax, based on specified operational scenarios. The constraint set can be solved in Maple to show electric load profiles (i.e. power consumption from loads over time). SPLAT creates these load profiles from three modeled inputs: 1) a list of system components and their respective power modes, 2) a decomposition hierarchy of the system into these components, and 3) the specification of at least one scenario, which consists of temporal constraints on component power modes. In order to demonstrate how this information is represented in a system model, a notional example of a spacecraft planetary flyby is introduced. This example is also used to explain the overall functionality of SPLAT, and how this is used to generate electric power load profiles. Lastly, a cursory review of the usage of SPLAT on the Cold Atom Laboratory project is presented to show how the tool was used in an actual space hardware design application.

power load profile↗

Composite Structure Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Aircraft Fuselage Concepts

NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project and the Boeing Company are collabrating to advance the unitized damage arresting composite airframe technology with application to the Hybrid-Wing-Body (HWB) aircraft. The testing of a HWB fuselage section with Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) construction is presently being conducted at NASA Langley. Based on lessons learned from previous HWB structural design studies, improved finite-element models (FEM) of the HWB multi-bay and bulkhead assembly are developed to evaluate the performance of the PRSEUS construction. In order to assess the comparative weight reduction benefits of the PRSEUS technology, conventional cylindrical skin-stringer-frame models of a cylindrical and a double-bubble section fuselage concepts are developed. Stress analysis with design cabin-pressure load and scenario based case studies are conducted for design improvement in each case. Alternate analysis with stitched composite hat-stringers and C-frames are also presented, in addition to the foam-core sandwich frame and pultruded rod-stringer construction. The FEM structural stress, strain and weights are computed and compared for relative weight/strength benefit assessment. The structural analysis and specific weight comparison of these stitched composite advanced aircraft fuselage concepts demonstrated that the pressurized HWB fuselage section assembly can be structurally as efficient as the conventional cylindrical fuselage section with composite stringer-frame and PRSEUS construction, and significantly better than the conventional aluminum construction and the double-bubble section concept.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

An assessment of the crash fire hazard of liquid hydrogen fueled aircraft

The crash fire hazards of liquid hydrogen fueled aircraft relative to those of mission equivalent aircraft fueled either with conventional fuel or with liquefied methane were evaluated. The aircraft evaluated were based on Lockheed Corporation design for 400 passenger, Mach 0.85, 5500 n. mile aircraft. Four crash scenarios were considered ranging from a minor incident causing some loss of fuel system integrity to a catastrophic crash. Major tasks included a review of hazardous properties of the alternate fuels and of historic crash fire data; a comparative hazard evluation for each of the three fuels under four crash scenarios a comprehensive review and analysis and an identification of areas further development work. The conclusion was that the crash fire hazards are not significantly different when compared in general for the three fuels, although some fuels showed minor advantages in one respect or another.

Source record↗

Spectra of noise and amplified turbulence emanating from shock-turbulence interaction

This work is a small extension of NACA studies of the early fifties that predicted amplification of turbulence on passing through a shock wave (observed for turbulent boundary layers), as well as the generation of intense noise (observed for supersonic jets). The first solved the basic gasdynamics problem of the interaction of an infinite planar shock with a single three-dimensional spectrum component of turbulence (an oblique sinusoidal shear wave). The second developed the comprehensive 3D spectrum analysis necessary to generalize the scenario to the interaction of a shock wave with convected homogeneous turbulence. Numerical calculations were carried out to yield curves (vs. Mach number) of rms sound pressure, temperature fluctuation, and two components of turbulent velocity downstream of the shock, for two cases of preshock turbulence. The present numerical study reproduces these for one case and provides in addition their one-dimensional power spectra (vs. wavenumber of frequency). Ratios of the several postshock spectra to the longitudinal preshock turbulence spectrum (4D) have been computed for a wide range of Mach numbers; curves vs. wavenumber are presented for two scenarios of preshock turbulence: isotropy and axisymmetry, both based on the von Karman 3D spectrum.

Ribner, Herbert S.↗

Evolutionary use of nuclear electric propulsion

Evolving new propulsion technologies through a rational and conscious effort to minimize development costs and program risks while maximizing the performance benefits is intuitively practical. A phased approach to the evolution of nuclear electric propulsion from use on planetary probes, to lunar cargo vehicles, and finally to manned Mars missions with a concomitant growth in technology is considered. Technology levels and system component makeup are discussed for nuclear power systems and both ion and magnetoplasmadynamic thrusters. Mission scenarios are described, which include analysis of a probe to Pluto, a lunar cargo mission, Martian split, all-up, and quick-trip mission options. Evolutionary progression of the use of NEP in such missions is discussed.

Hack, K. J.↗

Automation life-cycle cost model

The problem domain being addressed by this contractual effort can be summarized by the following list: Automation and Robotics (A&R) technologies appear to be viable alternatives to current, manual operations; Life-cycle cost models are typically judged with suspicion due to implicit assumptions and little associated documentation; and Uncertainty is a reality for increasingly complex problems and few models explicitly account for its affect on the solution space. The objectives for this effort range from the near-term (1-2 years) to far-term (3-5 years). In the near-term, the envisioned capabilities of the modeling tool are annotated. In addition, a framework is defined and developed in the Decision Modelling System (DEMOS) environment. Our approach is summarized as follows: Assess desirable capabilities (structure into near- and far-term); Identify useful existing models/data; Identify parameters for utility analysis; Define tool framework; Encode scenario thread for model validation; and Provide transition path for tool development. This report contains all relevant, technical progress made on this contractual effort.

Gathmann, Thomas P.↗