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The distance to NGC 4725 has been derived from Cepheid variables, as part of the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project on the Extragalactic Distance Scale.
Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.
Research supported by this grant involved theoretical investigations of the multifrequency nonthermal emission from the relativistic jets in blazars, which are quasars and related objects with highly variable brightness. In the initial stage of the project, one-dimensional, conical (i.e., spherical symmetry between the jet axis and surface is assumed) jet models were used to explain the multi-waveband spectra and variability of blazars. The results were applied to two flares observed in the object PKS 2155-304, leading to the conclusion that the distinct differences in the observed characteristics of the two flares can be explained with the same jet model if two different physical parameters (the magnetic field in the first flare and the efficiency of acceleration of electrons to high energies in the second) varied.
Our project included a variety of activities, ranging from model development to data manipulation and even participation in the SHEBA and FIRE field experiments. The following sections outline the work accomplished under these tasks. A collection of reprints is attached to this report.
The development of the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR) was initiated in the late 1970s to address a critical requirement for fast, high-power interplanetary space transportation. While not being a fusion rocket, it nevertheless borrows heavily from that technology and takes advantage of the natural topology of open-ended magnetic systems. In addition to its high power density and high exhaust velocity, VASIMR is capable of "constant power throttling" a feature, which allows in-flight mission-optimization of thrust and specific impulse to enhance performance and reduce trip time. A NASA-led, research team, involving industry, academia and government facilities is pursuing the development of this concept in the United States. The technology can be validated, in the near term, in venues such as the International Space Station, where it can also serve as both a drag compensation device and a plasma contactor for the orbital facility. Other near-Earth applications in the commercial and scientific satellite sectors are also envisioned. This presentation covers the evolution of the VASIMR concept to its present status, as well as recent accomplishments in our understanding of the physics. Approaches and collaborative programs addressing the major technical challenges will also be presented.
Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.
NASA’s Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Sub-Project is engaged in research to support the introduction of air taxis into the National Airspace System. Such operations will require a range of communication, navigation, and surveillance systems. Air vehicles for UAM are under development and will initially have human pilots. Separation from other aircraft, obstacles, and weather may be a pilot responsibility or provided by an operator’s ground-based systems. Eventually, air taxis may be flown from the ground or fly autonomously. The variable separation concept adds separation buffers to air taxis depending upon their situation or location.
CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.
The NASA New Millennium Program Space Technology 7 (ST7) project was selected for the purpose of flight validation of technology for minimizing disturbances on spacecraft and freely-floating test masses. Measurements of the motion of test masses are used for determining the gravitational field in its location, providing information on the nearby mass distribution or looking gravitational waves generated by distant star systems. Any unmeasured forces acting on the test mass cause a deviation from a purely gravitational trajectory and so limit the accuracy of the gravity field estimation. The ST7 project will validate the capability to eliminate unwanted forces to a level 3000 times lower than the current state of the art. The ST7 design is based on the concept of a freely-floating test mass surrounded by a spacecraft which shields the test mass from unwanted disturbances. since some disturbance of the test mass can be caused by motion of the spacecraft itself with respect to the test mass, the disturbance reduction system includes the capability of precisely measuring the position of the spacecraft with respect to the test mass and control of the spacecraft position to within 1/100 of a wavelength of light.. The overall system performance of the ST7 project will be infused into space observatories for gravitational waves such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna project, and into future mission for mapping the time-variable Earth gravity field. The ST7 precision control capability also has applications for separated-spacecraft interferometric imaging projects. ST7 will consist of an instrument package and a set of microthrusters, which will be attached to the European Space Agency’s LISA Pathfinder spacecraft with launch scheduled for 2008.
Observational data are essential for Earth science research and applications. Traditional ground-based observations suffer from many limitations (e.g. costly deployment). As a result, data are often sparse and inconsistent, especially over vast oceans that cover nearly 71% of the Earth's surface, and for remote continents. Precipitation is one of the important physical parameters in the global hydrological cycle and other disciplines. Each year, severe floods and droughts happen in different parts of the world and cause significant damage to the economy, as well as human casualties (e.g. Hurricane Katrina, the Dust Bowl). Accurate and timely precipitation observations and predictions are important for research and applications. However, ground-based precipitation observations are quite limited, especially in remote and mountainous regions. Since the satellite era began, satellite-based precipitation products have gained popularity in Earth science research, applications, and education. Accessing satellite products can be a daunting task to many users, especially those who do not have prior experience or knowledge with satellite data. Recognizing this obstacle, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences and Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), home to data archives for the NASA-JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), has developed data services including an online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni (the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure), enabling users at different levels to access, explore, and evaluate NASA satellite-based data products without downloading either data and software, or requiring coding. Currently, global and regional precipitation products from different satellite missions (TRMM, GPM) and projects (e.g. the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)), ranging from half-hourly to monthly temporal resolution, are available in Giovanni. There are over 1900 variables in Giovanni, covering measurements in precipitation, hydrology, atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, etc. In this poster presentation, we will provide a live demonstration of Giovanni and its latest development, including precipitation-related variables, and new basic features such as polar projections. The session will also provide a Q&A opportunity for attendees.
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.
The Miniaturized Variable Pressure Scanning Electron Microscope(MVP-SEM) project, funded by the NASA Planetary Instrument Concepts for the Advancement of Solar System Observations (PICASSO) Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES), will build upon previous miniaturized SEM designs for lunar and International Space Station (ISS) applications and recent advancements in variable pressure SEM's to design and build a SEM to complete analyses of samples on the surface of Mars using the atmosphere as an imaging medium. By the end of the PICASSO work, a prototype of the primary proof-of-concept components (i.e., the electron gun, focusing optics and scanning system)will be assembled and preliminary testing in a Mars analog chamber at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory will be completed to partially fulfill Technology Readiness Level to 5 requirements for those components. The team plans to have Secondary Electron Imaging(SEI), Backscattered Electron (BSE) detection, and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) capabilities through the MVP-SEM.
We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.
The 12 Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel is a variable density, low turbulence wind tunnel that operates at subsonic speeds, and up to six atmospheres total pressure. The restoration of this facility is of critical importance to the future of the U.S. aerospace industry. As part of this project, several state of the art model support systems are furnished to provide an optimal balance between aerodynamic and operational efficiency parameters. Two model support systems, the Rear Strut Model Support, and the High Angle of Attack Model Support are discussed. This paper covers design parameters, constraints, development, description, and component selection.
As part of the effort to reduce the costs of shuttle payloads, this study was performed to determine the minimum, mandatory design and verification criteria necessary to insure that sortie payloads are compatible with the space shuttle system; distinguishing them from those criteria related primarily to mission success, configuration choices, management prerogatives, or other cost-benefit variables which are, therefore, discretionary to payload project management. It was concluded that utilization of the mandatory design criteria, presented in this report, as the basis for sortie payload specifications will produce basic systems compatibility between the orbiter and its sortie payloads at reduced costs. Also, when additional criteria are generated due to changes in subsystems, designs, or guidelines, the categorization methodology developed can aid managerial decision-making concerning these criteria. To a limited degree, the compatibility criteria as defined in this study reflect a portion of the total system safety effort involved in a manned space program.
As a part of the project 'Landsat-studies for Mapping the Variables within Water Areas' this study deals with the classification possibilities of evaluating and mapping depth relations and bottom materials within the barren and clear-watered shores of Lake Yli-Kitka, North-Eastern Finland. It has been discovered that it is possible to distinguish open water areas with a water depth of more than about half of the Secchi disk depth from those of shallower hydrolittoral areas. The morainic, sandy and only slightly vegetated subareas of the shallow shores and shoals can possibly be identified by using a simple classification procedure. The data used were recorded by the coarse-resolution Landsat MSS imagery system, and better results are expected after the experiences of the Landsat TM data and the availability of the SPOT material.
Brian Patten is the Principal Investigator of the NASA ROSS-ADP project Coronal Activity in the R CrA T Association. For this project we have extracted net counts and variability information for all of the X-ray sources found in 23 archival ROSAT PSPC and HRI images in the region of the R CrA T association. These data have been merged with an extensive database of optical and near-infrared photometry, optical spectroscopy, and parallax data. These data have been used to (1) identify new association members and clarify the membership status of a number of previously suspected members of the association, and (2) derive, for the first time, an accurate coronal luminosity function for the T Tauri members of this T association and make direct comparisons between the coronal luminosity functions for other T associations and those of large clusters. We have used our survey data to assess (a) the importance of the star-formation environment in initial coronal activity levels, (b) the effects of PMS evolution on dynamo activity as a function of mass and age, and (c) the level of contamination by field post-T Tauri stars on association membership surveys.
An overview of the work performed by Rolls-Royce under contract NNL08AA29C is presented. The work includes computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis for, and design of, a highly variable cycle exhaust model for the Supersonic project (NRA NN06ZEA001N). The CFD analysis shows that the latest design improvements to the clam shell doors have increased flow through the ejector over that achieved with previous designs.