Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “error modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Meta-Modeling: A Knowledge-Based Approach to Facilitating Model Construction and Reuse

In this paper, we introduce a new modeling approach called meta-modeling and illustrate its practical applicability to the construction of physically-based ecosystem process models. As a critical adjunct to modeling codes meta-modeling requires explicit specification of certain background information related to the construction and conceptual underpinnings of a model. This information formalizes the heretofore tacit relationship between the mathematical modeling code and the underlying real-world phenomena being investigated, and gives insight into the process by which the model was constructed. We show how the explicit availability of such information can make models more understandable and reusable and less subject to misinterpretation. In particular, background information enables potential users to better interpret an implemented ecosystem model without direct assistance from the model author. Additionally, we show how the discipline involved in specifying background information leads to improved management of model complexity and fewer implementation errors. We illustrate the meta-modeling approach in the context of the Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant (SIGMA) a new model construction environment. As the user constructs a model using SIGMA the system adds appropriate background information that ties the executable model to the underlying physical phenomena under investigation. Not only does this information improve the understandability of the final model it also serves to reduce the overall time and programming expertise necessary to initially build and subsequently modify models. Furthermore, SIGMA's use of background knowledge helps eliminate coding errors resulting from scientific and dimensional inconsistencies that are otherwise difficult to avoid when building complex models. As a. demonstration of SIGMA's utility, the system was used to reimplement and extend a well-known forest ecosystem dynamics model: Forest-BGC.

Keller, Richard M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Navigation accuracy analysis for the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS) experiment on EP/EUVE

A navigation accuracy analysis of the TONS (TDRSS Onboard Navigation System) experiment on the Explorer Platform/Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EP/EUVE) is reported. The analysis process includes both sequential estimation covariance analysis and the processing of 'realistic' simulated tracking data. The sensitivity of the navigation accuracy to force modeling and measurement errors is evaluated as a function of the tracking schedule and the process noise model tuning parameters.

Gramling, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling the two-point correlation of the vector stream function

A new model for the two-point vector stream function correlation has been developed using tensor invariant arguments and evaluated by the comparison of model predictions with DNS data for incompressible homogeneous turbulent shear flow. This two-point vector stream function model correlation can then be used to calculate the two-point velocity correlation function and other quantities useful in turbulence modeling. The model assumes that the two-point vector stream function correlation can be written in terms of the separation vector and a new tensor function that depends only on the magnitude of the separation vector. The model has a single free model coefficient, which has been chosen by comparison with the DNS data. The relative error of the model predictions of the two-point vector stream function correlation is only a few percent for a broad range of the model coefficient. Predictions of the derivatives of this correlation, which are of interest in turbulence modeling, may not be this accurate.

Oberlack, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Babcock, Chad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SO2 Plumes Observation with LMOL: Theory, Modeling, and Validation

LMOL, the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar, is located near NASA’s LaRC steam plant when not deployed in campaigns. The plant produces steam through the incineration of local trash, and its exhaust plume occasionally contains SO2 . SO2 is a known, regulated, pollutant that affects O3 observations in the UV, as is the case with LMOL. In this work, we show how we modified LMOL to detect the plant SO2 plumes and compute its density when the O3 background is stable; we observed densities compatible with what is expected from the typical plume exhaust. The selection of laser lines so that an O3 variation would not get confused with a SO2 detection is explained in details, and a model capable of simulating the Lidar signal with (notably) O3 and SO2 absorption for the validation of the retrieval resolution and uncertainty is presented. Finally, the comparison between the modeled and observed performances of the system is shown: the maximum altitude, resolution, and error in the modeled signal and the observed signals are the same within reasonable margins. This work demonstrates that LMOL is fully capable of working with SO2 . The next step being the addition of an additional laser channel, which is simplified by the tunable aspect of the LMOL laser, to address O3 and SO2 simultaneously, allowing the assessment of SO2 when O3 has variations. Note: This presentation is accompanied by an mp4 video of the given talk.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
DOE OSTI2018

Strategies and Software for Machine Learning Accelerated Discovery in Transition Metal Chemistry

Machine learning the electronic structure of open shell transition metal complexes presents unique challenges, including robust and automated data set generation. In this report we introduce tools that simplify data acquisition from density functional theory (DFT) and validation of trained machine learning models using the molSimplify automatic design (mAD) workflow. We demonstrate this workflow by training and comparing the performance of LASSO, kernel ridge regression (KRR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models using heuristic, topological revised autocorrelation (RAC) descriptors we have recently introduced for machine learning inorganic chemistry. On a series of open shell transition metal complexes, we evaluate set aside test errors of these models for predicting the HOMO level and HOMO–LUMO gap. The best performing models are ANNs, which show 0.15 and 0.25 eV test set mean absolute errors on the HOMO level and HOMO–LUMO gap, respectively. Poor performing KRR models using the full 153-feature RAC set are improved to nearly the same performance as the ANNs when trained on down-selected subsets of 20–30 features. Analysis of the essential descriptors for HOMO level and HOMO–LUMO gap prediction as well as comparison to subsets previously obtained for other properties reveal the paramount importance of nonlocal, steric properties in determining frontier molecular orbital energetics. We demonstrate our model performance on diverse complexes and in the discovery of molecules with target HOMO–LUMO gaps from a large 15,000 molecule design space in minutes rather than days that full DFT evaluation would require.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1978

A parametric multiclass Bayes error estimator for the multispectral scanner spatial model performance evaluation

The author has identified the following significant results. The probability of correct classification of various populations in data was defined as the primary performance index. The multispectral data being of multiclass nature as well, required a Bayes error estimation procedure that was dependent on a set of class statistics alone. The classification error was expressed in terms of an N dimensional integral, where N was the dimensionality of the feature space. The multispectral scanner spatial model was represented by a linear shift, invariant multiple, port system where the N spectral bands comprised the input processes. The scanner characteristic function, the relationship governing the transformation of the input spatial, and hence, spectral correlation matrices through the systems, was developed.

Mobasseri, B. G.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simplified model of pinhole imaging for quantifying systematic errors in image shape

In this paper, we examine systematic errors in x-ray imaging by pinhole optics for quantifying uncertainties in the measurement of convergence and asymmetry in inertial confinement fusion implosions. We present a quantitative model for the total resolution of a pinhole optic with an imaging detector that more effectively describes the effect of diffraction than models that treat geometry and diffraction as independent. This model can be used to predict loss of shape detail due to imaging across the transition from geometric to diffractive optics. We find that fractional error in observable shapes is proportional to the total resolution element we present and inversely proportional to the length scale of the asymmetry being observed. Finally, we have experimentally validated our results by imaging a single object with differently sized pinholes and with different magnifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Preliminary GPS orbit determination results for the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

A single-frequency Motorola Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver was launched with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer mission in June 1992. The receiver utilizes dual GPS antennas placed on opposite sides of the satellite to obtain full GPS coverage as it rotates during its primary scanning mission. A data set from this GPS experiment has been processed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory with the GIPSY-OASIS 2 software package. The single-frequency, dual antenna approach and the low altitude (approximately 500 km) orbit of the satellite create special problems for the GPS orbit determination analysis. The low orbit implies that the dynamics of the spacecraft will be difficult to model, and that atmospheric drag will be an important error source. A reduced-dynamic solution technique was investigated in which ad hoc accelerations were estimated at each time step to absorb dynamic model error. In addition, a single-frequency ionospheric correction was investigated, and a cycle-slip detector was written. Orbit accuracy is currently better than 5 m. Further optimization should improve this to about 1 m.

Gold, Kenn↗
DOE OSTI2016

Thermodynamics of Anharmonic Systems: Uncoupled Mode Approximations for Molecules

The partition functions, heat capacities, entropies, and enthalpies of selected molecules were calculated using uncoupled mode (UM) approximations, where the full-dimensional potential energy surface for internal motions was modeled as a sum of independent one-dimensional potentials for each mode. The computational cost of such approaches scales the same with molecular size as standard harmonic oscillator vibrational analysis using harmonic frequencies (HO hf ). To compute thermodynamic properties, a computational protocol for obtaining the energy levels of each mode was established. The accuracy of the UM approximation depends strongly on how the one-dimensional potentials of each modes are defined. If the potentials are determined by the energy as a function of displacement along each normal mode (UM-N), the accuracies of the calculated thermodynamic properties are not significantly improved versus the HO hf model. Significant improvements can be achieved by constructing potentials for internal rotations and vibrations using the energy surfaces along the torsional coordinates and the remaining vibrational normal modes, respectively (UM-VT). For hydrogen peroxide and its isotopologs at 300 K, UM-VT captures more than 70% of the partition functions on average. By con trast, the HO hf model and UM-N can capture no more than 50%. For a selected test set of C2 to C8 linear and branched alkanes and species with different moieties, the enthalpies calculated using the HO hf model, UM-N, and UM-VT are all quite accurate comparing with reference values though the RMS errors of the HO model and UM-N are slightly higher than UM-VT. However, the accuracies in entropy calculations differ significantly between these three models. For the same test set, the RMS error of the standard entropies calculated by UM-VT is 2.18 cal mol -1 K -1 at 1000 K. By contrast, the RMS error obtained using the HO model and UM-N are 6.42 and 5.73 cal mol -1 K -1 , respectively. For a test set composed of nine alkanes ranging from C5 to C8, the heat capacities calculated with the UM-VT model agree with the experimental values to within a RMS error of 0.78 cal mol -1 K -1 , which is less than one-third of the RMS error of the HO hf (2.69 cal mol -1 K -1) and UM-N (2.41 cal mol -1 K -1) models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1990

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Boville, Byron A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probability density function model describing height estimation uncertainty due to image pixel intensity noise in digital fringe projection measurements

Digital fringe projection is a surface-profiling technique used for highly accurate non-contact measurements. As with any measurement technique, a variety of sources degrade to the measurement accuracy of the method. Here, this paper presents an analytically-derived probability density function that explicitly models the surface height measurement error due to inevitable phase measurement error, and it includes the specific case of pixel noise inducing the phase measurement error that ultimately leads to the height estimation error. The accuracy of the model was validated through Monte-Carlo simulations of resultant height distributions subject to arbitrarily correlated pixel intensity noise and experimental digital fringe projection measurements where the pixel-by-pixel height uncertainty estimations were compared to the predictions of the derived model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel Data Driven Noise Emulation Framework using Deep Neural Network for Generating Synthetic PMU Measurements

Sensors play a critical role in supporting day-to-day grid operations and they are essential to operator’s decision-making process. Furthermore, sensors and sensor behaviors need to be emulated with grid simulations to perform modeling studies and to design cutting edge power systems applications. Ensuring the accurate behavior of these applications requires accurate emulation of sensors and pertinent signals. However, most grid simulators and modeling tools assume either zero error scenarios or simplistic noise models that may not always correlate to real-world sensors. To address the above issue, this work presents an initial study on the noise characteristics of phasor measurement units (PMUs), along with models for recreating their unique noise signatures. The proposed methods (both analytical and machine-learning-based) provide a substantial increase in a sensor’s model fidelity, a feature that can be leveraged by an end-user application to yield more accurate system representations. The proposed methods were then applied to micro PMU data from the EPFL microgrid campus to extract sensor noise profiles. This data was used to train a deep learning model, which was tested to emulate the noise characteristics present in actual signals. Based on the observed results and the employed data-driven methodology, the proposed methods may be adapted to replicate the behavior of other grid sensors and power new applications capable of detecting sensor degradation and eventual device failures in near real-time.

PMU, noise emulation, synthetic measurements, deep↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Correlation between Mixing Length and Metallicity on the Giant Branch: Implications for Ages in the Gaia Era

In the updated APOGEE- Kepler catalog, we have asteroseismic and spectroscopic data for over 3000 first ascent red giants. Given the size and accuracy of this sample, these data offer an unprecedented test of the accuracy of stellar models on the post-main-sequence. When we compare these data to theoretical predictions, we find a metallicity dependent temperature offset with a slope of around 100 K per dex in metallicity. We find that this effect is present in all model grids tested, and that theoretical uncertainties in the models, correlated spectroscopic errors, and shifts in the asteroseismic mass scale are insufficient to explain this effect. Stellar models can be brought into agreement with the data if a metallicity-dependent convective mixing length is used, with Δ α {sub ML,YREC} ∼ 0.2 per dex in metallicity, a trend inconsistent with the predictions of three-dimensional stellar convection simulations. If this effect is not taken into account, isochrone ages for red giants from the Gaia data will be off by as much as a factor of two even at modest deviations from solar metallicity ([Fe/H] = −0.5).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1971

Thermal scale modeling

Complex system study data indicate that factors associated with multilayer insulation pose major problem in scale modeling, that numerical analysis aids correction for known compromises of scaling criteria, and that probable errors in scale modeling experiments fall within range predicted by statistical analysis.

Mac Gregor, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Effects of multipath fading on low data-rate space communications.

Studies have shown that there is a severe signal fading at the turbulent atmosphere of a distant planet such as Venus. The data may be lost during deep fade. It is the objective of this paper to examine the effects of multipath fading on the performance of the noncoherent coded system which is used for the low data-rate space communications especially with the small probes. An exact error probability of the wideband noncoherent MFSK receiver is derived from using the 'Rician' channel model. While the error performance of the receiver is worse than that of the ideal MFSK receiver, as expected, it is interesting to note that the performance degradation due to the multipath fading diminishes as the product of bit duration and IF filter bandwidth becomes large.

Chen, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Flight test results of the strapdown ring laser gyro tetrad inertial navigation system

A helicopter flight test program undertaken to evaluate the performance of Tetrad (a strap down, laser gyro, inertial navigation system) is described. The results of 34 flights show a mean final navigational velocity error of 5.06 knots, with a standard deviation of 3.84 knots; a corresponding mean final position error of 2.66 n. mi., with a standard deviation of 1.48 n. mi.; and a modeled mean position error growth rate for the 34 tests of 1.96 knots, with a standard deviation of 1.09 knots. No laser gyro or accelerometer failures were detected during the flight tests. Off line parity residual studies used simulated failures with the prerecorded flight test and laboratory test data. The airborne Tetrad system's failure--detection logic, exercised during the tests, successfully demonstrated the detection of simulated ""hard'' failures and the system's ability to continue successfully to navigate by removing the simulated faulted sensor from the computations. Tetrad's four ring laser gyros provided reliable and accurate angular rate sensing during the 4 yr of the test program, and no sensor failures were detected during the evaluation of free inertial navigation performance.

Carestia, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Simulation and model reduction for the AFW program

The simulation methodology used in the Active Flexible Wing wind-tunnel test program is described. An overview of the aeroservoelastic modeling used in building the required batch and hot-bench simulations is presented. Successful hot-bench implementation required that the full mathematical model be significantly reduced while assuring that accuracy be maintained for all combinations of 10 inputs and 56 outputs. The reduction was accomplished by using a method based on internally balanced realizations and focussing on the linear, aeroelastic portion of the full mathematical model. The error-bound properties of the internally balanced realization significantly contribute to its utility in the model reduction process. The reduction method and the results achieved are described.

Buttrill, Carey↗