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NASA NTRS2023

The Historical Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) Curated and Augmented Level-1 Dataset

The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) consists of 31 automatic weather stations (AWSs) at 30 sites across the Greenland Ice Sheet. The first site was initiated in 1990, and the project has operated almost continuously since 1995 under the leadership of the late Konrad Steffen. The GC-Net AWS measured air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, downward and reflected shortwave irradiance, net radiation, and ice and firn temperatures. The majority of the GC-Net sites were located in the ice sheet accumulation area (17 AWSs), while 11 AWSs were located in the ablation area, and two sites (three AWSs) were located close to the equilibrium line altitude. Additionally, three AWSs of similar design to the GC-Net AWS were installed by Konrad Steffen's team on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica. After more than 3 decades of operation, the GC-Net AWSs are being decommissioned and replaced by new AWSs operated by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Therefore, making a reassessment of the historical GC-Net AWS data is necessary. We present a full reprocessing of the historical GC-Net AWS dataset with increased attention to the filtering of erroneous measurements, data correction and derivation of additional variables: continuous surface height, instrument heights, surface albedo, turbulent heat fluxes, and 10 m ice and firn temperatures. This new augmented GC-Net level-1 (L1) AWS dataset is now available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2023) and will continue to be refined. The processing scripts, latest data and a data user forum are available at https://github.com/GEUS-Glaciology-and-Climate/GC-Net-level-1-data-processing (last access: 30 November 2023). In addition to the AWS data, a comprehensive compilation of valuable metadata is provided: maintenance reports, yearly pictures of the stations and the station positions through time. This unique dataset provides more than 320 station years of high-quality atmospheric data and is available following FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) data and code practices.

Greenland Climate Network↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Long-term Trends in the Collection 4 Total Ozone Record from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

Long-term changes in total ozone affect the amount of harmful UV radiation reaching Earth’s surface and reflect progress made towards recovery of stratospheric ozone. Satellite total ozone data are also used to estimate long-term trends in tropospheric ozone, a reactive and potent greenhouse gas, by subtracting the stratospheric column timeseries from that of total ozone. For these scientific applications, the long-term stability should be better than 1%. Left unchecked, instrument calibration drift can produce a trend of this magnitude or greater. NASA has produced nearly twenty years of total ozone data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) algorithm. The drift in the OMI instrument as monitored by ice radiance calibration has been relatively slow, but it has reached a level of ~3% over the mission lifetime. This drift was corrected in the recently released Collection 4 OMI calibrated radiances, updating the Collection 3 calibration released in 2006. We have reprocessed the OMI total ozone record using the Collection 4 calibration and updates to the TOMS algorithm. We summarize these changes and evaluate their impact by comparing to the previous Collection 3 OMI dataset, the Suomi NPP Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) and Solar Backscatter UV (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD) total ozone records and other independent satellite total ozone datasets. Climatological radiance residuals from OMI and OMPS-NM are calculated and compared to investigate differences in spectral calibration that can cause drifts in long-term total ozone trends. We also analyze the tropospheric ozone record produced using the Collection 4 OMI total ozone and stratospheric column ozone from MLS. Collection 3 OMI data processed with the TOMS algorithm show a positive drift relative to other satellite and ground-based data of 1-2 DU per decade. Initial results show that this drift is reduced in Collection 4 OMI, due to the updated OMI calibration. In this work we will quantify the improvements in Collection 4 OMI relative to independent data sources at both the ozone and radiance level

Collection 4 OMI Total Ozone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving IPATS Channel-to-Channel Registration Assessment

The Image Navigation and Registration (INR) Performance Assessment Tool Set (IPATS) is a primary tool for assessing INR performance of GOES-R series ABI images. IPATS assesses five INR metrics: navigation, channel-to-channel registration (CCR), frame-to-frame registration, within-frame registration, and swath-to-swath registration. It was discovered that CCR assessment results between Visible-Near-Infrared (VNIR) channels and Infrared (IR) channels exhibits an annual oscillation in the north-south (NS) direction and a diurnal oscillation in the east-west (EW) direction, with an amplitude of approximately 5 μrad and 2.5 μrad, respectively. However, differences of navigation assessment results between VNIR and IR channels do not exhibit the annual or diurnal oscillations observed in CCR results. This indicates that the observed oscillations are due to measurement errors. The characteristics of the oscillations imply that cloud shadows are a possible cause of these measurement errors. In this study, several methods are explored to minimize the impact of cloud shadows on VNIR to IR CCR assessments: a) assessment at landmark locations only; b) using navigation assessment results to filter CCR assessments; c) using the ABI clear-sky-ratio product as a cloud mask; and d) smaller CCR assessment windows. In this paper, each method and a combination of several methods are evaluated based on assessment accuracy and the number of successful assessments. The selected approach is then used to reprocess GOES-16 ABI CCR data to show reductions in the annual and diurnal measurement error oscillations.

INR↗
NASA NTRS2024

VIIRS Version 2 Deep Blue Aerosol Products

NASA's Deep Blue aerosol project has developed global aerosol data records using consistent retrieval algorithms applied to various satellite sensors. The primary components of these data records are derived from the series of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA-20+ satellites as well as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), among others. These instruments provide over 23 years of measurements with similar radiometric characteristics for aerosol retrievals. The algorithms used for the initial Version 1 SNPP VIIRS data set were based on the MODIS Collection 6.1 Deep Blue algorithm over land and Satellite Ocean Aerosol Retrieval (SOAR) algorithm over water. For VIIRS Version 2 data reprocessing, major updates have been made to the algorithm suite, including better accounting for effects of surface pressure, improved determination of surface reflectance, and the inclusion of fine-mode aerosol optical models to better represent anthropogenic aerosols over land. Cross-calibration gain factors are derived for the NOAA-20 VIIRS measurements to be consistent with the SNPP VIIRS, which allows the use of a unified algorithm package for both instruments. Comparisons against AERONET observations indicate that the Version 2 AOD data from SNPP VIIRS are significantly better than the Version 1 counterpart over land and slightly degraded over water in exchange for better spatial coverage. The AOD data from SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS are comparable, indicating that cross-calibration enables the creation of consistent aerosol data records using the series of VIIRS sensors.

Deep Blue↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GPM Status and Future Activities

The joint U.S.-Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is approaching a decade of operations, and continues to pursue research, dataset production, and outreach related to precipitation. Key activities over the last year were the release of an improved “Version 07” of all GPM precipitation and latent heating products, boosting the orbit of the GPM Core Observatory (GPM CO) to 435 km, and improving quality control on precipitation retrievals from the GPM constellation of passive microwave satellites. This presentation summarizes key improvements to the GPM products and provides some examples of the changes between Versions 06 and 07 in algorithm performance. One important operational change that affected Version 07 is that the scanning strategy for the Ka-band radar channel changed in May 2018; all products that depend on Ka were revised to accommodate this change. For example, in Version 07 the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm has implemented improvements in regions where orographic enhancement and suppression take place and where the surface is snowy/icy, and again covers radiometers reaching back to 1987. The Combined Radar Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA) now incorporates modified drop-size distribution constraints that substantially reduce bias. Revisions to the Convective-Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm employ new radiative transfer retrievals as well as accounting for terrain in the vertical coordinates. Each algorithm was adjusted to ensure continuity for each product across the boundary in 2014 between the predecessor Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the GPM CO. The U.S. Science Team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) was upgraded to account for distortions in the probability density function of regional precipitation rates due to weighted averaging in the Kalman filter used for “morphing” the passive microwave data. Maintaining the GPM CO orbital altitude in the the current very active solar cycle has been forcing the use of more fuel than planned and consequently shortening the forecasted life of the mission from the early 2030's to the late 2020's. It was considered vital to regain some of this lifetime to ensure overlap with the upcoming Atmosphere Observing System mission to provide crosscalibration of instruments. To accomplish this, the orbital altitude was raised from 400 to 435 km on 7-8 November 2023. Thereafter, the primary GPM CO algorithms had to be revised to account for the change in observing parameters. By meeting time this action should be complete. Recently, a screening algorithm based on auto-encoding was developed that uncovered 162 orbits (out of the many thousands of orbits across all years and all satellites) of passive microwave retrievals that had highly anomalous values. Removing these defective retrievals has improved the integrity of both the GPROF and IMERG records. However, the nature of the IMERG processing interacted sufficiently badly with the now-discovered anomalous orbits that it was necessary to completely reprocess the IMERG Final Run record, now labeled Version 07B. The presentation also considers major issues that require continued attention, including the use of machine learning algorithms and the operational challenge of swarms of “small”, perhaps short-lived satellites.

GPM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Source Science-Driven Development of the Science Data System (SDS) for Earth System Observatory (ESO) Atmospheric Missions

The NASA Earth System Observatory (ESO) atmospheric missions will provide space-based and suborbital observations of collocated cloud, dynamic, precipitation and aerosol processing leading to improved weather, air quality, and climate predictions. The Science Data System (SDS) will deploy the adaptive processing system (APS) developed within the Cloud to manage the research and operational processing of ESO atmospheric mission orbital and suborbital sensors and curate these data for near real-time and collection reprocessing and transfer them to a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for long-term storage and distribution. Further, the SDS will follow guidelines provided by NASA Earth Science Data Systems (ESDS) program including standard conventions for data file formats, naming, and metadata to improve data interoperability, interpretability, usability, discovery, provenance, and spatiotemporal representativeness. The SDS follows NASA’s commitment to Open-Source Science (OSS) including the sharing of data, software, and knowledge in an open and timely manner. Each of the SDS system components will be developed with open-source concepts including components of APS itself as well as ESO atmospheric mission algorithms. This presentation describes the framework of the SDS and its integral part in facilitating OSS within the ESO atmospheric missions.

David M. Giles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Surface Radiation Budget Project: A Look Back and A Look Forward

The NASA Langley Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project, historically associated with GEWEX, has provided estimates of surface and TOA shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud properties and radiances as primary input. The first release was in 1995 (Whitlock et al., 1995) at daily 2.5° resolution. Subsequent releases have improved physics, temporal and spatial resolution, as well as increasing the total length of the time series. Release 4 in 2019 (Kummerow et al., 2019) is on a 1° nested grid, with temporal resolutions from 3-hourly to daily and monthly. It originally spanned from July 1983 to December 2017 and has since been extended through 2019. Release 4 uses the ISCCP H series of data, a complete reprocessing which retains more pixels than the previous D series, used in prior SRB versions. SRB data has been used extensively by a wide range of customers, including but not limited to the solar energy community, climate modelers, architects, oceanographers, and the agricultural community. It is an especial feature of SRB that global radiation budget data are available from the 1983 through 2000 period, which is prior to CERES providing alternate data, and then 2000 through near present to provide overlap coverage. Here we use the 36.5 year record of SRB Release 4 to examine the changes in shortwave and longwave fluxes over the period, including the changes in different regions of the globe. We examine energy budget features such as hemispheric symmetry and implied meridional transport of energy. We look at the variability of these features prior to and during the CERES period and compare to later products. We also look at Release 5, currently under development. This version will provide 0.5° resolution. In addition to surface and TOA radiative fluxes it will include fluxes at several atmospheric layers, and some spectral features beyond the broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes in Release 4 and prior. The shortwave algorithm is undergoing a complete change from the Pinker-Laszlo algorithm. Shortwave fluxes will now be calculated from a forward call to the Fu-Liou radiative transfer model as modified by the CERES team (Rose et al., 2006). Input datasets are being improved, including surface properties, atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity, aerosols, and total solar irradiance. Preliminary results from Release 5 and comparisons to Release 4 will be shown.

Earth Radiation Budget↗
NASA NTRS2023

Assessment of the Performance of the Atmospheric Correction Algorithm MAJA for Sentinel-2 Surface Reflectance Estimates

The correction of atmospheric effects on optical remote sensing products is an essential component of Analysis Ready Data (ARD) production lines. The MAJA processor aims at providing accurate time series of surface reflectances over land for satellite missions, such as Sentinel-2, Venμs, and Landsat 8. The Centre d’Études Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO) and the Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES) share a common effort to maintain, validate, and improve the MAJA processor, using state-of-the-art ground measurement sites, and participating in processor inter-comparisons, such as the Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX). While contributing to the second ACIX-II Land validation exercise, it was found that the candidate MAJA dataset could not adequately be compared to the main reference dataset. MAJA reflectances were corrected for adjacency and topography effects while the reference dataset was not, excluding MAJA from a part of the performance metrics of the exercise. The first part of the following study aims at providing complementary performance assessment to ACIX-II by reprocessing MAJA surface reflectances without adjacency nor topographic correction, allowing for an un-biased full resolution comparison with the reference Sentinel-2 dataset. The second part of the study consists of validating MAJA against surface reflectance measurements time series of up to five years acquired at three automated stations. Both approaches provide extensive insights on the quality of MAJA Sentinel-2 Level 2 products.

ROSAS↗
NASA NTRS2023

The 50-Year Landsat Collection 2 Archive

The Landsat global consolidated data archive now exceeds 50 years. In recognition of the need for consistently processed data across the Landsat satellite series, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated collection-based processing of the entire archive that was processed as Collection 1 in 2016. In preparation for the data from the now successfully launched Landsat 9, the USGS reprocessed the Landsat archive as Collection 2 in 2020. This paper describes the rationale for, and the contents and advancements provided by Collection 2, and highlights the differences between the Collection 1 and Collection 2 products. Notably, the Collection 2 products have improved geolocation and, for the first time, the USGS provides a global inventory of Level 2 surface reflectance and surface temperature products. Also for the first time, the USGS used a commercial cloud computing architecture to efficiently process the archive and enable direct cloud access of the Landsat products. The paper concludes with discussion of likely improvements expected in Collection 3 in preparation for the Landsat Next mission that is planned for launch in the early 2030s.

Christopher J Crawford↗
NASA NTRS2024

The CARMENES Search for Exoplanets Around M Dwarfs: Revisiting the GJ 581 Multi-Planetary System With New Doppler Measurements From CARMENES, HARPS, and HIRES

Context.GJ 581 is a nearby M dwarf known to host a packed multiple planet system composed of two super-Earths and a Neptune-mass planet. We present new orbital analyses of the GJ 581 system, utilizing recent radial velocity (RV) data obtained from the CARMENES spectrograph combined with newly reprocessed archival data from the HARPS and HIRES spectrographs. Aims.Our aim was to analyze the post-discovery spectroscopic data of GJ 581, which were obtained with CARMENES. In addition, we used publicly available HIRES and HARPS spectroscopic data to seek evidence of the known and disputed exoplanets in this system. We aimed to investigate the stellar activity of GJ 581 and update the planetary system’s orbital parameters using state-of-the-art numerical models and techniques. Methods.We performed a periodogram analysis of the available precise CARMENES, HIRES, and HARPS RVs and of stellar activity indicators. We conducted detailed orbital analyses by testing various orbital configurations consistent with the RV data. We studied the posterior probability distribution of the parameters fit to the data and we explored the long-term stability and overall orbital dynamics of the GJ 581 system. Results. We refined the orbital parameters of the GJ 581 system using the most precise and complete set of Doppler data available. Consistent with the existing literature, our analysis confirms that the system is unequivocally composed of only three planets detectable in the present data, dismissing the putative planet GJ 581 d as an artifact of stellar activity. Our N-body fit reveals that the system’s inclination is i=47.0+14.6−13.0deg, which implies that the planets could be up to 30% more massive than their previously reported minimum masses. Furthermore, we report that the GJ 581 system exhibits long-term stability, as indicated by the posterior probability distribution, characterized by secular dynamical interactions without the involvement of mean motion resonances.

Satellites↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG)

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) product from the U.S. Science Team of the NASA-JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provides global satellite precipitation estimates for a wide range of scientific research and societal applications. By adopting a constellation approach using low-Earth orbit passive microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared observations from domestic and international partners, IMERG is able to achieve a high resolution of 0.1° every half-hour globally, with three Runs to cater to applications with different latency requirements. With the completion of the reprocessing of the latest version, IMERG V07 now provides improved global satellite precipitation estimates for a period of more than 20 years. This presentation summarizes background on retrievals, the IMERG algorithm, and access to the data. As well, it showcases select results from the data, which might give participants ideas about how they can analyze the data themselves. The presentation ends with a prospectus for the timeline for the upcoming Version 08 and provides a list of references.

IMERG↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Explore Information Content Efficiently from Current and Future Hyperspectral Satellite Missions using a Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral remote sensors from current and future missions provide measurements of the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra with high information content. For example, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) have provided more than 20 years radiance measurements with thousands of spectral channels. These measurements will be continued for the next two decades with the same or more advanced hyperspectral sensors. The upcoming missions such as NASA’s CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) and ESA’s TRUTHS will provide unprecedented accurate TOA hyperspectral radiance measurements in solar spectral region. Traditional ways to derive Climate Data Records (CDRs) from these measurements are performing spatial and temporal averages of the retrieved Level-2 products. However, it is a time-consuming process to generate decades of Level-2 data from Level-1 data. Furthermore, the differences in Level-2 algorithms used for different satellite sensors will introduce errors in derived CDRs. In this presentation, we will describe a spectral fingerprinting method to generate high-quality CDRs directly from spatiotemporally averaged Level-1 data. By using consistent radiative kernels which contain the spectral information of various atmospheric and surface CDRs, we can reduce the errors due to algorithm inconsistency. Additionally, the spectral fingerprinting method reduces the time needed to generate CDRs by more than three orders of magnitude. This makes it easy to reprocess CDRs once the Level-1 data from different satellites have been improved via either re-calibrations or inter-satellite calibrations. We will present results of applying spectral fingerprinting method to 20-years of AIRS and CrIS data. The resulting CDRs include: 1) vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and water vapor, 2) cloud properties such as optical depth, effective size, and height, 3) vertical profiles or column amounts for atmospheric trace gases such as O3 and CO, and 4) surface emissivity spectra and skin temperatures. These CDRs will be publicly available at NASA GES DISC in late 2024. The same fingerprinting method is planned to be applied to future CPF and TRUTHS data for solar spectral region.

hyperspectral remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2024

Stellar Occultation Observations to Constrain the Stratosphere of Uranus for Aerocapture

Background on Uranus: Voyager 2 (V2) UV stellar and solar occultations at Uranus detected a warm stratosphere and extremely hot thermosphere [1, 2], far in excess of solar irradiance [3, 4] and internal heating [5, 6]. New theories to explain similar heating at Jupiter [7] and Saturn [8] cannot be tested at Uranus due to a dearth of reliable measurements. In [9, 10], we reprocessed 26 archival Earth-based stellar occultations by Uranus (1977-1996), finding stratospheric temperatures (~200 K) warmer than the original (~100 K), but in stark tension with V2 (~300-500 K). In [10], we built a physics-based, 1-D atmospheric model (see Fig 1) that finds a nearly isothermal stratosphere and a dynamic heat sink in the lower thermosphere. Aerocapture: Aerocapture is spacecraft maneuver that uses a single deep dip to enter orbit. It could decrease cruise time and launch mass for a Uranus mission, but the greatest impediment is uncertain stratospheric densities of Uranus [11]. Aims: 1) Observe and process many high S/N Uranus stellar occultations in the next decade; 2) constrain stratospheric densities for aerocapture; 3) better understand the energy balance; 4) determine stratospheric changes since 1996. Upcoming Occultations: We will present our observing plan for the 2025 April Uranus occultation (K mag 8) and discuss the best-in-a-century 2031 event (K mag 4). We will discuss other events in the early 2030s [12] [13], predicted constraints on density, and simulations of aerocapture for UOP. We will discuss the Shadow Chaser, a small satellite concept for observing occultations from Earth orbit [12]. Conclusions: New stellar occultations can vastly improve profiles of the stratosphere of Uranus; this is critical for understanding energy circulation and constraining densities for using aerocapture on UOP. References: [1] Herbert, F. et al. (1987). JGR. [2] Stevens, M. et al. (1993). Icarus. [3] Marley, M. & McKay, C. (1999). Icarus, [4] Li, C. et al. (2018). JQRST. [5] Pearl, J. et al. (1990). Icarus. [6] Melin, H (2020). Nat Astron. [7] O’Donoghue, J. et al. (2021) Nature. [8] Mueller-Wodarg, I. et al. (2019) GRL. [9] Saunders, W. et al. (2023). PSJ. [10] Saunders, W. et al. (2024). PSJ. [11] Report of the Aerocapture Demonstration Relevance Assessment Team (2023). [12] Saunders, W. et al. (2022). P&SS. [13] French, R. & Souami, D. (2023) PSJ.

William Saunders↗
NASA NTRS2026

Application of Energy-efficient Electromagnetic Melt-Processing for the Upcycling of Recycled Polyphenylene Sulfide into Multifunctional Segregated Nanocomposites

Polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) is widely used in structural and functional composites because of its thermal stability, chemical resistance, and mechanical strength. As circular manufacturing becomes increasingly important, extending the service life of recycled PPS (rPPS) is essential. However, conventional high-temperature reprocessing accelerates thermo-oxidative degradation, reducing recycled composite performance. This study proposes a rapid and potentially energy-saving upcycling strategy for rPPS using electromagnetic (EM) melt-processing to form segregated carbon nanotube (CNT) networks and produce EM-responsive nanocomposites. The aim was to determine whether CNT-assisted EM heating could reduce polymer degradation while improving multifunctional properties at ultralow filler loadings. rPPS micropellets were coated with CNTs by ball milling to create conductive shells, then compacted into green bodies (GBs) and selectively melted by rapid EM irradiation. Structural, electrical, mechanical, rheological, and electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding properties were evaluated. Electrical percolation occurred at an ultralow CNT loading of 0.08 wt%, with conductivity reaching (1.24 ± 0.74) × 10 -5 S⋅m -1 at 0.1 wt%. At this concentration, tensile strength and modulus increased by 72% and 99%, respectively. At ~ 0.7 mm thickness, X-band EMI shielding effectiveness reached 6 dB for GBs and 3 dB after EM processing. This shows that EM melt-processing upcycles rPPS into high-performance multifunctional nanocomposites with minimum thermal degradation.

recycled↗
DOE OSTI2012

Development of a Reliable Fuel Depletion Methodology for the HTR-10 Spent Fuel Analysis

A technical working group formed in 2007 between NNSA and CAEA to develop a reliable fuel depletion method for HTR-10 based on MCNPX and to analyze the isotopic inventory and radiation source terms of the HTR-10 spent fuel. Conclusions of this presentation are: (1) Established a fuel depletion methodology and demonstrated its safeguards application; (2) Proliferation resistant at high discharge burnup ({approx}80 GWD/MtHM) - Unfavorable isotopics, high number of pebbles needed, harder to reprocess pebbles; (3) SF should remain under safeguards comparable to that of LWR; and (4) Diversion scenarios not considered, but can be performed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Stocks and Flows of U and Pu in a World with 3.6 TWe of Nuclear Power

Integrated energy, environment, and economics models project that worldwide electrical energy use will increase to ~12 TWe in 2100 and nuclear power may be required to provide 3.6 TWe at this time. If pulverized coal without carbon sequestration were employed instead, the resulting incremental long-term global temperature rise would be about 2/3 deg C. Calculations are presented of the stocks and flows of uranium and plutonium associated with the scenario where this energy is provided by nuclear power. If only light-water reactors (LWRs) are used, the scenario consumes about 33.4 Mt of mined uranium. Continuing to operate the reactors in place in 2100 through the end of their assumed 60 year lifetime raises this to 59 Mt, 4.7x the NEA/ IAEA Redbook estimate for total discovered + undiscovered uranium. The waste corresponds to about 86x the legally defined capacity of Yucca Mtn. A case is also considered where a transition is begun to fast-spectrum reactors in 2040, both for a “balanced” system of LWRs and transuranic (TRU) burners with conversion ration (CR) = 0.5, and for a system of breeders. In the latter case we find that CR = 1.21 is adequate to replace all LWRs with breeders by 2100, using solely TRU from LWRs to start up the reactors – assuming reprocessed fuel is available for use two years after its removal from the reactor. The stock of plutonium circulating in the fast reactor system in 2100 is comparable to that which would have been buried in the LWR-only case. One year of fueling corresponds to 2,000 – 6,000t of Pu. Fusion energy, if first brought on line in mid-century, could in principle replace fast reactors in this scenario.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

The Effect of Birthrate Granularity on the Release- to- Birth Ratio for the AGR-1 In-core Experiment

The AGR-1 Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) tristructural-isotropic-particle fuel experiment underwent 13 irradiation intervals from December 2006 until November 2009 within the Idaho National Laboratory Advanced Test Reactor in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Power Plant program. During this multi-year experiment, release-to-birth rate ratios were computed at the end of each operating interval to provide information about fuel performance. Fission products released during irradiation were tracked daily by the Fission Product Monitoring System using 8-hour measurements. Birth rates calculated by MCNP with ORIGEN for as-run conditions were computed at the end of each irradiation interval. Each time step in MCNP provided neutron flux, reaction rates and AGR-1 compact composition, which were used to determine birth rates using ORIGEN. The initial birth-rate data, consisting of four values for each irradiation interval at the beginning, end, and two intermediate times, were interpolated to obtain values for each 8-hour activity. The problem with this method is that any daily changes in heat rates or perturbations, such as shim control movement or core/lobe power fluctuations, would not be reflected in the interpolated data and a true picture of the system would not be presented. At the conclusion of the AGR-1 experiment, great efforts were put forth to compute daily birthrates, which were reprocessed with the 8-hour release activity. The results of this study are presented in this paper.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Case for the Application of Worldwide Marine Radioactivity Studies In the Search for Undeclared Facilities and Activities

Undeclared nuclear facilities unequivocally remain the most difficult safeguards challenge facing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Recent cases of undeclared facilities revealed in Iran and Syria, which are NPT signatory States, show both the difficulty and the seriousness of this threat to nonproliferation. In the case of undeclared nuclear facilities, the most effective deterrent against proliferation is the application of Wide-Area Environmental Sampling (WAES); however, WAES is currently cost-prohibitive. As with any threat, the most effective countering strategy is a multifaceted approach. Some of the approaches applied by the IAEA include: open source analysis, satellite imagery, on-site environmental sampling, complementary access under the Additional Protocol (where in force), traditional safeguards inspections, and information provided by member States. These approaches, naturally, are focused on specific States. Are there other opportunities not currently within the IAEA purview to assess States that may provide another opportunity to detect clandestine facilities? In this paper, the author will make the case that the IAEA Department of Safeguards should explore the area of worldwide marine radioactivity studies as one possible opportunity. One such study was released by the IAEA Marine Environment Laboratory in January 2005. This technical document focused on 90Sr, 137Cs, and 239/240Pu. It is clearly a challenging area because of the many sources of anthropogenic radionuclides in the world’s oceans and seas including: nuclear weapons testing, reprocessing, accidents, waste dumping, and industrial and medical radioisotopes, whose distributions change based on oceanographic, geochemical, and biological processes, and their sources. It is additionally challenging where multiple States share oceans, seas, and rivers. But with the application of modern science, historical sampling to establish baselines, and a focus on the most relevant radionuclides, the potential is there to support this challenging IAEA safeguards mission.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗