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NASA NTRS2019

Prognostics As-A-Service: A Scalable Cloud Architecture for Prognostics

Comprehensive aircraft system health-state awareness is critical for maintaining safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabling higher levels of autonomy, and facilitating new forms of aviation. Maintainers, vehicle operators, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, pilots, autonomous systems, and other decision-makers must have reliable real-time knowledge of the vehicle health, the health of its critical composite systems, predictions of how health changes with time, and forecasts of how its capabilities change with health degradation to preserve safety and efficiency. Providing this information in a reliable manner in computationally constrained environments and across a wide range of vehicles and systems continues to be a challenge. This challenge can be partially resolved through cloud computing, where the execution of prognostic and diagnostic algorithms is performed on a network of remote servers hosted on the internet. NASA is developing a cloud computing service, Prognostics As-A-Service (PaaS), that explores the feasibility and challenges of cloud-enhanced prognostics. Though such a system has broad applicability, this research effort is focused on aviation applications.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2017

High-Performance First-Principles Molecular Dynamics for Predictive Theory and Modeling

This project focused on developing high-performance software tools for First-Principles Molecular Dynamics (FPMD) simulations, and applying them in investigations of materials relevant to energy conversion processes. FPMD is an atomistic simulation method that combines a quantum-mechanical description of electronic structure with the statistical description provided by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. This reliance on fundamental principles allows FPMD simulations to provide a consistent description of structural, dynamical and electronic properties of a material. This is particularly useful in systems for which reliable empirical models are lacking. FPMD simulations are increasingly used as a predictive tool for applications such as batteries, solar energy conversion, light-emitting devices, electro-chemical energy conversion devices and other materials. During the course of the project, several new features were developed and added to the open-source Qbox FPMD code. The code was further optimized for scalable operation of large-scale, Leadership-Class DOE computers. When combined with Many-Body Perturbation Theory (MBPT) calculations, this infrastructure was used to investigate structural and electronic properties of liquid water, ice, aqueous solutions, nanoparticles and solid-liquid interfaces. Computing both ionic trajectories and electronic structure in a consistent manner enabled the simulation of several spectroscopic properties, such as Raman spectra, infrared spectra, and sum-frequency generation spectra. The accuracy of the approximations used allowed for direct comparisons of results with experimental data such as optical spectra, X-ray and neutron diffraction spectra. The software infrastructure developed in this project, as applied to various investigations of solids, liquids and interfaces, demonstrates that FPMD simulations can provide a detailed, atomic-scale picture of structural, vibrational and electronic properties of complex systems relevant to energy conversion devices.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of mixed kernels function (MKF) based support vector regression model (SVR) for CO 2 – Reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure prediction

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection into oil reservoirs is considered a mature enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique for conventional reservoirs. The local displacement efficiency of the CO 2 -EOR process is highly dependent on the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), estimating this parameter is critical to design of the CO 2 injection process. Traditional empirical methods to test the CO 2 -oil MMP are time consuming and expensive; derived correlations are fast but not accurate. Therefore, an efficient and reliable method to determine MMP is beneficial. Here in this study, a mixed kernels function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model was developed and used to predict the MMP for both pure and impure CO 2 injection cases. Four parameters were chosen as input parameters: (1) reservoir temperature; (2) average critical temperature; (3) molecular weight of pentane plus (C 5+ ) fraction of crude oil, and; (4) the ratio of volatile components to intermediate components in crude oil. MMP was selected as the desired output parameter to train and test this newly developed model. The performance of basic kernels function based SVR model is compared with that of this newly developed MKF-SVR model. The well-trained MFK-SVR was compared with three well-established published correlations, demonstrated the highest correlation coefficient (R of 0.9381), lowest root mean square error (RMSE of 1.9151), smallest average absolute error (AAE of 1.1406) and maximum absolute error (MAE of 4.6291). We believe that the proposed MFK-SVM model is a more reliable and stable regression model to predict MMP. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the physical correctness. It indicates that the predicted results from the newly developed model are in excellent agreement with previous empirical work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1981

Lessons from NASA

Particular requirements related to the design and the operation of spacecraft have forced NASA to take a reliability approach that differs somewhat from that used in many other applications. NASA has found that some of the traditional tools of reliability engineering, such as life testing, reliability demonstration testing, maintainability analysis, and direct failure analysis, are impractical for spacecraft. In place of a statistical approach, the space agency uses an engineering approach to mission reliability. Reliability is to be obtained with the aid of three different approaches, including the application of effective design principles, the control and screening of all parts, and the testing of the entire spacecraft or its prototype for predicted capabilities. Attention is given to failure-mode analysis, the enhancement of Voyager reliability by autonomous operation, the redundancy in Shuttle design, the weeding out of bad hardware, and the preference for off-the-shelf devices.

Williams, W. C.↗

DOE OSTI2016

PV degradation curves: non‐linearities and failure modes

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) reliability and durability have seen increased interest in recent years. Historically, and as a preliminarily reasonable approximation, linear degradation rates have been used to quantify long‐term module and system performance. The underlying assumption of linearity can be violated at the beginning of the life, as has been well documented, especially for thin‐film technology. Additionally, non‐linearities in the wear‐out phase can have significant economic impact and appear to be linked to different failure modes. In addition, associating specific degradation and failure modes with specific time series behavior will aid in duplicating these degradation modes in accelerated tests and, eventually, in service life prediction. In this paper, we discuss different degradation modes and how some of these may cause approximately linear degradation within the measurement uncertainty (e.g., modules that were mainly affected by encapsulant discoloration) while other degradation modes lead to distinctly non‐linear degradation (e.g., hot spots caused by cracked cells or solder bond failures and corrosion). The various behaviors are summarized with the goal of aiding in predictions of what may be seen in other systems. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Jordan, Dirk C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Reliability Assessment for Marine Renewable Energy Enabled Island Power Systems

Marine renewable energy (MRE) resources are highly predictable and persistent sources of energy, when compared to other renewable sources like wind and solar. These lend them favorably for potential grid applications, particularly for coastal/island power systems where their generation potential is high. Island power systems, on the other hand, are either supported by onsite generation or by transported energy from the mainland grid. Therefore, robustness of grid operations depend heavily on the diversity of onsite generation resources and the reliability of the power transportation medium. Issues relating to either of these two factors may lead to impediments in smooth and reliable operation of the power system. Analyzing and quantifying operational risks for such island power systems with diverse non-conventional generation portfolios through conventional techniques can also prove to be cumbersome, often requiring multiple different inputs. Therefore, in this paper, we firstly present a novel, purely data-driven formulation which quantifies the operational reliability of such island power systems through minimal input data. Specifically, our proposed methodology only relies on historical knowledge of typical hourly load and generation profiles to quantify associated operational risks. Subsequently, we use our proposed formulation to evaluate the effectiveness of MRE resources (over other renewable resources like wind and solar) in providing resilience benefits to island power systems. The proposed formulation is demonstrated with a case study for an island power system in Nantucket, MA.

Chalishazar, Vishvas H.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Enhanced CARES Software Enables Improved Ceramic Life Prediction

The NASA Lewis Research Center has developed award-winning software that enables American industry to establish the reliability and life of brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications. The CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) series of software is successfully used by numerous engineers in industrial, academic, and government organizations as an essential element of the structural design and material selection processes. The latest version of this software, CARES/Life, provides a general- purpose design tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. CARES/Life was recently enhanced by adding new modules designed to improve functionality and user-friendliness. In addition, a beta version of the newly-developed CARES/Creep program (for determining the creep life of monolithic ceramic components) has just been released to selected organizations.

Janosik, Lesley A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew↗

DOE OSTI2024

Latent Pitfalls in Microstructure-Based Modeling for Thermally Aged 9Cr-1Mo-V Steel (Grade 91)

A case study was conducted on a mechanistic model development that predicted tensile strength deterioration with thermal aging of 9Cr-1Mo-V steel in supporting the 60-year design life expected for advanced nuclear reactors. For property prediction beyond practical testing times, mechanistic modeling is highly desired, as it taps into the physics of structure–property relationships and therefore can generate reliable results for extrapolation. Meanwhile, as mechanistic models are often complicated, reflecting the intricacy of microstructure and strengthening mechanisms, pitfalls that are difficult to detect often exist. Here, this paper discusses latent pitfalls that are common in mechanistic modeling or specific in this 9Cr-1Mo-V case development through using the American Society of Mechanical Engineers verification and validation in computational solid mechanics (ASME V&V 10) standard for evaluating credibility of modeling in materials engineering. Suggestions are also made for enhancing reliability of microstructure-based modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interfacial shear modeling and flow predictions for internal film condesation flows

Internal flow of pure vapor experiencing film condesation on the walls of a straight duct is studied. The commonly occuring case of turbulent (or laminar) vapor flow in the core and laminar flow of the liquid condensate-with or without waves on the interface-is emphasized. We propose and implement a new first principle methodolgy which model interfacial shear with the help of reliable experimental data on heat transfer rates. Other details of the flow are predicted with the help of this model. These predictions are shown to be in agreement with relevant experimental data. Correlations for film thickness and heat transfer rates are also given.

Narain, A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inferring the Redshift of More than 150 GRBs with a Machine-learning Ensemble Model

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), due to their high luminosities, are detected up to a redshift of 10, and thus have the potential to be vital cosmological probes of early processes in the Universe. Fulfilling this potential requires a large sample of GRBs with known redshifts, but due to observational limitations, only 11% have known redshifts (z). There have been numerous attempts to estimate redshifts via correlation studies, most of which have led to inaccurate predictions. To overcome this, we estimated GRB redshift via an ensemble-supervised machine-learning (ML) model that uses X-ray afterglows of long-duration GRBs observed by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The estimated redshifts are strongly correlated (a Pearson coefficient of 0.93) and have an rms error, namely, the square root of the average squared error $\langle$Δz 2 $\rangle$, of 0.46 with the observed redshifts showing the reliability of this method. The addition of GRB afterglow parameters improves the predictions considerably by 63% compared to previous results in peer-reviewed literature. Finally, we use our ML model to infer the redshifts of 154 GRBs, which increase the known redshifts of long GRBs with plateaus by 94%, a significant milestone for enhancing GRB population studies that require large samples with redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Physics of Failure (PoF) for Reliability

An item’s reliability or longevity is dependent not only on its design but also on how it is used, manufactured, tested, and the stresses it has or will experience. Stresses include operational and environmental exposures to thermal, voltage, current, age/exposure, mechanical, and radiation mechanisms. Therefore, in reliability analysis, it is important to consider the contributions of all these factors when predicting the failure rates of components. Historically, there has been a reliance on handbook data (e.g., MIL-HDBK-217), but experience has shown that these values and distributions are not representative of actual performance. Therefore, to make more credible reliability and risk assessments for its missions, NASA must transition to estimating likelihoods of failure based on an item’s reliability or longevity factors (or the physical susceptibilities and strengths impacting the design’s performance) has or will experience, whenever possible. To facilitate this transition, a Handbook on Methodology for Physics of Failure Based Reliability Assessments has been developed by NASA to assist in applying physics experiences or experimental physics for empirical analysis and conceptualized physics exposures or theoretical physics for deterministic analysis, to develop and aggregate realistic likelihoods of failure leading to more credible forecasts of item performance and longevity. In addition, since it is NASA’s intention that this document continues to evolve based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies, NASA is encouraging and appreciates the contributions of current and future authors to maintain and enhance this handbook and its supporting case studies.

PoF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1995

Long term microparticle impact fluxes on LDEF determined from optical survey of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) sensors

Many of the IDE metal-oxide-silicon (MOS) capacitor-discharge impact sensors remained active during the entire Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission. An optical survey of impact sites on the active surfaces of these sensors has been extended to include all sensors from the low-flux sides of LDEF (i.e. the west or trailing side, the earth end, and the space end) and 5-7 active sensors from each LDEF's high-flux sides (i.e. the east or leading side, the south side, and the north side). This survey was facilitated by the presence of a relatively large (greater than 50 micron diameter) optical signature associated with each impact site on the active sensor surfaces. Of the approximately 4700 impacts in the optical survey data set, 84% were from particles in the 0.5 to 3 micron size range. An estimate of the total number of hypervelocity impacts on LDEF from particles greater than 0.5 micron diameter yields a value of approximately 7 x 10(exp 6). Impact feature dimensions for several dozen large craters on MOS sensors and germanium witness plates are also presented. Impact fluxes calculated from the IDE survey data closely matched surveys of similar size impacts (greater than or equal to 3 micron diameter craters in Al, or marginal penetrations of a 2.4 micron thick Al foil) by other LDEF investigators. Since the first year IDE data were electronically recorded, the flux data could be divided into three long term time periods: the first year, the entire 5.8 year mission, and the intervening 4.8 years (by difference). The IDE data show that there was an order of magnitude decrease in the long term microparticle impact flux on the trailing side of LDEF, from 1.01 to 0.098 x 10(exp -4) m(exp 2)/s, from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The long term flux on the leading edge showed an increase from 8.6 to 11.2 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s over this same time period. (Short term flux increases up to 10,000 times the background rate were recorded on the leading side during LDEF's first year in orbit.) The overall east/west ratio was 44, but during LDEF's first year in orbit the ratio was 8.5, and during years 2-6 the ratio was 114. Long term microparticle impact fluxes on the space end decreased from 1.12 to 0.55 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The earth end showed the opposite trend with an increase from 0.16 to 0.38 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s. Fluxes on rows 6 and 12 decreased from 6.1 to 3.4 and 6.7 to 3.7 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s, respectively, over the same time periods. This resulted in space/earth microparticle impact flux ratios of 7.1 during the first year and 1.5 during years 2-6, while the south/north, space/north and space/south ratios remained constant at 1.1, 0.16 and 0.17, respectively, during the entire mission. This information indicates the possible identification of long term changes in discrete microparticle orbital debris component contributions to the total impact flux experienced by LDEF. A dramatic decrease in the debris population capable of striking the trailing side was detected that could possibly be attributed to the hiatus of western launch activity experienced from 1986-1989. A significant increase in the debris population that preferentially struck the leading side was also observed and could possibly be attributed to a single breakup event that occurred in September of 1986. A substantial increase in the microparticle debris population that struck the earth end of LDEF, but not the space end, was also detected and could possibly be the result of a single breakup event at low altitude. These results point to the importance of including discrete orbital debris component contribution changes in flux models in order to achieve accurate predictions of the microparticle environment that a particular spacecraft will experience in earth orbit. The only reliable, verified empirical measurements of these changes are reported in this paper. Further time-resolved in-situ measurements of these debris populations are needed to accurately assess model predictions and mitigation practices.

Simon, C. G.↗