A comparison of actual and allocated costs for work accomplished using NASA PERT.
Contractor performance on cost type contracts evaluated by comparing actual and allocated costs, using NASA PERT facilities
COMPUTER METHOD↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Computer/PERT technique monitors actual versus allocated costs
A computer method measures the users performance in cost-type contracts utilizing the existing nasa program evaluation review technique without imposing any additional reporting requirements. progress is measured by comparing actual costs with a value of work performed in a specific period.
Houry, E.↗
Pricing of NASA Space Shuttle transportation system cargo
A two-part pricing policy is investigated as the most feasible method of pricing the transportation services to be provided by NASA's SSTS. Engineering cost estimates and a deterministic operating cost model generate a data base and develop a procedure for pricing the services of the SSTS. It is expected that the SSTS will have a monopoly on space material processing in areas of crystal growth, glass processing, metallurgical space applications, and biomedical processes using electrophoresis which will require efficient pricing. Pricing problems, the SSTS operating costs based on orbit elevation, number of launch sites, and number of flights, capital costs of the SSTS, research and development costs, allocation of joint transportation costs of the SSTS to a particular space processing activity, and rates for the SSTS are discussed. It is concluded that joint costs for commercial cargoes carried in the SSTS can be most usefully handled by making cost allocations based on proportionate capacity utilization.
Hale, C. W.↗
A minimum cost tolerance allocation method for rocket engines and robust rocket engine design
Rocket engine design follows three phases: systems design, parameter design, and tolerance design. Systems design and parameter design are most effectively conducted in a concurrent engineering (CE) environment that utilize methods such as Quality Function Deployment and Taguchi methods. However, tolerance allocation remains an art driven by experience, handbooks, and rules of thumb. It was desirable to develop and optimization approach to tolerancing. The case study engine was the STME gas generator cycle. The design of the major components had been completed and the functional relationship between the component tolerances and system performance had been computed using the Generic Power Balance model. The system performance nominals (thrust, MR, and Isp) and tolerances were already specified, as were an initial set of component tolerances. However, the question was whether there existed an optimal combination of tolerances that would result in the minimum cost without any degradation in system performance.
Gerth, Richard J.↗
Encapsulation task of the low-cost silicon solar array project. Investigation of test methods, material properties, and processes for solar cell encapsulants
The results of an investigation of solar module encapsulation systems applicable to the Low-Cost Solar Array Project 1986 cost and performance goals are presented. Six basic construction elements were identified and their specific uses in module construction defined. A uniform coating basis was established for each element. The survey results were also useful in revealing price ranges for classes of materials and estimating the cost allocation for each element within the encapsulating cost goal. The six construction elements were considered to be substrates, superstrates, pottants, adhesives, outer covers and back covers.
Willis, P. B.↗
Failure Rate Computations Based on Mariner Mars 1964 Spacecraft Data
Mariner Mars 1964 failure rates computed for use in reliability predictions and cost allocations
MARS SPACECRAFT↗
Review of a Draft - Avoiding the Impossible: Re-focusing a Non-Feasible Mission 2-Hrs into a 3-Day Engineering Session
Concurrent engineering offers a great many benefits to engineers and mission designers throughout the world of aerospace. The only downside of concurrent engineering, and this is somewhat unavoidable, is that you don’t know the results of a design session until the end when it is completed. Usually, this is not a problem – you wouldn’t start building a spacecraft before the design is finished. However, within mass and cost constrained systems, you may end up with a final design that although technically sound – is not feasible due to mass or cost limits. Employing in-session mass and cost models with flexible inputs that refine their estimates and variance as more detailed information comes in throughout a design session allows major design changes to be made when the probability of breaching a mass or cost cap exceeds a threshold level. This enables mission designers to re-focus the study, and avoid spending 3-days with 15 engineers designing a non-feasible mission. By understanding key correlations and nested relationships within mass or cost, and specifically mass or cost allocations per mission element by mission type, it’s possible to get flexible-input, statistically based mass and cost estimates very early in the design process. Baseline models are seeded using mission characteristics and general parameters (outer planetary orbiter-probe mission, $500M cost cap for example) to provide a rough estimate of the expected mass or cost. As information gets solidified during the session, it gets added to the model and the estimates are updated. Continuing the orbiter-probe mission example, modeling probe heat shield cost as a percent of total probe cost, and probe cost as a percent of total flight system cost, and total flight system cost as a percent of total mission cost allows a design team to roll-up solidified information to estimate the probability of fitting within a mass or cost constraint early in a concurrent design session. When only the heat shield cost is known, the variance of the final estimate is higher, whereas when the full probe gets defined, naturally, the variance of the estimate decreases. A methodology, model, verification and demo implementation for cost limit breach are presented.
Hihn, Jairus M.↗
Rapid, Comprehensive, Mission Architecting at the Jet Propolusion Laboratory
One of the first multi-disciplinary optimization challenges a mission concept faces is finding an initial system level architecture that simultaneously satisfies the constraints of cost, the requirements of science, and the capabilities of engineering. Compounding this challenge, especially in the early formulation of an architecture, is communicating amongst all key stakeholders, in this multidimensional space of constraints and requirements, where the current architecture is not yet adequately defined, or if it is defined, where it is broken. Recently, a factor of two improvement in the speed of development of the engineering architecture, while also comprehensively considering scientific performance and cost, has been achieved through a single screen visualization dashboard (“S-Chart”), a cost allocation tool, segment level analogy databases and parametric relationships for segment technical capabilities and their technical (Size, Weight, Power, and Data) and financial (Cost) capabilities and/or accommodation requirements.
Nash, Alfred E.↗
Bayesian Rules of Thumb: Robust Uncertainty Quantification in Early Project Cost Estimation
Systems engineers often make use of cost Rules ofThumb in order to estimate cost during early phases of projectformulation. These Rules of Thumb typically take the form ofa sequence of percentages over which a total cost is allocatedacross NASA WBS elements. Rules of Thumb can then be usedto extrapolate cost from one or more known WBS elements tothe remaining unknown WBS elements, assisting early projectformulation architecture studies (such as those in JPL’s Team Xand A Team).A number of issues can arise when generating and using costRules of Thumb. For example, many records of project costsconsist of incomplete data. Typical methods of dealing withincomplete cost allocation data include (a) ignoring missionswith incomplete data, or (b) taking averages of the non-zero percentagesacross missions, but both of these methods can result inbiased estimates if the existence of incomplete data correlateswith total mission cost or any particular WBS element. Anothercommon example is cost reported in one or more incorrect WBSelements. This is especially prevalent in smaller missions whereit is more common for engineers to perform tasks that fall underthe purview of multiple WBS elements.Furthermore, a Rule of Thumb estimate is typically reported asa point estimate; there is no reported uncertainty around thepercentages used to generate an allocation. Even in the rarecase in which confidence intervals around mean percentages areprovided, there may be positive or negative correlations betweenWBS elements which can skew estimates.Here we attempt to address these problems by formulatingprobabilistic Rules of Thumb in which a distribution of allocationschemes, rather than a single allocation scheme, is generated.We use a bootstrap imputation method to simultaneouslyaccount for uncertainty in the missing data while using allavailable information contained in the dataset. The imputeddatasets are then input into a multivariate Bayesian modelwhich accounts for correlations between WBS elements andproperly accounts for uncertainty in the final Rule of Thumbpercentages and predictions. We describe the mathematicalmodel and provides snippets of R code utilizing the brms(Bayesian Regression Models using Stan) package. To illustratethis model, we generate a Bayesian Level 2 WBS Cost Rule ofThumb for MIDEX (Medium-Class Explorers) missions withdata extracted from NASA’s CADRe. We then compare thismethod’s performance with the classical Rule of Thumb method.
Hooke, Melissa A↗
Adaptive function allocation reduces performance costs of static automation
Adaptive automation offers the option of flexible function allocation between the pilot and on-board computer systems. One of the important claims for the superiority of adaptive over static automation is that such systems do not suffer from some of the drawbacks associated with conventional function allocation. Several experiments designed to test this claim are reported in this article. The efficacy of adaptive function allocation was examined using a laboratory flight-simulation task involving multiple functions of tracking, fuel-management, and systems monitoring. The results show that monitoring inefficiency represents one of the performance costs of static automation. Adaptive function allocation can reduce the performance cost associated with long-term static automation.
Parasuraman, Raja↗
Investigation of test methods, material properties, and processes for solar cell encapsulants
Photovoltaic (PV) modules consist of a string of electrically interconnected silicon solar cells capable of producing practical quantities of electrical power when exposed to sunlight. To insure high reliability and long term performance, the functional components of the solar cell module must be adequately protected from the environment by some encapsulation technique. The encapsulation system must provide mechanical support for the cells and corrosion protection for the electrical components. The goal of the program is to identify and develop encapsulation systems consistent with the PV module operating requirements of 30 year life and a target cost of $0.70 per peak watt ($70 per square meter) (1980 dollars). Assuming a module efficiency of ten percent, which is equivalent to a power output of 100 watts per square meter in midday sunlight, the capital cost of the modules may be calculated to be $70.00 per square meter. Out of this cost goal, only 20 percent is available for encapsulation due to the high cost of the cells, interconnects, and other related components. The encapsulation cost allocation may then be stated as $14.00 per square meter, included all coatings, pottant and mechanical supports for the cells.
Source record↗
Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 5: Process development
The goal of the Process Development Area, as part of the Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project, was to develop and demonstrate solar cell fabrication and module assembly process technologies required to meet the cost, lifetime, production capacity, and performance goals of the FSA Project. R&D efforts expended by Government, Industry, and Universities in developing processes capable of meeting the projects goals during volume production conditions are summarized. The cost goals allocated for processing were demonstrated by small volume quantities that were extrapolated by cost analysis to large volume production. To provide proper focus and coverage of the process development effort, four separate technology sections are discussed: surface preparation, junction formation, metallization, and module assembly.
Gallagher, B.↗
Team X Report #1401: Exoplanet Coronagraph STDT Study 2013-06
This document is intended to stimulate discussion of the topic described. All technical and cost analyses are preliminary. This document is not a commitment to work, but is a precursor to a formal proposal if it generates sufficient mutual interest. The data contained in this document may not be modified in any way. Cost estimates described or summarized in this document were generated as part of a preliminary, first-order cost class identification as part of an early trade space study, are based on JPL-internal parametric cost modeling, assume a JPL in-house build, and do not constitute a commitment on the part of JPL or Caltech. JPL and Team X add cost reserves for development and operations. Unadjusted estimate totals and cost reserve allocations would be revised as needed in future more-detailed studies as appropriate for the specific cost-risks for a given mission concept.
cost estimating↗
The Recent Large Reduction in Space Launch Cost
The development of commercial launch systems has substantially reduced the cost of space launch. NASA’s space shuttle had a cost of about $1.5 billion to launch 27,500 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), $54,500/kg. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 now advertises a cost of $62 million to launch 22,800 kg to LEO, $2,720/kg. Commercial launch has reduced the cost to LEO by a factor of 20. This will have a substantial impact on the space industry, military space, and NASA. Existing launch providers are reducing their costs and so are satellite developers. The military foresees an opportunity to rapidly replace compromised space assets that provided communications, weather, surveillance, and positioning. NASA supported the development of commercial space launch and NASA science anticipates lower cost missions, but human space flight planning seems unreactive. Specifically, it has been claimed that commercial spaceflight has not reduced the cost to provide cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). The key factor is that the space shuttle can provide cargo and crew to ISS while the Falcon 9 must also use the Dragon capsule, which adds cost and reduces payload. The cost of a Falcon 9 and Dragon capsule mission to ISS is about $140 million with a payload of 6,000 kg, $23,300/kg. The shuttle payload to ISS is less than to LEO, 16,050 kg, so its cost is also higher at $93,400/kg. The launch cost to ISS has been reduced by a factor of 4. Calculations that show commercial launch provides no cost reduction to ISS assume half the usually cited shuttle cost and allocate it to the actual delivered payload, about half the full capacity. In a split mission, with crew and pressurized cargo launched separately from hardware and materials, the higher Falcon 9 plus Dragon costs would apply only to a fraction of the launch mass. A 4 to 1 cost reduction saves most, 75%, of the total cost. A further reduction to 10 or 20 to 1 saves 90 or 95%, but this is only a small, 15 or 20%, portion of the original cost. The recently reduced space launch cost can be expected to substantially impact human space flight.
Jones, Harry W.↗
Updated System-Availability and Resource-Allocation Program
A second version of the Availability, Cost and Resource Allocation (ACARA) computer program has become available. The first version was reported in an earlier tech brief. To recapitulate: ACARA analyzes the availability, mean-time-between-failures of components, life-cycle costs, and scheduling of resources of a complex system of equipment. ACARA uses a statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate the failure and repair of components while complying with user-specified constraints on spare parts and resources. ACARA evaluates the performance of the system on the basis of a mathematical model developed from a block-diagram representation. The previous version utilized the MS-DOS operating system and could not be run by use of the most recent versions of the Windows operating system. The current version incorporates the algorithms of the previous version but is compatible with Windows and utilizes menus and a file-management approach typical of Windows-based software.
Viterna, Larry↗
Mapping a recent forest fire with ERTS-1 MSS data
Accurate fire boundary delineation provides essential information to forest managers in allocating suppression costs and planning regeneration efforts. The objective of this study was to test the capability of computer-aided analysis of ERTS-1 MSS data to accurately define the boundary of a recent forest fire and to discriminate spectral classes within the perimeter. Two frames of ERTS-1 MSS data were selected for analysis of the Moccasin Mesa Fire in Mesa Verde National Park. Data sets were collected one-half growing season and one full growing season after the fire. Results indicate that computer-aided analysis of ERTS-1 MSS data has the capability for accurately delineating fire boundaries and determining acreage of the burned area. Distinct spectral classes may also be defined within the fire perimeter.
Hitchcock, H. C.↗
Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate
The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.
Source record↗
An Earth Entry Vehicle For Returning Samples From Mars
The driving requirement for design of a Mars Sample return mission is assuring containment of the returned samples. The impact of this requirement on developmental costs, mass allocation, and design approach of the Earth Entry Vehicle is significant. A simple Earth entry vehicle is described which can meet these requirements and safely transport the Mars Sample Return mission's sample through the Earth's atmosphere to a recoverable location on the surface. Detailed analysis and test are combined with probabilistic risk assessment to design this entirely passive concept that circumvents the potential failure modes of a parachute terminal descent system. The design also possesses features that mitigate other risks during the entry, descent, landing and recovery phases. The results of a full-scale drop test are summarized.
Mitcheltree, R.↗