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Scale related loss accounts for approx. 0.25% of global GDP, that is ca. USD 200 billion•Majority of loss comes from petroleum upstream: -Delayed production; -Non-production time (crew cost/equipment rental); -Chemical cost; corrosion
Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is an in-space propulsion technology capable of both high specific impulse (850–1000 s) and thrust (44–1112 kN), which can help reduce trip times for crewed missions beyond low Earth orbit. NTP technology has been demonstrated during historic programs. Over 20 ground test reactor experiments were performed, which demonstrated the prototypic reactor operations, during the Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (NERVA)/Rover program (1955–1972). Although historical programs have shown that NTP is a viable in-space propulsion technology, developing NTP in modern programs is contingent on the development and qualification of ultrahigh-temperature nuclear fuel technologies that can withstand engine operating conditions. In historical NTP development programs such as NERVA/Rover, prototypic reactor/engine schemes were ground tested to assess the overall system feasibility and to qualify the reactor fuel forms for eventual flight systems. Although this approach is effective to verify fuel performance under prototypic conditions, relying solely on full-scale NTP reactor tests as the pathway for verifying or qualifying fuel is inefficient and cost prohibitive today. Additionally, modern nuclear licensing requirements state that before test reactor approval, reactor components and fuel elements should be qualified via non-nuclear (out-of-pile) and nuclear (in-pile) testing under representative operating conditions. Using this methodology, fuel matures as production scale fabrication methods are established, and as produced fuel performance is demonstrated. Here, this paper provides an overview of historical approaches to NTP fuel performance maturation, including fuel screening and qualification needs, and provides insight for establishing an efficient testing paradigm that can be implemented to rapidly and affordably develop NTP fuel forms for eventual qualification.
Every 18 or 24 months nuclear power plants (depending on plant configuration, pressurized or boiling water reactor respectively) undergo a period of outage where the plant is taken offline and a large number of maintenance and surveillance activities (that cannot be performed while plant is running) are performed in typically 2–3 weeks. Planning of a plant outage is very challenging since all the activities are required to be performed in the shortest amount of time given available resources (typically contractor crews hired for the duration of the outage). Consequently, plant outages can be costly due the actual loss of power generation and crew costs and, because of it, there is a need to maximize resource usage in the outage planning phase and reduce the risk of outage delays. This paper is addressing these needs by providing a set of analytical methods designed to analyze plant outage schedule and identify critical elements based on available resources (time and crews). These methods are based on natural language processing and optimization algorithms. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: one that focuses on the time resource and how variability in the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays, and one that minimizes the risk of outage delays by integrating available resources to assess when daily activities should be performed.
Refueling outages of nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considered one of the most critical phases throughout the plant lifetime. In such instances, tens of thousands of activities (e.g., maintenance, surveillance) are performed in a short amount of time (typically 2-3 weeks unless major backfitting or modernization projects are carried out) by a large number of crews (e.g., electricians, mechanics) that are hired as contractors. As a consequence, a plant outage can be expensive not only in terms of costs (e.g., contractor labor, material), but also in terms of loss generation since the plant is taken off the grid during the full outage duration (an indicative metric is about 1.2M$/day of loss of revenue). Thus, there is a continuous need to decrease the economic impact of outages on plant finances. This can be done by: decreasing the frequency of plant outages (e.g., from 18 to 24 months), reducing the time to complete the outage, and reducing the risk of outage delays. The Optimization of Outage Activities project under the Risk Informed Systems Analysis Pathway (RISA) sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program focuses on developing tools and methods to support NPPs with outage schedule optimization. The developed tools and methods are designed to analyze plant outage schedule with the goal of identify critical elements in the schedule that might pose a high risk of delays. These methods and tools can be considered resource-centric in the sense that they address outage challenges as a resource optimization problem. In this context, resources are either time and crews; outage delays occurs when either (or both) resources are insufficient to complete the set of tasks assigned at a specific time instant of the outage. This report provides details on how plant resources (time and crews) can be allocated in such a way that delays are minimized. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: the first one focuses on the time resource and how variability of the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays. The second one integrates available resources to assess when dailies activities should be performed such that the risk of outage delays are minimized.
The data file includes field observations of residential roofing integrated photovoltaics installation that happened between July 2021 and June 2022 in California. There are 21 observations - 2 in the re-roofing category and 19 in the new construction category. The file includes two time and motion forms (Re-Roofing & New Construction) we used to capture the time it takes for each activity in the rooftop solar and electrical installation process. You will see the duration for detailed steps along with activities that are included for total installation time for the paper. There are three parts to the time and motion form - Part 1 has project and crew characteristics, product information, and inspection and permitting data and can be filled before the installation. Part 2 has the actual installation time stamps and related notes. Part 3 has the crew information and can be filled on-site or off-site, but this section is optional. The re-roofing form has pre-solar activities and gutters and vents section in Part 2 of the form, whereas new construction form includes a section for capturing the time it took for rough wiring. The re-roofing form does not include rough wiring but instead includes the final electrical wiring process. These are the key differences in both the forms. Each day/step/installation activity needs to include the crew break time as they happen and there is space available to capture the crew breaks duration. In Table 1 below, the different terms used in the time and motion form are defined and their corresponding unit of measurement stated. We also highlight the optional sections. The data is captured in total mins, total hours, person mins, person hours. You can use this form or make edits to the form to recreate the study or make your own observations. The data herein was reviewed but may not be comprehensive. NREL invites questions and inputs to improve the data, including to: Correct erroneous information Fill in missing/updated information Clarifications on data and variables Updated information may be submitted to Sushmita Jena at sushmita.jena@nlr.gov.
The purpose of the RePOWERD project is to develop a probabilistic and a simulation based power restoration forecasting model for tropical storms based on geographic utility service areas, impacts to energy infrastructures and transportation networks, time-varying customer outage number, crew information (i.e., crew size, crew staging requirements), and utility restoration plans. Energy infrastructure is a critical lifeline essential for the United States’ national and economic security. Like other critical infrastructures, this infrastructure is aging and is at a high risk of damages from extreme weather events. Based on the number of reported outages in EAGLE-I during 2020 and 2021, it is evident that the current energy infrastructure is not equipped to handle extreme event impacts and will contribute to significant outages. From a resilience perspective, it is essential to forecast restoration time in the event of a severe weather induced power outage to assist the US Department of Energy, emergency managers, and first responders with resource planning. This project contributes to this crucial need. This report details the models, that were developed in this pilot study, to determine the rate of restoration and estimated time of restoration (ETR) during tropical storm events within counties and utility service areas based on damage to energy infrastructures and total number of customers experiencing outages.
As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.
Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.
Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems hold promise in reducing transit times for exploration of the solar system by both crewed and uncrewed missions. NTP systems currently under investigation include a once-through high-temperature gas-cooled fission reactor to provide thermal energy to heat the coolant, which also serves as the propellant. The fuel system consists of angular UN fuel particles dispersed in a matrix of W/Re, creating a ceramic and metallic composite or cermet, which has been irradiated in Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). This enabled evaluation of these materials under representative nuclear heating rates (~95 K/s) and peak surface temperatures (~2527 K). Further, these surface conditions were indicative of achievement of the target peak internal temperature of approximately 2850 K. These tests named Sirius-1 (UN–W/Re), have been irradiated and this paper will present post-irradiation examination results. The Sirius-1 test produced minor, stable cracks in the fuel specimen and spalling of surface material. Volatilized uranium ‘soot’ was found deposited on the inner wall of the irradiation capsule indicating loss of some fissile material from the fuel specimen. Spalling from the surfaces was also noted upon visual inspection. Uranium diffusion from the fuel particles resulted in the formation of U/Re phases and the production of a laminar microstructure on the edge of the fuel system. Overall, the specimen was stable and remained within a coolable geometry upon conclusion of multiple thermal cycles to prototypical operating temperatures.
Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems hold promise in reducing transit times for exploration of the solar system by both crewed and uncrewed missions. NTP systems currently under investigation include a once-through high temperature gas-cooled fission reactor to provide thermal energy to heat the coolant which also serves as the propellant. The fuel systems of angular UN fuel particles dispersed in a matrix of W/Re, creating a ceramic and metallic composite or cermet, has been irradiated in Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) enabling evaluation of these materials under representative nuclear heating rates (~95 K/s) and peak temperatures (~2527 K). These tests named Sirius-1 (UN-W/Re), have been irradiated and this paper will present post-irradiation examination results. The Sirius-1 test produced cracks in the fuel specimen and spalling of surface material. Uranium soot was found on the inner wall of the irradiation capsule indicating loss of some fissile material from the fuel specimen. Spalling from the surfaces was also noted upon visual inspection. Uranium diffusion from the fuel particles resulted in the formation of U/Re phases and edge features producing a laminar microstructure.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has set the goal of a manned mission to Mars by the year 2030 [1] and charged the national academy of sci- ences "to identify primary technical and programmatic chal- lenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission" [2]. One relevant technology, nuclear thermal propul- sion (NTP), has notable advantages over traditional chemical rockets; most important among them is the ability to produce larger specific impulse on the order of 900s. The reduction of mission time is crucial for a manned mission to Mars to reduce the risk for the crew. Due to its higher specific impulse, NTP satisfies this need and is pursued as one technology to get humans to Mars [3, 4]. The construction of an NTP sys- tem has to negotiate several challenges laid out in Ref. [2]; one of these challenges is the need to startup the NTP sys- tem from essentially cold conditions to full power within one minute. This paper focuses on studying the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics behavior of a simplified NTP model dur- ing prescribed reactivity insertions and mass flow rate (MFR) ramps. It is the goal of this paper to investigate startup, peak material temperatures, and average specific impulse for a low enriched Uranium (LEU), ceramic and metal material (CER- MET) NTP system when varying reactivity insertion and MFR ramps.
Hydra is an extensible framework for training and managing AI for near real time monitoring that aims to replace the tedious and repetitive data quality monitoring activities the shift crew and online monitoring coordinator typically perform. It continuously scans incoming data in the form of monitoring plots for signs of problems, flagging them for human review. A web app was developed such that experts can efficiently label images for training. Labels are stored in a database for use in training and model validation. Backed up by a comprehensive database, it utilizes an additional web based front-end for viewing the current monitoring status from anywhere in the world. The system has been in production use for the GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab for more than 2 years with new features still under active development.
Hydra: Computer Vision for Data Quality Monitoring Mar 13, 2024, 4:15 PM 30m Charles B. Wang Center, Stony Brook University Poster Track 1: Computing Technology for Physics Research Poster session with coffee break Speaker Ayan Roy Description Hydra is an extensible framework for training, managing, and deploying machine learning models for near real-time data quality monitoring. It is designed to take some of the burden off of shift crews by providing ‘round-the-clock’ monitoring of plots representing the data being collected. The Hydra system is backed by a database which is leveraged for near push button training and is primarily controlled and viewed through a set of web interfaces. This web interface contains a simple-to-use web based GUI for labeling of the datasets used in training; making it possible to label thousands of images quickly and efficiently. To aid in the analysis of Hydra inferences gradCAM, a method of interpretability, is performed and overlaid on the target image, highlighting regions of interest, making diagnosis of problems much faster. Development began in 2019 for the GlueX Experiment in Hall-D, the Hydra system has grown to encompass all of the experimental halls at Jefferson Laboratory. This talk will focus on the features of Hydra as well as provide details of the challenges present with deploying to disparate experimental halls. With a roadmap of development established, Hydra aims to continue to grow in richness of feature set and expand to encompass other monitoring tasks in differing communities.
This paper proposes a distribution system restoration model which is in response to multiple outages caused by natural disasters. The proposed restoration model includes the coordination of routing repair crews (RRCs), mobile batterycarried vehicles (MBCVs), and networked microgrids (NMGs) formed by soft open points (SOPs). The travel and repair time constraints are modeled for each RRC; travel path and charging strategy are modeled for each MBCV; and the network reconfiguration is developed considering the optimal operation of SOP-based NMGs. Furthermore, the proposed model is presented as a mixedinteger linear program which is solved by an auxiliary induce function based algorithm to reduce the computational complexity. The modified IEEE 33-bus and 69-bus distribution systems are tested with multiple outages. The presented results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model
The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) 2.0 models a feedstock supply shed's harvest and transport process to estimate the cost of delivered feedstock. The model sets up a supply shed of fields, harvests the fields using a series of sequential harvest operations with different crew types, and transports the harvested feedstock to a storage facility or refinery. The model reports many metrics; the most important ones include the crew resources required for harvest and transport operations, equipment utilization, fuel usage, amount of dry mass harvested, the cost for each operation, and the expected time to complete the harvest with the provided resources. IBSAL 2.0 is a complete redesign around the ExtendSim database, and it is faster and easier to reapply the model to different feedstocks.
The International Space Station (ISS) is a complex built environment physically isolated from Earth. Assessing the interplay between the microbial community of the ISS and its crew is important for preventing biomedical and structural complications for long term human spaceflight missions. In this study, we describe one crewmember’s microbial profile from body swabs of mouth, nose, ear, skin and saliva that were collected at eight different time points pre-, during and post-flight. Additionally, environmental surface samples from eight different habitable locations in the ISS were collected from two flights. Environmental samples from one flight were collected by the crewmember and samples from the next flight were collected after the crewmember departed. The microbial composition in both environment and crewmember samples was measured using shotgun metagenomic sequencing and processed using the Livermore Metagenomics Analysis Toolkit. Ordination of sample to sample distances showed that of the eight crew body sites analyzed, skin, nostril, and ear samples are more similar in microbial composition to the ISS surfaces than mouth and saliva samples; and that the microbial composition of the crewmember’s skin samples are more closely related to the ISS surface samples collected by the crewmember on the same flight than ISS surface samples collected by other crewmembers on different flights. In these collections, species alpha diversity in saliva samples appears to decrease during flight and rebound after returning to Earth. This is the first study to compare the ISS microbiome to a crewmember’s microbiome via shotgun metagenomic sequencing. We observed that the microbiome of the surfaces inside the ISS resemble those of the crew’s skin. These data support future crew and ISS microbial surveillance efforts and the design of preventive measures to maintain crew habitat onboard spacecraft destined for long term space travel.
Beginning in 1943, Project Y – the code name for Los Alamos during World War II – transformed the isolated Pajarito Plateau. The sounds of construction equipment replaced the voices of the Los Alamos Ranch School boys and local homesteaders. Construction crews hurriedly built many structures on mesa tops and in the canyons of Los Alamos. Countless concerns flooded Manhattan Project staff, but designing structures to withstand the test of time was not one of them. The top-secret race to develop an atomic bomb before Nazi Germany was on and everyone felt the pressure. Over the next 75 years, some of the structures slumped into disrepair from exposure to the harsh northern New Mexico environment - concrete cracking and spalling, wood frames rotting. That’s where Los Alamos National Laboratory’s historic preservation team enters the Manhattan Project story.
BEACONS aims to demonstrate autonomous deployment of a shipborne system that routinely observes atmospheric, cloud, and aerosol properties. These observations enable scientists to study aerosol-cloud interactions, advancing energy resilience and the Department of Energy's mission to improve model prediction. Key Project Outcomes Autonomous deployment of aerosol and cloud measurement systems aboard a Pasha Hawaii Marjorie C commercial ship. Six-month campaign for continuous, high-resolution aerosol and cloud data collection with minimal crew intervention. Development and testing of instruments in two phases, advancing from essential to complex systems. AI-ready processed data on the BEACONS Data Platform for near-real-time data access. Validation of aerosol-cloud interaction hypotheses for improved modeling. Establishment of best practices for instrument deployment in marine environments. Scientific collaboration to support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) mission.