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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Humans to Mars Will Cost About "Half a Trillion Dollars" and Life Support Roughly Two Billion Dollars

A recent estimate of the cost of the first human mission to Mars suggests that it could cost half a trillion dollars. This estimate is consistent with most past estimates. A similar cost number can easily be derived using mass-cost estimating factors based on the International Space Station (ISS) and other experience. Using the same cost factors and life cycle cost estimating approach, the cost of the life support for the Mars mission could be two billion dollars or more. The cost to go to Mars is expected to be two or three times that of either Apollo, space shuttle, or ISS and could be as much as all three together.

Jones, Harry W.↗

Suburb-to-suburb intercity travel: Energy, time and dollar expenditures

The effect of adding suburb to terminal and terminal to suburb travel is examined. The energy consumed in entire trips was estimated. The total energy costs are compared with total travel times, and dollar costs to the traveler. Trips between origins in seven suburbs of Newark, New Jersey and destinations in two Washington, D. C. suburbs are analyzed.

Fels, M. F.↗

Performance as Promised: How the Chandra X-ray Observatory Accomplished One of Nasa's Most Challenging Missions for Billions of Dollars Less than Originally Planned

As the nation looks toward bold new ventures in space, the Chandra X-ray Observatory program offers an example of how billion-dollar missions can be successfully developed within tightening fiscal constraints. Chandra experienced many of challenges facing bold space programs (state-of-the-art technical requirements and budget-induced slips and restructurings), and yet the Chandra team achieved nearly all the originally envisioned performance for dramatically lower cost. This was accomplished by a combination of team- work, systems engineering, advanced technology insertion, and effective approaches for program implementation. A thorough tradeoff of science utility vs. cost led to the selection of a highly elliptical orbit with uncrewed robotic delivery, deployment, and maintenance. Progressive, focused technology demonstrations were accomplished prior to commitment of major resources to critical elements of the system design, such as the high resolution mirror assembly (HRMA). Pathfinder hardware was developed to reduce risks. A variety of schedule risk reduction measures were implemented and resulted in the X-ray calibration taking place exactly within five days of its originally planned date after after five years of development. The team worked together in an effective manner to contain requirements creep. reductions such as the ACIS-2 chip device. It is estimated that the above combination of measures achieved the avoidance of over $4B in costs, while enabling a highly successful mission.

Davidson, Greg↗

Winglets Save Billions of Dollars in Fuel Costs

The upturned ends now featured on many airplane wings are saving airlines billions of dollars in fuel costs. Called winglets, the drag-reducing technology was advanced through the research of Langley Research Center engineer Richard Whitcomb and through flight tests conducted at Dryden Flight Research Center. Seattle-based Aviation Partners Boeing -- a partnership between Aviation Partners Inc., of Seattle, and The Boeing Company, of Chicago -- manufactures Blended Winglets, a unique design featured on Boeing aircraft around the world. These winglets have saved more than 2 billion gallons of jet fuel to date, representing a cost savings of more than $4 billion and a reduction of almost 21.5 million tons in carbon dioxide emissions.

Source record↗

Vannevar Bush 2: Science for the 21st Century. Why Should Federal Dollars be Spent to Support Scientific Research?

On July 5, 1945, Dr. Vannevar Bush delivered a report to President Truman known as 'Science: The Endless Frontier'. In the report, Dr. Bush stated that 'scientific progress is one essential key to our security as a nation, to our better health, to more jobs, to a higher standard of living, and to our cultural progress'. Bush addressed job creation, the independence of basic research, the ties between research and application, and the nations's need for new talent. In 1995, there are strong similarities between the issues addressed in the Congress, Administration, and the public and those following World War 2. Federal funds and research funding are under severe pressure, including that from fiscal constraints in the federal budget due to the large and growing deficit and the escalating cost of health care. Defense conversion is addressed in the Congress and in industry, where many jobs are at stake. Conversion of the national laboratories, particularly nuclear weapons laboratories, has been a subject of a governmental commission and is the subject of draft legislation. Health care costs and the appropriate role of the federal government in funding basic and applied research has become a major topic of debate. Discussion on education in science has grown from the issue of how to produce more Ph.D.'s to how to improve the understanding of technology and science among the general public.

Miller, Kate↗

Multimillion Dollar Construction Project Completed in Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel

Over the last year, the Glenn Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) underwent a major $5.2 million rehabilitation project as part of the Construction of Facilities program. The scope of the project included redesign and replacement of the 55-yr-old heat exchanger, the addition of fan outlet guide vanes for flow conditioning downstream of the 25-ft-diameter fan, and redesign and replacement of the C and D corner-turning vanes. The purpose of the rehabilitation was to replace old portions of the infrastructure and to improve the aerodynamic flow quality in the tunnel.

Kevdzija, Susan L.↗

Costs and benefits to industry of online literature searches

A description is given of a client survey conducted by the NASA Industrial Application Center, U.S.C., examining user-identified dollar costs and benefits of an online computerized literature search. Telephone interviews were conducted on a random sample of clients using a Denver Research Institute questionnaire. Of the total 159 clients surveyed, over 53% identified dollar benefits. A direct relationship between client dollars invested and benefits derived from the search was shown. The ratio of dollar benefit to investment dollar averaged 2.9 to 1. Precise data on the end user's evaluation of the dollar value of an information search are presented.

Jensen, R. J.↗

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗

Process Feasibility Study in Support of Silicon Material Task 1

Analysis of process system properties was continued for silicon source materials under consideration for producing silicon. The following property data are reported for dichlorosilane which is involved in processing operations for silicon: critical constants, vapor pressure, heat of vaporization, heat capacity, density, surface tension, thermal conductivity, heat of formation and Gibb's free energy of formation. The properties are reported as a function of temperature to permit rapid engineering usage. The preliminary economic analysis of the process is described. Cost analysis results for the process (case A-two deposition reactors and six electrolysis cells) are presented based on a preliminary process design of a plant to produce 1,000 metric tons/year of silicon. Fixed capital investment estimate for the plant is $12.47 million (1975 dollars) ($17.47 million, 1980 dollars). Product cost without profit is 8.63 $/kg of silicon (1975 dollars)(12.1 $/kg, 1980 dollars).

Li, K. Y.↗

Composite engine duct fabrication

The trimonomer polyimide resin reinforced with graphite fibers, PMR15, is lower in weight (by 20 percent) and less expensive than titanium. The duct walls are of solid laminate and are made of woven T300 graphite cloth. The original concept for the duct involved a solid shell of T300/PMR15 made up of seven plies of cloth tapered to eleven plies at each end. The bosses and built-up areas around the cutouts are also of T300/PMR15. The end flages riveted to the shell, however, are of titanium. A buckling test demonstrated the ability of the composite analytical design techniques employed to predict the buckling strength of the composite shell. Engines tests are described, noting that the successful repair of a hole demonstrated an important advantage over titanium. The development work now being done to eliminate the titanium end flanges is described, noting that an all-composite duct is in prospect. The savings estimated with a titanium-flanged composite duct are $16,891,000 (1982 dollars) and $35,504,000 (then-year dollars); the savings possible with an all-composite duct are put at $27,025,000 (1982 dollars) and $56,806,000 (then-year dollars).

Pratt, R. D.↗

Definition and preliminary design of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

Cost estimates for phase C/D of the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) program are presented. This information provides a framework for cost, budget, and program planning estimates for LAWS. Volume 3 is divided into three sections. Section 1 details the approach taken to produce the cost figures, including the assumptions regarding the schedule for phase C/D and the methodology and rationale for costing the various work breakdown structure (WBS) elements. Section 2 shows a breakdown of the cost by WBS element, with the cost divided in non-recurring and recurring expenditures. Note that throughout this volume the cost is given in 1990 dollars, with bottom line totals also expressed in 1988 dollars (1 dollar(88) = 0.93 1 dollar(90)). Section 3 shows a breakdown of the cost by year. The WBS and WBS dictionary are included as an attachment to this report.

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The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether they are more likely to spend those dollars, and whether larger levels of reserves lead to higher cost overruns. Finally, we address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects budgeted without any reserves. Is there a "sweet spot"? How can we derive the maximum benefit associated with risk reduction from reserves while minimizing the effects of reserve spending motivation?

Whitley, Sally↗

Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

Buffalano, A. C.↗

The solar power satellite concept - A space program perspective

The Space Shuttle will reduce the cost of transportation to space from thousands of dollars per pound to hundreds of dollars per pound. Studies of future systems indicate that these costs may be further reduced to tens of dollars per pound by using large space freighters, which would be required to build solar power satellites. It is pointed out that the Space Shuttle will provide a versatile tool in the 1980's to support the exploration of the solar power satellite concept as well as other space programs of the future. Three apparently different applications, related to materials processing in space, advanced satellite communications, and solar power satellites, have a number of common requirements. These include the need for large solar power arrays in space and/or the need to construct large systems in space. Consequently, a space program which includes development of the techniques for large power supplies and structural systems provides the basis for selecting and implementing any or all of these promising applications.

Kraft, C. C., Jr.↗

Effects of tunnel and station size on the costs and service of subway transit systems

The feasibility of less spacious, less costly underground rail mass transit system designs is studied. The major cost saving expected from alternative tunnel designs results from using precast concrete segment liners in place of steel. The saying expected for a two-foot decrease in the diameter of twin, single track tunnels is about two million dollars per route mile from 13 million dollars for precast concrete segment liners (a saving of about 16%). The cost per route-mile of a double track tunnel appears to be 15 to 25% higher than for the twin, single track tunnels. The effective cost saving expected from stations with four-car train capability instead of the usual eight-car trains is nearly 25% or seven million dollars per route mile. The saving in station costs can be obtained while improving service to the user (lower transit time and less waiting for trains) up to a capacity of 36,000 riders per hour in each direction.

Dayman, B., Jr.↗

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory low-cost solar array project, 1974-1986

The overall objective of the photovoltaic program is to ensure that photovoltaic conversion systems play a significant role in the nation's energy supply by stimulating an industry capable of providing approximately 50 GWe of installed electricity generating capacity by the year 2000. In order to achieve this overall objective, several time-phased program goals have been defined. Near-term goals are to achieve photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array prices of $2 per peak watt (1975 dollars) at an annual production rate of 20 peak megawatts in 1982. At this price level, energy costs should range from 100 to 200 mills/kwh. Mid-term goals are to achieve photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array prices of $0.50 per peak watt (in 1975 dollars), and an annual production rate of 500 peak megawatts in 1986. Studies project that photovoltaic systems will begin to compete for both distributed and larger load-center utility-type applications and thereby open up significant markets for large-scale photovoltaic systems. Far term goals are to achieve the photovoltaic flat-plate module or concentrator array price goal of $0.10 to $0.30 per peak watt in 1990 (in 1975 dollars), and an annual production rate of 10 to 20 peak gigawatts in 2000. At this price range, energy cost should be in the range of 40 to 60 mills. kwh and be cost effective for utility applications. Achievement of these goals can make photovoltaic systems economically competitive with other energy sources for dispersed on-site applications as well as for central power generation.

Maycock, P. D.↗

An evaluation of contractor projected and actual costs

GSFC contractors with cost-plus contracts provide cost estimates for each of the next four quarters on a quarterly basis. Actual expenditures over a two-year period were compared to the estimates, and the data were sorted in different ways to answer several questions and give quantification to observations, such as how much does the accuracy of estimates degrade as they are made further into the future? Are estimates made for small dollar amounts more accurate than for large dollar estimates? Other government agencies and private companies with cost-plus contracts may be interested in this analysis as potential methods of contract management for their organizations. It provides them with the different methods one organization is beginning to use to control costs.

Kwiatkowski, K. A.↗