Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Device Failure Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Reliability assessment of multiple quantum well avalanche photodiodes

The reliability of doped-barrier AlGaAs/GsAs multi-quantum well avalanche photodiodes fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy is investigated via accelerated life tests. Dark current and breakdown voltage were the parameters monitored. The activation energy of the degradation mechanism and median device lifetime were determined. Device failure probability as a function of time was computed using the lognormal model. Analysis using the electron beam induced current method revealed the degradation to be caused by ionic impurities or contamination in the passivation layer.

Yun, Ilgu↗

New Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

Variability of the space radiation environment is investigated with regard to total dose specification for spacecraft electronics. It is shown to have a significant impact. A new approach is developed for total dose requirements that replaces the radiation design margin concept with failure probability during a mission.

Device Failure Probability↗

Confidence Level Based Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

A confidence level based approach to total dose radiation hardness assurance is presented for spacecraft electronics. It is applicable to both ionizing and displacement damage dose. Results are compared to the traditional approach that uses radiation design margin and advantages of the new approach are discussed.

Total Dose Distributions in Space↗

A Confidence-Based Approach to Including Survivors in a Probabilistic TID Failure Assessment

A probabilistic total ionizing dose (TID) failure assessment is extended to include survivor data, enabling the bounding of failure probability to a desired confidence level (CL) without failure data. The extension provides an avenue for analyzing microelectronics tested for TID without reaching a failure mode, a scenario often encountered by missions utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. Using the type-I censored likelihood formulation and a realistic upper bound on expected device performance, the failure probability space is bounded by confidence contours within the context of a variable environment. The framework accommodates any type of distribution assumed for the part failure or the environment under consideration. Furthermore, the framework can be utilized pre-emptively to plan future device TID tests, minimizing costs while meeting survival requirements. Heritage data may also be used as survivors to further minimize testing costs when parts are from the same lot, but the amount of constraint derived from heritage is limited. Altogether, the framework enables a formal, mathematically rigorous analysis of radiation tolerant devices tested to a maximum dose, as well as flight heritage, in a hardness assurance methodology.

confidence↗

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

Accelerated battery-life testing - A concept

Test program, employing empirical, statistical and physical methods, determines service life and failure probabilities of electrochemical cells and batteries, and is applicable to testing mechanical, electrical, and chemical devices. Data obtained aids long-term performance prediction of battery or cell.

Mccallum, J.↗

Inadvertently programmed bits in Samsung 128 Mbit flash devices: a flaky investigation

JPL's X2000 avionics design pioneers new territory by specifying a non-volatile memory (NVM) board based on flash memories. The Samsung 128Mb device chosen was found to demonstrate bit errors (mostly program disturbs) and block-erase failures that increase with cycling. Low temperature, certain pseudo- random patterns, and, probably, higher bias increase the observable bit errors. An experiment was conducted to determine the wearout dependence of the bit errors to 100k cycles at cold temperature using flight-lot devices (some pre-irradiated). The results show an exponential growth rate, a wide part-to-part variation, and some annealing behavior.

flash memory program disturb wearout erase fail re↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Frame synchronization for a channel with different data rates

In some communication links, different data rates are used at different times on the same channel and each is assigned a separate frame synchronization (sync) marker. The frame search is completed within a finite number of frame intervals once both phase-lock and bit-sync are achieved because the incoming data rate can change. The probability of failure to frame-lock, and an upper bound of probability of false frame-lock in a frame search mode are derived for a communication link with a 10 to the -5th bit error probability. The probability of failure to detect data-rate change and the probability of false detection of data-rate change in a frame-lock mode are discussed. In a frame-lock mode, the probability of failure to detect data-rate change and probability detection of data-rate change an equal to 4.96 x 10 to the -12th. A frame-lock device can be used for the Space Station Freedom Ku-band return link.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗

A study of the comparative performance of six lightning warning systems

An analysis of mining explosive accident reports indicates a need for clear and ample warning of approaching electrical storms to reduce injuries/fatalities due to lightning induced premature detonation. Six lightning warning devices were comparatively evaluated at three test sites. The devices tested were: (1) flash counter, (2) corona point, (3) radioactive probe, (4) field mill, (5) azimuth/range locator, and (6) triangulation locator. The test sites were chosen to provide system evaluation under varied thunderstorm conditions. The devices were tested at San Antonio, Texas, Kennedy Space Center, Florida and Langmuir Laboratory, New Mexico. Comparative performance is reviewed in terms of alarm reliability, false alarm, and failure to alarm probabilities. Lightning warning system requirements and methods of relating warning criteria to explosive hazard are discussed.

Johnson, R. L.↗

Scanning microscopy in microcircuit failure analysis

A three-phase microcircuit failure analysis procedure is presented. In the first phase, the device is nondestructively tested and the data obtained is correlated with the circumstances surrounding the failure event. The device is then subjected to a limited nondestructive analysis dominated by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Knowing that microcircuits usually fail from manufacturing defects or misuse, the analyst looks for one of the probable mechanisms. The SEM has two special operating modes that provide unique data for nondestructive analysis: voltage contrast and conductive current. These are used with other SEM modes and surface analysis techniques to analyze complicated microcircuits. The last phase includes the destructive procedures. The end product of these analyses is a corrective action that will yield a highly reliable system.

Nicolas, D. P.↗

Radiation Testing Electronics with Heavy Ions-The Best Way to Hit a Target Moving Ever Exponentially Faster

In 1972, when engineers at Hughes Aircraft Corporation discovered that errors in their satellite avionics were being caused by cosmic rays (so-called single-event effects, or SEE), Moore's Law was only 7 years old. Now, more than 45 years on, the scaling that drove Moore's Law for its first 35 years has reached its limits. However, electronics technology continues to evolve exponentially and SEE remain a formidable issue for use of electronics in space. SEE occur when a single ionizing particle passes through a sensitive volume in an active semiconductor device and generates sufficient charge to cause anomalous behavior or failure in the device. Because SEE can occur at any time during the mission, the emphasis of SEE risk management methodologies is ensuring that all SEE modes in a device under test are detected by the test. Because a particle's probability of causing an SEE generally increases as the particle becomes more ionizing, heavy-ion beams have been and remain the preferred tools for elucidating SEE vulnerabilities. In this talk we briefly discuss space radiation environments and SEE mechanisms, describe SEE test methodologies and discuss current and future challenges for use of heavy-ion beams for SEE testing in an era when the continued validity of Moore's law depends on innovation rather than CMOS scaling.

space radiation environments↗

Fracture Probability of MEMS Optical Devices for Space Flight Applications

A bending fracture test specimen design is presented for thin elements used in optical devices for space flight applications. The specimen design is insensitive to load position, avoids end effect complications, and can be used to measure strength of membranes less than 2 microns thick. The theoretical equations predicting stress at failure are presented, and a detailed finite element model is developed to validate the equations for this application. An experimental procedure using a focused ion beam machine is outlined, and results from preliminary tests of 1.9 microns thick single crystal silicon are presented. These tests are placed in the context of a methodology for the design and evaluation of mission critical devices comprised of large arrays of cells.

Fettig, Rainer K.↗

A Program to Detect and Characterize Extra-Solar Giant Planets

We initiated a significant hardware upgrade to the AFOE, to increase its efficiency for precise radial velocity studies to the level where we can continue to contribute usefully to extrasolar planet research on relatively bright stars. The AFOE, at a 1.5-m telescope, will of course not have the sensitivity of radial velocity instruments at larger telescopes, such as the HIRES on Keck or the Hectochelle on the MMT telescope (about to come on line). However, it has been possible to increase its efficiency for precise radial velocity studies by a factor of 4 to 5, which-combined with the large amount of telescope time available at the 1.5-m telescope-will permit us to do intensive follow-up observations of stars brighter than about 8 magnitude. The AFOE was originally designed primarily for asteroseismology using a ThAr reference. This provided useful wavelength stability over tens of minutes as required for asteroseismology, but we were unable to get a long-term (month-to-month) velocity precision better than about 15 m/s with that setup. Hence, we implemented an iodine cell as a wavelength reference for extrasolar planet studies. However, the optical design of the original AFOE did not completely span the wavelength range covered by the iodine absorption spectrum, and furthermore the optics suffered significant light loss through optical obscuration in the camera secondary. To remedy this, we replaced the AFOE grating with a new one that covered the entire iodine spectral range at somewhat lower spectral resolution, and replaced the camera with a transmitting lens. (The use of a lens was made possible by restricting the spectral range covered by the upgraded AFOE to only the iodine region.) These upgrades were successfully completed, and the instrument was tested for three nights in fall of 2002. The expected improvement in sensitivity by a factor of 4 to 5 was observed: that is, the same velocity precision as previously attained (of order 5 to 7 m/s) was now obtained on a stars that are about 4 to 5 times fainter. Unfortunately, just after installing the new AFOE optics, there was a catastrophic failure of the old Tektronix CCD. A careful investigation was made, and it was determined that the failure was probably due to too many thermal cyclings over the previous 8 years. The only solution was to purchase a new CCD. Internal funds of $16,000 were found for this purpose, and the new CCD (a thinned, back-illuminated Marconi 2K x 2K device with 13.5 micron pixels, and employing dual readout channels to keep the readout time as short as 20 seconds) was ordered, has now arrived, and is currently under test before 1 being installed in the AFOE liquid nitrogen dewar. At the same time, we expect to implement new CCD control electronics. This system should be better in many ways than the previous detector (including eliminating the need for UV flashing to maximize the quantum efficiency). We plan to install the detector on the telescope and begin operations again in April of this year.

Lindstrom, David↗

AXAF Hypervelocity Impact Test Results

Composite and honeycomb panels are commonly used for spacecraft structural components. The impact test results and analysis of six different composite and honeycomb combinations for use on the advanced X-ray astrophysics facility (AXAF) are reported. The AXAF consists of an X-ray telescope and the associated detecting devices attached to an octagonal spacecraft with an internal propulsion system. The spacecraft's structural panels and optical bench are made of two different graphite fiber reinforced polyimides or composite panels bonded to either side of an aluminum honeycomb. The instrument is required to have at least a 0.92 probability of no failure of any of the critical elements due to meteoroids and debris. In relation to the no-failure probability determination in its low earth orbit environment, hypervelocity impact testing was performed to determine the ballistic limit range and the extent of damage due to impact. The test results for a power and signal cable bundle located behind a panel are presented. Tests planned for a multilayer insulation (MLI) blanket and four types of cable bundles are discussed.

Cynthia L Frost↗